Missouri River Basin Water Management - United States Army€¦ · Missouri River Basin Water Management Fall 2014 PublicFall 2014 Public Meetings October 27th October 28th October

Missouri River Basin Water ManagementFall 2014 Public MeetingsFall 2014 Public Meetings

hOctober 27th

October 28th

October 28th

O t b 29th

6:00 p.m. 11:00 a.m. 6:00 p.m.11 00

Fort Peck, MTBismarck, NDPierre, SDS ith ill MOOctober 29th

October 29th11:00 a.m.6:00 p.m.

Smithville, MOCouncil Bluffs, IA

US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG

®

Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System

Fort Peck Dam and Reservoir Garrison Dam and Reservoir

Fort Peck

GarrisonMontana

NorthDakotaNorthDakota

Oahe Big Bend

SouthDakotaOahe Dam and Reservoir Big Bend Dam and Reservoir

Fort Randall

Gavins PointWyoming

Nebraska

Iowa

Gavins Point Dam and Reservoir

KansasMissouri

Colorado

Fort Randall Dam and Reservoir

Missouri

2

Our MissionRegulate Missouri River Mainstem Reservoirs to

Water Supply Water Quality C t lFl d C t l Hydropower

gSupport Congressionally Authorized Purposes

ControlFlood Control Hydropower

Navigation IrrigationFish and Wildlife Including Threatened and

Recreation

gEndangered Species

3

4

Missouri River Mainstem SystemStorage Zones and Allocations StorageStorage Zones and Allocations

Exclusive Flood Control 6%72.4

67 7

72.8

StorageIn MAF*

Historic max - 2011

56.1

67.7

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% 58.7Oct 22, 2014

Carryover

We are here

Carryover Multiple Use 53% 33.9Historic min - 2007

Permanent Pool 25%

17.6

*Storages updated in August 2013 b d i

0

5

based on reservoir surveys.

Mainstem Reservoir Storage Capacity

25Million Acre-Feet

20

15

5

10

0

5

Fort Peck Garrison Oahe Big Bend Fort Randall Gavins Point

Permanent Carryover Annual Flood Exclusive Flood 6

Runoff ComponentsMountain SnowpackPlains Snowpack Rainfall

May, June d J l

March and A il

March through O t band JulyApril October

2014 Forecast = 35 5 MAF 141% of normal*2014 Forecast = 35.5 MAF, 141% of normal

7*October 1 forecast; normal runoff is 25.2 MAF

Plains Snowpack

March 1, 2013March 1, 2011

March 1, 2014

8

a c , 0

Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

Missouri River Basin2013 14 Mountain Snowpack Water Content

26Total above Fort Peck

26Total Fort Peck to Garrison

2013-14 Mountain Snowpack Water Content

1820222426

quiv

alen

t

1820222426

quiv

alen

t

132%140%

1012141618

f Wat

er E

q

1012141618

fWat

er E

q02468

Inch

es o

f

2468

Inch

es o

f 0

O N D J F M A M J J A S

2013-14 1981-2010 Ave

0O N D J F M A M J J A S

2013-14 1981-2010 Ave

Source: USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) Water and Climate Center 9

Precipitation Percent of Normal

Previous 180 Days

Previous 90 Days

10Source: National Weather Service, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center (MBRFC)

1111

12

Long-Term OutlooksTemperature and Precipitationp p

Nov-Dec-Jan Nov-Dec-Jan

13Source: National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

NOAA Outlooks for 2014-15 Winter/SpringMi i Ri B iMissouri River Basin

The basin is predominantly drought free. Soil moisture in most of the p y gbasin is wetter than average entering the winter because of heavy summer and fall precipitation.

Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are likely for winter (65% chance), y ( )which is reflected in the precipitation and temperature outlooks for the winter months.

Temperature Outlook – increased chance of warmer than normal in the upper basin, and equal chances in the lower basin, for most of the winter and early spring based on El Niño conditions.

Precipitation Outlook – no strong indicators; equal chances of dry, wet or close to normal for the winter and early spring for most of the basin. Weak chance of drier-than-average conditions in western Montana.

