NWP and AMMA case studies J.-P. Lafore , F. Beucher, F. Pouponneau, F. Rabier, C. Faccani, N. Fourrié, F. Karbou, P. Moll, M. Nuret, J-L Redelsperger, J. Stein CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France With thanks to: A. Agusti-Panareda, P. Bauer (ECMWF, Reading), O. Bock, P. Drobinski (IPSL/LMD and LATMOS, France), G. Berry, C. Thorncroft (SUNNY, US), W. Thiaw (NCEP, US), J. Heming (UKMET), R.D. Torn (NCAR, U. New York), J-B Ngamini (ASECNA, Senegal), Z. Mumba (ACMAD, Niger)… WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
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NWP and AMMA case studies J.-P. Lafore, F. Beucher, F. Pouponneau, F. Rabier, C. Faccani, N. Fourrié, F. Karbou, P. Moll, M. Nuret, J-L Redelsperger, J.
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NWP and AMMA case studies
J.-P. Lafore, F. Beucher, F. Pouponneau, F. Rabier, C. Faccani, N. Fourrié,
F. Karbou, P. Moll, M. Nuret, J-L Redelsperger, J. Stein
CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France
With thanks to:
A. Agusti-Panareda, P. Bauer (ECMWF, Reading), O. Bock, P. Drobinski
(IPSL/LMD and LATMOS, France), G. Berry, C. Thorncroft (SUNNY, US), W. Thiaw (NCEP, US), J. Heming (UKMET), R.D. Torn (NCAR, U. New York), J-B
Ngamini (ASECNA, Senegal), Z. Mumba (ACMAD, Niger)…
WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008
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1. Some NWP Scores Extra-Tropics (1/3)
1980 1990 2000 2010
Always in progress!Reduction of dispersion
Europe Atlantic domain
Geopotential Z - RMS (m) @ 500 hPa
Range
évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008
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1. Scores for Tropics: wind field V (2/3)
2000 20051995 2010
72h
• Wind intensity is a more pertinent variable in the Tropics• Its RMS @72h is large ~5 m/s 850 hPa) and increases with altitude (~8 m/s 250 hPa) • Dispersion between models is ~1 to 2 m/s (850 to 250 hPa)• Progresses are slow!
Tropiques/RS (55) RMS of V (m/s) @ 250-850 hPa @ 72h range (1995-2010) range 1 to 10 days
V850
V250
• Wind RMS error against TEMP observations increases fast with the forecast range at the same rate for all models
V250
V85072h
évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008
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EUMETSAT (28-30 June 2011)WMO RAI Dissemination Expert Group 2nd Meeting
1. African Eaterly Waves scores for 4 NWPs in 2007 (3/3)Correlation coefficients as fct of the range of 700 hPa curvature vorticity
Private communication by Gareth Berry et al. 2008
• Weak forecast skill for AEWs ( 2 days)• Large dispersion between models for the Wave-Convection link and the variability
at 3 longitudes
évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008
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2. AMMA opportunity (1/7)
AMMA-1 International project 2002-2012 (Redelsperger et al. 2006) http://amma-international.org/
AMMA legacy:– Better understanding of the West African Monsoon
– Observations of the WAM: improvement of the operational observation network (soundings…), GPS, driftsondes, surface conditions, satellite, research observations (lidar, radar, aircraft…)
opportunity to evaluate NWP models
and the impact of observations
30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (15-20 April 2012)
Analysis at different scales (link with the ISV) Predictability
– Wave-convection link– Coupling with the surface
30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (15-20 April 2012)
WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008
17
Some References
Agustí-Panareda A, Beljaars A, Cardinali C, Genkova I, Thorncroft C. 2010a. Impact of assimilating AMMA soundings on ECMWF analyses and forecasts. Wea.Forecasting 25: 1142–1160. doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222370.1.
Andreas H. Fink et al., 2011: “Operational meteorology: observational networks, weather analysis and forecasting”. Atmospheric Science Letters, Volume : 12, Issue : 1, Special Issue : Sp. Iss. SI, Pages : 135-141. Doi : 10.1002/asl.324
Faccani C, Rabier F, Fourri´e N, Agust´ı-Panareda A, Karbou F, Moll P, Lafore JP, Nuret M, Hdidou FZ, Bock O. 2009. The impact of the AMMA radiosonde data on the French global assimilation and forecast system. Weather and Forecasting 24: 1268–1286.
Karbou F, Rabier F, Lafore JP, Redelsperger JL, Bock O. 2010b. Global 4D-Var assimilation and forecast experiments using AMSU observations over land. Part II: impact of assimilating surface sensitive channels on the African Monsoon during AMMA. Weather and Forecasting 25: 20–36.
Redelsperger J-L, Thorncroft CD, Diedhiou A, Lebel T, Parker DJ, Polcher J. 2006. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis: An international research project and field campaign. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87: 1739–1746.
Torn R. D. 2010: Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis Applied to African Easterly Waves.. Weather and Forecasting 25: 20–61-78. doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222255.1
30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (15-20 April 2012)
WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland