-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUDAN AGRO-INDUSTRY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT
for
10 000 TCD CAPACITY SUGAR FACTORY PROJECTS
prepared by
THE FEDERAL MINISTERY OF AGRICULTURE
INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT AGENCY (IDeA)
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUGAR IN THE SUDAN FOREWARD The Sugar Industry in Sudan is well
established with proven track records on production efficiencies
and technological advancements. Since establishment of the first
sugar factory in 1962; the domestic sugar industry has sustained
steady growth and expansion. In addition to progressing on the
knowledge and expertise accumulated over its 50 years history, the
Sudan sugar industry is also advancing amid global technological
developments in the fields of bio-energy: cogeneration and ethanol.
Building on this the Government of Sudan has created The Sudan
Grand Sugar Plan, a strategic vision to enforce and expand Sudans
production capacities in accordance with the global diversified
sugar industry model that has already been established within the
country. The plan is being spearheaded by the Ministry of
Agriculture in keen collaboration with related ministries and
authorities, by proactively seeking and encouraging investment in
the sector, from both local and foreign investors and through
strategic partnerships. The Ministry of Agriculture has already
earmarked potential areas within irrigated schemes for this
strategic sugar expansion vision and plan. Moreover, it is
compiling a series of feasibility studies for each of the
identified project locations, to clearly demonstrate and further
promote the lucrative potential of these opportunities to
prospective investors.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
CONTENTS:
THE SUDAN SUGAR SECTOR HISTORY OF SUGAR IN SUDAN SUGAR
PRODUCTION SUGAR CONSUMPTION PATTERNS FACTORS AFFECTING SUGAR
CONSUMPTION GROWTH PATTERNS SUPPLY VS DEMAND BALANCES SUDANS SUGAR
IMPORTS SUDAN'S SUGAR EXPORTS DOMESTIC SUGAR POLICY PROTECTIONS FOR
THE DOMESTIC SUGAR MARKET GOVERNMENT SUGAR EXPANSION PLANS FIRST
PHASE EXPANSION PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENTS CONTRACT SIGNED PROJECTS IN
PIPELINE PROJECT DESCRIPTION THE PROJECT LOCATION THE PROPOSED SITE
FOR THE NEW SUGAR PROJECT THE GEZIRA SCHEME BACKGROUND GEZIRA
SCHEME ADMINISTRATION THE SCHEME CONFIGURATION THE IRRIGATION
SYSTEM IRRIGATION WATER RESOURCES IRRIGATION SYSTEM INFRATRUCTURE
AND WATER DELIVERY MANAGEMENT IRRGATION INFRASTRUCTURE REHABILITION
INSTALLATION OF ADDITIONAL CAPACITY CURRENT CROP CULTIVATION THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR CANE CULTIVATION AT THE PROPOSED SITE 35 YEARS
TRACK RECORD OF SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION AGRONOMIC SUITABILITY
IMPROVEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY COOPERATION OF SGB AND FARMERS TYPES
OF SUGAR PRODUCED IN SUDAN SUGAR INDUSTRY BY-PRODUCTS ETHANOL
PRODUCTION IN SUDAN PROJECTED YIELD SUDAN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
THE INVESTMENT ENCOURAGEMENT ACT 1999 (AMENDED 2007) PRIVILEGES,
FACILITIES, GUARANTEES, PROCEDURE FOR APPLICATION FINANCIAL
APPRAISAL ASSUMPTIONS FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS FINANCIAL
RESULTS FINANCIAL PARAMETERS NET PRESENT VALUE INTERNAL RATE OF
RETURN PAY BACK PERIOD RISK ANALYSIS APPENDICES
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
TABLES Table 1: Start Of Production, Designed And Highest
Achieved Production Levels of the Five Sugar Factories Table 2:
Production by Existing Sugar Factories Table 3: Sudan Sugar
Consumption And Production Table 4: Sudans Production of Selected
Processed Food And Drinks Table 5: Sudan Sugar Consumption Total
and Per Capita Consumption (Kg/Person) Table 6: Sugar Production
Surplus / Deficit Table 7: Phase 1 Sugar Expansion Plan Table 8:
By-Products off the Sugar Industry Table 9: Sudan Molasses Exports
Table 10: Expected Yield of By-Products of Project Table 11:
Depreciation Rates per annum (Straight Line) and Amortization Table
12: Total Project Fixed Assets Table 13: Project Fixed Assets in
US$ Table 14: Working Capital in US$ Table 15: Project Capital Cost
and Source of Finance in US$ Table 16: Summary of Capital Cost
Table 17: Project Productivity Table 18: Project Revenue in US$
Table 19: Annual Operation Costs in US$ Table 20: Depreciation and
Amortisation Table 21: Short-term Loan in US$ Table 22: Summary of
Total Operating Cost in US$ Table 23: Project Income Statement in
US$ Table 24: Project Cash Flow in US$ Table 25: Sensitivity
Analysis FIGURES Figure 1: Share of Sugar Factories in Overall
Production Figure 2: Sudan Sugar Consumption Figure 3: Population
Growth & Average Growth Rate Figure 4: Sudan's Percentage Age
Distribution Figure 5: Supply vs. Consumption Balances up to
2005/06 Figure 6: Illustrates the Quantity of Sugar Imported by
Sudan Until 2006 Figure 7: Illustrates the Quantity of Sugar
Exported by Sudan up to 2006/7 Figure 8: The Locations Of Each
Project Are Indicated In The Map Below Figure 9: Location of Sennar
State Figure 10: Map Transport Links Figure 11: Geographic
Perspective Figure 12: Gezira Scheme Figure 13: Growth in
Productivity
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
THE SUDAN SUGAR SECTOR HISTORY OF SUGAR IN SUDAN The Sudanese
sugar industry started in the early 1960s. Currently, the
production capacity, i.e. design capacity of the existing five
sugar factories, is 755,000 tons. The soaring world sugar prices in
the late 1950s motivated the Government of Sudan to plan
establishment of a sugar industry to ease pressure on its foreign
exchange reserves and create jobs and employment within a new
industrial environment. The El Guneid Sugar Factory was
commissioned in 1962 and the New Halfa Sugar Factory in 1964, each
with a sugar production capacity of 60,000 tons per annum. The two
projects were established to meet the then domestic demand levels
estimated at 120,000 tons per annum. In the early seventies the
Sudanese Government designed a new plan to meet the growing demand
for sugar. Three major sugar plantations were successfully
constructed, namely Hajar Assalaya, North West Sennar and Kenana.
Kenana Sugar Company (KSC) was established as a private
(integrated) company while Sudans remaining four sugar plantations
were administered by the Sudanese Sugar Company (SSC), a publicly
owned enterprise. Table 1: Start of production, designed and
highest achieved production levels of the five sugar factories
Factory Start of
Production Total Area (Feddans)
Current Plant Design Capacity (Tons Sugar p.a.)
Highest Actual Production
(Tons Sugar p.a.)
El Guneid 1962 40 000 60 000 94 171
New Halfa 1964 40 000 75 000* 87 759
North West Sennar
1976 38 000 110 000 92 038
Hajar Assalaya 1979 44 000 110 000 97 500
Kenana 1980 87 000 400 000** 427 895
Total 755 000 799 363
Source: SSC and Kenana Sugar Company
*Original plant design capacity of New Halfa: 60,000 tons **
Original plant design capacity of Kenana: 300,000 tons Sugar
production in the Sudan was insufficient to meet domestic
consumption levels until the mid-1980s when a serious
rehabilitation program was launched in all sugar projects. The
industry was further developed utilizing the best of its
accumulated knowledge and experience as well as introducing new
practices and mechanisms. Sugar production in Sudan witnessed a
steady growth due to the improved efficiency in all sugar
factories. Cane and sugar yields picked up to satisfy local
consumption, estimated at 500,000 metric tons in the early 1990s.
And, before the end of that decade, with its sugar surplus, Sudan
became an exporter to its regional neighbours as well as to Europe.
From the late 1990s, both the SSC and KSC implemented further
expansion strategies bringing about further significant increases
in yields.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUGAR PRODUCTION Today, Sudans Sugar Industry is well
established with proven track records on production efficiencies
and technological advancements: reaching production levels of
756,849 tons, in the 2006/7 cropping year. Record peak production
of each factory, combined, totals to 799,363 tons. Table 2:
Production by existing Sugar Factories Crop Year SUDAN SUGAR
COMPANY KENANA
SUGAR CO. SUDAN TOTAL El Guneid New Halfa North West
Sennar Hajar
Assalaya 1997/98 58 600 61 615 43 000 38 000 356 000 557 215
1998/99 69 550 75 547 55 064 45 234 365 000 610 395
1999/2000 71 697 86 368 64 523 54 194 387 044 663 836
2000/01 82 065 85 111 62 207 59 709 403 486 692 578
2001/02 94 171 85 037 78 187 64 310 376 039 697 744
2002/03 81 595 86 741 83 530 76 381 398 268 726 515
2003/04 87 082 87 759 78 692 73 488 427 895 754 916
2004/05 86 615 72 002 72 400 87 515 393 002 711 534
2005/06 84 771 81 136 80 630 81 372 400 209 728 118
2006/07 87 211 83 050 92 038 89 510 405 040 756 849
2007/08 84 800 81 100 85 500 90 900 402 300 744 600
2008/09 87 600 84 200 87 100 97 500 382 100 738 500
2009/10 88 200 57 300 76 600 75 400 344 400 641 900
Source: Central Bank of Sudan Annual Report 2009 and 2010, and
KSC and SSC Figure 1: Share of Sugar Factories in Overall
Production
11%
11%
12%
12%
54%
El Geneid
New Halfa
North West Sennar
Hajar Assalaya
Kenana
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
RECENT SUGAR PRODUCTION TRENDS The total production of the five
sugar factories decreased by 1.6%: from 0.756 million tons in the
2006/7 season to 0.7446 million tons in the 2007/8 season. This was
due to decrease in the production of all sugar factories except
Hajar Assalaya sugar factory, which increased its production by
1.6%. The total sugar production (The Sudanese Sugar Company and
Kenana Co.) decreased further in 2008/9 to 738.5 thousand tons, due
to a decrease in production of Kenana Sugar Factory by 5.02%.
