8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
1/17
Fehr&Peers Page|1 October4,2011
TechnicalMemorandum
Date: October4,2011
To: JimHecht,HDR
From: Fehr&Peers
Subject: PreliminaryEstimatesofRidershipfortheDowntownLosAngelesStreetcar
1.0 DescriptionofMethodology
Traditionalmethods of forecasting transit ridership often employ regional travel demandmodels to
predict ridership. Suchmodels are relatively unresponsive to changes in station-level land use and
transitservicecharacteristics.InthecaseofLosAngeles,thelargesizesofthetrafficanalysiszonesin
theMetrotraveldemandmodelprecludedetailedlandusedatacollectionanddifferentiationatthe
station-level.Furthermore,theMetrotraveldemandmodeldoesnothaveastreetcarcalibratedmode,
meaningitsusewouldrequirecalibrationandvalidationofanewstreetcarmodeoftravelinthemodel.
Alternativelythestreetcarwouldhavetobeclassifiedusingamodethatcurrentlyexistsin themodel
suchasbusorlightrail,whichhavedifferentridershipcharacteristicsthanstreetcar.Therefore,forthe
purposesoftheAlternativesAnalysis(AA)Study,wehavechosennottousetheMetrotraveldemand
modelforforecastingDowntownLosAngelesStreetcar(LAStreetcar)ridershipandinsteaduseaDirect
RidershipModelcalibratedandvalidatedtostreetcarforridershipforecasting. DirectRidershipModels(DRMs)aredirectlyandquantitativelyresponsivetolanduseandtransitservice
characteristicswithintheimmediatevicinityandwithinthecatchmentareaoftransitstations.Theycan
predictridershipatindividualstationsbasedonlocalstationareaandsystemcharacteristics.DRMsare
basedonempiricalrelationshipsfoundthroughstatisticalanalysisofstationridershipandlocalstation
characteristics.
The effects of station-level variables are expected to be highly significant in accurately forecasting
streetcarridership.Whilestreetcarsystemsareusedfortraditionalcommutetrips,ourresearchwith
transitagenciessuggeststheymoreoftenprovideaccessandcirculation fordowntownorcitycenter
areas.Theyservetouristneedsandoftenduplicateexistingtransitserviceprovidedbybus.Thus,itwasexpected that individual station-area characteristics greatly affect boardings and overall ridership
projections.Recognizingthatvariablesaffectingstreetcarridershiparedifferentthanthoseforregional
rail systems, the basis for analysis draws from the characteristics of existing streetcar systems in
Portland, Seattle, and Tacoma. These systems were chosen because they are most similar to the
proposedLAStreetcar.
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
2/17
Fehr&Peers Page|2 October4,2011
1.1DataCollection
RidershipdatawascollectedforthePortland,SeattleandTacomastreetcarsystemsatthesystemlevel,
andwhereavailable,attheindividualstationlevel.Variablescollectedatthesystemlevelincluderoute
length,openingyear,frequencyofservice,traincapacity,fare(includingpresenceoffreestations),and
transferpolicy. At the station level, datawere gathered for the area within a quarter-mile1 of the
station and included intersecting transit, retail andgeneral employment density, householddensity,
streetconnectivity,distancebetweenstations,numberofhotelsandnumberofspecialeventscenters.
Table1showsthecharacteristicsofthecomparativesystems.Table2showsthedatacollectedatthe
corridorlevel.Table3showsdatacollectedatthestationarealevel.
TABLE1ResearchedStreetcarSystems
System Route
Length
(both
directions)
Number
of
Stations
Fare Weekday
Spanof
Service
Peak
Weekday
Frequency
(trains/hour)
Daily
System
Boardings
Daily
Boardings
perMile
Portland
StreetcarSystem
8.0Miles 47 $2.10
(Freeatmajority
of
stops)
5:30AM
11:30PM
4.6 11,700 1,460
Seattle
SouthLake
UnionLine
2.6Miles 12 $2.50 6:00AM
9:00PM
4.0 2,300 880
Tacoma
Streetcar
System
2.7Miles 8 Free 5:20AM
10:10PM
5.0 2,900 1,070
TABLE2CorridorLevelDataCollectionVariableClass VariableList
Ridership AverageWeekdayBoardings,PeakMonth AverageWeekendBoardings,PeakMonth AverageWeekdayBoardings,Off-PeakMonth AverageWeekendBoardings,Off-PeakMonth
ServiceCharacteristics RouteLength(miles,countingbothdirections) OpeningYear AMPeakFrequency(minutes) PMPeakFrequency(minutes)
DailyAverageFrequency(minutes) TrainCapacity IntersectingFeederBusesDuringOperatingHours IntersectingFeederTrainsDuringOperatingHours
1TheStreetcarDRMtreatsallemploymentandhouseholdswithinamilewalkequallyanddoesnotestimatea
captureratewithinthewalkthatdecreasesbydistancefromthestop.
