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ASSIGNMENT

Course Code : MS-95

Course Title : Research Methodology for Management Decisions

Assignment No. : 95/TMA /SEM-II/2010Coverage : All Blocks

Note: Attempt all the questions and send it to the coordinator of the study centre, you areattached with.

1. You have drafted a questionnaire to find out the reasons for decline in sales of a product.Pretest your questionnaire with hypothetical data. Suggest the modifications required

based on the results in the drafted questionnaire.

Solution:

Branding (and corporate identity)

*did we create an unique position for the company-yes

*did we create an unique position for the product-not effectively, needs a second visit.

*did we create unique visibility

-not effectively*did we make it easy to identify

-not effectively

*did we make it easy to buy-not so easy

*did we make it easy to sell

-not so easily.-----------------------------------------------------------

Personal Selling ,

*did we inform the customers/ prospects-yes

*did we create awareness

-not so effectively*did we present the product

-yes

*did we influence the customer

-not so effectively*did we sell benefits

-not so effectively

*did we help the customer to make the buying decision-not so effectively

*did we seek commitment

-no

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*did we help to close the sale.

-no

--------------------------------------Sales Promotion

*did we inform the customers

-yes*did we physically present

-yes

*did we influence the customers-not effectively

*did we help the customers to feel the product

-yes

*did we help the customer to make the buying decision-not effectively

*did we offer consumer incentives

-no, we did not offer

*did we help the final transactions-no, we did not.

--------------------------------------------Public Relations (and publicity)

*did we publicise the company

-we did.

*did we publicise the product-yes, we did.

*did we publicise the company's research/ development

-not effectively*did we publicise the company image

-not effectively

*did we create the company brand-not effectively

*did we inform public

-yes*did we communicate with the community.

-yes

*did we establish relations with government

-yes , we did.*did we establish community relations

-yes, we did.

--------------------------------------------------------------------Advertising (above and below the line)

ABOVE THE LINE

*did we MASS inform the customers/ prospects-yes.

*did we create MASS awareness

-yes

*did we present the product

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-not so well.


-not effectively*did we sell benefits

-not effectively

*did we help the customer to make the buying decision-not effectively

BELOW THE LINE*did we physically present

-yes, we did.

*did we make it visible at the point of sale.

-yes.*did we influence the customers

-not effectively.


-yes.*did we help the customer to make the buying decision

-not effectively*did we offer consumer incentives

-no.

*did we help the final transactions

-no.*did we display and promote

-yes

*did we merchandise the product-not effectively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sponsorship*did we MASS inform the customers/ prospects

-yes.

*did we create MASS awareness-yes


-yes

*did we influence the customer-not effictively

*did we sell benefits

-not effectively---------------------------------------------------------

Packaging

*did we MASS inform the customers/ prospects-yes

*did we create MASS awareness

-yes.


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-yes


-not convincingly.*did we make it visible at the point of sale

-not convincingly

--------------------------------------------------------------Merchandising (and point-of-sale)

*did we create visiblity at the point of sale.

-very little.*did we influence the customers

-marginally


-yes*did we help the customer to make the buying decision

-not effectively

*did we offer consumer incentives

-no*did we help the final transactions

-not effectively*did we display and promote

-yes

*did we merchandise the product

-not effectively--------------------------------------------------------------------

EMarketing (and Internet promotions)

*did we inform-yes

*did we talk to individuals

-limited*did we focus on niche market

-not effectively

*did we inform the decision makers directly-not effectively

*did we advertise cost efficiently

-not so efficiently

----------------------------------------------------------------THE AREAS WHICH AFFECTED THE SALES PERFORMANCE

-branding needs rethinking

--poor product positioning.-not effective awareness at the point of sales.

-poor selling efforts.

-ineffective merchandising.

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2. What is a Semantic Differential Scale? Explain the steps in construction of the scale.

When will you use this scale?

Solution:

The semantic differential scale (SDS) is a scaling tool which has been used frequently for

measuring social attitudes, particularly in the fields of linguistics and social psychology.Typically the scale is a seven- point bipolar rating scale using adjectival opposites,

although some studies have used five-

and six-point scales . The SDS has been used extensively inlanguage attitude studies as a means of measuring subjects attitudes towards various

languages, dialects, accents, as well as the speakers of different varieties. Usually a tape is

played of various speakers and subjects are asked to listen to the voices and make judgements

about the speakers personality, looks, etc. using an SDS. For example, a subject might beasked to rate a speech sample in terms of a number of personality features. A feature such as

honesty, for example, would be represented by the semantic differential scale in the following

form:

honest 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 dishonestThere are nearly always at least eight different pairs of adjectives, and quite often there are a

dozen or more.This scale has the advantage that the subjects can indicate whether they judge the speaker to

be extremely honest or dishonest by marking the extremities (1 or 7, respectively), or whether

they have not formed an opinion of the speakers honesty by marking position 4, a neutral

position half way between the two extremes. One advantage of this technique is that it forcessubjects to focus on the expected dimensions since the categories are already provided

Another advantage is that it is relatively easily implemented. It is not a difficult concept forlay people to understand since essentially all you are asking them to do is to decide whether

they think a speaker is or isnt x, or they dont know. Nor is the procedure complex since all

that is required is for the subject to make some sort of judgement and circle a number.

