1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Raimo P. Hämäläinen Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology www.raimo.hut.fi JMCDA, Vol. 12 , No. 2-3, 2003, pp. 101-110. Aiding Decisions, Negotiating and Collecting Opinions on the Web www.decisionarium.hut .fi D E C I S I O N A R I U M v. 3.2006
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Raimo P. HämäläinenSystems Analysis Laboratory
Helsinki University of Technologywww.raimo.hut.fi
JMCDA, Vol. 12 , No. 2-3, 2003, pp. 101-110.
Aiding Decisions, Negotiating and Collecting Opinions on the Web
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
selected publications J. Mustajoki, R.P. Hämäläinen and A. Salo: Decision support by interval SMART/SWING – Incorporating
imprecision in the SMART and SWING methods, Decision Sciences, 2005.H. Ehtamo, R.P. Hämäläinen and V. Koskinen: An e-learning module on negotiation analysis, Proc. of HICSS-37, 2004.
J. Mustajoki and R.P. Hämäläinen, Making the even swaps method even easier, Manuscript, 2004. R.P. Hämäläinen, Decisionarium - Aiding decisions, negotiating and collecting opinions on the Web, J. Multi-Crit. Dec. Anal., 2003.
H. Ehtamo, E. Kettunen and R.P. Hämäläinen: Searching for joint gains in multi-party negotiations, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 2001. J. Gustafsson, A. Salo and T. Gustafsson: PRIME Decisions - An interactive tool for value tree
analysis, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 2001.J. Mustajoki and R.P. Hämäläinen: Web-HIPRE - Global decision support by value tree and AHP analysis, INFOR, 2000.
D E C I S I O N A R I U M
PRIME DecisionsWINPRE
web-sites www.decisionarium.hut.fi www.dm.hut.fi
www.hipre.hut.fi www.jointgains.hut.fi www.opinions.hut.fi www.smart-swaps.hut.fi www.rich.hut.fiPRIME Decisions and WINPRE downloadable at www.sal.hut.fi/Downloadables
Web-HIPREvalue tree and AHP based decision support
Smart-Swaps
Opinions-Online platform for global participation, voting, surveys, and group decisions
Joint Gains
groupcollaboration decision
making
computer support
CSCW
multicriteriadecision analysis
internet
groupdecision making
GDSS, NSS
DSS
multi-party negotiation support with the method of improving directions
Windows software for decision analysis with imprecise ratio statements
g l o b a l s p a c e f o r d e c i s i o n s u p p o r t
elimination of criteria and alternatives by even swaps
preference programming, PAIRS
Updated 25.10.2004
SystemsAnalysis Laboratory
RICH Decisionsrank inclusion in criteria
hierarchies
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Mission of Decisionarium
Provide resources for decision and negotiation support and advance the real and correct use of MCDA
History: HIPRE 3+ in 1992 MAVT/AHP for DOS systems
Today: e-learning modules provide help to learn the methods and global access to the software also for non OR/MS people
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Opinions-Online (www.opinions.hut.fi)• Platform for global participation, voting, surveys, and group
decisions
Web-HIPRE (www.hipre.hut.fi)• Value tree based decision analysis and support
WINPRE and PRIME Decisions (for Windows)• Interval AHP, interval SMART/SWING and PRIME methods
RICH Decisions (www.rich.hut.fi)• Preference programming in MAVT
Smart-Swaps (www.smart-swaps.hut.fi)• Multicriteria decision support with the even swaps method
Joint Gains (www.jointgains.hut.fi)• Negotiation support with the method of improving directions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
• Possibility to compare different weighting and rating methods
• AHP/MAVT and different scales• Preference programming in MAVT and
in the Even Swaps procedure• Jointly improving direction method for
negotiations
New Methodological Features
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
SAL eLearning sites:
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis www.mcda.hut.fiDecision Making Under UncertaintyNegotiation Analysis www.negotiation.hut.fi
eLearning Decision Makingwww.dm.hut.fi
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Opinions-Online Platform for Global Participation, Voting,
Surveys and Group Decisions
Design: Raimo P. HämäläinenProgramming: Reijo Kalenius
www.opinions.hut.fiwww.opinions-online.com
Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
http://www.sal.hut.fi
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Surveys on the web
• Fast, easy and cheap• Hyperlinks to background information• Easy access to results• Results can be analyzed on-line• Access control: registration, e-mail list,
domain, password
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Creating a new session
• Browser-based generation of new sessions
• Fast and simple• Templates available
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Literature
Mustajoki, J. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Web-HIPRE: Global decision support by value tree and AHP analysis, INFOR, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2000, pp. 208-220.
