Denisse McLean Belize, August 2010. 46% 11% 4% 0% 2% 37%
Denisse McLean
Belize, August 2010.
46%
11%4%0%
2%
37%
1. Present the modeling results to keystakeholders and decision makers.
2. Help countries in the implementationof a new model run with updated information
To present the fundamental concepts of GLOBIO methodology and to present theresults of the modeling exercise for theregion and the country
Land use:◦ Light use: hunting and gathering◦ Moderate use: selective extraction, extensive pastures◦ Conversion: agriculture, wood extraction, forest
plantations, cultivated grasslands
Natural area fragmentation
Pollution: Nitrogen deposition, nutrientleaking, toxic substances, noise, lights
Water, changes in hidrology
Climate change: emissions, temperature increase
Direct and indirect economic values
Importance for poverty reduction
Ecosistem goods and services provision protection
Political commitment to the Convention on BiologicalDiversity◦ Significant reduction of the rate of biodiversity loss
National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (170 countries)
Original
Biodiversity
Habitat destruction
Overexplotation
Pollution
Infrastructure and fragmentation
Climate Change
Sustainable use
Restoration
Mitigationmeasures
ProtectedAreas
100%
0%
Developed by the Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency
(PBL) and the United Nation Environmental Program (UNEP)
Methodology to measure and evaluate biodiversity loss due to
the effect of human pressures
Estimates the relative importance of each pressure
Evaluates the exchanges between socioeconomic developments
and the environment at the global, regional and national scale
Evaluate current state
Identify trends and evaluate policy options
Estimulate discussion
Integrate biodiversity as a transversal issue
Support decision making
What is the current state of biodiversity?
Which are the causes of biodiversity loss?
What will be the future state?
Will (nationals/internationals) targets be attained?
Which options can be taken to attain them?
Goals
past present
Policy options
future
EnvironmentBiodiversity
Known as MSA
Single indicator used in the methodology to assessbiodiversity
Mean abundance relative to original abundance in undisturbed state
Proxy of the indicator of “abundance and distritution of a set of selected species” recommended by CBD
Land use (intensity and changes)
Road infrastructure
Natural area fragmentation
Climate change
Atmospheric Nitrogen deposition
MSA
GlobalUNEP Global Biodiversity Outlook2, and Geographic Environmental Outlook 4, OECD & FAO Environmental Assessments
RegionalGloblal deserts, Environmental Performance Assessment of the Mekong subregion, EU-Ruralis, Central America
NationalColombia, Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Panama, Mexico, Nicaragua, Kenya, Mozambique,Zambia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Tailandia, Vietnam
ProvincesYunan (China), Quang Nam (Vietnam)
GLOBIO Applications
13
14
Global Model
Alkemade et al., 2009
Global Model
When other indicators do not provide enough information about the state of biodiversity in an area
When information is only available for specific areas
When looking to identify and analyse biodiversity loss trends
16
When looking to evaluate the impact of human pressures in biodiversity
When looking to evaluate quantitatively and qualitatively the impact of environmental policies
When looking to prove if policies will attain the expected environmental objectives
Methodology and indicator limitations◦ Contexts of application◦ Figures vs. Trends◦ Need to complement with other indicators
Input quality
Models are not definitive and should be improved based on available information
In order to generate incidence results should be embedded in a specific policy process
Thank you