However, during the same period, the Sudan Sugar company had in
fact posted an increase in production, in all its factories, by a
total of 4.12%. A steep drop to 641,900 tons was registered in
total production in 2009/10 season a decrease from the previous
year by 13.1%. Both the sugar companies expect to return to normal
production levels during 2010/11 season.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUGAR CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Domestic sugar consumption has
burgeoned in Sudan, almost doubling from 1998 to 2006, and again
within the 4 years to 2010. (From 2006 to 2010, sugar consumption
increased by 87.39%. within 1 year alone, from 2009 to 2010, sugar
consumption swelled by 82.88%). Total domestic demand in 2010 was
1,666,406 tons1. Figure 2: Sudan Sugar Consumption
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
2004/05 2005/06
CONSUMPTION (MT)
CONSUMPTION (MT)
Source: Calculations based on data from the Central Bureau of
Statistics, and SSC and KSC Table 3: Sudan Sugar Consumption vs.
Production
YEARS 1997/8 1998/9 1999/ 2000
2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9
2010
TOTAL CONSUMPTION
451,474 528,052 617,469 708,377 751,121 722,641 747,814 848,560
889,291 911,212
2 1,666,4
06
TOTAL PRODUCTION
557,224 610,395 663,836 692,688 696,825 728,335 754,915 711,533
728,117 756,849 744,600 738,500 641,900
Source: SSC and KSC
1 Central Bank of Sudan Annual Report 2010: in 2010 domestic
sugar production was 641,900 tons; 1,024,506 tons imported; zero
exported. 2 Central Bank of Sudan Annual Report 2010: in 2009
domestic sugar production 738,500 tons; 203,112 tons imported;
30,400 tons exported.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
FACTORS AFFECTING SUGAR CONSUMPTION GROWTH PATTERNS The strong
growth in sugar consumption can be attributed to four major
factors:
i. partial liberalisation of the market ii. developments in the
sugar-consuming processed foods and drinks industries iii. strong
economic growth iv. population increase
POLICY MODIFICATION MEASURES Until 2001, sugar prices and
distribution were controlled by the Government, to curtail demand.
During the 1980s consumption grew by a meagre 1.5% per annum, a
rate lower than that for population growth, indicating a decline in
per capita consumption. During the 1990s growth in consumption
increased to 4.3% per annum. After the introduction of a new
distribution policy in 2001, as a first step towards the full
liberalization of the domestic sugar market, sugar consumption
witnessed a staggering growth of 12.3% between 2001/2002. By 2005,
Sudans total consumption of white sugar exceeded domestic
production3. INDUSTRIAL DEMAND FOR SUGAR Between 1999 and 2006, the
production of soft drinks increased from 108 to 535 million litres,
while the production of other sugar-consuming foods, such as
biscuits, sweets, jams and juices increased by over 33%. The 2009
figures are similar to those of the 2006 (ref. Central Bank of
Sudan Annual report 2009) Table 4: Sudans Production of Selected
Processed Food and Drinks Units 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006
Soft drinks 000 litres 108,000 120,000 121,200 192,000 312,000
336,000 529,200 535,080
Biscuits 000 tons 35 39.4 39 54 52 40 65 48
Sweets 000 tons 63 65 50 49 31.5 32 35 54.5
Jams 000 tons 5 8 5.5 15 6 5 6.5 8
Juices 000 tons 9.17 18.4 30 28 - 24 32 39 Source: Central Bank
of Sudan Annual reports
3 Total consumption of white sugar exceeded domestic production
in 2005 by over 137,000 tons; in 2006, by over 161,000 tons. In,
2010, the sugar deficit was over 1 million tons.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
ECONOMIC GROWTH In least developed countries, the demand for
sugar is elastic with respect to income, i.e. demand increases more
than proportionately with income. Income elasticity declines as the
level of income drops. Income elasticity is very high at very low
per capita incomes, it then declines to about +1 in the order of
$400 to $500 US per capita income, and continues to decrease to
about zero when per capita income reaches a range of about $2000 -
$3000. Beyond this level, the income elasticity may even be
slightly negative. Per Capita consumption in the Sudan grew by 165%
from 1998 to 2006. Per Capita income, a summary measure of the
living standard of average citizens, increased from $348 to $1,393
over ten years since the advent of oil exports in 1999. GDP Per
Capita grew rapidly: US$ 892.3 in 1999 to 1,083.10 in 2001; in
2004, it stood at US$ 1,991.20; in 2008, it was US$ 3,262.60. Real
GDP growth rates were 7.8% in 2008, 6.1% in 2009 and 5.1%
(estimate) in 2010. The African Development Bank (ADB) forecasts
real GDP growth to average at approximately 5% during the years
2011 to 2013. Table 5: Sudan Sugar Consumption Total and per Capita
Consumption (kg/person)
CROP YEAR SUGAR CONSUMPTION (MT) POPULATION (thousands) SUGAR
CONSUMTION PER
CAPITA (Kg)
1997/98 451,474 29,397 15.4
1998/99 528,052 30,062 17.6
1999/2000 617,560 30,741 20.1
2000/01 708,377 31,437 22.5
2001/02 751,121 32,151 23.4
2002/03 722,641 32,878 22.0
2003/04 747,814 33,610 22.2
2004/05 848,560 34,282 24.8
2005/06 889,291 34,968 25.4
2010 1,666,406 40,134,000* 41.5
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, KSC and SSC, Press reports
(various including Reuters) *Source: IMF 2010 World Economic
Outlook September 2010 estimate
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
POPULATION STATISTICS IMPACTING GROWTH IN SUGAR DEMAND In
accordance with the data Sudan in Figures 2004-2008 published by
Sudan Ministry of the Cabinet - Central Bureau of Statistics,
Sudans population stood at 39.15 million, compared to a population
of 25.6 million recorded in 1993 census, representing a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.827%. On the basis of this growth
rate, the population of Sudan reached approximately 41 million in
2010. Figure 3: Population Growth & Average Growth Rate
The Central Bureau of Statistics has projected Sudans population
to grow at 2.46% p.a. for the period from 2009 to 2013 and to
further grow at 2.21% p.a. for the period to 2018. Youth
Population: Sudans population is predominantly young. Further
impacting on demand growth rates, as younger individuals consume
more sugar and sugar processed foods and drinks. 54.01% of the
population is in the age bracket of 15-64 years while 42.61% are
under 15 years of age, only about 3.38% are older than 64.
42.61%54.01%
3.38%
under 15 15 - 64 older than 64
Figure 4: Sudan's Percentage Age Distribution
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Rapid Urbanization: further enhances demand growth. The life
styles of urban societies (even the poor) tend to boost the
consumption of processed foods and soft drinks hence urbanization
leads to direct and in direct increases in the per capita
consumption of sugar. In Sudan, the urban community increased from
860,000 people in 1995/6 to 12,488,000 in 2004. With a population
of 5.27 million, Khartoum State is home to over 13% of Sudans
population. Khartoums population had grown at a CAGR of
approximately 3.28% between the 1993 census and the most recent
2008 census. 88.2% of Khartoum State residents are classified as
urban. Due to increased rate of migration to the Capital, Khartoum
States population is estimated to grow at a faster pace of 3.34%
p.a. for the five years to 2013 and at 2.97% p.a. for the following
5 years to 2018.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUPPLY VS DEMAND BALANCES Production was outstripped by domestic
demand as of 2005, when consumption of white sugar exceeded
domestic production by over 137,000 tons. The following year, this
gap climbed to more than 161,000 tons. In 2010, the sugar deficit
grew to over 1,000,000 tons. (According to the 2010 Annual Report
of the Central Bank of Sudan, 1,024,506 tons of sugar were
imported). In 2010, total domestic demand was (likely in excess of)
1,666,406 tons, while total domestic production was 641,900 tons.
