The Future of the 905 Communities NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter Antony P. Lorius October 19 th , 2011
The Future of the 905 Communities
NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter
Antony P. Lorius
October 19th, 2011
Five Questions: Five Questions:
1.1. Where will the growth occur?Where will the growth occur?
2.2. What is the relationship between What is the relationship between Toronto and the 905 and how will it Toronto and the 905 and how will it change?change?
3.3. What is the plan for infrastructure?What is the plan for infrastructure?
4.4. What is the impact of the Greenbelt?What is the impact of the Greenbelt?
5.5. How will that affect development?How will that affect development?
Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) will continue to grow rapidly(GTAH) will continue to grow rapidly
Cambridge
MississaugaMilton
Guelph
403
401
407
401
407
40
0
404
427410
Toronto
Developed Urban Area
Employment Areas
LBPIA
QEW
401
403
Brampton
407
401
407
427410
Toronto
Vaughan
Major Office Development
International Airports
Intermodal Yards
Future Transportation Corridors
QEW
401
403
Caledon
WaterlooKitchener
Brantford
Markham Whitby-Oshawa
Woodstock
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS
Mississauga
Oakville
Burlington
Pickering-Ajax
Hamilton
Georgetown
GTAH 2011 6,820,000 3,440,000 2031 8,620,000 4,330,000GGH 2011 9,030,000 4,460,000 2031 11,500,000 5,560,000
Population Employment
Location relative to US markets partly Location relative to US markets partly explains the historic patternexplains the historic pattern
US 219
I-69
I-87
I-75
GeorgianBay
Lake Ontario
Lake Erie
Ottawa River
St. Lawren
ce Rive
r
ONTARIO
U.S.A.
I-77
I-90
I-94
RochesterRochester
BuffaloBuffaloSarniaSarnia
MontrealMontreal
Albany
ChicagoChicago
ToledoToledo
Sault Ste. MarieSault Ste. Marie
I-90
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
DetroitDetroit
U.S.A.
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS
I-75 and I-69Auto and Manufacturing Corridors:Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennesseeand Alabama. Connections to Mexican manufacturing centres viaCiudad Juarez and Nuevo Laredo
I-77 and I-79Pittsburgh and Ohio Manufacturingcentres and points south
US 219Proposed NAFTA “Super-Highway”connecting Toronto to Atlantaand Miami
I-90 and I-87Proposed NAFTA “Super-Highway”connecting Toronto to Atlantaand Miami
I-94Chicago and uppermidwest. WesternCanada and USA
HamiltonHamilton
I-75
I-79
401TorontoToronto
Within GTAH, growth will continue to Within GTAH, growth will continue to favour favour north and west 905 communities north and west 905 communities
Population Population TorontTorontoo
DurhaDurham m
YorkYork Peel Peel HaltonHalton HamiltoHamiltonn
GTAHGTAH
Share of Share of Growth Growth
2011 to 20312011 to 2031
19%19% 18%18% 24%24% 18%18% 15%15% 6%6% 100%100%
2031 Share 2031 Share
of Total of Total 36%36% 11%11% 17%17% 19%19% 9%9% 8%8% 100%100%
EmploymeEmployment nt
TorontTorontoo
DurhaDurham m
YorkYork Peel Peel HaltonHalton HamiltoHamiltonn
GTAHGTAH
Share of Share of Growth Growth
2011 to 20312011 to 2031
14%14% 13%13% 28%28% 23%23% 16%16% 8%8% 100%100%
2031 Share 2031 Share
of Total of Total 38%38% 8%8% 18%18% 20%20% 9%9% 7%7% 100%100%
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2011
Toronto-905 relationship is already Toronto-905 relationship is already more balanced than commonly more balanced than commonly thoughtthought
152,000
74,000
9,300
102,000130,000
72,000
Commuting Flows 2006 Census
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on 2006 Census Data
Infrastructure plans geared towards Infrastructure plans geared towards transit, but roads still matter transit, but roads still matter
Greenbelt will not significantly Greenbelt will not significantly restrict growth until well past 2031restrict growth until well past 2031
Niagara EscarpmentNiagara Escarpment
Oak Ridges MoraineOak Ridges Moraine
Protected Protected CountrysideCountryside
ClaringtonClaringtonKingKing
EastEastGwillimburyGwillimbury
WhitchurchWhitchurchStouffvilleStouffville
UxbridgeUxbridge
GeorginaGeorgina
ScugogScugog
BrockBrock
BramptonBrampton
MississaugaMississauga
OakvilleOakville
VaughanVaughan
MarkhamMarkham
TorontoToronto
PickeringPickering
AjaxAjax
WhitbyWhitbyRichmondRichmond
HillHill
NewmarketNewmarket
AuroraAurora
CaledonCaledon
BurlingtonBurlington
HaltonHaltonHillsHills
MiltonMilton
NiagaraNiagara
OshawaOshawa
HamiltonHamilton
GREENBELT PLAN AREAGREENBELT PLAN AREA
Approximate Urban Land Approximate Urban Land Requirement Beyond Requirement Beyond Existing Existing Boundaries Boundaries
Note: (Map is not to scale)Note: (Map is not to scale)
Conditions create an incredible Conditions create an incredible market opportunity for the City of market opportunity for the City of VaughanVaughan