NAVSEA Common Cost Model - ACEIT | Home · NCCM Overview: Ship Estimating Single hull and multiple hull analysis, including multi-yard “splits”. Standard WBS for reporting, covering

Tecolote Research, Inc.

January 2008January 2008

NAVSEA Common Cost ModelOn-The-Fly “ACE Estimates” Via the Web

John McGahan

NAVSEA Common Cost ModelNAVSEA Common Cost ModelOnOn--TheThe--Fly Fly ““ACE EstimatesACE Estimates”” Via the WebVia the Web

John McGahanJohn McGahan

NCCM Overview: Ship Estimating

“Innovative” ACE Estimate Structure

Key ACEIT Technologies

Demonstration

NCCM Overview: Ship EstimatingNCCM Overview: Ship EstimatingNCCM Overview: Ship Estimating

Single hull and multiple hull analysis, including multi-yard “splits”.

Standard WBS for reporting, covering full life cycle.

Analyst defines any number of lower level elements to map to standard WBS. Some standard WBS elements are estimated as simple factors of other elements.

Procurement element estimates are based on UPA methods.R&D, GFE, O&S and Disposal through-puts are total TY $ by Hull.

NCCM provides access to “system level” tables, including FPRA, inflation, CER Libraries, and ASSET Design Data.

Embedded, standard risk analysis method.

NCCM Overview: Standard WBSNCCM Overview: Standard WBSNCCM Overview: Standard WBS

TY Throughputs By Hull

NCCM Overview: Standard WBSNCCM Overview: Standard WBSNCCM Overview: Standard WBS

NCCM Overview: PrimaryEstimating Method

NCCM Overview: PrimaryNCCM Overview: PrimaryEstimating Method Estimating Method

Cost Element Manhour Formula

Weight * Tech Fact * LCER * Adjustment * Lrn Fact OR Throughput

Weight Adjustment Labor Hoursper LTon

Overall Adjustment for Productivity

Cost Element Labor Cost Formula

Labor Hours * Labor Rate * OH Rate * FCM

Forward Price Labor RateOr User Override Overhead & FCM

Learning Factor

Overall Material Adjustment Factor

Cost Element Material Cost Formula

Weight * Tech Fact * MCER * Adjustment * Inflation Adjustment

Material $ per LTon

What’s So Cool About NCCM?WhatWhat’’s So Cool About NCCM?s So Cool About NCCM?

Browser-based, multi-user system.No client/desktop components.All data, models inputs, and estimates results stored and maintained in server database.

NCCM not running pre-built, canned ACE modelOther browser-based systems using ACE models have run what-if drills on existing models (like POST on the desktop).NCCM builds model (ACE session) on-the-fly, on the server.

Typically NCCM builds session, calculates session, extracts results for reporting, and then throws the session away.Or, the user can request/extract a copy of the session.

Why do it this way?

Why Build On-The-Fly ACE Sessions

Why Build OnWhy Build On--TheThe--Fly Fly ACE SessionsACE Sessions

Requirement: Need to be able to estimate an arbitrary list of elements.Each NCCM estimate has a unique Project Element List.Each element is mapped to a standard “reporting” WBS element.In the area of primary interest (procurement weight groups 1 – 7), estimators will frequently estimate at different indent levels (and sometime both parent and child levels).

Example

How do you do this in ACE…?

ACE Session StructureACE Session StructureACE Session StructureNCCM starts with a “session template”

Static Standard WBS for reporting (labor hour, labor $, material $, etc); 2000+ rows.SUMIF used to roll-up project elements results (labor, materials, etc) to Standard WBS.Implement standard estimating methods/forms (e.g., Plans).

Template extract:

Note duplicate rows!

ACE Session StructureACE Session StructureACE Session StructureNCCM expands template to include project element inputs and methods.

Heavy utilization of matrix structures in ACE.Repeated sections organized around the project WBS.Includes estimating inputs, CERs/factors, intermediate calculation, risk, etc.

Customized session extract:

Key ACEIT TechnologiesKey ACEIT TechnologiesKey ACEIT Technologies

ACE Engine / API: Provides ACE functionality in on Web Server; users don’t see ACE.Provides complete programmatic control over ACE session.

NCCM calculations governed largely defined by templateReduced development effort and simplified maintenance

ACE engine (including many ACEIT 7.1 features)SUMIFFlexible interpretation of point estimateUser-defined / custom distributions

Allows user to model any distributionAlso used in heuristic process to combine risk results across hulls (class-level summary results)

Tornado and variance chartsResidual benefit: Developed mini “stand-alone” web utility for visual display of risk input distributions.

Demonstration

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User LoginSupports workgroups, shared/published estimates

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Organized around key estimating steps.Access on-line NCCM CER library.Export/Import model inputs to/from Excel, supporting desktop estimate maintenance.

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Define Project WBS

Insert “standard WBS elements”to define mappingRe-label elements as needed

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Identify hulls (and partial hulls) by yard.Define implementation schedule.Set learning curve assumptions.

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Select Forward Price Rate Agreement tables for yards.Review calculated composite rates by hull.Override rates and factors as needed.

NCCM Demo NCCM Demo NCCM Demo Define Technical Data (weights) for Project Elements

Import from engineering systemOverride weights

Allows multiple Technical Data “sets” for different hulls

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Define labor and material CER “sets”Import from library or override

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Define other rates and factors.

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Define risk distributions for any element.

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Assign input “sets” to hulls.

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Calculate with or without risk.Download copy of generated ACE session for individual hulls.

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Sample placemat report generated to Excel

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Sample Risk Charts

Thanks You!