Despite this setback in production levels*, there is a real and
widening gap4, which continues to be bridged by imports. Figure 5:
Supply vs. Consumption Balances up to 2005/06
557,224 610,395
663,836 692,688 696,825 728,335 754,915 711,533 728,117
-451,474 -528,052
-617,469 -708,377
-751,121 -722,641 -747,814
-848,560 -889,291
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
2005/06
Table 6: Sugar Production Surplus / Deficit
YEARS 1997/
98 1998/
99 1999/ 2000
2000/ 01
2001/ 02
2002/ 03
2003/ 04
2004/ 05
2005/ 06
2009/ 10
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 451,474 528,052 617,469 708,377 751,121
722,641 747,814 848,560 889,291 1,666,406
TOTAL PRODUCTION 557,224 610,395 663,836 692,688 696,825 728,335
754,915 711,533 728,117 641,900
SURPLUS / DEFICIT 105,750 82,343 46,367 -15,689 -54,296 5,694
7,101 -137,027 -161,174 -1,024,506
Source: SSC and KSC
4 *even at optimal production levels of 755,000 tons, there gap
would have been 911,406 tons
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Real Demand Outstrips Projections The UNDP econometric model,
developed to project patterns of sugar consumption in several
Sub-Saharan African countries, was utilized for projections of
Sudans consumption growth patterns. The model was tested against
real historic data to gauge its effectiveness and consistency with
Sudan growth patterns. The model predicted that consumption would
reach 850,000 tons of white sugar by 2005. Thus, it proved a
reliable tool for projections for future consumption growth
patterns. Using this model, sugar consumption was projected to grow
to 1,020,664 tons by 2010/2011 and 1,202,087 in 2013/2014. In
actual fact, sugar consumption levels hit 1,666,406 tons in
2009/2010. The figures clearly indicate not only a widening sugar
deficit, but exceedingly higher and accelerated rates of
consumption growth patterns than anticipated. It may be deemed a
reasonable observation, that the domestic market could absorb
additional supplies if made available, thereby rendering much
higher demand statistics and, consequentially consumption growth
rates. It is clearly evident that unless additional capacities are
established, Sudan will continue to import increasing amounts of
sugar to satisfy its domestic market. Consequently, it will lose
its lucrative export markets: a negative impact on the countrys
foreign exchange earnings. (Sudan did not export any sugar in 2010.
Conversely, sugar imports of over 1 million tons in 2010, cost the
country over US$ 500 million).
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUDANS SUGAR IMPORTS Historically, Sudan used to cover most of
its sugar requirements by regularly importing sugar from the
international market. Following steady expansions in its local
production facilities, Sudan became self sufficient in 1985/1986.
Since then, hardly any sugar was imported until the year 2000, when
Sudan had to import some 100,000 tons of sugar to cover a temporary
sugar deficit. Again in 2005, an explosion in the demand for sugar,
forced the government to import considerable quantities of sugar.
Figure 6: illustrates the quantity of sugar imported by Sudan until
2006
Source: Statistical year Book for the Year 2007, Ministry of the
Cabinet
In 2008 the Government of Sudan imported US$ 0.2 million worth
of sugar. In the following year, sugar imports burgeoned to a value
of US$ 108.9 million, for 203,112 tons. The year 2010 witnessed a
staggering growth in sugar imports of 1,024,506 tons, valued at US$
502.4 million. (Source: Central Bank of Sudan Annual Report 2010).
This trend is expected to continue until the countrys major
expansion plans are implemented.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000 Total Import
Total Import
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUDAN'S SUGAR EXPORTS With successful expansions in production
levels, Sudanese sugar producers were able to export sugar for the
first time in 1992. Although the volume of sugar exported was small
at the beginning, exported quantities increased steadily to reach
105,000 metric tons during the crop season 1997/98. Figure 7:
illustrates the quantity of sugar exported by Sudan up to
2006/7
Sugar exports have steadily declined from 30,045 tons in 2007,
to 30,587 tons in 2008, to 30,400 tons in 2009. In 2010, sugar
exports from the Sudan were zero. Export earnings from sugar
increased from USD 15.1 million in 2008 to USD 18.5 million in
2009, because of the increase in the international prices. Sudan
has exported sugar to Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, Egypt,
Chad, the Central African Republic, India, Bangladesh, Bulgaria and
the European Union, in the past.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
White Sugar Raw Sugar
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR EXPORTS The EUs Everything But Arms
Initiative (EBA) trade agreement grants LDCs (Least Developed
Countries, such as Sudan) unlimited / quota-free and duty-free
access to its sugar market. However, provisional constraints remain
on year-to-year increases in export volumes of zero-duty raw sugar
imports for refining. The EU preferential price for raw sugar5
declined from the highly lucrative 524/ton (US$681/ton at the time)
to 335 (currently at exchange rate of 1.429, approx. $479/ton) by
2009 due to recent reforms to the EU sugar regime. The EU price was
scheduled to remain at 335/ton until at least 2014 when the policy
is scheduled for review. During July 2011, the average European
sugar import price was US cents 26.81 per pound of sugar, CIF
Europe, equivalent to approximately US$ 589.82/ton. At its peak
this year, in April 2011, it stood at an average of US cents 27.18
per pound, US$ 597.96/ton. Another potential destination of
exportable surplus of raw sugar is the Middle East refineries.
COMESA is another important market. Even without access to the EU,
Sudan can export profitably to the region. Under the COMESA
Agreement, Sudan can export sugar to FTA countries duty-free and
quota-free. In addition to the opportunities provided by the
COMESA, the rest of the regional market is growing rapidly. The EU
has also been a large exporter of white sugar to the region, but
the recent WTO ruling against EU subsidized sugar exports will
reduce EU sugar exports to the region by 45million tons per year.
While competition from other major sugar exporters, such as Brazil,
will remain, the use of sugar cane for ethanol production and
expected high energy prices will limit Brazils exports and will
likely keep world sugar prices from falling to the extreme lows of
2000. Finally, growing world demand for bio-fuels, such as ethanol
made from sugar cane, is pushing up the world price for sugar. This
has increased by 69 percent between 2004 and April 2008 (World
Bank, 2009). The potential destinations for exportable surplus of
white sugar:
African land locked countries e.g. Chad and Central African
Republic COMESA members like Egypt, Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti,
Ethiopia, Eritrea, etc. Other African countries Arab Countries like
Yemen and markets with no sugar refineries in the Middle East
Sudan has a number of attractive sugar export opportunities and
can use them to develop an efficient and profitable export-oriented
sugar industry, which can provide strong export earnings, foreign
currency, employment and other benefits to the country without
heavily burdening domestic consumers. However, even with
preferential access to the EU and COMESA markets, sugar exporters
are not likely to obtain prices which are as high as those
currently available in the protected domestic market. After
additional capacities are installed Sudan's sugar exports are
expected to be a major feature in the countrys balance of trade. 5
The volume of white sugar is multiplied by a factor of 1.087 to be
converted into the equivalent level of raw sugar.
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
DOMESTIC SUGAR POLICY The Sudanese Government is gradually
liberalizing its domestic sugar policies. Prior to the
establishment of KSC, the entire Sudanese sugar industry was run by
a public enterprise. All the sugar produced in Sudan was sold
domestically at a set administered price to the Sudanese Government
and distributed by a parastatal sugar marketing and sales board,
who had a de jure monopoly over domestic sales and exports. The
domestic factory gate price of sugar was fixed by the Government
and the domestic quota was then allocated amongst the various
markets and regions under the supervision and instruction of the
Sudanese Government. The SSC, wholly owned by the Government, is
responsible for operating the governments existing four sugar
mills. SSC devotes 100% of its production to satisfy the domestic
market. On the other hand KSC was established to bridge the
domestic sugar deficit and whenever the sugar balance allows,
exporting sugar for the generation of foreign capital. According to
the Sugar Sales Agreement concluded with the Government of Sudan in
1975, KSC was obligated to sell only 50% of its produce to the
Government, (under a domestic quota clause), at a fixed guaranteed
price. The company had unrestricted rights to export the remaining
50% (under an export quota clause). The domestic factory gate price
of sugar was guaranteed to remain constant with a constant US
dollar, at the price level set in 1975, which was then slightly
above the prevailing world price for sugar. Retrospectively, this
turned out to be an extremely favourable historical price
reference, as the world price for sugar subsequently declined. In
2002, the Sudanese Government dismantled the sugar marketing board
and the two sugar companies shouldered the responsibility of
marketing their produce. The 50% export quota requirement for KSC
was lifted, and KSC is now free to allocate its sales between
domestic and export markets as deemed profitable. In response to
the relaxation of market constraints, domestic consumption
increased drastically as explained above. Currently, the domestic /
ex-factory price at which both companies are allowed to sell their
sugar produce (to wholesalers) is determined each year by a sugar
planning committee. This committee is comprised of representatives
from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry, the
Ministry of Trade, the two sugar producing companies and major
industrial users of sugar. PROTECTIONS FOR THE DOMESTIC SUGAR
MARKET Like many sugar-producing countries, Sudan has always
considered sugar a strategic commodity and has been able to
effectively shield its domestic sugar market from sugar importers.
For many years, the Sudanese Government has used certain measures
to restrict sugar imports. However, recently the Sudanese
Governments domestic sugar policies have evolved towards gradually
easing the constraint on imports. The Government of Sudan will
continue to protect its local producers by shielding its market.