Drought Outlook – no significant change in drought conditions expected.

Source: Doug Kluck, Regional Climate Services Director, Central Region, NOAA 14

Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IAAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA

70Million Acre-Feet

Historic Drought Periods

50

60Historic Drought Periods

2014

30

40U.D.

U Q

10%

25%

34.5 MAF

30.6

20

30

L.D.L.Q.

U.Q.

Med.

90% 75%

25%

50%

16.119.3

30.6

24.6

0

10

01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

15Year

Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2014 Actual and Forecast2014 Actual and Forecast

8

9Million Acre-Feet

6

7

8

4

5

6

2

3

0

1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 Normal Forecast 16

Fall / Winter Releases Starting in late August releases have been above normal in order to Starting in late August releases have been above normal in order to

evacuate stored flood waters and prepare the reservoir system for the 2015 runoff seasonG i P i D i l ill b d d i Gavins Point Dam winter releases will be reduced to winter rate beginning approximately December 1st (10-day extension of navigation season)

Will closely monitor channel/ice conditions between reservoirs and downstream of Gavins Point Dam

Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 20 kcfs (1000 cfs) to completeGavins Point Dam winter releases of 20 kcfs (1000 cfs) to complete evacuation of stored flood waters

Expected releases in kcfs:N D J F bNov Dec Jan Feb

Fort Peck 5.0 6.5 7.5 7.5Garrison 22.0 19.0 24.0 24.0

17

Garrison 22.0 19.0 24.0 24.0 Gavins Point 45.5 20.0 20.0 20.0

Results of 2014 Regulation and Planned Operation forPlanned Operation for

Authorized Purposes in 2015p

18

Current Reservoir Levels – October 22, 2014F t P k G i

Elevation in feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

2220 1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

2250

2220 1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

2246

2234

18541850

1837.5

Fort Peck Garrison

2233 0

1843.4

2220.1

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent

2220.1

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent2160 1775

2233.0

Permanent Pool

Permanent Pool

2030 1673

Oahe Fort Randall

1.0 feet below base of Flood Control zone Elevation in

feet mslElevation in

feet msl

5.9 feet above base of Flood Control zone

2220.1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use2220.1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

16201617

1607.5

13751365

1350

Oahe Fort Randall

1610.71346.92220.1

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent

2220.1

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent1540 1320Permanent

PoolPermanent

Pool1415 1240

3.1 feet below base of Flood Control zone 193.2 feet above base of Flood Control zone

System Storage 2014-2015 Draft AOP

75

2014 2015 Draft AOP

Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 MAF

Million Acre-Feet

65

70Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 MAF

60

65

55Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 MAF

50System Storage Check

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

45J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

2014 2015 201620

Upper Decile and Lower Decile

Fort Peck 2014-2015 Draft AOP

2250 Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 2250 feet mslElevation in feet msl

2240

2245 Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 2246 feet msl

2235

2240

Base of Annual Flood Control – 2234 feet msl

2230

2225

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

2220J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

2014 2015 201621

Upper Decile and Lower Decile

Garrison2014-2015 Draft AOP

1855 Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1854 feet mslElevation in feet msl

1845

1850 Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1850 feet msl

1840

1845

1835

Base of Annual Flood Control – 1837.5 feet msl

1830

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

1825J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

2014 2015 201622

Upper Decile and Lower Decile

Oahe 2014-2015 Draft AOP

1620 Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1620 feet msl

Base of Exclusive Flood Control 1617 feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

1610

1615Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1617 feet msl

1605

1610Base of Annual Flood Control – 1607.5 feet msl

1600

1595

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

1590J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

2014 2015 201623

Upper Decile and Lower Decile

Flood Damages Prevented by Mainstem DamsIndexed to 2013 Levels

25.025

30 Billion Dollars

20

25

12.915

Total Damages Prevented = $53.6 billion

7.8 8.2

5.6

10

0.3

3.12.0

0.1

3.1

0.5 0.4

3.2 3.72.5

.

