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Validation, Water and EnergyValidation, Water and EnergyGlobal
Modeling and Assimilation OfficeGlobal Modeling and Assimilation
Office
►►Overview and StatusOverview and Status►►Some early resultsSome
early results►►Monitoring (time permitting)Monitoring (time
permitting)
Presented by Michael Bosilovich, GSFC, January 5, 2009
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NASANASA’’s Modern Era Retrospectives Modern Era
Retrospective--analysis for analysis for Research and Applications
(MERRA)Research and Applications (MERRA)
►► RetrospectiveRetrospective--analyses use a fixed Global
Atmospheric analyses use a fixed Global Atmospheric Model and Data
Assimilation System to analyze the Model and Data Assimilation
System to analyze the historical satellite and conventional data
records into a historical satellite and conventional data records
into a continuous global gridded data set including a multitude
continuous global gridded data set including a multitude of
ancillary weather and climate diagnosticsof ancillary weather and
climate diagnostics
►► MERRA uses the latest release of the GMAO Global Earth MERRA
uses the latest release of the GMAO Global Earth Observing System
Data Assimilation System (GEOSObserving System Data Assimilation
System (GEOS--5) 5) and will analyze the period from 1979 and will
analyze the period from 1979 –– present, present, assimilating
satellite radiances and conventional assimilating satellite
radiances and conventional observationsobservations
►► A NASA contribution to CCSP Synthesis and Assessment A NASA
contribution to CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3:
ReProduct 1.3: Re--analyses of historical climate data for analyses
of historical climate data for key atmospheric features.
Implications for attribution of key atmospheric features.
Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.causes of
observed change.
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3
Years inStream
MERRA 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08Stream 1 10Stream 2 10Stream 3
9ROSB 21G5-AMIP 26EOS
NovNOAA-18
EOS AquaOct
F08
F15
SSM/IJul Dec
F10Nov
DecF11
Dec
DecF13
MayF14
May
Dec Aug
Apr Jul
Apr Jun
Jul
GOES-08
GOES-10
GOES-12
TIROS-NDec Feb
Jul Apr OctNovNOAA-6
FebSep NOAA-7
May Jun Jul OctNOAA-8
Jan NovNOAA-9
NOAA-10Dec Sep
Nov Jan Sep Sep NOAA-11
JunSep NOAA-12
Satellite Radiance Data Streams
JanNOAA-14
SepNOAA-15NovNOAA-16
JulNOAA-17
Dec
TOVS
ATOVS
EOS Aqua
GOESSounders
MERRA will analyze radiances from these satellites, and also
several satellite retrieved data products as well as conventional
observations (e.g. sondes)
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The Changing Observing SystemThe Changing Observing System
1973 – 77K Obs every 6hrs
1979 – 325K Obs every 6hrs
1987 – 550K Obs every 6hrs
2006 – 4.2M Obs every 6hrs
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NASANASA’’s Modern Era Retrospectives Modern Era
Retrospective--analysis for analysis for Research and Applications
(MERRA)Research and Applications (MERRA)
►► Objective: To improve the water cycle representation
Objective: To improve the water cycle representation in reanalyses,
and support NASA Earth science and in reanalyses, and support NASA
Earth science and application activitiesapplication activities
►► 19791979--present (continuing as it is feasible)present
(continuing as it is feasible)►► ½½°° horizontal resolution
(horizontal resolution (7272 model levels, model levels,
sfcsfc--stratstrat))►► 1 hourly1 hourly surface and 2D diagnostic
datasurface and 2D diagnostic data►► 6 hourly 36 hourly
3--Dimensional atmospheric analysisDimensional atmospheric
analysis►► >150 >150 TbsTbs online storage, many
portalsonline storage, many portals►► Production Began May 2008
(complete FallProduction Began May 2008 (complete
Fall--2009)2009)►► Home Home --
http://http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/merragmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/merra//►►
Data Data --
http://http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.govdisc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/MDISC//MDISC/►►