The mechanism used to determine the price of sugar will remain
intact.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
GOVERNMENT SUGAR EXPANSION PLANS The Government of the Sudan has
developed an ambitious plan to expand domestic sugar production by
2 million tons, over a two-phased programme, by establishing new
sugar projects in different parts of the country. The projects
sites earmarked for the First Phase Expansion Programme, of about 1
million tons, are all located within irrigated schemes. Table 7:
Phase 1 Sugar Expansion Plan
Figure 8: The locations of each project are indicated in the map
below:
PROJECT LOCATION AREA (FEDDANS)
FACTORY CAPACITY (TCD)
SUGAR PRODUCTION (TONS P.A.)
ABGAR (White Nile State)
30 000 5 000 94 500
ES SUKI (Sennar State)
30 000 5 000 94 500
ALHADDAF & WADALFDIL (Gezira State)
30 000 5 000 94 500
HURGA A NOURALDIN (Gezira State)
30 000 5 000 94 500
NEW HALFA (Kassala State)
55 000 10 000 189 000
RAHAD (Gezira / Gadarif State)
55 000 10 000 189 000
SENNAR (Sennar State)
55 000 10 000 189 000
TOTAL 285 000 50 000 945 000
Kassala State: New Halfa
Gezira State: Rahad Elhaddaf & Wad El Fadil Hurga a
Nooraldin
White Nile State: Abgar
Sennar State: Es Suki Sennar
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
FIRST PHASE EXPANSION PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENTS Iranian
entrepreneurs have just signed contracts, formally securing their
investment opportunity in establishing the new sugar factory
project in the New Halfa Irrigation Scheme. OTHER PROJECTS IN
PIPELINE The Sudan Sugar Company is renovating its four exiting
factories to increase output from 350,000 to 500,000 tonnes of
sugar by November 2013 and upgrade quality. The renovation is
self-financing. The SSC has further plans, to build three new
factories with a total of 375,000 tonnes capacity, and has already
secured funding from China of US$260 million for one 125,000 tonne
capacity plant with a refinery in Sennar State. It is also working
to source funds for the other two factories, to be located in
Gezira State. Kenana Sugar Company has plans to expand its capacity
to 650,000 tons by 2015. The White Nile Sugar Project (WNSP), a
private joint venture between KSC and Egyptian investors (Beltone
Private Equity), aims to produce about 450,000 tons of sugar
annually, by 2015. Other sugar projects have been proposed in
different parts of the country. Among these are a beet sugar
factory in northern and central Sudan and a cane factory in the
south. However, definitive plans for these sugar factories are yet
to be completed. A sugar refinery is to be established in Port
Sudan. The private joint venture between Kenana Sugar Company and
Eridania Sadam -- of the Maccafferri Group (Italian) --, a leader
in the Italian sugar market, will start with an initial capacity of
processing 500,000 tons of raw sugar. The 90 million euro (US$
129.6 million) plant is expected to be commissioned in the first
quarter of 2014. Its capacity is planned to be double to 1 million
tons in the future. The Red Sea Sugar Refinery will process cane
sugar produced in Sudan. 50% of the sugar will be sold in Italy and
Europe, the rest is earmarked for the African markets.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
PROJECT DESCRIPTION THE PROJECT LOCATION The proposed new Sennar
Sugar Factory project will be located within the southern section
of the Gezira Irrigation Scheme, which runs into the south east
Sudan State of Sennar. Sennar State lies in the rich savannah
region between latitude 12.5-14.7N and longitude 32.8-35.4S. It
borders with Gezira State in the north, White Nile and Upper Nile
States in the west, Gadarif State in the east, Blue Nile State in
the South. The southern-most tip of Gezira Irrigation Scheme is
approximately 35-50kms north of the town of Sennar, which is
situated 245kms south east of Khartoum, at GPS Coordinates: 13 34
15 N and 33 33 26 E. Figure 9: Location of SENNAR STATE
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
TRANSPORT CONNECTIONS: The smooth asphalt Sinar-Wad Medani
Highway connects Sennar to Khartoum. Port Sudan is easily
accessible, by road via the Khartoum-Port Sudan Highway, and air.
Figure 10: Transport Links
THE PROPOSED SITE FOR THE NEW SUGAR PROJECT The 55,000 feddans
(23,000 hectares) site, identified for the new sugar project, is
adjacent -- above and to the right -- to the existing North West
Sennar Sugar Factory sugar cane estate. The sugar mill GPS
Coordinates are: 13 44 24 N and 33 28 40 E; at elevation of 432 m.
The location is earmarked for its various suitability factors, from
agronomic to logistic, including land availability, existence of
irrigation infrastructures, proximity to a well-established sugar
cane estate and mill, as well as those pertaining to socio-economic
development benefits.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Figure 11: Geographic Perspective
Border of Gezira Irrigation Scheme Main Canals in the Gezira
Scheme Sennar Dam El Guneid Sugar Factory and North West Sennar
Sugar Factory
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
THE GEZIRA SCHEME BACKGROUND The Gezira Scheme, at about 882,000
hectares6 (2.1 million feddans), constitutes one of largest
irrigated agriculture complexes of the world, producing the bulk of
the countrys cash crops. It lies between the Blue and White Nile
Rivers: begins just shortly southeast of their confluence at the
city of Khartoum, spans through El Gezira State and the north of
the State of Sennar, and ends just north of the Sennar Dam. The
Scheme has played an important role in the economic development of
Sudan, serving as a major source of foreign exchange earnings and
of Government revenue. It also contributes to national food
security and in generating a livelihood for the 2.7 million people
who now live in the command area of the scheme. This, Sudans first
agriculture, was established by the British in 1925 for the
cultivation of cotton7, especially the long staple. It was
initially financed by the Sudan Plantations Syndicate in London and
later the British government guaranteed capital to develop it. The
Gezira Board took over from private enterprise in 1950. In July
1962, the original Gezira Scheme was doubled through its Managil
South Western Extension. Waters of the Blue Nile are distributed by
gravity irrigation to the tenant farms, through a network of canals
and field channels.
Operation of the scheme is centrally controlled: the management
is divided between the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources
(MIWR), which is responsible for the irrigation network, and the
Sudan Gezira Board (SGB), which is responsible for agricultural
operation and for determining the irrigation water requirements.
The water orders (or indents) are passed to the MIWR engineers,
summed out throughout the system up to the head works at the Sennar
Dam.
6 The irrigated area now covers 3,400 miles (8,800 km). 7 The
first plan was to grow wheat but this was abandoned when it was
discovered that Egyptian-type long staple cotton could be grown.
Cotton was first grown in the area in 1904 and, after many
experiments with irrigation, 9 miles (24 km) was put under
cultivation in 1914.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Figure 12: The Gezira Scheme:
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
GEZIRA SCHEME ADMINISTRATION
The Government of Sudan owns the Gezira scheme.
The Gezira Scheme is managed on a vertically integrated basis by
the semi-autonomous Sudan Gezira Board (SGB), which provides
administration, credit8 and marketing services. The tenant farmers
operate the scheme in partnership / cooperation with the government
and the SGB. The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) supervises the SGB,
while the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MIWR) is
responsible for delivering irrigation water.
Within the scheme, the SGB serves as landlord, operates and
maintains the lower reaches of the irrigation system and
administers most of the inputs and services9 required by farmers to
produce cotton, (financed by the Sudan Cotton Company10). The SGB
recovers the cost of advances made for inputs and services from the
cotton sales before payment is made to the farmer. Tenants are
wholly responsible for growing other crops in prescribed rotations
with cotton (e.g. sorghum, groundnuts, forage, wheat and
vegetables), making their own arrangements for input supplies and
marketing.
THE SCHEME CONFIGURATION The Gezira Scheme is divided into 18
groups and some 114 000 tenancies on an average holding of 20
feddans (about 8 ha). The scheme is designed on small-farm
ownership (Hawashat) with an area ranging between 15 and 40
feddans. The 18 groups, range in size from 60,000 to 190,000
feddans. Each group consists of smaller units called blocks. These
blocks consist of numbers, each of 90 feddans. Initially, the
tenants practised a six-course rotation. Each tenant had to plant
according to the approved rotation so that, for example, all the
cotton grows at the same time. This was changed in the early 1980s
to an eight-course rotation (cotton, fallow, fallow, cotton,
fallow, sorghum, cowpea and fallow), with a nominal cropping
intensity of 50 percent. This kept the demand for water within the
capacity of the irrigation system. Since then, there has been
further diversification and intensification11.
8 Finance is provided by the Agriculture Bank of Sudan and Sudan
Cotton Company. Agriculture Bank of Sudan provides short-term (12
18 months) loans for agriculture inputs e.g. land preparation,
seeds, fertilisers, etc. It takes some of the produce at a
predetermined price as part loan repayment the Bank applies varying
modes of financing terms and packages, as appropriate. The Bank
also provides long term financing, 3 5 years for purchase of
agriculture machinery. 9 SGB transports the cotton to the Schemes
ginneries 10 Sudan Cotton Company buys all the seed cotton less the
upfront loan for production costs, on a cash-on-delivery basis.