Therefore the SDS still appears to be among the best

available instruments for measuring multi-component conceptsand has been employed very successfully in attitude studies.

There are two main components of a semantic differential scale: (1) the adjectives; and (2)

the layout of the scale itself. In designing a scale which can be used easily by subjects as wellas providing meaningful results for the researcher, the researcher must make a number of

decisions regarding both of these components. I will begin with the selection of adjectives

since this is the most crucial aspect.2. Selection of Adjectives

In selecting adjectives, the researcher should not simply think up a range of adjectives he/she

thinks might sound adequate and use them straight away in a study. There are certainprocedures which should be followed to maximise the relevance of traits in order to make the

data meaningful. It is standard and almost essential that a pilot study be carried out in order to

ascertain which measures are most appropriate for the study at hand .

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The first step was to conduct a pilot study to elicit adjectives

from a sample group. This sample group would be played a tape of speech samples and then

be encouraged to discuss freely their impressions of the speakers they had just heard. He thendevised a prototype SDS using the most common adjectives elicited from these discussions.

This scale was then tested using another subject group. Finally, responses were quantified

and inter-correlated in order to determine whether fewer or more basic dimensions could beidentified so a final SDS could be prepared to be used in the main study. While this process is

a good way of ensuring meaningful adjectives, unfortunately it does not usually elicit many

antonyms for the most common (and relevant) adjectives. These are left for the researcher todevise.

\2.1 Antonyms

A decision needs to be made regarding whether the antonyms are going to be complementaryopposites (for example honestdishonest) or whether they are going to be gradable and

therefore more subtle, for example (entertaining boring). At first glance using

complementary antonyms seems more straight forward, and it can be a simple process for

many adjectives, especially those on which a negative morpheme can be added (successfulunsuccessful; honest dishonest; patientimpatient; educateduneducated; sincere

insincere; kind unkind; reliableunreliable). Alternatively, the negator not can precedejust about any adjective (richnot rich; goodnot good; generousnot generous), but this

is less satisfactory because it does not really tell you very much. For example, not rich does

not necessarily mean the same as poor. While the points on the scale allow for degrees of

judgement, there is no way of telling whether the subject considers notr rich to mean poor orperhaps of middle income.

For adjectives such as this gradable antonyms might be more meaningful. For example, not

generous does not necessarily mean stingy, it could just mean careful or thrifty, and thereforestingy is more meaningful than not generous. Similarly, sophisticated is a less ambiguous

antonym for common than uncommon (which can also mean rare). This raises the very

difficult problem of which antonym to choose because it is not always clear which adjectivesare more appropriate. The best way to illustrate the complexities of making a decision is by

giving some examples. The list below shows some alternatives for a small range of

adjectives. All have either been found in attitude studies or were elicited as part of my ownpilot study.

Possible Antonyms

serious

good sense of humour, funny, cheerful, wittyfriendly

unfriendly, unsociable, stand-offish, snobbish,

stuck-up,distant, cold, shy

unsuccessful

successful, ambitious, satisfiedlikeable

unpleasant, unpopular

educated

uneducated, unskilled

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intelligent

unintelligent, slow, dull, dumb, uneducated

unkindkind, warm-hearted, helpful, generous, easy going trustworthy

untrustworthy, dishonest, two-faced, deceitful

sincereinsincere, dishonest, two-faced, deceitful

easy-going

fussy, perfectionist, highly strung, uptight,particular,

fastidious

A person who is not friendly may be a snob, or shy, or neither. Perfectionist and highly

strung are two antonyms for easy-going, yet the former is relating to individuals actions, thelatter to their temperament. Dishonest, two-faced, and deceitful are all antonyms for both

trustworthy and sincere.

It can also be seen even from this small sample that some antonyms are more appropriate

than others. For example uneducated is a more appropriate antonym for educated thanunskilled because being uneducated does not necessarily mean being unskilled.

It can be seen that sometimes it is better to use complementary antonyms, and at other timesgradable ones. However, there is no reason why a combination of complementary and gradable

antonyms could not be used on the same scale. In fact it may be wiser to do so since both have

their advantages and disadvantages, depending on the particular adjectives selected.

