Evidence Based Decisions for UK Landscapes Programme Modelling for Coastal and Inland waters Icarus Allen Sea ^
Evidence Based Decisions for UK Landscapes Programme
Modelling for Coastal and Inland waters
Icarus Allen
Sea
^
The Socio –Ecological System
Coral reefs
Other interesting issues: Population Security Land tenure
Well-being impacts
Climate Change
Socio-ecological system
Urban areas
Forestry Agriculture Mining Coastal development Tourism
Coastal Community Activities Fishers (men and women) Traders Tourist activities (guides etc.) Farming SMEs Crafts Consumers
Resilience strategies Ecological Social
Business
© Reef Conservation
Ecosystem services
The landscape: questions
climate
carbon sequestration
deoxygenation
acidification
bioremediation
eutrophication
coastal erosion prevention
food provision
fisheries
aquaculture
Plankton Functional Types
(variable) stoichiometry
C, N, P, Si, Fe
structured populations
size vs. abundance
mammals & birds
leisure, recreation
bathing water quality
jellyfish, harmful algae
charismatic species
model ingredients
macrophytes, seagrasses
fish & fisheries
benthic fauna
carbonate chemistry
oxygen, redox chemistry
IBMs
ecolo
gy
bio
geochem
istry
questions
pelagic & benthic life stages
Model Processes
The landscape: regions of interest
world ocean
lagoons
estuaries
shelf seas
ocean basins
coastal ocean models
GETM, NEMO-shelf…
global circulation models
NEMO, MOM, …
unstructured grid models
FVCOM, SCHISM, …
scale
re
solu
tion
model of choice domain
Model Scales
River Catchment Models
e.g HYDRO JULES, …
rivers
Particle Tracking
Marine Physics
Aquaculture
Fisheries Biogeochemical / Ecosystem
Local
Regional
Global
More details at: http://www.pml.ac.uk/Modelling/Home
Coupler
Marine System Modelling:
Consider the complexities of the marine system to optimise management: • Marine Ecology • Chemistry • Physics
• Atmospheric
drivers • Terrestrial
interactions • Anthropogenic
pressures
observations
Data Assimilation
Physical modelling tools
The Finite Volume Community Ocean
Model (FVCOM)
Horizontal unstructured model grid
allows for a close fit to complex
coastlines and variable resolution.
Simulations with SST assimilation
and high res Atmospheric fields
Provides velocity & diffusivity fields
at hourly or half-hourly intervals.
PyLag
A particle tracking model written in
Python/Cython.
2- or 3-D advection.
A selection of random displacement
models.
Impacts of offshore wind farms: Far field effects
• Use unstructured grid model (FVCOM) to focus on the eastern
Irish Sea
• Explicitly include turbines in large model domain
• Assess impacts at local and shelf scale
• Entrainment of deep waters into
upper layer and vice versa
• Extends 5m below stratified region
and to surface from below
• Upward vertical flow on
downstream side of the monopile
• Mostly decrease in stratification of
5-15% over approximately 250km2
Cazenave et al. 2016 Prog in Phys Ocean
Hetero- trophs
Micro-
Phytoplankton
Consumers
Diatoms
NO3
PO4
NH4
Si
Micro
Aerobic Bacteria
Pelagic
Benthic
pCO2
Carbonate System
Anaerobic Bacteria
Meso-
CO2
TA
Inorganics
Nano
Bacteria
NO3
PO4
NH4
Si Meio-
benthos Deposit Feeders
Organics
Zoobenthos
Microbes
Microbes
Pico
Nutrients O2
Fe
TA
Atmosphere
Suspension Feeders
pH Ω
pH Ω
O2
O2
DIC
DIC
0
Refrac -tory Degradable
DOM
O2
Refrac -tory
DOM
POM
Large Small
DOM
POM
Semi- Labile
Labile
Med
Buried
H2CO3
HCO3-
CO32-
H2CO3
HCO3-
CO32-
Coastal Ecosystem Modelling
Putting it back together: the pelagic ecosystem
passive particle primary producer
predator with variable stoichiometry
predator with fixed stoichiometry
calcium carbonate
oxygen
carbonate system bacteria
Butenschön, and 17 others. (2015) ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the
lower trophic levels, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 7063-7187, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-7063-2015.
