NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise Storage-STEC SSD Suppliers-SanDisk - Toshiba - Micron/Lexar-Mtron - Samsung-Intel - HyperStone-SST - Silicon Motion-Phison-Marvell - LSI Logic-TDK

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected] is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise StorageEnabling Products or Enabling Profits?

John MonroeResearch Vice President

Gartner Storage Group

Joseph UnsworthResearch Director

Gartner Semiconductor Group

IDEMA DISKCONSeptember 2008

He who foretells the future lies, even if he tells the truth.—Arab Proverb

Where Do We Come From? What are We? Where Are We Going?

Infinitely self-similar,never the same…

Mobile

Desktop

Enterprise

Why SSDs in the Enterprise?

• HDDs have made enormous advances in capacity, cost per GB and reliability but much more limited advances in performance.

• With HDDs, enterprise IOPS per GB have actually declined.• There will be a growing need for “storage network accelerators” (SNAs) in

a variety of enterprise applications.

Key Issues1. What are the key market trends and applications fueling data growth?

2. What are the storage technologies and architectures that best address the complexity, cost and environmental challenges faced by IT professionals?

3. What are the current NAND flash industry dynamics?

This image can serve as a kind of metaphor for “seamless integration,” reflecting a coalescence of storage systems that can—with endless, scalable replication, simplicity and beauty—“solve” the problem of infinity at every edge.

The Evolving Storage Landscape

• The Internet has one key purpose: The quick transport of digital data in multiple forms to multiple locations. All other uses have evolved from that initial aim.

• Increased storage at any point in the World Wide Web increases the possibilities for storage in every part of the Web. We are only beginning to see the enormous implications of that simple sentence.

Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies

Source: Gartner June 2008“Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies, 2008” (G00158208)

HDDs and SSDs in the Enterprise:A Spectrum of Opportunity

0

20

40

60

80

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

5.4K/7.2K-RPM HDDs

10K/15K-RPM HDDs

Enterprise-Grade SSDs

• High Capacity SATA HDDs: 2007 – 11.48M Units 2012 -- 16.82M Units

• High-Performance FC/SAS HDDs: 2007 – 29.86M Units 2012 – 37.16M Units

• Enterprise-Grade SSDs: 2007 -- 473K Units 2012 – 7.2M Units

Total Multiuser Markets

Units (M)

He who foretells the future lies,even if he tells the truth.

—Arab Proverb

SATAHDDs

FC/SASHDDs

SSDs

From the Consumer to the Data Center:The Management of Complexity is Complex• New dimensions in corporate and personal computing will demand (among

other things)…

- More storage capacity and quick, seamless access to enormous databases

- More cost-effective and power-efficient storage infrastructures

- More degrees of data security and more widespread uses of data encryption

- Better archiving and disaster recovery systems

- Better data management and enterprise content management

- Better compliance strategies

- Better IT operations to respond to enhanced SLAs

Both HDDs and SSDs will play key roles in the future management of storage complexity.

Flash Landscape & Enterprise-Grade SSD Demands

• WHY SSD in ‘Tier 0’ Storage?- To Replace HDD For Performance, NOT Storage

100X+ Read Performance10X+ Write Performance

- Power Efficiency, Thermal Resistivity, Reliability

• Not All Flash is Created Equal: SLC vs. MLC- SLC Twice As Fast, 10X Endurance Cycles…BUT- SLC is $7/GB vs. $2.50/GB - 93% NAND Output Is MLC

• SLC NAND Flash Attributes:- Very Low Latency Reads: (~50us)- Relatively Slow Writes: (>200us)- Limited Endurance Cycles: Ranging from 100K-2M

Sun Microsystems ZFS Hybrid Pool Example (From IDF Shanghai)

Same $ Budget Spent

RESULT

Enterprise-Grade SSD: New Perspectives

0

2

4

6

8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3.5" SSD2.5" SSD1.8" SSD

Enterprise-Grade SSD SegmentationUnits (M) 2012

256GB E-Grade SSD is ~$500 OEM Price

256GB PC SSD is

Controller Enables Enhanced SSD Functionality• Multiple Channel Support for Optimizing NAND

Interleaving (8,16, and more Channels)• Advanced Wear-Leveling Algorithms• Bad Block Management: 8bit,12bit+ ECC/EDC• Native SATA, FC SupportController Leaders Controller Challengers

SSD Suppliers- STEC- SanDisk- Toshiba- Micron/Lexar- Mtron- Samsung- Intel- HyperStone- SST

- Silicon Motion- Phison- Marvell- LSI Logic- TDK- InComm- SkyMedi- Many, Many Custom Solutions

- STEC- Smart Modular- SanDisk- Toshiba- Samsung- Intel- Imation/Mtron- Micron/Lexar- BitMicro- Silicon Systems

8/16LC NAND

The NAND Flash Price Free FallASP/GB

1997 2012

$310

$7,870

$7.94

$0.25

MLC NAND

SLC NAND

8LC = 3bits per Cell16LC = 4bits per Cell

Worldwide NAND Forecast, 3Q08:Summary of AdjustmentsDemand

Slow Demand Across US and Europe due to Macroeconomic FactorsInventories Jammed in Q208 for both NAND Suppliers & CustomersFlash Card & USB Drive Capacities Sluggish Migration to 4GB+PMP & USB Drive shipments show slower growth