2.2 Homonyms and ambiguities

It is tempting to take adjectives from someone elses study thinking that since someone else

has used them then they must be okay. However, as we shall see below, there can be pitfallsin doing this. Apart from eliciting adjectives, as part of my pilot study I decided to also test

out some adjectives used in previous studies. One unforseen complication arose with the

adjective pair intelligentdull. I found the feature dull was misinterpreted due to a voicequality of one speaker. Because this speaker had a quiet, monotone voice, it was suspected

that at least one subject considered dull to mean boring rather than unintelligent. This was

apparent since the majority of subjects rated this particular speaker as being somewhatintelligent, although quite unsocial.

Another point to note is that the meaning of the adjectives must be clear or they are likely to

be misinterpreted by the subjects. The following is the list of adjectives which they selected

from prior literature:dullsharp

complexsimple

positivenegativesmartdumb worthlessvaluable difficulteasy

goodbad

carefulsloppyweakstrong

thinthick

roughsmooth

fastslow

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It is difficult to imagine what is meant when a speaker is described as thin or thick,

or asrough or smooth. Even the positivenegative dimension is somewhat ambiguous. Does it

equate to optimisticpessimistic or as confidenthesitant? Is dullsharp referring to

intelligence, or wits, or perhaps to a sharp tongue? Does complexsimple meansophisticatedcommon or fastidiouseasy-going? If it means the latter, what is the

difference between complexsimple and difficulteasy? Are the dimensions of weak

strong, fastslow referring to physical or mental traits? Is smooth a positive or negative trait(where it can have connotations of sleazy or sneaky)? Clearly there are a lot of ambiguities in

this scale which means that the results it would provide would be almost impossible to

interpret.

Sometimes an adjective may be used which is not so much ambiguous but may be simplyuninterpretable.

Of course, another problem which may arise is that the adjectives may simply not be relevant

for your particular subject group. The notion of relevance is discussed in the followingsection.

2.3 Relevance

2.3.1 Relevance to subjects

Deciding which adjectives are appropriate will depend upon the subject group, the aims of the

study, and all the relevant social factors. Here it becomes even clearer why it may be moreprudent to take the time and elicit adjectives openendedly from a sample group and test them in

a pilot study as Williams (1974) suggested. It is important to have adjectives which will be both

meaningful to the study at hand and have some relevance to the particular subject group.Subject groups for the pilot study must be selected using the same criteria as the subjects to

be used in the main study and the same stimulus speakers should also be used. This procedure

is aimed at testing and eliminating any adjectives which may be inappropriate. Selectinggroups according to the criteria to be used in the main study is important because what is

relevant to one group might not be relevant to another.

2.3.2 Relevance to studyIn attitude studies the adjective pairs are broken down into underlying dimensions either by

factor analysis or they can be selected a priori on the

basis of previous research and sociolinguistic theory . There have been numerousways of dividing features. The more popular ones have been evaluation, potency, and activity

; competence, personal integrity and social attractiveness ; power and solidarity .

If the a priori method is chosen then care must be taken to ensure that the adjectives are trulyrepresentative of the dimensions selected. For example, the adjectives beautifulugly would

be much more suited to the dimension of social or physical attractiveness than to the

dimensions of power and solidarity.

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2.4 Number of adjectives

There seems to have been no real correlation up to now between the numbers of speakers

the subjects are required to listen to and the number of traits they must decide on when markingan SDS.

While it is necessary to include enough adjectives to provide the researcher with the desiredinformation, there should not be so many that the task becomes tedious for the subjects. The

number chosen should therefore partly depend upon the number of voices the subjects are

required to listen to. A large number of speakers and a large number of traits would mean thatthe subjects are much more likely to become bored than if one of these factors were reduced.

The scale would be more effective with either fewer traits or fewer speakers. The subjects

would feel less fatigued, and results would be more likely to be an accurate reflection of their

true opinions, resulting in more meaningful data.Of course this does not mean that if there are only two or three speakers then 40 or 50 traits

can be used! It is unlikely that so many would be useful in an attitude study anyway. A little

judgement and common sense must also prevail.

3. Layout of scale3.1 Positive or negative polarity

While the procedure of filling in an SDS is fairly straight forward , careful thought about the

arrangement of the polarity can make the task easier

on the subjects. Once again, this is not necessarily a straight forward procedure. Three mainareas of difficulty which can arise are discussed below.