Hämäläinen, R.P.: Reversing the perspective on the applications of decision analysis, Decision Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 26-31.
Mustajoki, J., Hämäläinen, R.P. and Marttunen, M.: Participatory multicriteria decision support with Web-HIPRE: A case of lake regulation policy. Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 19, No. 6, 2004, pp. 537-547.
Pöyhönen, M. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: There is hope in attribute weighting, INFOR, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2000, pp. 272-282.
Pöyhönen, M. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: On the Convergence of Multiattribute Weighting Methods, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 129, No. 3, 2001, pp. 569-585.
Pöyhönen, M., Vrolijk, H.C.J. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Behavioral and Procedural Consequences of Structural Variation in Value Trees, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 134, No. 1, 2001, pp. 218-227.
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
New Theory: Preference programming Analysis with incomplete preference
statements (intervals):”...attribute is at least 2 times as but no
more than 3 times as important as...”Windows software• WINPRE – Workbench for Interactive Preference Programming Interval AHP, interval SMART/SWING and PAIRS• PRIME-Preference Ratios in Multiattribute Evaluation Method Incomplete preference statements Web software• RICH Decisions – Rank Inclusion in Criteria Hierarchies
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Feasible region for the weights– Alternatives’ ratings (e.g. 0.6 v1(x1) 0.8)
Intervals for the overall values– Lower bound for the overall value of x:
– Upper bound correspondingly
n
iiii xvwxv
1
)(min)(
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2
1
2
61
31
21
C
B
C
A
B
A
ww
wwww
Interval statements define a feasible region S for the weights
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Uses of interval modelsNew generalized AHP and SMART/SWING methodsDM can also reply with intervals instead of exact point
estimates – a new way to accommodate uncertaintyInterval sensitivity analysisVariations allowed in several model parameters
simultaneously - worst case analysisGroup decision makingAll members´ opinions embedded in intervals =
a joint common group model
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Interval SMART/SWING• A as reference - A given 10 points• Point intervals given to the other attributes:
– 5-20 points to attribute B– 10-30 points to attribute C
• Weight ratio between B and C not explicitly given by the DM
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WINPRE Software
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PRIME Decisions Software
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Literature – MethodologySalo, A. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Preference assessment by imprecise ratio
statements, Operations Research, Vol. 40, No. 6, 1992, pp. 1053-1061.Salo, A. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Preference programming through approximate
ratio comparisons, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 82, No. 3, 1995, pp. 458-475.
Salo, A. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Preference ratios in multiattribute evaluation (PRIME) – Elicitation and decision procedures under incomplete information, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics – Part A: Systems and Humans, Vol. 31, No. 6, 2001, pp. 533-545.
Salo, A. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Preference Programming. (Manuscript) Downloadable at http://www.sal.hut.fi/Publications/pdf-files/msal03b.pdf
Mustajoki, J., Hämäläinen, R.P. and Salo, A.: Decision Support by Interval SMART/SWING - Incorporating Imprecision in the SMART and SWING Methods, Decision Sciences, Vol. 36, No.2, 2005, pp. 317-339.
