Newtok, Alaska

Newtok, AlaskaThe Effects of Climate Change on One Alaskan Village

Compiled by Chris Zerr

GIS 290 – July 23, 2015

Project Statement

Newtok is only one of many towns in Alaska that are being forced to relocate because of increasing temperatures in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region.

My plan for this project was to study Newtok, Alaska and the disintegration of the land beneath the town caused by changes in our climate. I wanted to track temperature increases for the area and the erosion of the island over time. I, also, wanted make a study of the new site for the town to see if it will be more sustainable than the current location.

The Study Area: Newtok and Mertarvik, AK

Some Background The Qaluyaarmiut, or “dip net people” are the people who inhabit Newtok

and Nelson Island, while the group specific to Newtok are known as the Yup’ik.

These people, like most native Alaskan peoples, were migratory in their lifestyles, following the fish and game upon which they depended for food and trade.

In the 1950’s, the Alaskan government decided all children needed to attend school. After some debate, Newtok was chosen as the site for the Yup’ik school which was then built in 1958.

Despite having the school, the Yup’ik were still somewhat migratory using the area surrounding the school as a winter camp.

During the 1970’s an airstrip, clinic, and modern housing provided by HUD were completed bringing the migratory lifestyle of the Yup’ik to an end.

Newtok is located within the boundaries of the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge on the soggy, lowland plain of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, which is one of the largest river deltas in the world. This entire region is dotted with small rivers, sloughs, ponds, and lakes.

Gathering Data: Maps

The first place I looked was at the US Census Bureau for TIGER line files showing places, and hoping to find some historical data. I found line files for US Places dating back to 1980 and a link to a site that should have had more historical data. When I followed that link there was a page stating the site had been removed.

The next site I found was http://www.alaskamapped.org/ortho, but their images did not include Newtok nor Mertarvik.

I tried to find some free DEM’s or DRG’s of the area from GeoComm, which is a site I have used extensively in the past, but none of the Alaska data was free and I could not afford to purchase their data.

From WeoGeo, the Trimble Data Marketplace, I was able to find Topo Quads in GeoTiff format.

At http://satellite.somemaps.com/ I found satellite images that I could download, but, as it turned out, the images were from Google and could only be downloaded as non-georeferenced .png files.

Gathering Data: Weather Data and Other Documents

The primary data I wanted to gather was historical weather data as a means to track temperature changes. I found data at the NOAA.gov, but could not find the key piece for which I was looking: Number of days per year when the temperature was above freezing. I was able to find data on the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures from 1925 to 2014 for the Bethel weather station, which is 97 miles East of Newtok. There was no data for Newtok proper.

Continuing my search for data on Newtok, I found the Newtok Planning Group page which is part of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, Community and Regional Affairs site: Planning and Land Management. This site had many of the charts and maps that I was looking for, but no raw data with which to work, and no actual weather data.

On the Newtok Planning Group page I found Sally Russell Cox, Division of Community and Regional Affairs, Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development listed as the person to contact for more information. Upon initial contact, she seemed interested in my project, but did not reply when I requested raw data for my project.

Working with the data

The first data with which I elected to work was the WestCoastMonthlyHistorical.txt file, which was a comma delimited file showing average precipitation, monthly mean temperatures, monthly low temps and monthly high temps. Unhappy with my first attempt to work with this data, I started over. My first attempt to make a chart showing the monthly data failed because Excel is limited to working with only 255 data points. To make the data easier to work with, I copied it and placed the information from each decade on a separate worksheet, then placed blank lines between the years, color coded the temperature ranges, and created averages for each of the different data types.

StateCodeDivision YearMonth PCP TAVG TMIN TMAX50 2 1925/01 0.39 -11.1 -18.5 -3.650 2 1925/02 0.36 -4.7 -12.3 2.950 2 1925/03 1.52 10.7 3 18.450 2 1925/04 0.61 21.1 12.9 29.350 2 1925/05 0.86 37.2 28.5 45.950 2 1925/06 1.31 49.4 39.3 59.450 2 1925/07 2.51 53.3 43.6 62.950 2 1925/08 2.44 53 43.8 62.250 2 1925/09 5.38 44.4 39.3 49.450 2 1925/10 2.67 35.2 30.5 4050 2 1925/11 1.8 16.1 10.9 21.450 2 1925/12 0.86 1.2 -6.2 8.6

1.725833 25.48333 17.9 33.06667

50 2 1926/01 1.08 11.9 6.1 17.750 2 1926/02 0.16 -0.6 -6.8 5.650 2 1926/03 0.52 19.2 12.2 26.250 2 1926/04 0.71 27.3 19.1 35.550 2 1926/05 0.85 37.3 28.5 4650 2 1926/06 0.62 52.7 41.9 63.450 2 1926/07 1.81 54.4 45.4 63.550 2 1926/08 2.48 53.2 44.6 61.850 2 1926/09 3.6 47.1 41.2 52.950 2 1926/10 1.37 31.6 25.1 38.250 2 1926/11 1.03 22.1 17 27.250 2 1926/12 1.17 -0.2 -6.2 5.8

1.283333 29.66667 22.34167 36.98333

Building ChartsI compiled the yearly averages back to the first page of the worksheet, and then worked with several different chart options settling on scatter point charts to show the changes in yearly mean temperature, yearly low and yearly high. I then combined all three into a single chart. While the trend is slight, you can see that the temperatures have been increasing slightly over time. Again, this data is for Bethel, which is 97 miles East of Newtok, but the nearest weather station to the location. While the weather in Newtok may not be identical to Bethel, the trends at Bethel would be reflected in Newtok.