(1) As illustrated earlier, one weakness of SDS is that it may not always be clear if a trait is

positively or negatively valued.(2) This example also illustrates the fact that adjectives can be gender- dependent. For

example, an adjective such as tough may be viewed positively by males but negatively by

females, regardless of the gender of the speaker, or it may be viewed negatively whenjudging females but not when judging males. It may also depend upon the social network of

the individual.

.(3) Another difficulty is that some features do not necessarily have a negative/positive polarity.

For example, features such as activepassive are not intrinsically positive or negative.

3.2 Five- six- seven- nine-point scalesAnother decision which needs to be made is how many points of choice should be on the scale.

A seven-point scale, on the other hand, has the advantages of

allowing neutrality and has enough gradation to give meaningful data, yet not be too tedious.I believe, therefore, that the seven-point scale is the best choice.

3.3 Circle numbers or tick linesThis may be a relatively minor point to consider, but choices here can make life a little easier

on the subjects. Whether numbers or lines are used (see Fig. 1 below) may depend upon the

scales polarity. For example, if all the positive attributes are listed on one side and all the

negative attributes are listed on the other, then numbers 1 and 7 are consistently associated

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with one polarity or the other and so the choice between numbers and lines will probably

make no difference. On the other hand, if the polarity is randomised, numbers could be

confusing as sometimes a 7 will refer to a positive polarity and other times a negativepolarity. In this case lines might be more appropriate.

Figure 1: Numbers vs Lines

Numbers: Educated 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 UneducatedLines:

Educated Uneducated

4. ConclusionIt can be seen that there are many considerations at every step when devising a semantic

differential scale. The decisions made can be crucial in eliciting data which is analysable,

meaningful, and relevant to the study at hand. Although the choices made depend on the

subjects and aims of the study, it has been shown that there axe many ways to improve thequality of an SDS. Conducting pilot studies is crucial to both elicit and test adjectives.

Antonyms (both gradable and complementary) should be selected according to those which

are the most meaningful, appropriate, and relevant to the aims of the study and to the

subjects. Homonyms and ambiguous antonyms should also be avoided. Finally, acombination of a seven-point scale, randomised polarity and lines instead of numbers on the

scale also seem to be the best way of laying out the scale.

3. Discuss the role of modeling in research in managerial decisions making with an

appropriate illustration. How is model validation done?

Solution:

IN MOST OF THE NORMAL DECISIONS, THE MANAGEMENT

TAKES ANY OF THESE APPROACHES.

Models of Decision Making

1. The Rational Model

Consists of a structured four-step sequence:

identifying the problem generating alternative solutions

selecting a solution

implementing and evaluating the solution

2.Simons Normative Model

- Based on premise that decision making is notrational

- Decision making is characterized by

* limited information processing* use of rules of thumb or shortcuts

* satisficing

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3.

Assets of Group Decision

Making Groups can accumulate more knowledge and facts

Groups have a broader perspective and consider more

alternative solutions Individuals who participate in decisions are more satisfied

with the decision and are more likely to support it.

Group decision making processes serve an importantcommunication function as well as a useful political

function.

--------------------------------------------Liabilities of Group Decision

Making

Groups often work more slowly than individuals.

Groups decisions involve considerable compromise thatmay lead to less than optimal decisions.

Groups are often dominated by one individual or a smallclique, thereby negating many of the virtues of group

processes.

Overreliance on group decision making can inhibit

managements ability to act quickly and decisively whennecessary.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------Individual vs. Group Decision

Making

In establishing objectives, groups are probably superior toindividuals because of the greater amount of knowledge

available to groups.

In identifying alternatives, the individual efforts of groupmembers encourage a broad search in various functional

areas of the organization.

In evaluating alternatives, the collective judgement of the

group, with its wider range of viewpoints, seems superiorto that of the individual decision maker.

===============================================

THE COMPANY USING THE RATIONAL APPROACH.Basic Guidelines Decision Making

1. Define the problem

This is often where people struggle. They react to what they think the problem is. Instead, seek tounderstand more about why you think there's a problem.

Defining the problem: (with input from yourself and others)

Ask yourself and others, the following questions:

a. What can you see that causes you to think there's a problem?

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b. Where is it happening?

c. How is it happening?

d. When is it happening?e. With whom is it happening? (HINT: Don't jump to "Who is causing the problem?" When

we're stressed, blaming is often one of our first reactions. To be an effective manager, you need

to address issues more than people.)f. Why is it happening?

g. Write down a five-sentence description of the problem in terms of "The following should be

happening, but isn't ..." or "The following is happening and should be: ..." As much as possible,be specific in your description, including what is happening, where, how, with whom and why.

(It may be helpful at this point to use a variety of research methods.

---------------------------------------------------

Defining complex problems:a. If the problem still seems overwhelming, break it down by repeating steps a-f until you have

descriptions of several related problems.