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
3/17
Fehr&Peers Page|3 October4,2011
VariableClass VariableList
NumberofStopsonStreetcarLine RegularFare TransferAccepted PassesAccepted
Population&Employment(withinmileofcorridor)
RetailEmployment Non-RetailEmployment JobMix(Retail/Non-RetailRatio) EmploymentDensity Households HouseholdDensity Jobs/HousingRatio
TABLE3StationLevelDataCollection
Variable Description Source
Boardings Averagedailyboardings. TransitAgency
Alightings Averageweekdayalightings. TransitAgency
StartofLine Binaryvariableindicatingstationisthefirststopon
theline(0/1).
Fehr&Peers
Intersections Numberofintersectionswithinaquartermileofthe
station.Limitedaccesshighwaysandrampsnot
included.
Fehr&Peers(Calculated
inGIS)
StopstoTerminus Numberofstationsuntiltheterminusoftheline.(A
measureofhowmanydestinationsareaccessible)
Fehr&Peers(Calculated
inGIS)
Buses Numberofintersectingbuseswithinoneblockofthe
station.
TransitAgency
NumberofFeeder
Trains
Numberofdailytrainsonintersectingraillines
withinoneblockofthestation.
TransitAgency
RailAccess Binaryvariableindicatingthestationhasatransferto
arailline(0/1).
Fehr&Peers
Free/Paid Binaryvariableindicatingwhetherthestationisfare
freeorpaid(0/1).
TransitAgency
DistancetoNearest
Station
Distancetoclosestdirectionalstation.(Closer
spacedstationshaveasmallercatchmentareathan
furtherspacedstations)
Fehr&Peers(Calculated
inGIS)
RetailEmployment Numberofretailemployeeswithinmileradiusof
station.
U.SCensusBureau
LongitudinalEmployer
HouseholdDynamics
Non-Retail
Employment
Numberofallother(non-retail)employeeswithin
mileradiusofstation.
U.SCensusBureau
LongitudinalEmployer
HouseholdDynamics
RetailMix Ratioofretailemployeestonon-retailemployees
(RetailEmployment/Non-RetailEmployment).
U.SCensusBureau
LongitudinalEmployer
HouseholdDynamics
TotalEmployment Totalnumberofemployeeswithinmileradiusof
station.
U.SCensusBureau
LongitudinalEmployer
HouseholdDynamics
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
4/17
Fehr&Peers Page|4 October4,2011
Variable Description Source
Households Numberofhouseholdswithinmileradiusof
station.
2010Census
JobsHousingBalance Numberofjobsperhouseholdwithinmileradius
ofstation(TotalEmployment/Households).
2010CensusandU.S
CensusBureau
LongitudinalEmployer
HouseholdDynamicsUrbanDensity SumofRetailEmploymentandHouseholdswithin
mileradiusofstation.
Fehr&Peers
Hotel Binaryvariableindicatingthatahotelislocatednear
thestation(0/1)
Fehr&Peers
Center Binaryvariableindicatingthataspecialeventscenter
islocatednearthestation
Fehr&Peers
CenterSize Avariablethatcapturesthemagnitudeofthespecial
eventscenter,basedonsquarefootage
Fehr&Peers
1.2DirectRidershipForecasting
ThestationleveldatacollectedfromPortland,SeattleandTacomawereusedtoperformordinaryleast
squares (OLS) regression analysis to predict daily boardings per station. This analysis is based onempirical relationships found through statistical analysis of station ridership and local station
characteristics.Multiple iterationsof all collected data were tested in theregressionmodel, but the
variablesthatenteredintothedirectridershipforecasting(DRF)modelassignificantwerethefollowing:
UrbanDensityameasureofretailintensityandresidentialdensityofthestationarea NumberofFeederTrainsameasureofthemagnitudeofregionaltransitconnections StartofLinethisvariableonlyappliestobi-directionallineswheremorepassengerstendto
boardatthefirststation,butdoesnotapplytoloopsystems
CenterSizeameasureofthemagnitudeofaspecialeventscenterservedbythestation Free/Paidabinaryvariableindicatingwhetherthestationisfreeorpaid(butnotproviding
informationabouttheleveloffare)
TheR2valueofthemodelis0.56whichrepresentsafairlyhighgoodnessoffit.Oneofthelimitstothe
model is the limited number ofbuilt streetcar systems in the USand thus limiteddata availability.
Although intuitivelymore variables thanthose included in themodel influence ridership,dueto the
limiteddataavailabilitywewereunabletodistinguishstatisticallysignificantrelationshipsbetweenall
variables.Thatbeingsaid,wewereabletofindsignificantrelationshipsbetweenboardingsandseveral
stationlevelvariablesinordertocreateastatisticallysignificantmodelwithagoodfit.
Another factor that could affect goodness of fit is the close spacing of stops along streetcar lines.
StreetcarlinessuchastheonesstudiedinPortland,SeattleandTacomatendtohavecloserstopspacingthanregionaltransitsystemssuchasbusesandlightrail.Duetotheclosestopspacing,thecatchment
areaofsomestopsmayoverlap.Thiscouldresultinvariationamongthepredictedvaluesatthestation
level,butshouldnothaveastrongimpactonthepredictedvaluesatthecorridorlevel.