Discussion Discussion --
http://merrahttp://merra--reanalysis.blogspot.comreanalysis.blogspot.com//
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MERRA ValidationMERRA Validation
►►Experiment Review, Nov 2007Experiment Review, Nov
2007►►Included Short Experiments at native Included Short
Experiments at native
resolution (9 months was the longest)resolution (9 months was
the longest)Long experiment with coarse resolution (Scout)Long
experiment with coarse resolution (Scout)
►►Radiation, clouds, precipitation, surface Radiation, clouds,
precipitation, surface temperature, UTH, general
circulationtemperature, UTH, general circulation
►►Data sources: SRB, CERES, MODIS, GPCP Data sources: SRB,
CERES, MODIS, GPCP existing reanalysesexisting reanalyses
►►Increments (e.g. PIncrements (e.g. P--E), Indian MonsoonE),
Indian Monsoon
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MERRA Production StatusMERRA Production Status
►► This figure is updated regularly at: This figure is updated
regularly at:
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/progresshttp://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/progress--events.phpevents.php
Nearly 17 years complete
shipping to DISC
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Effect of Water Vapor AnalysisEffect of Water Vapor Analysis
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MERRA MERRA PrecipPrecip Taylor DiagramsTaylor Diagrams
►► See also: Bosilovich et al (2008, JAMC)See also: Bosilovich
et al (2008, JAMC)
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Zonal Mean Specific HumidityZonal Mean Specific Humidity
ERA 40 JRA25
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BasinBasin--scale Precipitationscale Precipitation
►► CPC US CPC US ¼¼ gridded gauge datagridded gauge data►►
Daily, Jan 1 Daily, Jan 1 –– Sep 30 2004Sep 30 2004►► Consider all
of the Mississippi River Basin domainConsider all of the
Mississippi River Basin domain►► Comparison with CEOP
MultiComparison with CEOP Multi--Models in Poster sessionModels in
Poster session
GEOS5
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Analysis
JanJan--Sep 2004 Sep 2004 Daily MRB Daily MRB
PrecipitationPrecipitation►►MRB is in the heart of MRB is in the
heart of a data rich region for a data rich region for
analysesanalyses►►Precipitation is Precipitation is independent
(not independent (not assimilated)assimilated)►►In general, Models
In general, Models have different have different
characterscharacters►►Most overestimate Most overestimate high rain
eventshigh rain events►►BMRC excessively dry BMRC excessively dry
summersummer►►GEOS5 slight under GEOS5 slight under estimate, but
otherwise estimate, but otherwise comparable with the comparable
with the bestbest
NCEP CPTEC
BMRC
JMA
ECPC-SFMMSC
UKMO ECPC-RII
Mississippi River Basin PrecipitationG
auge
Obse
rvat
ions
GEOS5
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MERRA: Missouri and Ohio LCL, MERRA: Missouri and Ohio LCL,
Wetness and Wetness and PrecipPrecip
Following A. Betts et al. compare soil wetness with LCL and
precipitation to estimate land/atm coupling
The LCL is not sensitive to soil wetness over the Ohio, and a
bit more over the Missouri
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Cloud Albedo, a SW cloud forcing diagnostic (Betts et al)
MERRA underestimates the maximum range of both ISSCP
observations and ERA40 over the Missouri
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0-6Z 6-12Z 12-18Z 18-0Z
GEOS5GEOS5
JRAJRA
NCEP R1NCEP R1
NCEP R2NCEP R2
EC-OPSEC-OPS
TRMMTRMM
Diurnal Cycle of PrecipitationDiurnal Cycle of Precipitation
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14.44.114.44.6NCEP2 - CERES
11.5-0.911.4-0.5NCEP1 - CERES
10.315.89.016.2JRA25 - CERES
6.87.67.38.9ECOPS - CERES
12.82.59.15.4MERRA - CERES
2.5-0.72.4-0.8CERES Terra -Aqua
STDAveSTDAve
Jul, 2004Jan, 2004TOA LW difference
(W/m2)
•All reanalyses get similar patterns as observation.•The
difference between observations can be a reference for the
uncertainty in reanalyses.•For all reanalyses, strongest error
happens over tropical convective regions.•MERRA TOA LW flux bias
mean and standard deviation are moderate among reanalyses.