Verifying your understanding of the problems:

a. It helps a great deal to verify your problem analysis for conferring with a peer or someoneelse.

Prioritize the problems:a. If you discover that you are looking at several related problems, then prioritize which ones you

should address first.

b. Note the difference between "important" and "urgent" problems. Often, what we consider to

be important problems to consider are really just urgent problems. Important problems deservemore attention. For example, if you're continually answering "urgent" phone calls, then you've

probably got a more "important" problem and that's to design a system that screens and

prioritizes your phone calls.Understand your role in the problem:

a. Your role in the problem can greatly influence how you perceive the role of others. For

example, if you're very stressed out, it'll probably look like others are, too, or, you may resort tooquickly to blaming and reprimanding others. Or, you are feel very guilty about your role in the

problem, you may ignore the accountabilities of others.

----------------------------------------------2. Look at potential causes for the problem

a. It's amazing how much you don't know about what you don't know. Therefore, in this phase,

it's critical to get input from other people who notice the problem and who are effected by it.

b. It's often useful to collect input from other individuals one at a time (at least at first).Otherwise, people tend to be inhibited about offering their impressions of the real causes of

problems.

c. Write down what your opinions and what you've heard from others.d. Regarding what you think might be performance problems associated with an employee, it's

often useful to seek advice from a peer or your supervisor in order to verify your impression of

the problem.e.Write down a description of the cause of the problem and in terms of what is happening, where,

when, how, with whom and why.

----------------------------------------------------

3.Define the Goal or Objective

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In a sense, every problem is a situation that prevents us from achieving previously determined

goals. If a personal goal is to lead a pleasant and meaningful life, then any situation that wouldprevent it is viewed as a problem. Similarly, in a business situation, if a company objective is to

operate profitably, then problems are those occurrences which prevent the company from

achieving its previously defined profit objective. But an objective need not be a grand, overallgoal of a business or an individual. It may be quite narrow and specific. "I want to pay off the

loan on my car by May," or "The plant must produce 300 golf carts in the next two weeks," are

more limited objectives. Thus, defining the objective is the act of exactly describing the task orgoal.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. Identify alternatives for approaches to resolve the problem

a. At this point, it's useful to keep others involved (unless you're facing a personal and/oremployee performance problem). Brainstorm for solutions to the problem. Very simply put,

brainstorming is collecting as many ideas as possible, then screening them to find the best idea.

It's critical when collecting the ideas to not pass any judgment on the ideas -- just write them

down as you hear them.-------------------------------------------------------------

5. Select an approach to resolve the problemWhen selecting the best approach, consider:

a. Which approach is the most likely to solve the problem for the long term?

b. Which approach is the most realistic to accomplish for now? Do you have the resources? Are

they affordable? Do you have enough time to implement the approach?c. What is the extent of risk associated with each alternative?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6. Plan the implementation of the best alternative (this is your action plan)a. Carefully consider "What will the situation look like when the problem is solved?"

b. What steps should be taken to implement the best alternative to solving the problem? What

systems or processes should be changed in your organization, for example, a new policy orprocedure? Don't resort to solutions where someone is "just going to try harder".

c. How will you know if the steps are being followed or not? (these are your indicators of the

success of your plan)d. What resources will you need in terms of people, money and facilities?

e. How much time will you need to implement the solution? Write a schedule that includes the

start and stop times, and when you expect to see certain indicators of success.

f. Who will primarily be responsible for ensuring implementation of the plan?g. Write down the answers to the above questions and consider this as your action plan.

h. Communicate the plan to those who will involved in implementing it and, at least, to your

immediate supervisor.(An important aspect of this step in the problem-solving process is continually observation and

feedback.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7. Monitor implementation of the plan

Monitor the indicators of success:

a. Are you seeing what you would expect from the indicators?

b. Will the plan be done according to schedule?

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c. If the plan is not being followed as expected, then consider: Was the plan realistic? Are there

sufficient resources to accomplish the plan on schedule? Should more priority be placed on

various aspects of the plan? Should the plan be changed?-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8. Verify if the problem has been resolved or not

One of the best ways to verify if a problem has been solved or not is to resume normal operationsin the organization. Still, you should consider:

a. What changes should be made to avoid this type of problem in the future? Consider changes to

policies and procedures, training, etc.b. Lastly, consider "What did you learn from this problem solving?" Consider new knowledge,

understanding and/or skills.

c. Consider writing a brief memo that highlights the success of the problem solving effort, and

what you learned as a result. Share it with your supervisor, peers and subordinates=======================================================

FOR STRATEGIC DECISIONS, THE APPROACH IS AS FOLLOWS:

THE COMPANY ANALYSES THE FOLLOWING DATABASEAND APPLYS THE PROBELM SOLVING/ DECISION

MAKING APPROACH / FINALIZES THE PLAN.