DataforeachofthesefivevariableswerecollectedforeachpotentialstopalongtheLAStreetcarline.
These variables were used to predict daily boardings at each station and were summed for each
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
5/17
Fehr&Peers Page|5 October4,2011
configuration to estimate daily boardings along the line. The expected system boardings are
summarizedinSection3.0.
1.2.1UrbanDensity
Urbandensityisasumofretailemploymentandhouseholdswithinmileofthestation.Moststations
alongtheproposedLAStreetcarcorridorhaveeitherhighhouseholddensityorhighretailemployment
density,butfewhaveboth.Theareaswiththehighesthouseholddensityinclude6thandBroadway,and6
thandHill.Theareaswiththehighestretailemploymentdensityarearound9
thandBroadway,11
thand
Figueroa, and 6th and Hill. Special attention was paid to areas along the corridor where retail
employmenthasbeenchangingoverthepastfiveyears.TheDowntownCenterBusinessImprovement
Districtwasconsultedtoinsurethataccurateretailemploymentcountswereusedasinputsintothe
model.Theseareasincluded:
7th+Figthatwillbereopenedin2012asFigat7 thwithTargetastheanchorstore MacysPlaza DowntownLosAngelesRalphs
1.2.2NumberofFeederTrains
Numberoffeedertrainsisthedailynumberoftrainsonintersectingraillineswithatransfertothestreetcarstop.Severalraillineswouldhavetransfers totheproposedLAStreetcarline.These include
theMetroBlueLine(withstopsatPicoand7th/MetroCenter),Red/PurpleLine(withstopsat7
th/Metro
Center,PerishingSquareandCivicCenter),GoldLine(whichstopsatUnionStation),MetroLink(which
stopsatUnionStation)andtheExpoLine(openingin2012withstopsatPicoand7th/MetroCenter).
Sinceatsomelocations severalLA Streetcarstops arelocated near oneMetro station,the expected
numberofriderstransferringfromaMetrolinetotheLAStreetcarweredistributedamongtheclosest
streetcarstations.
1.2.3StartofLine
AnalysisofthePortland,SeattleandTacomastreetcarsystemsfoundthatahighnumberofpassengers
wereboardingatthestartofthelinestation.ThisdoesnotapplytotheLAStreetcarsinceitwilloperateinaloopandthereforehasnoendofthelinestation.However,inthecasethatabi-directionallineis
proposed,thisvariablewillbeapplied.
1.2.4CenterSize
Thisvariabletakes intoaccountspecialeventscenterswhichareservedbythestreetcarlineandalso
considersthesizeofthecenteranditsimpactonridership.Thespecialeventscentersconsideredalong
theLAStreetcarcorridorincludethe following: LAConventionCenter,StaplesCenter,LA Live,MOCA,
DisneyTheater,CityHall,OlveraStreet,andLittleTokyo.Broadwaybetweenapproximately3rdand7
th
Streetswas givenconsiderationasa special generator due to its regionaldraw.However, since the
primarydrawisshopping,theUrbanDensityvariableeffectivelycapturestheridershipresultingfroma
shoppingricharea.Inthemodel,theCenterSizevariableisreservedforuniquetripgeneratorsthat
cannotbeexplainedbyemploymentor residentialpopulationalone.SimilartotheNumberofFeederTrainsvariable,sincesomecenterscanbeservedbymultiplestreetcarstops,theexpectednumberof
streetcarridersgeneratedbyeachcenterwasdistributedamongthecloseststreetcarstops.
1.2.5Free/Paid
Alongthestreetcar systemsstudied,whether ornota stationwas freeor paidwas foundtohavea
significantimpactonridership.FortheLAStreetcaralternativesdiscussedinSections2and3,allLA
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
6/17
Fehr&Peers Page|6 October4,2011
Streetcarstopsareassumedtobepaid.However,forthesensitivityanalysisinSection4,allLAStreetcar
stopsareassumedtobefree.
1.3ForecastYear
The forecast year for the ridership estimates is 2015 (expected opening year). We did not assume
additional development (housing, retail) beyond the 2010 data due to the models use ofparcel by
parcelchangeswithinamilewalkshedwhengrowthforecastsarefarmoreaggregateinnature.The
MetroExpo Line(Phase I)is expected toopen in2012 and Feeder Trains atthePico and 7th/Metro
Center Stations were adjusted to reflect this upcoming service. All other regionally significant rail
projectsareexpectedafter2015andwerenotincludedinthemodel.
1.4PostModelProcessingConsiderations
Several post-model adjustments were considered to account for variables not included in the DRF
model.Thesearedescribedbelow.
