Myanmar: The Black Swan of Global Tin? Dr Nicholas J Gardiner 1 & John P Sykes 2,3,4 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK 2 Director, Greenfields Research, UK 3 Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University, Australia 4 Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia Collaborators: Cui Lin, ITRI, China Allan Trench, Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University and Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia
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Myanmar The Black Swan of Global Tin - Gardiner & Sykes - May 2015 - ITRI Conference
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Myanmar: The Black Swan of Global Tin?
Dr Nicholas J Gardiner1 & John P Sykes2,3,4
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK 2Director, Greenfields Research, UK
3Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University, Australia 4Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia
Collaborators:
Cui Lin, ITRI, China Allan Trench, Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University and Centre for Exploration
Targeting, University of Western Australia
What is a Black Swan?
An unpredictable, rare, but nevertheless high impact event
“a rare bird in the lands, and very much like a black swan”
Juvenal, 1st Cent AD
Improbable but high impact
-1000%
0%
1000%
2000%
3000%
4000%
5000%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Global Tin Production 2014 (t) and % Change from 2009
Source: Kettle et al., 2014, 2015 (ITRI)
How does Myanmar fit into the global tin industry?
Tin prices are at 30-year highs Long term tin price history
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
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90
20
00
20
10
2014 Inflation Adjusted Tin Price (US$/t)
Long term tin price histogram
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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45
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0 to 5 5 to 10 10 to15
15 to20
20 to25
25 to30
30 to35
35 to40
Price range, $000/tonne, 2010 real terms
Prices at 30 year highs
Number of years in each price band
Recent prices mainly is this
range
Source: DiFrancesco et al., 2014 (USGS), Crawford et al., 2014 (USBOL), Kettle et al., 2015 (ITRI)
Initially due to electronics…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Lead-free solder Lead solder
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 7 of 18
Lead-free solder as a % of global shipments
Conversion to tin
solder drove tin
prices
Source: ITRI
…and Chinese demand
Tinplate: 54,500t (16%)
Chemicals: 54,200t (16%)
Brass/Bronze: 18,600t (5%)
Glass: 7,000t (2%)
Others: 37,500t (11%)
China: 102,900t (30% of tin & 58%
of solder)
ROW: 73,600t (21% of tin & 42% of
solder)
Solder: 176,500t (51%)
Tin Consumption (2013e)
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 8 of 18 Source: Kettle et al., 2014 (ITRI)
• Kettle, P., Lin, C., Tianhua, R., Mulqueen, T., & Davidson, V., (Feb. 2015), Tin Monitor, CRU & ITRI.
• Kettle, P., Pearce, J., Lin, C., & Sykes, J.P., (2014). Tin Industry Review, ITRI
• Sykes, J.P., (2013). Structural changes in mine supply: Case studies in tin and tantalum, Metal Pages Electronic & Specialty Metals (Shanghai, China), 11 September.
• Sykes, J.P., Kettle, P., Staffurth, N., & Davies, R.S., (2014). New Tin Supply, Greenfields Research & ITRI
• Other data referenced as ‘ITRI’ provided on an ad hoc basis.