-apply the pestel analysis with respect TO ITS BUSINESS

1.Political (incl. Legal)

-Environmental regulations and protection

[what are the government regualtions/ protection laws that must be observed ]

-Tax policies

what tax hinder the business and what taxes incentives are available]

-International trade regulations and restrictions

[ does the government encourage exports / with high tariffs on imports]

-Contract enforcement law/Consumer protection

[does the government enforce on consumer protection ]

-Employment laws]

[ is the government encouraging skilled immigrants with temp. permits]

-Government organization / attitude

[ does the government have a very positive attitude towards this industry]

-Competition regulation

[ are there regulation for limiting competition]

-Political Stability

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[ politically , does the government have a very stable government ]

-Safety regulations[ has the government adopted some of the modern safety regulations]

=================================================================

2.Economic

-Economic growth

[ what is the economic growth rate / what are the reasons ]

-Interest rates & monetary policies

[ are the interest rates under control / is there a sound monetary policies]

-Government spending

[is government spending is significant and is it under control ]

-Unemployment policy[what is the employment / unemployment policies of the government ]

-Taxation

[ has the taxation encouraged the industry ]

-Exchange rates[ is there well managed exchange controls and is it helping the industry]

-Inflation rates[ is the inflation well under control ]

-Stage of the business cycle[ is your industry is on the growth pattern]

-Consumer confidence[ is the consumer confidence is high/ strong and if not, why ]

==================================================

3.Social

-Income distribution

[is there balanced income distribution policy ]

-Demographics, Population growth rates, Age distribution

[ what is population growth and why ]

-Labor / social mobility

[ what are the labor policies and is there labor mobility]

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-Lifestyle changes

[ are there significant lifestyle changes taking place--more modernization/ why ]

-Work/career and leisure attitudes

[ are the population career minded and are seeking better lifestyle]

-Education

[ what are the education policies / is it successful ]

-Fashion, hypes

[are the people becoming fashion conscious ]

-Health consciousness & welfare, feelings on safety[ are the people becoming health consciousness]

-Living conditions

[ is the living conditions improving fast and spreading rapidly]

=========================================================4.Technological

Government research spending

[is the government spending on research and development]

Industry focus on technological effort

[are the industries focused on using improved technology]

New inventions and development

[ are new inventions being encouraged for developments]

Rate of technology transfer

[ is the rate of technology transfer is speeding up ]

(Changes in) Information Technology

[ is the information technology rapidly moving and is there government support]

(Changes in) Internet

[ is the internet usage rapidly increasing and why]

(Changes in) Mobile Technology

[is the Mobile technology rapidly developing and is there government support]

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5.External Assessment

Areas for opportunities and threats

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* Markets [ what is the market situation, which is forcing the change requirements

*Customers [ how can service the customer -internal / external -better .

* Industry [ is the industry trend ]* Competition [ is it the competitive situation

*Factors of business [ causing the change]

* Technology [ is it technology change ]===========================================================

STEP 6

CONDUCT A ''SWOT'' ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY'S RESOURCES.

Internal Assessment

Areas for strengths, weaknesses, and barriers to success

ORGANIZATION DIMENSIONS

*Culture [ is the working culture change ]

* Organization [ is the organization demanding change ]* Systems [ is it the systems change ]

* Management practices [ change in managemement process]

OTHER KEY DIMENSIONS

*Cost efficiency[ is it for cost efficiency ]

* Financial performance [ is it for financial performance improvement ]

* Quality [ is it for quality performance improvement*Service [ is it for service performance improvement

*Technology[ is it for technology performance improvement

* Market segments [ is it for sales performance improvement* Innovation[ is it for performance improvement

*new products[ is it for new product performance improvement

*Asset condition[ is it for financial performance improvement*productivity[ is it for financial performance improvement

=====================================================STEP 7

NOW THE CO. KNOWS WHERE IT STANDS.PRIORITY ISSUES

FROM THE ABOVE , DETERMINE THE CORE ISSUESWHICH NEEDS TO SOLVED WITH YOUR INVESTMENT.

STRATEGIC PROGRAMS

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FROM THE ABOVE CORE ISSUES , DETERMINE YOUR

STRATEGIC PROGRAMS.

Mission STATEMENT

VISION STATEMENT

Your CORE PURPOSE

Your CORE OBJECTIVES

Your Core markets;

Your CORE strategic thrusts.

BUSINESS DEFINITION:

The arena of products, services, customers, technologies, distribution methods, and geography in

which you'll compete to get results.