SupplySupply Production Revised Down only ~1% in 2008 and Similar Bit Growth in 2009NAND Capacity spending cuts, More Needed (Excludes Recent SNDK Cuts)2007 CapEx $11.5B, +30% 2008 CapEX $9.46B, -17% 2009 CapEx $10.41B, +9.5%

ForecastForecast outlook has worsened near-term with hopes to 2010 for recovery2008: $13.9B, -10.1% growth2009: Recovery in 2H09: $16B, 15.1% growth2010: Recovery continues in 2010: $19.1B, 19.5% growth2011–2012: Supply Induced downturn, Limited Profitability

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q0990%

95%

100%

105%

110%

NAND Flash Supply NAND Flash Demand Sufficiency 1Q&2Q Previous

Billions ofMegabytes

Supply/DemandSufficiency

3Q08 Update: What a Difference a Quarter Makes!

Source: Gartner August, 2008“NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08”

Short-Term Supply/Demand Sufficiency

2007: 101.5% = Oversupply2008: 103.2% = Oversupply2009: 100.2% = Balance

Capacity Increases Despite Losses

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q10

7

Q20

7

Q30

7

Q40

7

Q10

8

Q20

8

Q30

8

Q40

8

300mm200mm

Wafers (Thousands 200mm Eq.)

Source: Gartner August, 2008

300mm Capacity Is a Costly Necessity in Commodity NAND

Limited Revenue Growth…2006 +12.5%2007 +14.8%2008E -10.1%

…Yet Spending Continues!2007 CapEx $11.5B, +30%2008 CapEX $9.46B, -17%2009 CapEx $10.41B, +9.5% Further Declines Likely Given Losses

And More to Come, Despite recent Delays…

-300mm Capacity Grows from 40% in 1Q07 to 70% in Q408

- Every Major Vendor has a 300mm Fab Ramp in 2009

NAND Multi-State & Controller Technology: A Glimpse into the Future

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009

NROM 4BC

NROM 2BC

MLC AND

MLC DOC

OneNAND

16LC NAND

8LC NAND

MLC NAND

SLC NAND

% of MBShipments

Source: Gartner August, 2008“NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08 Update”

Cost Reductions Must Not Compromise Quality

- Every Shrink Pressures Performance and Endurance

- 3bits Technology Will Repeat MLC Trend

- ECC/EDC, Wear-Leveling, Bad Block Management Essential

- Flash Management Software & Advanced Controllers Can Be Differentiators in a Commodity Market

NAND Technologies

NAND Flash Market Forecast: 2008 Collapse, Recovery 2H09/2010

0

4

8

12

16

20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CAGR 07-12Gigabytes (M) 64.1 229.3 703.1 1,945 4,684 10,415 22,074 42,022 75,101 107.7%Bit Growth 222% 258% 207% 177% 141% 122% 112% 90% 79%

Rev

enue

(Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs)

12.5%14.8%

-10.1%15.1%

69.6%

19.5%

CAGR07-12

ASP 1GB eqv. 109.4 52.1 19.1 7.94 2.97 1.54 0.87 0.43 0.25 -49.8%ASP Change -47.4% -52.3% -63.3% -58.5% -62.7% -48.2% -43.6% -50.0% -41.6%

NAND Revenue

Source: Gartner, August 2008Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide--Forecast Database [SEQS-WW-DB-DATA]

-4.9%

70.6%

4.4%

A Few Inconclusive Conclusions

• NAND flash will be the "tip of the iceberg" —HDDs will power the massive bulk of storage content hidden in the "ocean" of available data.

• Technology providers and end users must realize that a spectrum of opportunity in emerging applications is far more compelling than any kindof disruptive battlefield.

• Alliances between HDD and NAND flash technology providers should serve to enlarge the library of forms in which storage is a necessary element, thereby enhancing the variety and valueof storage products and services.

Thank You for Your Time And Attention

ขอบคุณ ครบั

Renew Yourself (profitably) Time & Time Again

Good FortuneThe “Supreme Ultimate”Longevity

http://www.sandisk.com/Products/Catalog(1135)-SanDisk_RSMMC_Reduced_Size_MultiMediaCard.aspx

NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise Storage�Enabling Products or Enabling Profits?Why SSDs in the Enterprise?Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware TechnologiesHDDs and SSDs in the Enterprise:�A Spectrum of OpportunityFrom the Consumer to the Data Center:�The Management of Complexity is ComplexEnterprise-Grade SSD: �New PerspectivesWorldwide NAND Forecast, 3Q08:�Summary of Adjustments3Q08 Update: �What a Difference a Quarter Makes!Capacity Increases Despite LossesNAND Multi-State & Controller Technology: A Glimpse into the FutureNAND Flash Market Forecast: �2008 Collapse, Recovery 2H09/2010A Few Inconclusive ConclusionsThank You for Your Time And Attention