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200.00

5.00

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45.00

Combined High, Mean, Low

Mean Low High

Building Maps

My next project was to create some maps showing permafrost data and tracking the erosion that was taking place in Newtok.

I was unable to find historical data concerning the permafrost, but using ArcGIS Online, I found a layer file titled Jorgenson Permafrost Extent 2008 showing the different levels of permafrost and glaciers in Alaska. For some reason, my copy of ArcMap decided it did not want to download base maps, so I found another file on ArcGIS Online titled World Shaded Relief Map to use as a base.

For this first map, I used the shaded relief map as a base overlaying a slightly transparent version of the permafrost map and narrowed the scope to the Newtok and Mertarvik areas.

As can be seen in this map, both Newtok and the new village of Mertarvik are in regions where the permafrost extent is now considered “Sporadic” being listed as between 10-50%. It is, also, visible that Mertarvik is located at a higher elevation than Newtok.

Tracking Erosion

While there was a ready made map on the Newtok Planning Group website for this, I wanted to try building my own. It was not until I went into Google Earth that I was able to find historical maps via the time slider in which I could compare the shore line across time.

The historical maps only went back as far as 2004 and only as recent as 2012. The 2004 satellite image was unusable, so I began with 2005, drawing a line following the coast of the island. At each successive image, I drew a line following the coast.

Once the lines were drawn, I went back and downloaded .jpg’s of the entire island shoreline, then images showing just the coast along the village.

The Newtok Planning Group did have a map that I am including in this series showing the extent of a flood that took place on September 22, 2005.

Effects of Erosion In 1996, enough land had eroded to connect a bend in the Newtok River

to the Ninglick, turning the portion of the Newtok River that went around the village into a slough and removing a land barrier between the Ninglick River and the village. This erosion cost the village its old landfill, stopped the flow of honey-bucket waste away from the village, and created navigational issues for barges bring fuel and other supplies to the village. The new landfill is across the river on Nelson Island and only accessible at high tide.

In 2005, erosion finally destroyed the dock where barges offloaded fuel and supplies.

Thanks to a lack of indoor plumbing and inadequate potable water, Newtok was listed as having one of the highest rates of lower respiratory tract infections in infants in the state in 2006. 29% of the village infants were hospitalized with lower respiratory tract infections, including pneumonia and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) between 1994 and 2004.

Newtok Coast – June 2005

Village Coast Close-up – June 2005

Newtok Coast – July 2007

Village Coast Close-up – July 2007

Newtok Coast – August 2008

Village Coast Close-up – August 2008

Newtok Coast – October 2012

Village Coast Close-up – October 2012

Erosion Comparison 1954 to 2015

The most dramatic comparison of the erosion taking place came when I was able to overlay the 1954 D7 and D8 region Topo Quads over the World Imagery satellite image downloaded from ArcGIS Online and last updated in 2015. In the topo quads, you can see that the Newtok River did not connect with the Ninglick River until it reached its end west of Newtok. In the satellite image, it is clearly visible that erosion has now connected the two rivers east of Newtok turning the land on which the village sits into an island.

These photos were taken from a helicopter during a site visit on July 18, 2013 by the Innovative Readiness Training Program (IRT)

The building with the dark blue roof is the school. Above, the Ninglick River is on the left. To the right, is a large part of the village and the Newtok River to in the top, right corner. The Ninglick River is obscured by a portion of the helicopter in the lower right corner.

Moving to Mertarvik

Newtok is moving and the new site of the village is called Mertarvik.

Mertarvik is located on Nelson Island at a slightly higher elevation than Newtok.

In 2007, Golder Associates Inc presented their finding from a study of the Geology and Hydrology of the new town site. They found the area to be made up of eight to 20 basalt flows that slope gently to the east and northeast with a combined depth of 200 ft. and recommended 3 sites at which to drill for water.

A barge dock has been built, there is now a road leading to a quarry, at least three houses have been built, and construction of an Emergency Evacuation Center as of 2014

Per my contact with Sally Russell Cox, construction continues, but it is slow going.

New Site Location – A Bit More Stable

The new site on Nelson Island is about 9 miles southeast and across the river from Newtok’s current location. As seen in this comparison of the 1954 Topo Map and the 2015 satellite image, there has been little geographic change in this area.

Mertarvik - 2014

Sources 2013 Tiger Shapefiles. Census.gov. http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/geo/shapefiles2010/main

Topographic Maps. WeoGeo. https://market.trimbledata.com/#/search?east=-164.61922&north=60.94226&organization=USGS%20DRG%2FTopo&south=60.93514&west=-164.65355&zoom=16

WestCoastMonthlyHistorical.txt - NOAA, National Climate Data Center http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp#

World Imagery. ArcGIS Online. Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

World Shaded Relief Map. ArcGIS Online. Copyright:© 2014 Esri

Permafrost Extent – Alaska. ArcGIS Online. Created from the dataset used for Jorgenson et al 2008 and provided to ABoVE by Guido Grosse.

Historical satellite imagery. Google Earth.

Historical and current information and photographs. Newtok Planning Group. Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, Community and Regional Affairs site: Planning and Land Management. https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/dcra/PlanningLandManagement.aspx

Geophysical Investigation of Subsurface Hydrology and Groundwater Extraction at the Proposed Mertarvik Town Site Newtok, Alaska. 2007_Mertarvik_geophys_survey_hydrology_groundwater.pdf. https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/dcra/PlanningLandManagement.aspx