NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University [email protected] Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint.

NHL Shot Probability MapsMichael Schuckers

St. Lawrence [email protected]

Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings

Vancouver, BCAugust 2, 2010

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)


DATA

• Based on all NHL regular season shots 08-09 and 09-10– Excludes penalty shots, empty net shots,

shootouts• Spatial mapping of probability of a goal • Offensive Zone: Blue line to Goal line– [Blue line at left, Goal at Right]


League Average (Darker is higher)

Blue Line Goal Line

GO

AL


Goal probability maps

• Maps are differences from league-wide average probability of a goal at a given location– Red above average (Good for shooters)– Blue below average (Good for goalies)– White is league average


Difference from League Averagefor each of the 5 holes/zones


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


Forwards

Red is above average (GOOD)Blue is below average (BAD)


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


Goalies

Red is above average (BAD)Blue is below average (GOOD)


Martin Broudeur – Goalie – New Jersey DevilsG

OAL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


GO

AL


Shot Prob in Offensive Zone( A. Niemi )

-20

0

20

40 50 60 70 80

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

GO

AL

NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University [email protected] Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint.

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