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STEP 8

WHERE DOES THE CO. WANTS TO GO

THE COMPANY ARRIVES AT THE FOLLOWING

DECISIONS AT THE END OF THE SESSIONS:

1.REVENUE BUDGET.

2.GROSS PROFIT BUDGET.3.NET PROFIT BUDGET.

4.SALES TOTAL FORECAST.5.SALES BY PRODUCTS.

6.OPERATIONAL EXPENSES BUDGET.

7.FIXED EXPENSES BUDGET.

8.PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT %

9.PROFITABILITY INCREMENT %10. RETURN ON INVESTMENT.

4. Write short note on the following:a. Factor loading and factor analysis

b. Different types of experimental design

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Solution:FACTOR ANALYSIS

Factor analysis is used to uncover the latent structure (dimensions) of a set of variables. It

reduces attribute space from a larger number of variables to a smaller number of factors.In many scientific fields, particularly behavioral and social sciences, variables such as

intelligence or leadership quality cannot be measured directly. Such variables, called

latent variables, can be measured by other quantifiable variables, which reflect theunderlying variables of interest. Factor analysis attempts to explain the correlations

between the observations in terms of the underlying factors, which are not directly

observable.

Factor analysis closely resembles principal components analysis. Both techniques uselinear combinations of variables to explain sets of observations on many variables. In

principal components, the intrinsic interest is in the observed variables. The combination of

variables is primarily a tool for simplifying the interpretation of the observed variables. In

factor analysis, the intrinsic interest is in the underlying factors, the observed variablesare relatively of little interest. Linear combinations are formed to derive the factors.

Factor analysis modelThe factor analysis model can be expressed in the matrix notation:

x = + f + U (1)

where

= {l ij} is a p k matrix of constants, called the matrix of factors loadings.f = random vector representing the k common factors.

U = random vector representing p unique factors associated with the original variables.

The common factors F1, F2, ,Fk are common to all X variables, and are assumed to havemean=0 and variance =1.. The unique factors are unique to Xi. The unique factors are also

assumed to have mean=0 and are uncorrelated to the common factors.

Equivalently, the covariance matrix S can be decomposed into a factor covariance matrixand an error covariance matrix:

S = T + (2)

whereY = Var {u}

T is the transpose of

The diagonal of the factor covariance matrix is called the vector of communalities where

FACTOR LOADINGS

The factor loadings are the correlation coefficients between the variables and factors.

Factor loadings are the basis for imputing a label to different factors. Analogous toPearson's r, the squared factor loading is the percentage of variance in the variable,

explained by a factor.

The sum of the squared factor loadings for all factors for a given variable is the variance inthat variable accounted for by all the factors, and this is called the communality. In

complete principal components analysis, with no factors dropped, communality is equal to

1.0, or 100% of the variance of the given variable.

The factor analysis model does not extract all the variance; it extracts only that proportion

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of variance, which is due to the common factors and shared by several items. The

proportion of variance of a particular item that is due to common factors (shared with other

items) is called communality. The proportion of variance that is unique to each item is thenthe respective item's total variance minus the communality.

The solution of equation (2) is not unique (unless the number of factors = 1), which means

that the factor loadings are inherently indeterminate. Any solution can be rotated arbitrarilyto obtain a new factor structure.

Various rotation strategies are proposed in the literature: Varimax, Oblimin, Quartimin, but

the most common rotation strategy is the Varimax rotation. The goal of these rotationstrategies is to obtain a clear pattern of loadings, i .e., the factors are somehow clearly

marked by high loadings for some variables and low loadings for other variables. This

general pattern is called Simple Structure.

Varimax rotation seeks to maximize the variances of the squared normalized factorloadings across variables for each factor. This is equivalent to maximizing the variances in

the columns of the matrix of the squared normalized factor loadings. :

Eigenvalues: The eigenvalue for a given factor reflects the variance in all the variables,

which is accounted for by that factor. A factor's eigenvalue may be computed as the sum ofits squared factor loadings for all the variables. The ratio of eigenvalues is the ratio of

explanatory importance of the factors with respect to the variables. If a factor has a loweigenvalue, then it is contributing little to the explanation of variances in the variables and

may be ignored

b. Different types of experimental designBefore an experiment is performed, the question of experimental design must be addressed.

Experimental design refers to the manner in which the experiment will be set up,

specifically the way the treatments were administered to subjects. Treatments will bedefined as quantitatively or qualitatively different levels of experience. For example, in an

experiment on the effects of caffeine, the treatment levels might be exposure to different

amounts of caffeine, from 0 to .0375 mg. In a very simple experiment there are two levelsof treatment; none, called the control condition, and some, called the experimental

condition.