0.0 0.20

5

0

24

Flood Control

System storage started this year 5.5 MAF below the base of the annual flood control zone►Peaked at 61.3 MAF, utilizing 32% of total , g

flood storage

All scenarios start next year’s runoffAll scenarios start next year s runoff season at the base of the annual flood control zonecontrol zone Flooding can still occur due to

d t i f lldownstream rainfall25

Hydropower

14

16Billion kWh

10

12

14

8

10

4

6

0

2

54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 1454 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14

Gavins Point Fort Randall Big Bend Oahe Garrison Fort Peck ForecastYear

26

Missouri RiverTotal Navigation Tonnageg g

10Million Tons

789

456

234

01

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Commercial Waterway Materials Sand and Gravel Estimated27

Year

2014 – Full length season + 10-day extensionNavigation

► 3,000 cfs below full service first half of season► Service level increased to full service after July 1 storage check

R l i d b f ll i i l t A t t t► Releases increased above full service in late August to evacuate stored flood water

2015 – March 15 Storage Check2015 March 15 Storage Check► Full service level flow support (all runoff scenarios)► Target locations: Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City and

Kansas City

2015 – July 1 Storage Check► F ll l th ( ll ff i )► Full length season (all runoff scenarios)

• 10-day extension for upper quartile and upper decile runoff► Full service level flow support for lower quartile runoff and

above

28

Water Supply – Water QualityIrrigation – Recreation

2014

Irrigation Recreation

►Normal to above normal elevations and releases• Water supply intakes, recreation areas, irrigation, and

imarinas

►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 20 kcfs 2015

►Near normal pool levels and releases►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 17 kcfs

under median runoff

29

Fish and Wildlife

Steady to rising levels at upper three y g ppreservoirs during forage fish spawn►Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff below►Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff below

normal

Mi i i i d f l t F t Minimize periods of zero releases at Fort Randall Coldwater habitat will be monitored

30

Endangered Species Act of 1973g pEach Federal agency shall... ensure that any action authorized, funded, or carried out by such agency… is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat…

Piping PloverPiping PloverListed “Threatened” 1986

Interior Least TernListed “Endangered” 1986

Pallid SturgeonListed “Endangered” 1990 31

Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species

2014 Regulation from mid-May to mid-August

Piping Plover and Least Tern

2014 Regulation from mid May to mid August Availability of sandbar habitat remains high Adult populations and nest success down mainly due Adult populations and nest success down mainly due

to high reservoir levels this summer Fledge ratiosFledge ratios

►Piping plover fledge ratios met on Garrison and Gavins Point river reachesGavins Point river reaches

32

Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species

2015 Gavins Point

Piping Plover and Least Tern

►Steady release – flow to target►Cycle Gavins Point releases

Intra-day peaking patterns – Garrison and Fort Randall Measures to minimize take

►Utilize Kansas River projects for navigation►Utilize Kansas River projects for navigation support

►Target flows may not be met in reaches without►Target flows may not be met in reaches without commercial navigation

33

Bi Modal Spring Pulse Pallid SturgeonThreatened and Endangered Species

2003 A d d Bi l i l O i i

Bi-Modal Spring Pulse – Pallid Sturgeon

2003 Amended Biological Opinion –Reasonable and Prudent Alternative Neither pulse conducted in 2014 Neither pulse planned in 2015

i i d d i d i l►Pursuing independent science advisory panel (ISAP) recommendations

►Forego spring pulse while developing►Forego spring pulse while developing management plan

34

Summary

All flood storage space available to start All flood storage space available to start 2015 runoff season Near normal releases and reservoir levels

(median runoff)( ) Good service to all authorized purposes

35

Thank You!Jody Farhat, P.E. 402.996.3840 [email protected]

Thank You!

Kevin Grode, P.E. 402.996.3870 [email protected] Swenson, P.E. 402.996.3860 [email protected]

Written comments on draft AOP accepted through November 21, 2014. Comments may be e-mailed to:

Missouri.Water.Management@nwd02.usace.army.milMissouri.Water.Management@nwd02.usace.army.milor mailed to:

Missouri River Basin Water Management1616 C it l A S it 3651616 Capitol Avenue, Suite 365, Omaha, NE 68102-4909.

website: http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/36