11 In 1991/92 cropping intensity was 80 percent. However,
productivity of the scheme decreased due to the various irrigation
issues. The corresponding drop in farm incomes in the late 1990s
resulted in a drop of cropping intensity to 40 percent. An
initiative aimed at "Broadening farmers choices on farm systems and
water management" by FAO in part of the scheme, meant that
productivity of sorghum, cotton and wheat was to be increased to
112 percent for 2000/01, compared to the Gezira average of 42
percent.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Until recently, the main Gezira scheme had a nominal cropping
intensity of 75 percent in a five-course rotation of cotton, wheat,
groundnuts and sorghum with one fallow, while the Managil scheme
had a 100-percent cropping intensity with no fallow. However,
fallow has now also been introduced in the Managil scheme in order
to give a target cropping intensity of 75 percent throughout. (The
actual intensity has been below that figure in recent years).
Gezira Scheme Act of 2005 In 2005 a new Act for Gezira Scheme was
issued as part of the privatization policy. Taking into account the
unique situation of the scheme regarding its ownership,
(government, administration and farmers), and in coping with the
declared privatization policy in addition to the need for
institutional reformation, the Gezira Scheme Act was issued in
2005. The Act asserts that the infrastructures of the scheme are
considered to be part of the national resources; that the integrity
of the scheme land and its agricultural aims are to be emphasized,
and that the scheme administrative unity - which includes
agricultural, irrigation, research and agricultural and industrial
elements - should constitute the essential factors and basic
components. Moreover, it ensures the necessity of the comprehensive
sponsorship of the state. The Act states the right of farmers'
participation in decision making with regard to agricultural
activities, options of crops, financing, marketing, commerce and
investment. The farmers own the land through a lease contract with
the government renewed every 40 years to settle duplication of
ownership of the scheme and to unify the ownership system. THE
IRRIGATION SYSTEM
The Gezira (meaning "island") is particularly suited to
irrigation because the soil slopes away from the Blue Nile and
water therefore naturally runs through the irrigation canals by
gravity. The soil has a high clay content which keeps down losses
from seepage.
The Scheme was designed12 to use about 9.226 MCM (million cubic
meters) of water annually.
The irrigation system was laid out to suit the size of tenancy
and crop rotation. The flat and featureless topography was
favourable to the adoption of a regular gridiron layout. The basic
unit is a group of four adjacent fields of 90 feddans. One crop is
grown on each strip following the four-crop rotation system. Each
block is divided into 18 tenant fields of 2.2 hectares each. The
scheme is divided between 114,000 tenants with an average of about
8 hectares.
The two parallel main canals13 running from head works have a
combined capacity of 354 cubic metres per second. One of the main
canals diverges westwards to serve Managil Extension. The other,
together with a newer one, continues northwards. Each of these main
canals subdivides into branches and major and minor canals of
varying sizes.
12 However, according to official reports from the Ministry of
Irrigation and Water Resources of Sudan, the long-term average of
water use is 7,000 MCM annually. 13 The main canal particulars:
Design Bed Width 12m; Water Depth 2.3m; Side slope 2:1; Surface
Width 22m.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
In total there are some 11,000 kilometres of irrigation canals:
a network of 2,300kms of branch and main canals, and about 1,500
minor canals with a total length of over 8,000kms. All canals are
divided into reaches by cross regulators which are the control
points for the off-taking canals. The 29,000 field channels are
1.5kms each.
The minor, branch and main canals are designed as regime
conveyance channels. The minor canals are also designed for storing
water flowing continuously from the main canals at night.
Water flows from the main to the minor canals are controlled by
movable weirs, which provide accurate and easy water measurements,
but is sensitive to upstream variations of water level. The two
dams that regulate the flow of the Blue Nile River are undergoing
further rehabilitation works to ensure these variations are
minimised (Please refer to relevant section below for further
details).
The irrigation system is not a sophisticated one by present-day
standards, as it was designed before the development of modern
technologies of canal water control. However, the design took the
best advantage of some favourable and unique features of Gezira:
the flat topography and the adopted tenancy system, i.e. the
absence of constraints imposed by small, fragmented, field plots
found in many developing countries. The adoption of the night
storage system resolved the issue of night irrigation found in many
schemes. It provides a remarkable solution to the complex problem
of adjusting water releases at the head works and at critical
points of the system to the demand without excessive losses.
The unique design of the system enables the minor canals to play
the role of terminal reservoirs. The Gezira scheme can be based on
either rigid or highly flexible scheduling (operation), as long as
the indenting ensures adequate refilling of the minor canals.
For about forty years, the Gezira Scheme was operated
satisfactorily on the basis of the original design and operational
concept.
The management of the Gezira scheme ran into problems in the
early 1970s shortly after the scheme reached its present extension.
The steady deterioration of trade in Sudan led to shortages of
financial resources. Funds became insufficient to finance the high
recurrent operation and maintenance costs and to replace machinery
and equipment. For lack of financial resources, MIWR was not able
to cope with the removal of silt and clearance of weed. The
situation was worsened by the breakdown of the telephone system,
which was a vital tool for communication between SGB and MIWR for
the water indent process. All these factors resulted in inadequate
use of the system. The degree of siltation in some minor canals was
such that precious little water reached the tail blocks and some
areas went out of production.
Since, the Gezira Scheme has undergone a series of
Rehabilitation Programmes: in 1980/81, in 1982/83 until 1990/1,
both financed by the World Bank and other donor agencies; various
during the course of the last decade (2000-2010); and some
currently in progress.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
IRRIGATION WATER RESOURCES
After the lowest Nile flood for 200 years, the countrys
inaugural Sennar Dam was constructed on the Blue Nile14, near the
town of Sennar. It was purpose built to provide a reservoir of
water for irrigating the Gezira Scheme. Commissioned in 1925 with a
design capacity of 0.93 BCM (billion cubic metres), the Dam is
about 2 miles (3.025 km / 9,925 feet) long, with a maximum height
of 40 meters (130 feet). The installed hydroelectric capacity is 15
MW.
It is estimated that the Sennar Dam reservoir storage capacity
is reduced to 0.36 BCM due to sediment deposition. Since the
commissioning of the Roseires Dam upstream in 1966, the
sedimentation problem in the Sennar Dam is signicantly
decreased.
The multipurpose Roseires Dam reservoir design capacity of 3.35
BCM, serves to augment irrigation water, in a bid to expand and
intensify agriculture on the Gezira Scheme. Its installed
hydropower capacity is 280 MW, though generation varies greatly
through the year with changing river flows. The Nile rises
dramatically in the flood season between July and September when
the dams five massive sluice gates are opened to permit silt to
flow down the Nile and to avoid siltation of the reservoir. Heavy
siltation has affected an estimated capacity loss of 34%, down to
2.2 BCM. IRRIGATION SYSTEM INFRASTRUCTURE AND WATER DELIVERY
MANAGEMENT
The MIWR is responsible for the O&M of the main irrigation
system, i.e. the Dams on the Blue Nile and the upper reaches of the
irrigation system (irrigation canals up to the minor off-takes)
responding to requests for water delivery from SGB field staff. The
SGB is responsible for the operation and maintenance of the minor
irrigation system.
The Ministry of Finance and National Economy provides the MIWR
with the annual budgets for operation and maintenance.
IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE REHABILITATION A German company was
commissioned to repair the corroded steel lining of the gates of
the Roseires Dam the process was carried out during several months
of each year from December onwards, (over the last half of the
previous decade), when downstream access to the gates was possible.
Finance15 for the work was provided by the Islamic Development
Bank.
Sennar Dam was also recently rehabilitated, as part of a
programme to rehabilitate the Gezira irrigation scheme. Work
included refurbishment of the sluiceways and installation of
additional isolating gates. The two irrigation channels are soon to
be refurbished.
14 Blue Nile River originates from the Ethiopian-Eritrean
Highlands 15 loan of 8 million (US$) for the purchase of equipment
to reinforce the capacity
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
INSTALLATION OF ADDITIONAL CAPACITY The height of Roseires Dam
was recently increased by 10 metres. Construction is on-going to
increase the length of the earth embankments on the eastern bank of
the river with about 4.50 km and on the western bank with about 7
km, in order to increase the storage capacity16 to about 7.40 BCM.
The spill water is to be used to intensify agriculture in an area
of 1.70 million hectares of irrigated lands. Two 194 km-long
irrigation canals, to irrigate 36,000 km2, are included in this
project. Hydropower generation will increase by up to 50% -- (an
additional of about 800 GW/hour per year). Funding17 for this
project was extended by Saudi Arabia. CURRENT CROP CULTIVATION
The Sudan Comprehensive National Strategy for the Agricultural
Sector (1992-2002) put food security, sustained agricultural
development, efficient resource utilization and yield enhancement
on the top of the agenda.
The main agricultural produce of the Scheme is cotton, sorghum
(dura), wheat, groundnuts and vegetables. Livestock forms an
integral part of the peoples lives and culture. The scheme
contributes by 65% of the country's cotton production, and about
70% of wheat production, 15% of groundnuts, 12% of sorghum, in
addition to 70 thousand feddans cultivated by horticultural
products, forest and fodders. Moreover, there are around 2 million
of heads cattle and goats in the area of the scheme.
