New climate change adaptation in Eastern Canadanordicadaptation2018.net/polopoly_fs/1.140946!/1A_2... · 2018. 10. 31. · climate change adaptation in Eastern Canada at the municipal

Building the business case

for climate change adaptation in

Eastern Canada at the municipal

level

presented by ,

Charles-Antoine Gosselin, Economist

Authors: Laurent Da Silva, senior economistCharles-Antoine Gosselin, economistCaroline Simard, economistTravis Logan, Climate scenarios specialist

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Presentation plan

Project background

Cost of inaction

• Urban heat islands

• Stormwater management

Benefits of adaptation

• Urban forest pest control strategies

• Campaigns against alien invasive species

• Complete streets program

Conclusion

Project background

• Quebec city - Population : 531 000

COST OF INACTION BENEFITS OF ADAPTATION

Estimating inaction sectorial costs of climate change impacts

Impacts• Rising temperature• Increased rainfall

Critical issues• Urban heat islands• Stormwater management• Flood

Estimating benefits of adaptation to climate change

Impacts • Rising temperature• Longer growing seasons• +

Adaptation measures to criticalissues• Campaigns against alien invasive

species • Urban forest pest control

strategies• Smart streets program

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

EXPECTED CHANGES FOR AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATUREDegree Celsius, Quebec city, 2050, 2100

EXPECTED CHANGES FOR TOTAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATIONSMillimetre, Quebec city, 2050, 2100

Cost of inaction : Urban heat islands

Cost of inaction : Air conditioning related to urban heat island

• The province of Quebec has one the cheapest electricity rates in the world

• But the Quebecers, in 2013, were alsothe third largest consumers in the world

• By 2050, temperature increase willreduce by 9,1% the energy demand in Quebec for the residential sector(Lafrance, 2015)

• However, the demand for air conditioning will increase by 4,1% (Lafrance, 2015)

EVOLUTION OF THE TOTAL COST OF AIR CONDITIONING RELATED TO HEAT ISLANDMillions of Canadian dollars, Quebec city, 2020-2050

Residential sector

Commercial sector

Administrative sector

2020 2050

EVOLUTION OF THE ANNUAL COST PER DWELLING-UNIT FOR AIR CONDITIONING Millions of Canadian dollars, Quebec city, 2020-2050

EVOLUTION OF MORTALITY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT ISLANDSNumber of annual cases, Quebec City, 2020-2050

Other causes

Respiratory causes

Cardiovascular causes

Cost of inaction : Health impacts of heat islands

57%

40%

3%

Commercial areaResidential areaAdministrative area

Negatives externalities: Looking at the big disaggregated picture

Cost of inaction : Stormwater management

Cost of inaction : Stormwater management

EVOLUTION OF TOTAL ANNUAL COST FOR WASTE-WATER TREATMENT PLANTS Millions of $, Quebec City, 2020-2050

HISTORICAL AND PROJECTION OF ANNUAL DURATION OF STORMWATER OVERFLOWThousands of minutes, Quebec City, 2020-2050

Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program

Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program

20 years 5 years

CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: EMERALD ASH BORER CONTROL PROGRAMMillions of $, Quebec City, 2017-2050

PROJECTED ASH POPULATIONNumber of dead ash trees, Quebec City, 2017-2050

Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program

CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: COMMON REED CONTROL PROGRAMMillions of $, Quebec City, 2020-2050

Benefits of adaptation : Common reed control

Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

• 2 streets renewed

• Net present values for both streets : 734 000$ and 73 000$

Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

Encouraging active transportation

• Optimal loss of parking space• Intersection safety increased for bikers and walker• Bikes paths more visible• Net benefit regarding health costs

(bicycle accident costs < lower cost related to healthimprovement)

• One way : speeding up traffic?

Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

Creating green streets

• Modelizing value of ecosystem services

with iTree

• Carbon

• Air Quality

• Avoided Runoff

• Energy Effects

• Structure

• Increasing diversity of species

• Long-term benefit

Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: STORMWATER BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICESThousands of $, Quebec City, 2020-2050

Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

Designing for four-season use

• Limited economic results

Regular members

Affiliate members

Co-authors: Laurent Da Silva, senior economistCaroline Simard, economistTravis Logan, Climate scenarios specialist

@ouranos_cc

Charles-Antoine Gosselin

www.ouranos.ca

Charles-Antoine Gosselin

Economist

[email protected]