1.4.1FrequencyofService
Wedidnothaveenoughdatatomakea statistically significant relationshipbetweenfrequency and
boardings,butwe haveidentifiedthis variableas an important factordistinguishingtheLA Streetcarfromtheotherstreetcarsystemsstudied.Amongthestationsstudied,theaveragepeakhourfrequency
is3.6trainsperhour.However,theLAStreetcarisplannedtohave8.6trainsperhourduringpeak
hours(onetrain every7 minutes). Althoughno research exists thatprovidesanelasticityvalue for
frequencyofservicespecifically forstreetcarsystems,according toTCRPSynthesis 66,NewYorkCity
reported anelasticity value of 0.2 for transitservicefrequency.Consideringthe increased frequency
betweenthesystemsstudiedandtheLAStreetcarsystem,applyingthiselasticityvaluewouldresultin
anexpected ridership increase of28%.This increase can be applied asa post-modelprocessto the
resultsoftheDRFmodeltoaccountforincreasedridershipduetothemorefrequentserviceoftheLA
Streetcarthansystemsstudied.
1.4.2SpanofService
Anothervariableconsideredforpostmodelprocessingwas spanofservicesincetheLA Streetcarwill
operated later than thethreestreetcarsystemsstudied.TheLA Streetcaris plannedtooperatefrom
6:00to12:00AMMondaythroughThursday.Thisisaspanof18hours.Theaverageweekdaytimespan
ofthestationsstudiedis17.3hours.ThistimespaniscomparabletotheLAStreetcar.Furthermore,
sincethepeakboardinghoursofstreetcarsystemsareduringtheday,extendingservicehoursintothe
night is not expected to have a significant impact on ridership. Late night boardings along the LA
Streetcar line are likely to take place at special events centers and these boardings are already
accountedforinthemodelthroughtheCentersvariable.Therefore,nopost-modelprocessingforspan
ofservicewasperformed.
1.4.3InteractionswithLADOTDASHService
Oneconsiderationwaswhethersomelevelofridershipaccountedforinthemodelwouldactuallytakeplace on the LADOT DASH,Metro Bus, orMetro Rail services and therefore require a post-model
adjustment.However, theLA Streetcarroute structure (clockwise loop anddestinations served), and
typeofservice(streetcarversusshuttleorHRT)suggeststhattheLAStreetcarwouldbecomplementary
toexistingandplanneddowntowntransitservice.WhiletheproposedLAStreetcaralignmentsduplicate
orparallelportionsofLADOTDASHRoutesB,D,andF,noneoftheseroutescouldbefullyreplacedby
theLAStreetcar.Further,opportunitydoesexist toreconfigureLADOTDASH toeliminateduplication
withLAStreetcarbymodifyingroutestructure.Therefore,postmodeladjustmentsdonotincludedirect
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
7/17
Fehr&Peers Page|7 October4,2011
transfer of LADOTDASH ridership to the LA Streetcar since they are expected to complement one
another. Transit mode choice (LA Streetcar versus shuttle, Metro Bus, orMetro Rail) is effectively
capturedintheindependentvariablesusedintheDRFmodel.
1.4.4ConsiderationofCommuter(Express)Buses
ConsiderationwasgiventowhethertheLA Streetcarcouldprovidea first/lastmileconnectiontothe
commuterbusesthatprovideaccesstodowntownemploymentfromsuburbanlocations(suchasMetro
SilverLine,BigBlueBusRapid10,orLADOTCommuterExpress).SincetheDRFmodeldoesnotincludea
variabletoaccountforthistypeofservice,apostmodeladjustmentwasexplored.Stoplocationsforthe
commuter services were identified anddetermined to provideenough coverage (based on distance
betweenstops)withindowntownthattransferstoothertransitlineswouldnotbeneededtocomplete
firstmile/lastmiletripswithindowntownLosAngeles.Thisfindingallowsustoconcludethatnopost
modeladjustmentwasdeemednecessary.
1.4.5ConsiderationofaDowntownNFLStadium
AnNFLstadiumiscurrentlyplannedfordowntownLosAngelesandwouldbelocatedonthecurrentsite
oftheWestHalloftheLosAngelesConventionCenter.Itwouldseat68,000forfootballandcouldbe
completed by 2015. How the stadium and its related activity could affect streetcar ridership wasconsidered as a post model adjustment. However, we believe that the Centers variable effectively
captures the ridership attributed to the Staples Center/LA Live/Convention Center destination for a
typicalday.ThemodelassumeseventsatStaplesCenterandLALiveandConventionCenter.Itwouldbe
aspecialcircumstancetohaveeventsatallfourcentersonthesamedayandwouldrepresentatypical
ridership; therefore no furtheradjustmentwasnecessary forpredicting typicalstreetcar ridership.A
discussionofhowridershipcouldbeaffectedduringspecialeventdaysisincludedinSection6.0.
1.4.6ConsiderationofAngelsFlight
AnglesFlightisfunicularrailwayconnectingHillStreetandCaliforniaPlazainBunkerHill.Eachridecosts
$0.25 and the railway averages about 2,100 weekday boardings per day.While this service is well
utilizedby officeworkers traveling fromBunker Hill totheBroadwayareaof downtown, itis also a
tourist attraction and the proposedmidblock stop on Hill Street between 3rd Street and 4th Street(Alternatives3,4,5,6&7only)wouldprovideadirectconnectiontothefunicular.Nearbystopsat3
rd
Street&Grand Avenue (Alternatives1&2only), 3rdStreet&Broadway,and4
th Street&Broadway
wouldalsoprovideaccess.Itisestimatedthatapproximately30%ofaverageweekdaydailyboardings
areattributabletotourists.ConsideringalikelysynergybetweentheuseofAngelsFlightandstreetcar
amongtourists,a postmodeladjustmentequalto1/3rdof projecteddailytouristboardingsonAngels
Flight(walkandothermodesofaccesswouldaccountforthemajorityoftripstoandfromthefunicular)
wasdistributedproportionallyamongthefourproximatestops.