16 Especially to counter the cut in cropping intensities on the
Gezira, due to low flows on the Blue Nile. Cropping intensity in
the Gezira Scheme, dropped from 75% to 57%, as 126,000 ha were
taken out of production due to siltation and mismanagement of the
canals, leading to reduced availability of water. Because of bad
water management, water supply is about 12% below crop requirements
at crucial points in the growth cycle, while at the same time as
much as 30% of the water delivered is not used by crops. The new
government in Sudan reports that since 1990 there has been
considerable improvement in agricultural crop production and
returns. 17 USD 40,003,350
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR CANE CULTIVATION AT THE PROPOSED SITE 35
YEARS TRACK RECORD OF SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION The site of the
proposed new sugar factory is located adjacent to the 38,000
feddans North West Sennar Sugar estate. The factory was
commissioned in 1976, with a design capacity of 5,820TCD. Sugar
cane has been cultivated in the area for over 35 years. The mill
has produced over 92,000 tons of sugar in a year. It accounts for
12% of Sudans domestic sugar production. Though, the estate is not
part of the Gezira Scheme itself, it utilizes the same Blue Nile
waters for cane irrigation. Its North West Pumping Station diverts
irrigation water from one of the twin canals running from head
works at the Sennar Dam. AGRONOMIC SUITABILITY The heart of the
countrys agriculture productivity is centred in this region,
through which the rich Blue Nile River flows. It is the food basket
of the country as well as its key cash crop generator. This
semi-arid dry savannah zone has an annual rainfall of 300-600 mm.
The rainfall season starts in May and extends to October: the
wettest period is July to August. Temperatures range between a mean
minimum of 20C in January to a mean maximum of 42C in April and
May. Humidity is relatively high from June to October; highest in
August (about 45%) and lowest in April (about 10%). From November
until April there are strong northerly winds; during the rest of
the year southerly winds prevail. Wind speed is at 2 metres height,
ranging from 144 to 288 km/day. The soils are fertile clays, which
give good yields if managed properly, and are suitable for
sustained crop production. Climate and soil conditions are suitable
for year-round crop production provided water is available.
Conducive agronomic conditions in Sudan for cane growing are partly
attributable for the progress of the industry. Moreover, the
incidence of pests and diseases is not considered a serious
constraint to high cane yields due to a combination of ecological
factors, possibly non-conducive to large scale spread of pests and
diseases in sugarcane producing areas besides the cultivation of
resistant varieties. However, the need for prophylactic and
preventive measures remains high to safeguard and sustain the
improved levels of productivity. The existing North West Sennar
Sugar factory and Sudans other four sugar factories produce
sugarcane under more or less similar climatic conditions to those
prevailing in the proposed project area.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUGAR CANE AND SUGAR PRODUCTION PARAMETERS As it will operate
under the same or similar conditions as those of the other
sugarcane producing areas in the country, the proposed new Sennar
Sugar Project is anticipated to achieve the same levels of
productivity. Under the current yields scenarioI, the proposed new
project is expected to produce 45 tons of sugarcane per feddan,
from which sugar will be extracted at a recovery rate of 10.5%.
Technological and agricultural advances are expected to increase
yields at both the farm and factory levels A point to note: the
Sudan sugar industry has achieved around 49 tons of sugarcane per
feddan with recovery rates of about 11%. SUGARCANE CROP ROTATIONS
Sugarcane is an exhaustive crop requiring high nitrogenous/
phosphate fertilizers and affecting soil texture. In order to
stabilize soil nutrients balance, proper crop rotations are needed
in addition to supplementing deficiencies with application of
chemical fertilizers. The new plantation of sugarcane can
successfully be kept for four years as a ratoon crop with high
sucrose content. In order to maintain soil fertility and
considering the possibility of insect hibernation under prolonged
ratoon period, sugarcane fields are suggested to be left fallow for
one year. The proposed six-year cropping rotations for the
project:
Plant cane (new) ratoon ratoon ratoon ratoon fallow IMPROVEMENTS
IN PRODUCTIVITY SINCE INCEPTION Since establishment of the first
sugar factory in 1962; the domestic sugar industry has sustained
steady growth and expansion. During the first 25 years, Sudan cane
yields were as low as 20-21 tons per feddan. Hajar Assalaya and
Kenana started production in 1976 and 1979, respectively. They both
benefitted greatly from the experiences of El Guneid and New Halfa,
and developed to produce around 45 and 49 tons cane per feddan,
respectively, in their first 25 years. The accumulation of
considerable experience and technical know-how and the adoption of
new technologies, have all ultimately served in securing the
current levels of sustainable production. The Sugar Industry in
Sudan is now well established with proven track records on
production efficiencies and technological advancements.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Figure 13: Growth in Productivity
CONTINUOUS R&D AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS CANE VARIETIES
From the early 1980s to date, over 1,000 different sugarcane
varieties have been tested. The commercial sugarcane varieties now
grown in Sudan, Co6806 and Co997, originate from Coimbatore, India.
Currently, cane varieties are introduced. However, R&D efforts
are ongoing at the national sugarcane breeding stations to achieve
the necessary advancement in the field of cane hybridization, to
breed new elite cane varieties more adaptable to local
environmental conditions, which will result in further boosts to
the industry. PLANTING & HARVESTING Mechanically chopping cane
for planting18 was tested / introduced relatively recently by KSC.
It was found to be more cost-effective, reducing labour costs, and
more time-efficient. Results in a better cane stand were also
noted. Cane harvesting19 was traditionally only done manually, in
Sudan. Shortages in labour coupled with its increasing costs, led
to the introduction of mechanical harvesting in 2000/200120. In
2005/6, KSC harvesting was 62% mechanical, whiles SSC was around
30%. Currently, KSC is almost at 100% mechanical harvesting, and
SSC is more than 50%. The use of Chopper harvesters is now widely
spread in Sudans sugar estates.
18 Planting period extends from October to the end of February.
19 The harvest season in all the sugar factories in Sudan extends
from the first of November to the end of April; possibly May in
some factories 20 The average cost of harvesting one metric ton of
cane manual y in seasons 2000/01, 2001/02 and 02/03 was US$1.83
compared to US$0.51 for harvesting the same amount
mechanically.
0
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
COOPERATION OF SGB AND FARMERS The SGB and the farmers have
expressed keen interest in growing sugar cane for the project if it
were to be managed along the lines practiced at the El Guneid sugar
mills project. The SGB welcomes the opportunity presented by the
new sugar project whereby the farmers can earn higher and more
secure incomes. Sugar Contribution to Socio-Economic Development
The sugar companies provide social services to local communities
such as schools, medical facilities, roads, and water for crops and
household use. Such services are valuable and the quality of these
services often exceeds those provided by the government.
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
TYPES OF SUGAR PRODUCED IN SUDAN Kenana sells both raw and
various qualities of white sugar. There are two different quality
levels for plantation white sugar, with different polarizations and
ICUMSA colour indices and crystal sizes:
Green Cane is plantation white sugar (polarization 99.9%, Grain
size 0.8% to 1.0, ICUMSA Index 100 to150) sold domestically and in
the sub-region for direct human consumption and industrial uses
Silver Cane (Polarization 99.9%, grain size 0.4 to 0.8, ICUMSA
Index 25 to 45
maximum). It has a sparkling white appearance. It is sold
domestically for the higher segments of the domestic market and for
exports
Equally, SSC has two main types of sugar grades or qualities,
white sugar and plantation white sugar. White sugar was also
introduced some few years ago, from the (existing) New Halfa Sugar
Factory. PACKAGING Over the years, Sudanese Sugar Industry has
progressively broadened its product line to accommodate the
specific requirements of the different segments of the market.
Companies are involved in the production of:
Raw Sugar, exported in bulk to the European Union and other
refineries. Raw sugar must be shipped in bulk, in order to minimize
handling costs upon arrival
50 kg sugar bags - polypropylene bags with clear plastic lining
for both domestic and sub-regional African markets. Both raw sugar
and white plantation sugar are packed the same way
Smaller plastic bags (25kg, 10kg, 2kg, and 1 kg bags) - there is
a demand for 25kg and
10kg bags, easily distributed by wholesalers to retailers and
local markets, as well as to the final customer. These have the
added advantage of being easily handled and transported to remote
areas
Icing sugar for baking pastries - sold in paper bags of
different sizes
Previously - sugar cubes (1 kg), processed in small quantities
to meet certain niche
demand. The production of this quality ceased a number of years
ago Several Cane Sugar Syrups (Treacle), are also being offered in
various flavours (brown or white) and in various types of
containers
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUGAR INDUSTRY BY-PRODUCTS The sugar industry by-products bear
important economic significance. These are namely, sugarcane
bagasse, molasses and filter cake. Sugarcane bagasse significance
stems primarily from its energy generation possibilities and more
recently its use in the production of industrial wood known as
Micken Board. Molasses is the heavy syrup used in the food drinks,
and animal feed industries. Other products and their by-products,
of less commercial value, are green leaves and tops, trash, boiler
ash and effluent generated by sugar industry and distillery. Though
many products can be made, production of few is financially viable.
