MODERNIZING LARGE URBAN ARTERIALS MOBILITY · THINK : LIKE A FUTURIST: IS FP THINK : Fehr & Peers Research Initiative : 2014 topics: Demographics Vehicle evolution . what : part 1

MODERNIZING LARGE URBAN ARTERIALS

FOR INCREASED MOBILITY

2 COUNTYWIDE MULTIMODAL ARTERIAL PLAN

NACTO Designing Cities Conference, October 22 – 25, 2014

Saravana Suthanthira, Senior Transportation Planner, Alameda CTC October 23, 2014

ALAMEDA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION

Countywide Multimodal Arterial Plan

Improving multimodal mobility for better economic, health and environmental outcomes


Alameda County

• Geographic center of the Bay Area region

• Experiences most congestion in the region

• Arterials provide the opportunity for improving multimodal travel options better connecting land use


Project Success

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• Jurisdiction/partner agency participation and buy-in

• Coordination with: Countywide Transit Plan Goods Movement Plan

• Reliable macro-level analysis


Project Design Framework

• Stakeholder Engagement Plan

• Identify Arterial Network

• Data Collection Plan

• Travel Demand Forecasting White Paper

• Roadway Typologies

• GIS Cross-Sectional Tool Proof of Concept


Scope Overview


Summary Scope – Milestone #1


Identifying Arterial Network

• Plan will screen ALL arterials in the County

• Stratification system for identifying Arterial Network Cross-sectional improvements to

be identified for the entire Arterial Network

Focused evaluation of short- and long-term improvements on arterials of Countywide significance


Identifying Roadway Typologies • Typologies will be descriptive of:

Transportation function, modal emphasis Relative scale of local or longer distance travel Land use context

• Typologies will consider the potential for parallel facilities to create a complete street network

• Typologies will be consistent with priority goods movement and transit corridors


Potential Performance Measures

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FACILITY-SPECIFIC QUANTITATIVE PERFORMANCE MEASURES:

Auto Transit Pedestrian Bicycle Truck

Average Travel Speed Based on Countywide

Transit Plan

Level of Traffic Stress

Level of Traffic Stress Based on Countywide

Goods Movement Plan

Travel Reliability Pedestrian Crossing

Assessment

Capital Cost Effectiveness Operating Cost Effectiveness

FACILITY-SPECIFIC QUALITATIVE MEASURES: - Feasibility - Opportunities for TOD - Parking strategies - Economic benefits

COUNTYWIDE AND SUB-AREA MEASURES: - VMT/VMT per capita, GHG - Active transportation mode share - Social equity (investment and impacts of improvements) - Adopted TDM Strategies




Forecasting Approach Multiple Travel Demand Forecasting Scenarios:

1. Standard forecasts using the updated Alameda CTC Travel Demand Model with SCS land use

2. Alternative Scenario #1 – Behavioral Influence, reduced VMT

3. Alternative Scenario #2 – Technology influence, autonomous vehicles


Developing Preferred Cross-Sections • The GIS Cross-Sectional Tool will utilize roadway typology,

modal priorities, existing roadway cross-sections, and traffic forecasts to identify a set of recommended cross-sections for the Arterial Network

• Consultant team will coordinate with stakeholder agencies to develop the set of preferred cross-sections




Short- and Long-Term Improvements

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Corridor Improvement Concepts Physical (cross-section, longitudinal,

intersection) Transit and other modes Technology, systems, operations,

other strategies

Support Programs Transportation Demand

Management Parking Climate Initiative Programs


Questions?

Contact Information

Saravana Suthanthira

[email protected]

Alameda County Transportation Commission

Matthew Ridgway

[email protected]

FEHR & PEERS

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Future demographic, economic and technology trends on travel behavior and VMT

THINK LIKE A FUTURIST

IS FP THINK

Fehr & Peers Research Initiative

2014 topics: Demographics Vehicle evolution

what

part 1 DEMOGRAPHIC & SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS

Researched several potential changes in demographics and travel choice in relation to their impact on travel

FP THINK thinking like a futurist

trends 1970 TO 2004: INCREASE

FACTORS IMPACTING VMT trends *

* *

* * *

Trends marked with * actually work in the opposite direction of VMT change

FACTORS IMPACTING VMT trends

trends 2013 TO 2035: MIXED

part 2 VEHICLE EVOLUTION

Looked at autonomous and connected vehicles and their impact on how we think about transportation projects

FLEET ABSORPTION evolution vehicle

IMPACTS ON VMT to come? changes

Factor Reasons for VMT increase Reasons for VMT decrease

Driver Experience • Reduced stress • Multi-tasking and improved

passenger position

• Latent demand/congestion negates stress reduction

Safety

• Safety improvements reduce vehicle weight and costs

• Incident-related congestion is reduced

• Risk compensation • Liability concerns

Vehicle Cost of Ownership

• Reduced vehicle size decreases vehicle cost

• Insurance costs reduced

• Technology increases costs • Continued downward trend in

ownership rates

Previous Non-Drivers • Added population of new drivers

(elderly, disabled, under 16) • Out of reach for low-income and

many current non-drivers

CAPACITY OUTCOMES to come? changes

Source: http://www.fehrandpeers.com/fpthink/nextgenerationvehicles/

75%

Autonomous Fleet Mix

Capacity Increase

20-30%

30-40%

50-100% 95%

50%

F&P Slides

StreetScore+

Level of Traffic Stress Explained

• Ranges from LTS 1 (least stressful) to LTS 4 (most stressful)

• LTS 1 is acceptable for kids • LTS 2 is the maximum tolerated by the

“Interested but Concerned”

StreetScore+



EXISTING CONDITIONS Columbus Avenue, San Francisco

Filbert/Powell Union Green/Stockton Broadway/Grant

EXISTING CONDITIONS Columbus Avenue, San Francisco

Columbus Avenue, San Francisco EXISTING CONDITIONS

USERS OF THE STREET

Intersection: Columbus, Green, & Stockton PM Peak Hour

29% Transit

18% Auto

51% Pedestrian

2% Bicycle

EXISTING CONDITIONS

SIDEWALKS EXISTING CONDITIONS

3' 3'


3' 3'


TRANSIT & BICYCLES EXISTING CONDITIONS

STREETSCAPE & INTERSECTIONS EXISTING CONDITIONS

DESIGN CHALLENGE SCENARIO 1

Present a design for this location to best meet near-term needs of street-users

DESIGN CHALLENGE SCENARIO 2

The year is 2050. Autonomous vehicles form 50% of personal automobiles on this street. Present a design to best meet the anticipated needs of future street-users knowing that:

• Autonomous technology may allow for narrower vehicles that travel closer

together

• Vehicle mile traveled (VMT) per capita may be between 85% and 100% of current levels due to demographic change



DESIGN CHALLENGE SCENARIOS

1. Present a design for this location to best meet near-term needs of street-users

2. The year is 2050. Autonomous vehicles form 50% of personal automobiles on this street. Present a design to best meet the anticipated needs of future street-users knowing that:

• Autonomous technology may allow for narrower vehicles that travel

closer together

• Vehicle mile traveled (VMT) per capita may be between 85% and 100% of current levels due to demographic change



MODERNIZING LARGE URBAN ARTERIALS MOBILITY · THINK : LIKE A FUTURIST: IS FP THINK : Fehr & Peers Research Initiative : 2014 topics: Demographics Vehicle evolution . what : part 1

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