2.0 Alternatives
Fehr&PeersusedthealternativesandstopspreparedbyHDRtoestimatethetotaldailyboardingsat
eachstop,summedtoreflecttheboardingsforeachline.Theridershipforecastsinthissectionare
basedonthefollowingkeyoperatingcharacteristics.
HoursofOperation:6:00amto12:00midnight Headways:7minutepeakand10-15minuteoff-peakservice Fare:$1.50(Section4providesanassessmentofreducedfareandfare-freeservice)
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
8/17
Fehr&Peers Page|8 October4,2011
Thesevenconceptalternativesincludethefollowingalignmentconfigurations:
Alternative1:A4-B3-C2 Alternative2:A4-B3-C3 Alternative3:A6-B1-C2 Alternative4:A6-B1-C3 Alternative5:A7-B1-C2 Alternative6:A7-B1-C3 Alternative7:A6-B1-C4
3.0 ResultsandDiscussion
The results of the DRF for expected daily ridership and performance (boardings per mile) of each
alternativearesummarizedinTable4:
TABLE4.DailyRidershipbyAlternativefromDRFModel
AlignmentConfiguration #ofStops
Length(Miles) SystemBoardings AverageperMile
Alternative1 25 3.83 5,430 1,420
Alternative2 21 3.32 4,380 1,320
Alternative3 30 4.29 5,910 1,380
Alternative4 26 3.78 4,870 1,290
Alternative5 34 5.16 6,720 1,300
Alternative6 30 4.65 5,680 1,220
Alternative7 25 3.79 5,000 1,320
Afterpost-modelprocessingwasappliedtoaccountforthehighfrequencyoftheLAStreetcarlineand
link to Angels Flight, the following expected daily ridership values were determined, summarized in
Table5:
TABLE5.DailyRidershipbyAlternativefromDRFModelwithPost-ModelProcessing
AlignmentConfiguration #ofStops
Length(Miles)
SystemBoardings AverageperMile
Alternative1 25 3.83 7,160 1,870
Alternative2 21 3.32 5,820 1,750
Alternative3 30 4.29 7,780 1,810Alternative4 26 3.78 6,440 1,700
Alternative5 34 5.16 8,810 1,710
Alternative6 30 4.65 7,480 1,610
Alternative7 25 3.79 6,610 1,740
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
9/17
Fehr&Peers Page|9 October4,2011
Alternatives1&2areprojectedtogeneratethehighestboardingspermileofthesevenalternatives.
Thisisduetobetteraccesstomajortripgeneratorssuchasmajorhotels,MOCA,andthe7th/Metro
CenterStation.Shownbelowareprojecteddailyboardingsbystop.Thesealternativesareprojectedto
generate fewersystemboardingsthanAlternatives3,4&7whichismainlyaccountedforbythefact
that Alternatives 1&2havefewer stops.Thestopswith thehighest projected ridership arelocated
aroundtheStaplesCenter/LALive/ConventionCenter.
0100
200300400500600700800900
1000
2nd&Grand(6)
1st&Broadway(8)
2nd&Broadway(9)
3rd&Broadway(11)
4th&Broadway(13)
5th&Broadway(15)
6th&Broadway(16)
7th&Broadway(21)
8th&Broadway(26)
9th&Broadway(27)
Olympic&Broadway(37)
11th&Broadway(36)
Pico&Broadway(38)
Pico&Olive(45)
Pico&Hope(46)
Hope&12th(47)
Hope&11th(48)
11th&Figueroa(33)
Olympic&Figueroa(32)
Flower&9th(31)
Grand&9th(30)
8th&Grand(42)
7th&Grand(43)
6th&Grand(44)
3rd&Grand(20)
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave1
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
10/17
Fehr&Peers Page|10 October4,2011
Alternatives3,4&7generatemoreridershipthanAlternatives1&2withfeweraveragedailyboardings
per mile. They contain five more stops (4 stops for Alternative 7) than their respective C2/C3
counterpartfromAlternatives1&2.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave2
01002003004005006007008009001000
2nd&Grand(6)
1st&Broa
dway(8)
2nd&Broa
dway(9)
3rd&Broad
way(11)
4th&Broad
way(13)
5th&Broad
way(15)
6th&Broad
way(16)
7th&Broad
way(21)
8th&Broad
way(26)
9th&Broad
way(27)
Olympic&Broad
way(37)
11th&Broad
way(36)
Pico&Broad
way(38)
Pico&O
live(45)
Pico&H
ope(46)
Hope&12th(47)
Hope&11th(48)
11th&Figueroa(33)
Olympic&Figueroa(32)
Flower&
9th(31)
Grand&
9th(30)
9th&O
live(29)
9th&
Hill(28)
8th&
Hill(25)
7th&
Hill(22)
6th&
Hill(17)
5th&
Hill(14)
4th&
Hill(12)
2nd&
Hill(10)
1st
&Hill(7)
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave3
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
11/17
Fehr&Peers Page|11 October4,2011
Alternatives5&6generatethehighestsystemridershipofthesevenalternatives.Whiletheygenerate
loweraveragedailyboardingspermilethantheotheralternatives,theyhavethehighestnumberof
stationsamongthesevenalternatives. Alternatives5& 6add stopsatCityHall,OlveraStreet/Union
StationandLittleTokyo(+2more)andincludemoretripattractors(OlveraStreet/LittleTokyo)andan
additionalrailconnection.