Table 8: By-Products of the Sugar Industry The By-Product
Commercial Uses Biogases
Pulp & paper, particle board, fibre board, cardboard,
furfural, microcrystalline cellulose, hydrolysed biogases,
pre-digested , pith, molasses - urea - pith, furfural cement,
compost
Molasses
Alcohol, fodder yeast, yeast for human consumption, baker's
yeast, yeast autolysate, highprotein molasses, alphaamylase,
azotobacter, rhizobium, C02
Crop residues Animal feed, edible mushrooms compost Filter cake
Compost Animal feed, waxes Wastes & effluents Ferti-irrigation,
biogas, animal feed Ashes Fertilizers Source: Food and Agricultural
Research Council, Rduit, Mauritius
SUGARCANE BAGASSE The fibrous residue of cane generated after
cane is grinded in the milling process, it can be utilized as a
fuel, and therefore as such, by the mill itself. Alternatively,
bagasse is sold out for various applications, such as livestock
feed and filling for Micken Boards, an industrial wood primarily
used to make furniture. Excess bagasse is becoming more and more
used for the cogeneration of electricity, due to its increasingly
important role as a source of renewable energy. Under the Kyoto
Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), renewable energy
projects have the potential to earn additional revenues, in the
form of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Emission reductions
relate to the ton of CO2 that is reduced from being emitted into
the earths atmosphere. CERs equate to a ton of CO2 reduced. Each
CER or ton of CO2 reduced has a monetary value, which is determined
by international market mechanisms. The proposed new project will
use bagasse, as per current normal industry practices, as a
renewable source of fuel to generate power for internal use, which
will reduce operation costs. The excess bagasse will be used for
the cogeneration of electricity, which will be sold to the national
grid for additional revenues. The financials reflect the additional
earnings. The CERs earning potential applicable for renewable
energy has not been included within the financial calculations
herein this study. However, this opportunity should be considered
for further investigation, as it may prove to bring another revenue
stream to the project.
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
FILTER CAKE The residual product of clarification operations, it
can be used as a fertilizer to regenerate the soil. It has been
assumed that the proposed new project will utilize the filter cake
within the sugar cane plantations. SUGARCANE MOLASSES The liquid
syrup remaining after the sugar crystals have been extracted from
the mother liquid, when the massecuite is spun in a centrifuge.
Interest in molasses stems from its sugar residues and hence the
energy generation possibilities it holds. There is a
well-established, and growing international market for molasses;
particularly in the European food, and non-alcoholic and alcoholic
beverages industries. Molasses is also used in the pharmaceutical
industry as a substrate for the production of yeasts, amino acids
and proteins. Molasses can also be used to make ethanol and/or
ethanol mixed fuels, used in the automobile industry. Ethanol is
extensively used in the Brazilian automobile industry. USA uses
substantial quantities of ethanol, (which it produces from corn, as
well as imports from Brazil). Ethanol is now in significant demand
in the developed world, as part of the strategic endeavours to
reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) Emissions and meet Kyoto obligations.
The EU and Japan demand is fast increasing. The conversion of
molasses to fuel grade alcohol can offer a far more attractive and
stable market to the Sudanese sugar producer. The revenue
generation from ethanol has been included with the proposed sugar
project financial appraisal. MARKET FOR MOLASSES The value of the
world molasses market was estimated at US$ 3 billion in 2006 early
2007. Molasses being a by-product of the sugar industry is related
to it in production rate and price. As a rule of thumb, molasses
recovery rate from sugar cane is 4%. Around 55% of the molasses
produced21 is used in the animal feed market, making it a major
consumer of this by-product. Thus, the largest consumers of
molasses worldwide are found in regions with a highly developed
livestock industry, like the EU and the USA. However, changing
global consumer habits are impacting the cattle feed sectors. The
animal feed industry in emerging economies is growing strongly,
which means that this sector is likely to continue to be a dominant
consumer of molasses. Domestic demand for molasses increased in the
years leading up to 2005/6 due to the rapid development of the
Sudanese soft drinks and food industries, which utilize molasses.
Despite steady production of molasses, exports, especially the
prices, were irregular.
21 2006-2007 data
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Table 9: Sudan Molasses Exports YEAR QUANTITY VALUE 1997 138 973
6.671 1998 170 030 5.951 1999 174 958 4.724 2000 224 000 7.840 2001
190 000 7.410 2002 104 399 5.324 2003 184 863 8.689 2004 167 674
7.042 2005 156 242 12.031 Source: KSC
In 2008, 270,572 MT of Molasses was exported, valued at (FOB)
US$21.2m. In 2009, none was exported. That same year, Sudan started
utilising its molasses for ethanol production. ETHANOL PRODUCTION
IN SUDAN KSC, the only company currently producing ethanol from
molasses in Sudan, commissioned its plant in 2009, and exports all
its production of 65 million litres to the European Union. The
plant capacity is to expand to 200 million litres by 2013.
Reportedly, Sudans first 5 million litres of ethanol was sold to
the EU at Euros 450 per cubic metre (FOB). MARKETS FOR ETHANOL The
current general trend in the world is the expansion of ethanol
production. Globally, developed nations are looking at
substituting, at least in part, by blending fossil fuels with more
environmentally friendly renewable sources. There is a huge export
market for ethanol which could be targeted by Sudan. About 70% of
ethanol imports are traded under preferential arrangements within
the EU markets arrangements of generalized system of preferences
(GSP). Under this preferential treatment, ethanol enjoys duty
exemptions and free access to markets. Sudan, as an LDC, enjoys
preferential access to this market under Everything but Arms (EBA).
Other potential markets include Japan, Canada and USA through the
GSP and the American quota system, and also the COMESA region
within which Sudan benefits from the zero tariff Agreement. The
Sudanese domestic market in itself has considerable potential. In
lieu of the implications to Sudans oil reserves due to the recent
cessation of South Sudan, the GoS is keen to explore alternative
sources for energy security. Moreover, it would greatly serve the
countrys vision and imperative aims to develop and strengthen its
agriculture sector, in a bid to diversify and augment non-oil
export earnings, to produce fuel / energy at a competitive price to
drive the sector and boost economic growth. Sudan has also been
considering legislative directives towards effecting 5% minimum
ethanol blend with fossil fuels for the transport sector, which
continues to witness strong growth and demand.
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
PROJECTED YIELD Projected yield from sugarcane to export quality
white sugar is assumed at follows: P Table 10: Expected Yield of
By-Products of Project
BY-PRODUCT YIELD
WHITE SUGAR 10.5%
BAGASSE 35.0%
FINAL MOLASSES 4.0%
MUD CAKES 3.0%
Ro
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Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUDAN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT THE INVESTMENT ENCOURAGEMENT ACT
1999 (AMENDED 2007) The government has set up a dedicated Ministry
of Investment to attract, encourage and facilitate foreign
investment in Sudan. The Investment Encouragement Act 1999 amended
2007, aims at encouraging investment, from foreign or local, in the
following areas: Agricultural, Animal and Industrial activities,
Energy and Mining, Transport, Communication, Tourism and
Environment, Storage, Housing, Contracting, Infrastructure,
Economic, Administrative and Consultative Services, Information
Technology, Education, Health, Water, Culture and Information
Services, crossing more than one state and any other field, as the
Council of Ministers may agree. The Investment Act grants investors
several privileges and facilities if their projects are among those
that realize the objectives of the development plans of Sudan.
Furthermore, the Investment Act does not differentiate between
Sudanese and non-Sudanese investors and gives all investors the
same incentives and privileges. PRIVILEGES The projects may be
granted the following privileges:
Exemption from business profit tax wholly or partially and any
such other taxes or fees as may subsequently be levied on the
projects for a maximum period of five years, which could be
extended for a similar period after approval by the State Council
of Ministers
Exemption from consumption duty, and customs duty and any other
taxes, as may be
levied upon imports of capital goods and annual production
inputs
Allotment of the necessary lands for the project free of charge
for strategic projects, and at a discounted price for nonstrategic
projects
Reduction of the cost of public electricity used for the
purposes of the project
Reduction of public transport fares imposed on the traffic of
the imports and products of
the project
Protection to project products by raising the custom duties on
imported commodities which compete with or act as substitutes to
the products of the project during exemption period
The depreciation of assets, in accordance with renewal
values
Preferential treatments for achievement of justice in the
allocation of development
programs to the regions and especially to the less developed
regions
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
FACILITIES The project may be granted the following facilities
if it directs investment towards rural and general development:
Transmission of profits and financing costs, resulting from
foreign capital or loans
Allotment of necessary proposition of the returns of exports
thereof, to satisfy the provisions of inputs and repayment of its
obligations
Allowing the export of part of the production thereof, to
satisfy its foreign obligations
Importing such raw materials, as it may need
Transmission of savings of expatriates working therein
Guarantee of the freedom of movement, transport and residence of
the persons working
therein
Facilitate the procedure of use of alien expertise, non
available in the country
Allowing payment of the value of the land by instalments
GUARANTEES The project shall enjoy the following guarantees:
Non-nationalization or forfeiture of the project thereof
Non-seizure, expropriation, blocking, forfeiture, custody of the
project
Non-acquisition of the real property of the project, totally or
partially
Transmission of the invested capital, in the case of
non-extension of the project
Settlement of investment disputes according to regional
agreements to which Sudan is a signatory (such as the 1980 Unified
Agreement on Investment of Arab capitals)
After registration of the project as a company with the
registrar of companies, signing of the founder's agreement and
formation of the Board of Directors of the company, application for
the said privileges, facilities and guarantees can be made
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
PROCEDURE FOR APPLICATION The investor shall submit a technical
and economic feasibility study of the project.