TOA LW comparison
of reanalyses
TOA LW TOA LW comparison comparison
of of reanalysesreanalyses
From Junye Chen
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•LW-SW Joint Frequency Distribution (JFD) shows the relationship
of LW and SW under different atmospheric states.•The shape and
location of MERRA LW-SW JFD is closer to CERES observation, while
the MERRA pattern is a little stretched.
•From Junye Chen
TOA LWTOA LW--SW Joint Freq. DistributionSW Joint Freq.
Distribution
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Trends in the Water and Energy CyclesTrends in the Water and
Energy Cycles
►► Global P trend mostly Global P trend mostly over Ocean, and
over Ocean, and corresponds to corresponds to
QvQvIncrementsIncrements
►► AtmAtm Latent heating Latent heating variations
antivariations anti--correlated correlated to heating incrementsto
heating increments
Precipitation
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2001
mm
day
-1 GlobalLandOcean
Water Vapor Increments
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2001
mm
day
-1 GlobalLandOcean
Global Heating Rates (W m-2)
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2001
MST
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
AN
A MoistProcessesAnalysis
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Net Surface and TOA ImbalanceNet Surface and TOA Imbalance
►► Global surface net imbalance is improving in time, Global
surface net imbalance is improving in time, mostly changing over
Oceanmostly changing over Ocean
►► The Ocean net imbalance is decreasing in The Ocean net
imbalance is decreasing in incoming SW radiation and increasing
LEincoming SW radiation and increasing LE
Ocean Sfc Anomalies (W m-2)
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2001
LEHsSWdnLWdn
Net Heating Sfc and TOA
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1998
1999
2000
2001
W m
-2 SfcTOASFC LTOA LSFC OTOA O
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►► Complete budgets Complete budgets are available are available
including all including all tendencies and tendencies and analysis
incrementsanalysis increments
►► Water (all phases), Water (all phases), Ozone, KE, Enthalpy,
Ozone, KE, Enthalpy, IncludedIncluded
►► Also, landAlso, land--only only budgetsbudgets
►► Tremendous effort Tremendous effort by Max Suarez, by Max
Suarez, Larry Larry TakacsTakacs and and Randy Randy
KosterKoster
Vertically-Integrated Water Vapor Budget for July
1993Vertically-Integrated Water Vapor Budget for July 1993
ANAtqvqvPE
tqv
∂∂
+⋅∇−−=∂∂
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Presidents Day Snow Feb 19, 1979Presidents Day Snow Feb 19,
1979
►►Much fewer observations early in the Much fewer observations
early in the record, still weather can be reasonablerecord, still
weather can be reasonable
GOES IR 17:30Z19FEB1979
(Barbs every other grid space)
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Andrew Aug 24, 1992Andrew Aug 24, 1992
►► MERRA analyzed center is south of observed MERRA analyzed
center is south of observed
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Andrew Aug 24, 1992Andrew Aug 24, 1992
►►Contaminated ERS1 data is usedContaminated ERS1 data is
used►►Resolution still too coarse for small Resolution still too
coarse for small TCsTCs
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Scout SBUV Assimilation Statistics, Mar 1992
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Ozone response to questionable data Ozone response to
questionable data Increments OzoneIncrements Ozone
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Flawed sounding: Flawed sounding: AzoresAzores
►►19791979--1980: A 1980: A persistent sounding persistent
sounding west of Portugal is west of Portugal is very different
from very different from others nearbyothers nearby
►►The result is a The result is a persistent counterpersistent
counter--increment that affects increment that affects
energeticsenergetics and and moisture budgets moisture budgets
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MERRA MERRA OnOn--Line Line
AtlasAtlas►► Updated regularly Updated regularly
with monthly with monthly comparisons versus comparisons versus
existing reanalyses existing reanalyses and some global and some
global observed data setsobserved data sets
►► More comparisons More comparisons being added and will being
added and will be redone at the be redone at the completion of
MERRAcompletion of MERRA
►► Beta Version: Beta Version: Comments WelcomeComments
Welcome
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/prequel/view.php
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Example figures from the AtlasExample figures from the
Atlas500mb Eddy Height vs JRA25
Precipitation Taylor Diagram, All Reanalyses using GPCP as the
reference
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MERRA_Validation_Water-Energy-1MERRA_Validation_Water-Energy