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Literature – Tools and applicationsGustafsson, J., Salo, A. and Gustafsson, T.: PRIME Decisions - An Interactive
Tool for Value Tree Analysis, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, M. Köksalan and S. Zionts (eds.), 507, 2001, pp. 165-176.
Hämäläinen, R.P., Salo, A. and Pöysti, K.: Observations about consensus seeking in a multiple criteria environment, Proc. of the Twenty-Fifth Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences, Hawaii, Vol. IV, January 1992, pp. 190-198.
Hämäläinen, R.P. and Pöyhönen, M.: On-line group decision support by preference programming in traffic planning, Group Decision and Negotiation, Vol. 5, 1996, pp. 485-500.
Liesiö, J., Mild, P. and Salo, A.: Preference Programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and Project Selection, European Journal of Operational Research (to appear)
Mustajoki, J., Hämäläinen, R.P. and Lindstedt, M.R.K.: Using intervals for Global Sensitivity and Worst Case Analyses in Multiattribute Value Trees, European Journal of Operational Research. (to appear)
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
RICH Decisions
www.rich.hut.fi
Design: Ahti Salo and Antti PunkkaProgramming: Juuso Liesiö
Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
http://www.sal.hut.fi
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
The RICH Method
Based on:Incomplete ordinal information about the
relative importance of attributes• ”environmental aspects belongs to the
three most important attributes” or • ”either cost or environmental aspects is
the most important attribute”
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Score Elicitation
• Upper and lower bounds for the scores
• Type or use the scroll bar
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
The user specifies sets of attributes and corresponding sets of rankings.
Here attributes distance to harbour and distance to office are the two most important ones.
The table displays the possible rankings.
Weight Elicitation
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Dominance Structure and Decision Rules
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
LiteratureSalo, A. and Punkka, A.: Rank Inclusion in Criteria Hierarchies, European
Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 163, No. 2, 2005, pp. 338-356.Salo, A. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Preference ratios in multiattribute evaluation
(PRIME) – Elicitation and decision procedures under incomplete information, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics – Part A: Systems and Humans, Vol. 31, No. 6, 2001, pp. 533-545.
Salo A. and Hämäläinen, R.P.: Preference Programming. (manuscript)Ojanen, O., Makkonen, S. and Salo, A.: A Multi-Criteria Framework for the
Selection of Risk Analysis Methods at Energy Utilities. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2005, pp. 16-35.
Punkka, A. and Salo, A.: RICHER: Preference Programming with Incomplete Ordinal Information. (submitted manuscript)
Salo, A. and Liesiö, J.: A Case Study in Participatory Priority-Setting for a Scandinavian Research Program, International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making. (to appear)
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Smart-Swaps Smart Choices with the Even Swaps Method
Design: Raimo P. Hämäläinen and Jyri MustajokiProgramming: Pauli Alanaatu
www.smart-swaps.hut.fi
Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
http://www.sal.hut.fi
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Smart Choices
• An iterative process to support multicriteria decision making
• Uses the even swaps method to make trade-offs
(Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, 1999)
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Even Swaps• Carry out even swaps that make
Alternatives dominated (attribute-wise)• There is another alternative, which is equal or better than
this in every attribute, and better at least in one attribute
Attributes irrelevant• Each alternative has the same value on this attribute
These can be eliminated• Process continues until one alternative, i.e. the
best one, remains
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Supporting Even Swaps with Preference Programming
• Even Swaps process carried out as usual• The DM’s preferences simultaneously modeled
with Preference Programming– Intervals allow us to deal with incomplete
information – Trade-off information given in the even swaps can
be used to update the model
Suggestions for the Even Swaps process
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Decision support
Problem initialization
Updating of
the model
Make an even swap
Even Swaps Preference Programming
Practical dominance candidates
Initial statements about the attributes
Eliminate irrelevant attributes
Eliminate dominated alternatives
Even swap suggestions
More than oneremaining alternative
Yes
The most preferred alternative is found
No
Trade-off information
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
• Identification of practical dominances• Suggestions for the next even swap to be
made• Additional support
Information about what can be achieved with each swap
Notification of dominancesRankings indicated by coloursProcess history allows backtracking
Smart-Swaps
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Example• Office selection problem (Hammond et al. 1999)
Dominatedby
Lombard
Practicallydominated
byMontana
(Slightly better in Monthly Cost, but equal or worse in all other attributes)
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25
An even swap
Commute time removed as irrelevant
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Problem definition
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Entering trade-offs
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Process history
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Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H., 1998. Even swaps: A rational method for making trade-offs, Harvard Business Review, 76(2), 137-149.
Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H., 1999. Smart choices. A practical guide to making better decisions, Harvard Business School Press, Boston.
Mustajoki, J. Hämäläinen, R.P., 2005. A Preference Programming Approach to Make the Even Swaps Method Even Easier, Decision Analysis, 2(2), 110-123.
Salo, A., Hämäläinen, R.P., 1992. Preference assessment by imprecise ratio statements, Operations Research, 40(6), 1053-1061.
Applications of Even Swaps:Gregory, R., Wellman, K., 2001. Bringing stakeholder values into environmental
policy choices: a community-based estuary case study, Ecological Economics, 39, 37-52.
Kajanus, M., Ahola, J., Kurttila, M., Pesonen, M., 2001. Application of even swaps for strategy selection in a rural enterprise, Management Decision, 39(5), 394-402.
Literature
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Joint-Gains Negotiation Support in the Internet
Eero Kettunen, Raimo P. Hämäläinenand Harri Ehtamo
www.jointgains.hut.fi
Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
http://www.sal.hut.fi
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Method of Improving DirectionsEhtamo, Kettunen, and
Hämäläinen (2002)
• Interactive method for reaching efficient alternatives
• Search of joint gains from a given initial alternative • In the mediation process participants are given
simple comparison tasks:“Which one of these two alternatives do you prefer, alternative A or B?”
Efficient frontier
..
..
Utility of DM 1
Utilit
y of
DM
2
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Mediation Process Tasks in Preference Identification
• Initial alternative considered as “current alternative”
• Task 1 for identifying participants’ most preferred directions
• Joint Gains calculates a jointly improving direction
• Task 2 for identifying participants’ most preferred alternatives in the jointly improving direction
series of pairwise series of pairwise comparisonscomparisons
series of pairwise comparisonsseries of pairwise comparisons
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Joint Gains Negotiation
• User can create his own case
• 2 to N participants (negotiating parties, DM’s)
• 2 to M continuous decision variables
• Linear inequality constraints
• Participants distributed in the web
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
DM’s Utility Functions• DM’s reply holistically
• No explicit assessment of utility functions
• Joint Gains only calls for local preference information
• Post-settlement setting in the neighbourhood of the current alternative
• Joint Gains allows learning and change of preferences during the process
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Creating a case: Criteria to provide optional decision aiding
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Sessions
• Sessions produce efficient alternatives
• Case administrator can start new sessions on-line and define new initial starting points
• Sessions can be parallel• Each session has an independent
mediation process
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Joint Gains - Business
Session n
...
• Participants take part in sessions within the case
efficient point
efficient point
efficient point
efficient point
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Preference identification task 2
Not started
Preference identification task 1
JOINT GAIN?
Stopped
New comparison task is given after all participants have completed the first one
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Session view - joint gains after two steps
unit_price
10
20
30
1 2 3
amount
406080
100
1 2 3
delivery
10
20
30
1 2 3
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LiteratureEhtamo, H., M. Verkama, and R.P. Hämäläinen (1999). How to select Fair
Improving Directions in a negotiation Model over Continuous Issues, IEEE Trans. On Syst., Man, and Cybern. – Part C, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 26-33.
