Mobilizing Youth within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs

Workshop on

Mobilizing Youth within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs

CGIAR Consortium Office Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015

Joint presentation by

Bruno Losch (CIRAD)

and

Karen Brooks (Policies, Institutions, and Markets)

Understanding the context for

youth employment

1 -The structural challenges

Workshop on Mobilizing Youth

within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs

Session 1CGIAR Consortium Office

Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015

Bruno Losch

CAUTION!

Youth are not located on an island!

They are fully embedded in the overall economy and society

Options for supporting youth are framed by the context

They must be included in development strategies

REMINDERS ABOUT

STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

The new patterns of population growth

Source: WPP 2012

Population increase among world regionsand countries: past and future

The new demographic structure

-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Population in millionsMale 2015 Female 2015

Male 2035 Female 2035

-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Population in millionsMale 2015 Female 2015

Male 2035 Female 2035

-160 -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 160

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Population in millionsMale 2015 Female 2015

Male 2035 Female 2035

Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia and Pacific

Source: Filmer & Fox. 2014. Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington DC: World Bank.

The changing weight of rural people

Until 2050, rural population will decrease globally (-150M) but rural SSA will continue to grow by 350 million and rural South Asia will increase till the mid-2040

In these two regions rising rural population is a challenge:

For the absorption of

a growing labor force

For its consequences

on demographic densities

and farm structures and NR

Rural Population Increase(2010-50)Source: WUP 2014

The decreasing role of agriculture

The role of rural areas and agriculture is fully embedded within the process of structural change

Growing productivity in agriculture => release of labor force for other sectors => exit to the city

Growing agricultural incomes => rural demand => rural diversification

Main world regions followed the historical pathway at different paces

Initiated with the European industrial revolution

Followed by European offshoots + Japan (until WWII) and then spread Latin America, South Korea, East Europe

The situation is more diverse in Asia and Africa with major differences between countries: many places are lagging

The transformation pathway:Similar trends, different pace (1965-2005)

Source: RuralStruc program

Agriculture shares decrease

with growing incomes

The major push of the labor force

is in SSA, South and SE Asia

Growth of the labor force (2010-2050) Yearly cohorts of new workers in SSA

Africa will count for 60% of the world’s labor force increase

•12 out of the 19m people entering the labor market/year in SSA live in rural areas

•Between now and 2030, SSA’s economies will have to incorporate 370m youth, 220m in rural areas and 150m in cities

Sources: WPP 2012; RuralStruc

The specific situation of Africa

African economic transition is lagging

Dramatic changes since the 1960s but…

Urbanization occurred without industrialization

Agriculture remains the biggest single source of employment (50 to 60%) with 30-35% in other informal activities and 5-15% in the formal sector

The challenges of structural transformation are faced within a specific “moment”

Globalization: opportunities but competition

Growing natural constraints: resources and climate change

The African equation:

“How to deal with a growing labor force with a poorly diversified economic structure in today’s context?”

Different contexts result in different

opportunities and constraints for youth

The role of agriculture depends on off-farm opportunities and factors availability

The number of farms is impacted by demographic growth + exit options + available agricultural land (resulting from nature and infrastructure) + production systems (farm structure)

In Asia: the trend is towards labor shortage and growing farm sizes due to declining rural population (growth rate and urbanization)

In Africa: growing rural population results in more farms if land availability exists or decreasing sizes in case of land pressure

These features embrace the youth specifics related to factor and voice access and share of returns

Youth Employment in Agriculture:

Prospects and Role for CGIAR

Karen Brooks, Director of the CGIARResearch Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

“Youth and agriculture” issues: Different regions, different views

• East Asia: aging rural work force, few young women want to marry farmers—who will farm in the next generation?

• Central Asia: young men migrate to Russia (until recently), women remain behind on farms

• Africa south of the Sahara: (Ministry of Finance) urban areas have too many underemployed young people, better to keep them on farms

• Africa south of the Sahara: (Ministry of Agriculture) young people don’t want to farm, abandoning rural areas

• South Asia: Too few jobs all around, skills gaps

Framing of the issue affects design of remedies

When is exit the problem? And when is staying the problem?

Exit

– Opportunity if attracted out

• Good jobs off farms

• Land and labor markets adjust quickly with minimal costs

– Problem if pushed out

• Few off-farm jobs; skills issues

• Available jobs have low productivity; illegal sector

• Join urban poor

• Urban poverty preferred due to amenities

Stay

– Opportunity if chosen

• New land available

• Technical change, dynamism

• Demand for food strong

• Off-farm jobs and mixed livelihoods

– Problem if stuck

• Land markets locked up

• Technical stagnation; backward technology

• Young people feel trapped

Specific to Africa south of the Sahara: Despite exit, agriculture is still the dominant employer and will remain so

Young Africans will work in agriculture

• Fortunately, this is a time of opportunity in the sector, especially in Africa.

– Growing local and regional

demand

– Available land and water

– Global prices likely to go back up

– Potential to raise productivity

• Key question is whether productivity rises enough to sustain competitiveness

Technical backwardness shuts out young people—quashes opportunities and aspirations

Biggest systemic constraint to youth employment in Africa south of the Sahara is under-investment in agricultural research

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Millio

ns $

(2005,

PP

P)

Ag Spending, Research Ag Spending, Total

Source: ASTI (Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators) database 2015 and SPEED

(Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development) database 2015.

Total spending on agriculture and agriculture research in Africa south of the Sahara,

2000-2009

What kinds of jobs? Different pathways

Pathways have differential needs for land, capital (finance), and information (skills)

70% of young Africans in agriculture have less than complete primary schooling

Agendas for action and research

Action Agenda

• Land

• Skills

• Finance

• Technology

• Embed youth lens in virtually everything; e.g., Science Agenda for African Agriculture

• Support the informal sector

Research Agenda

• Rigorous impact assessments of pilots

• Surveys to understand occupational choice

• Age-disaggregated data on program beneficiaries for all programs

• Age and adoption of technology

• Age and control of land

• Innovative ways to provide information and advice to low-skilled

• Bundling of financial and other services to increase access

Assessment of Experience of World Bank and IFC with Youth Employment Projects

IEG 2012

Success may simply be undocumented…in much of sub-Saharan

Africa. Robust analytic work should underpin youth employment interventions because of the

greater institutional risks they face.

• Short term effects

• Limited positive results

• Little attention to cost effectiveness

• Questionable results from short-term skills building

• Little known about labor market outcomes, livelihoods

• Basic dearth of evidence

Implications for CGIAR

• Measure impact of any pilot programs

– Design into plan from the beginning

• Increase collection and analysis of age-disaggregated data

• Provide training and mentoring opportunities for young scientists from developing countries

• Work with NARS, NGOs, CBOs, media to raise visibility of young people

• Integrative CRPs—highlight systemic constraints

• Agri-food System CRPs

– Identify features of technology that appeal to young people (if any)

– Pilot interventions that make technology accessible to young people

THANK YOU! Photo credit: Neil Palmer (CIAT), Flickr