Nabfutures99

JeopardyJeopardy

According to the Do-It-Yourself According to the Do-It-Yourself Encyclopedia, their installation and Encyclopedia, their installation and service were for a long time service were for a long time considered a job to be attempted considered a job to be attempted only by skilled techniciansonly by skilled technicians

##1

What are TVs

This analyst was talking about what This analyst was talking about what industry when he said “Wall St industry when he said “Wall St makes a mistake every time it looks makes a mistake every time it looks at earnings based on current at earnings based on current accounting”accounting”

##2

What is the cable industry

according to Paul Kagan in 1970

Name the CEO who said ”The Name the CEO who said ”The scheme of this company is to go scheme of this company is to go contrary to what they teach in contrary to what they teach in business school as best practice, business school as best practice, which is earn money, pay taxes and which is earn money, pay taxes and pay dividends !”pay dividends !”

##3

Who is John Malone of TCI Cable to Business Week in 1981

More than 100k users were blocked More than 100k users were blocked from getting this record setting from getting this record setting event in 1999event in 1999

##4

What was the Super Bowl. More than 100k cable viewers in

Georgia lost their feeds for at least part of the game due to

cable system failures

You Just Never knowYou Just Never know

History has a way of repeating History has a way of repeating itselfitself

You Just Never knowYou Just Never know

History has a way of repeating History has a way of repeating itselfitself

Looking back to look forwardLooking back to look forwardLooking back to look forwardLooking back to look forward

19761976All those things we lived withoutAll those things we lived without

FaxFax PCsPCs PC SoftwarePC Software WalkmanWalkman Cable TVCable TV Video GamesVideo Games Cell PhonesCell Phones InternetInternet

LAN/WansLAN/Wans USA TodayUSA Today DVDDVD MicrosoftMicrosoft Direct TVDirect TV CD PlayersCD Players VCRsVCRs

Did you predict you would need any of them?Did you predict you would need any of them?

Or that 20 years later you couldn't live Or that 20 years later you couldn't live without them many of them ?without them many of them ?

Most of the winners didn’t exist Most of the winners didn’t exist or were laggardsor were laggards

CompaqCompaq

DellDell

GatewayGateway

Intuit (Quicken)Intuit (Quicken)

TCI, MTV, ESPNTCI, MTV, ESPN

Video GamesVideo Games

Novell, Cisco Novell, Cisco

Yahoo, AmazonYahoo, Amazon

MicrosoftMicrosoft

Direct TVDirect TV

Asian Asian Manufacturers Manufacturers of CE of CE

Do you think the next 20 years are going to Do you think the next 20 years are going to be any different ?be any different ?

We are Entering a New Age!We are Entering a New Age!

The Age of....The Age of....

Defragmentation of MediaDefragmentation of Media

All Media is becoming a stream of digital bits

Goodbye AnalogGoodbye Analog

VHS TapesVHS Tapes

TelevisionTelevision

NewslettersNewsletters

CableCable

RadioRadio

Cellular PhonesCellular Phones

NewspapersNewspapers

DVDDVD

HDTVHDTV

EmailEmail

Digital CableDigital Cable

Satellite RadioSatellite Radio

Digital PhonesDigital Phones

The Drudge The Drudge ReportReport

Hello DigitalHello Digital

In a Digital WorldIn a Digital WorldBits don’t care if they are Bits don’t care if they are

AudioAudioVideoVideo

AnimationAnimationor ?or ?

Maybe we need to rethink Maybe we need to rethink some things….some things….

#1 What is Radio ?What is Radio ?

Is it still defined by spectrum OR ?Is it still defined by spectrum OR ?– Is it a kid with a realaudio server Is it a kid with a realaudio server

and a CD Player ?and a CD Player ?– Is it 2000 channels of internet audio Is it 2000 channels of internet audio

from Spinner.Aol.com ?from Spinner.Aol.com ?– Is it a football game delivered via Is it a football game delivered via

cellphones to a carcellphones to a car

Is radio still radio if there are pictures Is radio still radio if there are pictures or video ?or video ?

#2 What is a Broadcaster ?What is a Broadcaster ?