0100200300400500600700
800900
1000
2nd&Grand(6)
1st&Broadway(8)
2nd
&Broadway(9)
3rd
&Broadway(11)
4th
&Broadway(13)
5th
&Broadway(15)
6th
&Broadway(16)
7th
&Broadway(21)
8th
&Broadway(26)
9th
&Broadway(27)
Olympic
&Broadway(37)
Broad
way&11th
(35)
11th&Grand(34)
11th
&Figueroa(33)
Olympic&Figueroa(32)
F
lower&9th(31)
Grand&9th(30)
9th&Olive(29)
9th&Hill(28)
8th&Hill(25)
7th&Hill(22)
6th&Hill(17)
5th&Hill(14)
4th&Hill(12)
2nd&Hill(10)
1st&Hill(7)
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave4
0
100
200
300
400500
600
700
800900
1000
2nd&Grand(6)
1st&Broadway(8)
2nd&Broadway(9)
3rd&Broadway(11)
4th&Broadway(13)
5th&Broadway(15)
6th&Broadway(16)
7th&Broadway(21)
8th&Broadway(26)
9th&Broadway(27)
Olym
pic&Broadway(37)
Br
oadway&11th
(35)
11th&Grand(34)
11th&Figueroa(33)
Olympic&Figueroa(32)
Figueroa&9th(49)
Figueroa&8th(50)
Figueroa&7th(51)
Hope&7th(52)
7th&Hill(22)
6th&Hill(17)
5th&Hill(14)
4th&Hill(12)
2nd&Hill(10)
1st&Hill(7)
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave7
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
12/17
Fehr&Peers Page|12 October4,2011
Amajorfactorinthedifferenceinridershipcanbeexplainedbythenumberofstops.Thehigherthe
number of stops (assuming the stop is located near factors that influence ridership) the higher the
ridership. Forexample, theprimaryreasonwhy theC2 alignmentshave higherboardings than C3 is
numberofstations:C2stopsfivetimesbeforereachingFigueroa/11thandC3justonce.C2alsoprovides
superioraccesstotheBlueLineandConventionCenter.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600700
800
900
1000
Olvera&
LosAngeles(1)
Temple&
LosAngeles(2)
1st&
LosAngeles(5)
1st
&Broadway(8)
2nd
&Broadway(9)
3rd&
Broadway(11)
4th&
Broadway(13)
5th&
Broadway(15)
6th&
Broadway(16)
7th&
Broadway(21)
8th&
Broadway(26)
9th&
Broadway(27)
Olympic&
Broadway(37)
11th&
Broadway(36)
Pico&
Broadway(38)
P
ico&Olive(45)
P
ico&Hope(46)
H
ope&12th(47)
H
ope&11th(48)
11th
&Figueroa(33)
Olympic
&Figueroa(32)
Flower&9th(31)
G
rand&9th(30)
9th&Olive(29)
9th&Hill(28)
8th&Hill(25)
7th&Hill(22)
6th&Hill(17)
5th&Hill(14)
4th&Hill(12)
2nd&Hill(10)
1st&Hill(7)
LA
Mall&Main(4)
City
Hall&Main(3)
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave5
0100200300400500
600700800900
1000
Olv
era&LosAngeles(1)
Tem
ple&LosAngeles(2)
1st&LosAngeles(5)
1st&Broadway(8)
2nd&Broadway(9)
3rd&Broadway(11)
4th&Broadway(13)
5th&Broadway(15)
6th&Broadway(16)
7th&Broadway(21)
8th&Broadway(26)
9th&Broadway(27)
Olym
pic&Broadway(37)
B
roadway&11th
(35)
11th&Grand(34)
11th&Figueroa(33)
Oly
mpic&Figueroa(32)
Flower&9th(31)
Grand&9th(30)
9th&Olive(29)
9th&Hill(28)
8th&Hill(25)
7th&Hill(22)
6th&Hill(17)
5th&Hill(14)
4th&Hill(12)
2nd&Hill(10)
1st&Hill(7)
LAMall&Main(4)
CityHall&Main(3)
DailyBoardingsperStaonforAlternave6
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
13/17
Fehr&Peers Page|13 October4,2011
Twofactorsinfluencingridershipareretailjobsandhouseholdswithinmilewalkofastop.Whilethe
11th/Grandstopwouldprovidebetteraccesstothenewcondotowersadjacenttotheintersectionthe
11th/Figueroaand11
th/Picoarewithinamileof11
th/Grandandcapturemostofthepopulation.
