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Mission Operations Cost Estimation Tool (MOCET)
Update
Marc Hayhurst, Brian Wood, Shirin EftekharzadehThe Aerospace Corporation
Cindy Daniels, Lissa Jordin, Washito Sasamoto, Waldo RodriguezNASA Langley Research CenterScience Office for Mission Assessments (SOMA)
MOCET Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)Earth Science, Explorers, and Near Earth Discovery Helio Astro
CER Name
Earth Science,
Explorers, and Near
Earth Discovery
Helio Astro
Checkout CER
Earth Science
Prime Operations
CER
Explorer Prime
Operations CER
Near Earth
Discovery Helio
Astro Prime
Operations
Equation Inputs
P = Prime mission operations average monthly cost
PD = Peak Downlink data rate from the spacecraft in megabits per
second
IFL = Is this a Large or Flagship mission class mission? (0 No, 1 Yes)
IMe = Is this a Medium mission class mission? (0 No, 1 Yes)
IMi = Is this a Micro mission class mission? (0 No, 1 Yes)
IA = Is this an Astrophysics mission? (0 No, 1 Yes)
IF = Is this a Flagship mission class mission? (0 No, 1 Yes)
No.
Inputs
1
2
3
2
N
13
13
12
Adj.
R^2
or
r^2
0.87
0.97
0.94
SEE (%)
or
SE
(RSS)
0.59
0.19
0.06
Y = Average Monthly cost for phase (FY13)
N = Number of Data points
Adj. R^2 = Adjusted Coefficient of Determination
r^2 = Correlation Coefficient
SEE = Standard Error of the Estimate (Zero
Percentage Bias Minimum Percentage Error)
SE (RSS) = Standard Error (Root Sum of Squares) 9741.1* IFIL *194.5*5894.0337 IFLPD *5782.1*0083.0204 IAIMiIMe *1204.0*3018.0*3135.0677 Updated in version 1.1
10
Model Performance
• The model was compared against actual mission costs to gauge performance
• Standard Deviation for all missions was found to be 20% (from 25% in v1.0)
• Planetary: 27% (v1.0 = 32%)
• Earth/Near Earth Orbiting: 16% (v1.0 = 22%)
v1.1
v1.0
11
MOCET User Community
• Since last years cost symposium and the release of v1.0 we have worked to engage the user
community
We have also briefed key personnel in the various NASA program offices for awareness of how
projects that fall under their portfolios will be evaluated
– Programs can also use MOCET to size program budgets for Phase E
As of late June 2016, approximately 30+ unique users have downloaded MOCET from ONCE
– A survey conducted by CAD (SID) in March 2016 showed 27 MOCET users
Expect user community to grow with proposal cycles and future release to contractors and
universities via the NASA Software Catalog at https://software.nasa.gov
User workshops are opportunities for users to learn more about MOCET and voice feedback that
can help steer future releases of MOCET
– First ever workshop was held virtually in June of 2016
– Next workshop will be held virtually in November of 2016
A feedback form is available with the tool for users to fill out
– We have already received a number of responses that have helped us make improvements to the tool this FY