Ehtamo, H., E. Kettunen, and R. P. Hämäläinen (2001). Searching for Joint Gains in Multi-Party Negotiations, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 130, No. 1, pp. 54-69.
Hämäläinen, H., E. Kettunen, M. Marttunen, and H. Ehtamo (2001). Evaluating a Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision Support in Water Resources Management, Group Decision and Negotiation, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 331-353.
Ehtamo, H., R.P. Hämäläinen, and V. Koskinen (2004). An E-learning Module on Negotiation Analysis, Proc. of the Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE Computer Society Press, Hawaii, January 5-8.
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Negotiation Analysis
Prof. Raimo P. HämäläinenSystems Analysis Laboratory
Helsinki University of Technologyhttp://www.sal.hut.fi
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
eLearning sitesMaterial:• Theory sections, interactive computer assignments• Animations and video clips, online quizzes, theory assignments
Decisionarium software:• Web-HIPRE, PRIME Decisions, Opinions-Online.vote, and Joint Gains, video clips help the use
eLearning modules: • 4 - 6 hours study time• Instructors can create their own modules using the material and software• Academic non-profit use is free
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Learning paths and modules Learning path: guided route through the learning material Learning module: represents 2-4 h of traditional lectures and exercises
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Evaluation
Cases
AssignmentsTheory
Intro
Theoreticalfoundations
Problemstructuring
Preferenceelicitation
Family selecting a car
Job selection case• basics of value tree analysis• how to use Web-HIPRE
Car selection case• imprecise preference statements, interval value trees• basics of Prime Decisions software
Family selecting a car• group decision-making with Web-HIPRE• weighted arithmetic mean method
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Video clips
VideosWorking with Web-HIPREStructuring a value tree Entering consequences of ...Assessing the form of value...Direct rating SMARTSMARTSWINGAHPViewing the resultsSensitivity analysisGroup decision makingPRIME method
AssignmentsTheory Cases QuizzesLearningPaths
Videos
• Recorded software use with voice explanations (1-4 min)
• Screen capturing with Camtasia
• AVI format for video players– e.g. Windows Media Player,
RealPlayer• GIF format for common
browsers - no sound
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Theory VideosCases QuizzesLearningPaths
Assignments
Report templates• detailed instructions in a word document• to be returned in printed format
testing the knowledge on the subject, learning by doing, individual and group reports
Software use• value tree analysis and group decisions with Web-HIPRE
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Academic Test Use is Free !Opinions-Online (www.opinions.hut.fi)Commercial site and pricing: www.opinions-online.com
Web-HIPRE (www.hipre.hut.fi)
WINPRE and PRIME Decisions (Windows)
RICH Decisions (www.rich.hut.fi)
Joint Gains (www.jointgains.hut.fi)
Smart-Swaps (www.smart-swaps.hut.fi)
Please, let us know your experiences.
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Contributions of colleagues andstudents at SAL
• HIPRE 3 +: Hannu Lauri• Web-HIPRE: Jyri Mustajoki, Ville Likitalo, Sami Nousiainen• Joint Gains: Eero Kettunen, Harri Jäälinoja, Tero Karttunen, Sampo
Vuorinen• Opinions-Online: Reijo Kalenius, Ville Koskinen Janne Pöllönen• Smart-Swaps: Pauli Alanaatu, Ville Karttunen, Arttu Arstila, Juuso
Nissinen• WINPRE: Jyri Helenius• PRIME Decisions: Janne Gustafsson, Tommi Gustafsson• RICH Decisions: Juuso Liesiö, Antti Punkka• e-learning MCDA: Ville Koskinen, Jaakko Dietrich, Markus Porthin
Thank you!
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Public participation project sites
• PÄIJÄNNE - Lake Regulation(www.paijanne.hut.fi)
• PRIMEREG / Kallavesi - Lake Regulation(www.kallavesi.hut.fi, www.opinion.hut.fi/servlet/tulokset?foldername=syke)