4.0 PerformanceComparison
The projected opening day performance of the LA Streetcar (in terms of boardings per mile) was
comparedtoexistingandplannedstreetcarsystems,LRT/BRTinLosAngeles,existingDASHservice,and
existingbusservicealongBroadwaywithinthecorridor(southboundonly)wheretheLAStreetcarwould
operate.
First,acomparison(Table6)wasmadetoactualopeningmonthridershipofthePortland,Tacoma,and
SeattlestreetcarlinesandprojectedopeningmonthridershipoftheplannedCharlotte,SaltLakeCity,
Tucson,andAtlantaStreetcar lines.TheLA Streetcaroutperformsbothactualandprojectedopening
monthridershipofthesesystems.
TABLE6.ComparisontoOpeningMonth/ProjectedRidershipofExisting/PlannedStreetcarSystems
*OpeningMonthActual
**ProjectedOpeningDay
AlignmentConfiguration Length(Miles)
SystemBoardings AverageperMile
Alternative3 4.29 7,780 1,810
Alternative4 3.78 6,440 1,700
Alternative7 3.79 6,610 1,740
Portland(StarterLine) 4.8 4,982 1,040*
Tacoma 2.7 2,170 800*
Seattle 2.6 1,316 510*
Charlotte(Planned) 2.8 1,500 540**
SaltLakeCity(Planned) 4 3,000 750**Tucson(Planned) 3.9 3,600 920**
Atlanta(Planned) 2.6 2,600 1,000**
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
14/17
Fehr&Peers Page|14 October4,2011
Second,acomparison(Table7)wasmadetoactualopeningmonthridershipofthefourexistingLRTand
oneBRTlinesinLosAngeles.TheLAStreetcaroutperformsactualopeningmonthridershipinboardings
permileoftheselines.
TABLE7.ComparisontoOpeningMonthRidershipofMetroLRT/BRT
Source:Metro
Third,acomparison(Table8)wasmadetoexisting(2011todate)ridershipofthefivebestperforming
downtownDASHroutes.TheLAStreetcaroutperformsexistingridershipoftheseroutes.
TABLE8.ComparisontoExistingDASHRidership
Source:LADOT
AlignmentConfiguration Length(Miles)
SystemBoardings AverageperMile
Alternative3 4.29 7,780 1,810
Alternative4 3.78 6,440 1,700
Alternative7 3.79 6,610 1,740
OrangeLine 28 16,360 580
GoldLine 27.4 18,364 670
GoldLineEastsideExtension 12 7,156 600
GreenLine 40 15,800 400
BlueLine 44 30,800 700
AlignmentConfiguration Length(Miles)
SystemBoardings AverageperMile
Alternative3 4.29 7,780 1,810
Alternative4 3.78 6,440 1,700
Alternative7 3.79 6,610 1,740
DASHA 6.1 3,886 640DASHB 6.7 3,525 530
DASHD 7.5 4,081 540
DASHE 6.3 7,352 1,170
DASHF 7.2 3,306 460
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
15/17
Fehr&Peers Page|15 October4,2011
Fourth,a comparison (Table9)wasmadeto existing (July2011)ridershipof thesix best performing
Metro bus routes on Broadway between Cesar Chavez Ave and Pico Boulevard. The LA Streetcar
outperformsexistingridershipoffourofsixoftheseroutes.Thehighperformanceofthetworoutes
thatoutperformtheLAStreetcarislikelyduetotheconcentrationofboardingsalongtheBroadway
corridorandcorrespondingdispersedalightingsalongtheconsiderablelengthofeachbusroute.
TABLE9.ComparisontoSouthboundBroadwayBusRidership(CesarChavezAvetoPicoBoulevardOnly)
Source:Metro
5.0 FareElasticity
A sensitivity test of a free versus reduced fare versus paid scenarios was completed to better
understandtheresults,differencesinalternatives,andhowtheycomparetoothersystemtypes.
BoththeTacomastreetcarsystemandsignificantportionsofthePortlandstreetcarsystemarefarefree.
ThevariableFree/Paid was found tohave a statistically significant influence on ridership in theDRF
model.TotesttheimpactofapplyingafarefreesystemtotheLAStreetcar,acomparisonofridershipestimatesof free versuspaid systemswasconductedusing theFree/Paidvariablein themodel.The
resultscan beseen inTable10. Operating theLA Streetcaras a completely fare-free systemwould
increaseexpectedridership49to57%overasystemwhereafareischarged.
WhiletheDRFmodelcandistinguishbetweenfreeandfullfaresystems,itdoesnotmeasurechangesin
the level offare. Rather thanchargingthefullMetro fareof$1.50per ride, one considerationis to
chargeareducedfareof$0.50perride.Awidelyacceptedvalueforfaretoridershipelasticityis-0.42
(although this value isnotstreetcar-specific). According to this elasticityvalue, a fare decrease from
$1.50 to$0.50perride would result ina 27% increasein ridership.Theridership estimates under a
$0.50farescenarioarealsosummarizedinTable10.
