Negociation Techniques: Sri Lankan Government vs LTTE Analysis (MBA)

Sri Lanka Government (SLG)versus

Liberation of Tamil Tigers of Eelam (LTTE)

A story of lost opportunitiesAmit Danenberg

Meera GuptaNiki GomezYash Mehta

Poonam NarulaSubrat NayakPrat Vemana

MIT Sloan : Power & Negociation Class 2009

Background

This analysis is based on Negociating and Bargaining tactics as taught by Jared Curhan in Power and Negociation class at MIT Sloan in 2009.

Much of this presentation was following techniques from ‘Getting to Yes’ by Bruce Patton, Roger Fisher and William Ury.

Agenda

• Overview of Sri Lanka• Sri Lanka – Two perspectives• History of Negotiations• Analyze Current Situation

Sri Lanka – Country Demographics

• An island located in the Indian ocean, off the southeast tip of India

• GDP – $42B USD• GDP per capita – $4400• Population – 22 Million• Multi-Religion– Buddhist, Muslim, Hindu,

Christian• Key Economic Drivers – Tea,

Rubber, Garment Industry, Tourism

77.33%

14.59%

7.56% 0.52%

Sri Lanka Population

SinhaleseTamiliansMoorsBurghers

Sri Lanka – Two Perspectives

Story of Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Government Perspective

Sri Lanka – One Nation

Tamil

Muslim

Diverse and Integrated

A Nation of Peace

Buddhists – A majority population

Tamil Terrorists•Few Tamils formed terrorist group- LTTE•War for 26 years•70,000 people have died•Sri Lankan economy is in tatters•Tourism and investment down

We cannot let LTTE divide small country

Story of Sri Lanka

Tamil Perspective

Sri Lanka – History (Tamil)

• When Portuguese took possession of the island in 1505 there were 3 Kingdoms

• Tamil Kingdom in the North-East - Tamil Homeland

• Sinhalese Kingdoms in the South-West

Sri Lanka – History (Tamil)

One Island – Two Nations

Mistreatment of Tamils• 1948 – 1 million Tamils declared as non-citizens

• 1949 – Sinhalese colonization in traditional Tamil homeland

• 1956 – Sinhala made sole official language of the country

• 1970 – “Ethnic standardization” slashes university admission to Tamils

• 1972 – New constitution without Tamil participation– Unilateral name change from Ceylon to Sri Lanka– Declaration of Sri Lanka as a republic– Buddhism made state religion

History of Negotiations

Negotiation between

Sri Lanka Government&

Tamils1956

1956 - Facts

• Sri Lanka government announced Sinhalese as official language

• Tamil politicians staged peaceful demonstrations

• Violent response from government

Sri Lanka Government - Tamils

InterestOptions

Legitimacy

CommitmentRelationship

Communication Alternatives

Why only Sinhala?

It should be inclusive decision making process

Its 80% of populationSinhala, Tamil

Tamil included as official language

Riots to stop

Equal Representation

Why did you attack non-violent protest?Unfortunate incidentLets resolve together

One Nation

Equal Representation

History of Conflict ResolutionsFrom 1956 to Now

History of Negotiations – 1973 - 2002• LTTE formed in 1976• Continued war between two

forces• LTTE used brutal tactics• LTTE introduced “guerilla”

attacks• LTTE controls North East SL• SLG uses brutal force & state

sponsored violence against Tamils

• India Mediated Peace• India Ex-Prime Minister

assassinated by LTTE 1991

History of Negotiations - 2002

• Ceasefire– Monitored by Scandinavian Countries

• Direct Dialogue– Facilitated By the Royal Norwegian Government

• THE OSLO DECLARATION– Signed by the SLG and the LTTE on 25 November 2002– Extremely short-lived due to lack of trust ad commitment on both

sides

Current Conflict

Current Situation – May 1st 2009

• SL govt. launched major offensive in 2007 to wipe out LTTE

• Systematic war campaign has killed many LTTE troops

• LTTE confined to 7km2 area is using civilians as human shields

• International community humanitarian outrage

• No freedom of press

Current CrisisMediation

United NationsSri Lanka

Tamil

Mediator - Sri Lanka Government

InterestOptions

Legitimacy

CommitmentRelationship

Communication Alternatives

We are very close to winning the war

How can you protect civilians?

We don’t want Prabhakaran to

escape

Ceasefire?Possible Sanctions

Safe passage & Rebuild Tamil Communities

Mediator with Sri Lanka

• N: We are very close to winning this long war (Int)• A: How can you protect Civilians?• N: We don’t want Prabhakaran to escape (Interest)• A: Possible sanctions, IMF funds being blocked (Commit)• A: Can you announce cease fire now? (Commit)• N: Safe passage (Alternative)• N: Rebuild the displaced Tamil communities (Commit)• A: What is your BATNA?• N: To continue the War until Prabhakaran is killed.

However we just want peace.

Mediator - LTTE

InterestOptions

Legitimacy

CommitmentRelationship

Communication Alternatives

I don’t trust the Government promises

We will protect you

We need a ceasefire

Why don’t you surrender?

Human Atrocities

I am a wanted man

Mediator with LTTE

• P: Human Atrocities unbearable (Legitimacy)• P: We need to ceasefire now (Interest)• A: Why don’t you surrender to stop war (Option)?• P: I don’t believe the government, many times SLG

went back (Legitimacy)• P: I am a wanted man (Interest)• A: We will protect your life (Option)• A: What is your BATNA?• P: Ceasefire due to huge human rights abuses by the

government

All Parties

InterestOptions

Legitimacy

CommitmentRelationship

Communication Alternatives

Why only Sinhala?

We have a human rights crisis- need to end the war

Its 80% of populationHow can you

protect civilians?

Tamil included as official language

Riots to stop

Equal Representation

Why did you attack non-violent protest?Unfortunate incidentLets resolve together

One Nation

Equal Representation

All parties - Dialog• A: We have a human rights crisis, we need to end the war (Interest)• A: Prabhakaran surrender – We will try your case in Hague court• A: Govt will give safe passage• A: Equal representation to Tamil• A: I will get international community to pledge loans to rebuild• A: International monitoring• N: I agree• P: Over my dead body• A: How do you want to go down in history?• P: I would rather be a martyr • A: You have to save your people• A: Hague will offer you a fair hearing• P: Yes

• It is not a fixed pie or zero-sum game• 7 elements of Negotiation– Circle of Value• Interests• Options• Legitimacy

– Alternatives• BATNA

– Communication– Commitment– Relationship• ZOPA: Surrender or continuing the war– Reservation Value, Aspiration Value• Norms: Relational Norms– Equality, Equity, Need• Difficult Tactics:– Attack, Threat• Mediation: – Neutrality– Strong– Caucusing

Achieving Peace Through Value Creation

Q&A