Every company is a broadcaster offering Every company is a broadcaster offering multimedia presentationsmultimedia presentations– Dell, GM, Intel, P&G…Dell, GM, Intel, P&G…

Self Broadcasting will be very cheapSelf Broadcasting will be very cheap– For 5k a month you reach a niche audience For 5k a month you reach a niche audience

that used to watch your showsthat used to watch your shows

There will be millions of video channels There will be millions of video channels within 5 yearswithin 5 years

People will watch Internet video People will watch Internet video interchangably with traditional TVinterchangably with traditional TV

Audience FragmentationAudience Fragmentation

Unlimited content means ultimate Unlimited content means ultimate fragmentation - Personal Channelsfragmentation - Personal Channels

People go to the net for Information, People go to the net for Information, News, Entertainment and PassionsNews, Entertainment and Passions– You can find anything on the net and You can find anything on the net and

people look for things they cant find people look for things they cant find elsewhereelsewhere

– People will say No to ER if they can People will say No to ER if they can watch their favorite ??? video watch their favorite ??? video whenever they waywhenever they way

#3

Platform IndependencePlatform Independence

Broadcasters must become platform Broadcasters must become platform independent content providersindependent content providers– Internet, DTV, Download, User Internet, DTV, Download, User

Integrated Content ?Integrated Content ?– Stop thinking linear and think Stop thinking linear and think

parallelparallel– All content is usable on demand All content is usable on demand

- stop wasting it- stop wasting it– Aggregate Hours = Shelf SpaceAggregate Hours = Shelf Space

#4

Content Explosion by 2001Content Explosion by 2001

Creation tools are dropping leading to Creation tools are dropping leading to user creation of zillions of hoursuser creation of zillions of hours

Millions of hours of dusty content will Millions of hours of dusty content will find lifefind life

The challenge will be how to manage The challenge will be how to manage and display it. Media Asset and display it. Media Asset Management systems will explodeManagement systems will explode

Broadcasters must learn to be leading Broadcasters must learn to be leading aggregators of these sourcesaggregators of these sources

#5

The Net is TV and TV is the NetThe Net is TV and TV is the Net

Today’s Kids don’t distinguish, they Today’s Kids don’t distinguish, they want to be entertained & informedwant to be entertained & informed

Your Video Monitor will connect to a Your Video Monitor will connect to a computer connected to a digital portcomputer connected to a digital port

You will tell the computer what channel You will tell the computer what channel OR website you want content to come OR website you want content to come from and if its right now or laterfrom and if its right now or later

That computer will receive digital media That computer will receive digital media and decide how and when to play itand decide how and when to play it

#6

DTV is coming fastDTV is coming fast

100% of PC Monitors are DTV 100% of PC Monitors are DTV compatiblecompatible

PCs will look like VCRs PCs will look like VCRs – HDTV Decoders will be standard like HDTV Decoders will be standard like

DVD has become todayDVD has become today

17mm people have PCs/TVs in the 17mm people have PCs/TVs in the same room. They will combinesame room. They will combine– But the PC will win over set top But the PC will win over set top

boxes because personal creativity is boxes because personal creativity is the driving force. the driving force.

#7

DTV is coming fastDTV is coming fast

Websites and Channels will be the Websites and Channels will be the same thing to our kids. You will tell the same thing to our kids. You will tell the computer what channel OR website computer what channel OR website you want content to come from and you want content to come from and whenwhen

That computer will receive digital That computer will receive digital media and you will decide how and media and you will decide how and when to play itwhen to play it

#7

New Revenue ModelsNew Revenue Models

The Killer Revenue Model hasn’t been The Killer Revenue Model hasn’t been invented yet.invented yet.

Revenue per user will be more important Revenue per user will be more important than ratings when a 1 is huge.than ratings when a 1 is huge.– Lifestyle value of the content is more Lifestyle value of the content is more

important w/interactivityimportant w/interactivity

Think yield for your digital spectrum. Think yield for your digital spectrum. Downloading the latest CD or software Downloading the latest CD or software package might more sense then a tv package might more sense then a tv showshow

#8

Selling is a core competencySelling is a core competency

Are you a company ready to sell things Are you a company ready to sell things in 2 years that don’t exist todayin 2 years that don’t exist today

Are you looking for new digital Are you looking for new digital products to sell that differentiate youproducts to sell that differentiate you

Are you experimenting with your Are you experimenting with your salesforce at all ?salesforce at all ?

Are you willing to invest in a NTR Are you willing to invest in a NTR salesforce ?salesforce ?

#9

The Little Kid Effect The Little Kid Effect

With in 5 years there will be a new With in 5 years there will be a new media type,that we can’t imagine today media type,that we can’t imagine today invented by a child under the age of 15invented by a child under the age of 15

He or She didn’t want to do homework, He or She didn’t want to do homework, so they invented the new killer appso they invented the new killer app

It will change the way we interact with It will change the way we interact with the netthe net

#10