2http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_95c12.pdf
AlignmentConfiguration Length(Miles)
SystemBoardings AverageperMile
Alternative3 1.45 2,480 1,710
Alternative4 1.24 2,360 1,900
Alternative7 1.24 2,360 1,900
MetroLine30 1.37 2,008 1,470
MetroLine40 1.37 2,985 2,180
MetroLine45 1.81 4,020 2,220
MetroLine730 1.45 792 550
MetroLine740 1.45 1,204 830
MetroLine745 1.45 1,780 1,230
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
16/17
Fehr&Peers Page|16 October4,2011
TABLE10.FareLevelSensitivityTesting
Paid
($1.50perRide)
ReducedFare
($0.50perRide)
Free
AlignmentConfigurationLength
(Miles)
System
Boardings
Avgper
Mile
System
Boardings
Avgper
Mile
System
Boardings
Avgper
Mile
Alternative1 3.83 7,160 1,870 9,090 2,370 10,670 2,790
Alternative2 3.32 5,820 1,750 7,390 2,230 8,770 2,640
Alternative3 4.29 7,780 1,810 9,880 2,300 12,000 2,800
Alternative4 3.78 6,440 1,700 8,180 2,160 10,100 2,670
Alternative5 5.16 8,810 1,710 11,190 2,170 13,600 2,630
Alternative6 4.65 7,480 1,610 9,500 2,040 11,700 2,520
Alternative7 3.79 6,610 1,740 8,390 2,210 10,120 2,670
6.0 OtherFactorswithPotentialtoPositivelyInfluenceRidershipofLAStreetcar
6.1ConsiderationofOfficeEmploymentDensity
Anotherconsideration in theridership forecastingprocess is that officeemploymentdensityismuchhigher in downtown Los Angeles than in the cities included in the model. For example, the office
employmentdensityalongthePortlandstreetcarlineis14,000officejobspersquaremilewhileforthe
area along theproposed LAstreetcar is40,000 office jobsper squaremile.3 Fortheexistingmodern
streetcar lines in the U.S., office employment is not a significant predictor of ridership. Retail
employment,specialgenerators,connectionstohighcapacity transitlines,andfarestructurearekey
drivers of streetcar ridership. The existing modern streetcar lines in the U.S. primarily serve retail,
tourist,andhome-basedothertrips,whilehome-basedworktrips(eithernon-linkedorlinked)donot
haveastrongimpactonridership.Ifcommutetripsbyofficeworkersprovetobeamoresignificant
market for theLAStreetcar, thehigherdensityof downtownLosAngelesemployment comparedto
othersystemscouldresultinanincreaseinridershipabovecurrentprojections.
6.2ConsiderationofSpecialEvents
The model results show the ridership estimates for a typical day. However, special events could
generateperiodicpeaksinridership.Forexample,iftheNFLstadiumproposedtobebuiltnexttoLA
Liveweretobefilledtocapacity,thiswouldmean68,000peopletravelingtoandfromtheareawithina
rather narrow window of time. The Mobility Group estimated that 15 percent of fans will attend
weekendgamesbytransit.4SincestationsfortheMetroBlue,RedandPurplelinesarelocatednearby,it
isexpectedthatthemajorityoftransitriderswouldusetheselinesforahome-basedtrip.Weestimate
that12percentoffanswoulddesiretousethestreetcartotravelfromthestadiumonagameday.
Thiswouldrepresent680 1,360 additionalboardingsona gameday,which isan increasein daily
ridershipof1020percent.Thesefansleavingthestadiumafteragamewouldprimarilybeboardingat
the11thStreet&FigueroaStreetstoportheOlympicBoulevard&FigueroaStreetstop,whichalready
havesomeofthehighestlevelsofexpectedridershipofanystop.Ifeachstreetcarhasacapacityof100
3 Source:LEHD,http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/.Officejobs aredefined as jobsin thefollowingNAICS industry
sectors: information; finance and insurance; real estate and rental and leasing; professional, scientific, and
technicalservices;managementofcompaniesandenterprises;publicadministration.
4http://www.dailybreeze.com/latestnews/ci_18980892
8/3/2019 2011 Fehr Peers Downtown Streetcar Ridership Study
17/17
Fehr&Peers Page|17 October4,2011
riders, it would take 7-14 vehicles to accommodate all of the streetcar riders. Typical peak hour
frequencywillbeonestreetcarevery7minutes.Iftwosparevehiclesareaddedtoservespecialevents,
as is indicated in the Alternatives Analysis, the frequency can be increased to one vehicle every 5
minutesand40seconds.Thiswouldmeanitwouldtake4080minutestoserveallofthefanswanting
toboardthestreetcarafteragame.Itisunlikelythatfanswillbewillingtowaitmorethan30minutes
forastreetcar,sotheactualincreaseinridershiponagamedaywouldlikelybeonthelowerendofthe
estimatedrangegiventhecapacitylimitsofthestreetcarline.Otherrecurringspecialeventsincludethe
DowntownArtWalkandstreetfairs.