Predicting change • Climate response • Ocean acidification • Deoxygenation • Greenhouse gases
Energy • Carbon Capture & Storage • Marine renewables
Environmental health • Eutrophication • Microplastics • Harmful Algae Blooms • Good environmental status
Food • Aquaculture capacity • Fisheries • Trawling impacts
Particle tracking: Microplastics, pathogens etc.
Vulnerability to Deoxygenation
Productivity under climate scenarios
Example Capabilities
More details at: http://www.pml.ac.uk/Modelling/Home
• 2013: UK government designated 28 MCZs.
Marine Conservation Zones .
Ap
ply
Results
Indicators sets can be tailored to case study conditions
For many indicators suitable data are lacking
Climate change will affect indicator ability to detect other sources of change
Cultural ES indicator selection challenging
Indicators of ecosystem functions, services and benefits needed
Reflect quantity and quality of ES
What are potential data sources?
How to measure indicator?
Indicator selection Indicators support
monitoring in context of
EU’s Habitats Directive,
the Biodiversity
Directive and can
contribute to work of
Intergovernmental
Platform on Biodiversity
and ecosystem services
(IPBES)
A
Aʹ
UK parent model with
FVCOM-ERSEM
Nested high
resolution local area
(30m-2km)
Environmental resources: Aquaculture
M. edulis
© R. Zenz, CC3.0
C. gigas
© D. Mannion, CC3.0
T. philippinarum
© wikimedia, CC3.0
P. maximus
© FAO
Locate: Land Ocean Carbon Transfer
• The largest organic carbon
reserves in Europe are in the
soil of North Scotland and the
largest peat areas are in Wales
and Southwest England
• Decreasing levels of acidifying
air pollution has led to a 60%
increase in dissolved organic
carbon levels of rivers over 25
years, affecting riverine carbon
losses and drinking water
supplies
• Restoring some elements of our
carbon reserves could cost up
to £570 million over the next 40
years
• LOCATE is sampling one third
of the rivers that drain the UK
Challenges: Land Coastal Interface.
Aim: to accelerate the pull through and integration of national-scale high resolution environmental
prediction capabilities to useful science and service.
UK Environmental Prediction Initiative Project
JWPRC
Underpinning observations
Sampling on the River Dart
Observing Systems
Satellite Socio-
Economic
Satellites
Model
Improved estimates and
confidence on marine
biogeochemical indicators
of health and productivity
Forecast system
Autonomous Vehicles
Guidance System
Combining Autonomous observations and Models
for Predicting and Understanding Shelf seas –
CAMPUS
Challenges: Improved Monitoring
Challenges: Data assimilation
Application of Data Assimilation
to improve forecast of
deoxygenation events
Observations
Re
an
aly
sis
Unbiased median absolute error Six more variables…
pCO2
NO3: Nitrate
Temperature
O2
Challenges: Uncertainty and Skill Assessment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
passive Fasham ERGOM ERSEM
run
tim
e r
ela
tive
to
ph
ysic
s-o
nly
conservation checks
range checks
sources
vertical movement (sinking/floating)
open boundaries (BCOND)
vertical diffusion (VDIF)
advection smoother (FCT)
advection (ADV)
physics
Performance
BGC
FABM
pelagic state
variables
benthic state
variables
passive 1 0
Fasham 7 0
ERGOM 10 2
ERSEM 50 36
Profiling: Intel Fortran compiler 14.0, LIMITED_2;GCY1;MPDATA;FABM;WET_DRY;MULTIPROCESSOR;PROJ, serial run
Challenges: Computational Cost
Mizer, trait-based community size-spectrum ecological
model
Challenges: Ecological, economic and social impacts
Anthropogenic intervention (decrease river nutrients by 30%)
results in a decrease of fish biomass
Thank you