The type of analysis or hypothesis test used is dependent upon the type of experimentaldesign employed. The two basic types of experimental designs are crossed and nested.

CROSSED DESIGNS

In a crossed design each subject sees each level of the treatment conditions. In a very

simple experiment, such as one that studies the effects of caffeine on alertness, each subjectwould be exposed to both a caffeine condition and a no caffeine condition. For example,

using the members of a statistics class as subjects, the experiment might be conducted as

follows. On the first day of the experiment, the class is divided in half with one half of theclass getting coffee with caffeine and the other half getting coffee without caffeine. A

measure of alertness is taken for each individual, such as the number of yawns during the

class period. On the second day the conditions are reversed; that is, the individuals whoreceived coffee with caffeine are now given coffee without and vice-versa. The size of the

effect will be the difference of alertness on the days with and without caffeine.

The distinguishing feature of crossed designs is that each individual will have more than

one score. The effect occurs within each subject, thus these designs are sometimes referred

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to as WITHIN SUBJECTS designs.

Crossed designs have two advantages. One, they generally require fewer subjects, because

each subject is used a number of times in the experiment. Two, they are more likely toresult in a significant effect, given the effects are real.

Crossed designs also have disadvantages. One, the experimenter must be concerned about

carry-over effects. For example, individuals not used to caffeine may still feel the effects ofcaffeine on the second day, even though they did not receive the drug. Two, the first

measurements taken may influence the second. For example, if the measurement of interest

was score on a statistics test, taking the test once may influence performance the secondtime the test is taken. Three, the assumptions necessary when more than two treatment

levels are employed in a crossed design may be restrictive.

NESTED DESIGNS

In a nested design, each subject receives one, and only one, treatment condition. Thecritical difference in the simple experiment described above would be that the experiment

would be performed on a single day, with half the individuals receiving coffee with

caffeine and half without receiving caffeine. The size of effect in this case is determined by

comparing average alertness between the two groups.The major distinguishing feature of nested designs is that each subject has a single score.

The effect, if any, occurs between groups of subjects and thus the name BETWEENSUBJECTS is given to these designs.

The relative advantages and disadvantages of nested designs are opposite those of crossed

designs. First, carry over effects are not a problem, as individuals are measured only once.

Second, the number of subjects needed to discover effects is greater than with crosseddesigns.

Some treatments by their nature are nested. The effect of sex, for example, is necessarily

nested. One is either a male or a female, but not both. Current religious preference isanother example. Treatment conditions which rely on a pre-existing condition are

sometimes called demographic or blocking factors.

and are usually preferable. Often one compares against a standard or traditional treatmentthat acts as baseline.

RANDOMIZATION

There is an extensive body of mathematical theory that explores the consequences ofmaking the allocation of units to treatments by means of some random mechanism such as

tables of random numbers, or the use of randomization devices such as playing cards or

dice. Provided the sample size is adequate, the risks associated with random allocation

(such as failing to obtain a representative sample in a survey, or having a serious imbalancein a key characteristic between a treatment group and a control group) are calculable and

hence can be managed down to an acceptable level. Random does not mean haphazard, and

great care must be taken that appropriate random methods are used.REPLICATION

Measurements are usually subject to variation, both between repeated measurements and

between replicated items or processes. Multiple measurements of replicated items arenecessary so the variation can be estimated.

BLOCKING

Blocking is the arrangement of experimental units into groups (blocks) that are similar to

one another. Blocking reduces known but irrelevant sources of variation between units and

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thus allows greater precision in the estimation of the source of variation under study.

ORTHOGONALITY

Orthogonality concerns the forms of comparison (contrasts) that can be legitimately andefficiently carried out. Contrasts can be represented by vectors and sets of orthogonal

contrasts are uncorrelated and independently distributed if the data are normal. Because of

this independence, each orthogonal treatment provides different information to the others.If there are T treatments and T 1 orthogonal contrasts, all the information that can be

captured from the experiment is obtainable from the set of contrasts.

FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTSUse of factorial experiments instead of the one-factor-at-a-time method. These are efficient

at evaluating the effects and possible interactions of several factors (independent variables).

Analysis of the design of EXPERIMENTS was built on the foundation of the ANALYSIS

OF VARIANCE , a collection of models in which the observed variance is partitionedinto components due to different factors which are estimated and/or tested.

5. A sample of 48 tools produced by a machine shows the following sequence of good (G)and defective (D) tools:

G G G G G G D D G G G G G G G G

G G D D D D G G G G G G D G G G

G G G G G G D D G G G G G D G G

Test the randomness at the 0.05 significance level.

Solution: Not known yet

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