The investor shall fill in a special form of application
pertaining to the claims for licensing, privileges of facilities
for an investment project
The Investment Authority in the Ministry shall review the
application form and consult the competent technical organs if
necessary
Upon receipt of approval, the investor shall then register a
business name or company
whose activities shall be limited to its specific field of
licensing only
Upon approval of the business name or company, the investor
shall submit all the relevant documents to the Ministry of Industry
and Investment to be issued the license, which covers the
facilities granted and location of the plot where the premises of
the project in question shall be sited
The Ministry of Industry and Investment shall then contact the
customs authority for the
purpose of customs exemption
The Ministry of Industry and Investment shall also contact the
taxation authorities to exempt the project from tax duties in
accordance with the granted privileges
The Federal or state competent authority shall deliver the land
for the project within a
maximum period of one month of the dale of granting the license.
The investor shall commence the project, not more than twelve
months after receipt of the land, unless the Minister or State
Minister has extended such a period
The investor will submit to the Minister, bi-annual reports on
the progress of the
operation, present the annual accounts of the project, and
maintain records of customs exempted imported materials and assets
during the period of validity of the privileges
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
Companies Law The companies, limited by liability, in Sudan are
governed by The Companies Act 1925. The Sudanese Companies Act is
fairly consistent with English principles of company law. Thus,
public as well as private companies may be established. The
liability of these companies may be limited either by share
contribution or guarantee. Private companies These are private in
ownership and which by their Memorandum of Articles of
Association:
1. Restrict the right of their members or transfer shares
2. Limits the total number of its membership
3. Prohibits any invitation to the public to acquire any shares
or debentures of the company Public companies These have more
freedom to involve the public in its membership through
subscription of shares. In addition:
1. Public companies do not restrict the right of their members
to transfer shares
2. They do not have a limitation as to the maximum number of
members
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
FINANCIAL APPRAISAL ASSUMPTIONS FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND
ANALYSIS Assumptions applied in the development of financial
projections are in line with sugar industry practices in Sudan. The
key assumptions applied are outlined below. PROJECT TOTAL AREA A
total of 55,000 feddans (approximately 23,000 hectares) are
available for the project. Total gross cultivated area is about
40,000 feddans, to produce 45 tons of sugar cane per feddan. LAND
COSTS The land is to be provided by the Government of Sudan for the
project through agreement with local farmers, who will be
stakeholders of the project out-growers type model. Therefore, land
costs have been assumed as zero. PROJECT CAPACITIES The factory is
designed at 10,000 TCD and will be operational for 180 days p.a.
Boilers will have a minimum design pressure of 65 bar (abs) and
will be rated for operation at 65 Bar (abs) at a total temperature
of 500C. The project is assumed to operate at 100% efficiency.
Thus, cane production will be designed to produce 1,800,000 tons of
sugar cane p.a. At a recovery rate of 10.5%, the factory will
produce 189,000 tons of sugar p.a. CAPACITY UTILIZATION It has been
assumed that the project capacity utilization will be 50% for the
first year, and100% from the second year onwards. (100% capacity
utilization is deemed conservative). TABLE OF COMPLETION
Construction period of the project is expected to be two years.
PROJECT LIFE TIME In accordance with the standard practice the
estimated lifetime of the Project is to be 25 years commencing from
the year of commercial production (Year 1). INITIAL INVESTMENT COST
The initial investment cost of the project is estimated to be US
Dollars 170,577,482. This includes cost of all capital items, such
as the industrial plant and equipment, buildings, construction and
civil works, agriculture (including harvesting) machineries,
pre-operating costs, working capital and other.
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
CONCESSIONS The project is considered as exempt from import
taxes and other duties during its lifetime in accordance with the
Investment Act of 1999 (amended 2000) of the Republic of the Sudan.
However, the project investors have to obtain such exemptions
through application to the government authorities. INCOME TAX The
Investment Encouragement Act 1999 (amended 2007) provides
exemptions from tax for a period of five years subject to certain
conditions and approval of the relevant Minister. This exemption is
extendable to a further period of five years. It has been assumed
that the project sponsors will be able to secure the
afore-mentioned exemption. For the development of the financials
for this project no corporation tax has been applied for the entire
project period. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TAX Projected at the rate of 3%
of annual net profits FINANCIAL STRUCTURE The project capital cost
structure is assumed to be financed by 30% equity and 70% loan. The
cost of finance has been assumed as 4.5% for a 10 years long-term
loan with 4 years grace period. Short-term loans interest rate has
been projected at 5%. DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION Rates for
capital assets depreciation are in accordance with the regulations
of the Chamber of Taxation of the Republic of the Sudan. As land,
irrigation infrastructure and corporation taxation costs are not
applicable for this project, the corresponding depreciation and
amortization costs are considered as NIL for the purpose the
development of the financials of this Project. The other rates are
outlined in table below: Table 11: Depreciation Rates per annum
(straight line) and Amortization
Assets Depreciation rate
Factory / Industrial Plant and Equipments 4%
Buildings and civil works 2.5%
Agricultural machinery and equipment (including those for
harvesting) 12.5%
Workshop Equipments 8.5%
Waste treatment unit 4%
Vehicles 20%
Communications, IT Equipment and Furniture 15%
Rehabilitation of Existing Irrigation Systems and Network /
Canals, Equipments, Irrigation Pumps, Pumping Stations and Civil
Works
2.5%
Pre-Operating Expenses Amortized over 10 years
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
ACCOUNTING CURRENCY All values local and foreign are expressed
in USD. Exchange rate applied: USD1 = SDG 2.7. OPERATING
ASSUMPTIONS For the purpose of this study:
1. The costs of production of sugarcane have been projected
using El Guneid parameters (data supplied by El Guneid farmers).
These costs are inclusive of irrigation, irrigation infrastructure
and systems maintenance, all agriculture inputs, labour, machinery
running and maintenance and spare parts, including 100% mechanical
harvesting, and transportation of cane to the factory.
2. The costs of sugar processing and ethanol production are
projected in-line with Sudan Sugar industry norms. They include
manpower costs22. The costs for sugar processing are based on
assumptions that these cover all maintenance and spare parts for
each of the relevant assets.
COSTS OF PRODUCTION:
i. Sugarcane - US$ 34.8 (SDG 94) per ton ii. Sugar - US$ 100 per
ton of sugar iii. Total cost of producing 1 ton of sugar - US$
431.43 (US$ 331.43 cane + US$ 100) iv. Ethanol US$ 0.23 per
litre
REVENUES: 100% of production will be sold in the local market at
the prevailing prices:
i. Sugar - US$ 600 per ton ii. Electricity - US$ 70 per MWhr
iii. Ethanol - $ 700 per cubic meter
22 Total manpower costs are based on the local labour market and
considered to be inclusive of salaries, wages, and all other
related benefits for all classes of the workforce.
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
FINANCIAL RESULTS Herein below is a summary of all projected
financial results of the project. THE PROJECT CAPITAL COST IS US$
191,609,152. CAPITAL ASSETS The capital cost of the project was
estimated according to the following factors: The international
prices of the factory plant and equipment, and agricultural
machineries The project various requirements The Capital Fixed
Assets of the Project is US$ 170,900,000 Table 12: Total Project
Fixed Assets
DESCRIPTION USD 1 Sugar Factory and Ethanol Plant23 114,600,000
2 Buildings, Construction and Civil Works24 11,500,000 3
Agriculture Machineries 4,500,000 4 Harvesting Machineries
8,400,000 5 Workshop Equipment 7,200,000 6 Waste Water Treatment
Unit 2,000,000 7 Vehicles 700,000 8 Communications, IT Equipment
& Furniture 500,000
9 Irrigation Systems and Network / Canals, Equipments,
Irrigation Pumps, Pumping Stations and Civil Works 20,000,000
10 Pre-Operating Costs 1,500,000
Total Project Fixed Assets 170,900,000 SALES REVENUE Based on
the projected production of sugar, ethanol and the cogeneration
illustrated in Table 19, at the prices illustrated above, the total
annual revenue of the Project, shown in Table 21 was estimated at
US$ 136,281,600 when the project is operating at the full capacity.
ANNUAL OPERATING COST The annual operating cost has been ranked
into the following categories: Cane production cost, Table 19 Sugar
processing and cogeneration25, and ethanol production costs, Table
19 Depreciation and amortization cost, Table 20 A summary of total
annual operating cost is shown in Table 22. 23 Inclusive of
transportation and insurance costs 24 Inclusive of factory
foundation, offices and other buildings 25 Cost of cogeneration is
included within the sugar processing costs
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS are based on data and assumptions derived
as follows: Operations Assumptions
Factory TCD of 10,000 tons
Sugarcane crushing is assumed to be done for a period of 180
days in a year
The factory will operate at 100% capacity (a conservative
projection)
Total cane required is 1,800,000 tons per annum
Cane cultivation period is assumed at 12 months
Yield per feddan is 45 tons
Total area under cane / total annual area of commercial
production is 40,000 feddans
Annual planting programme is 20% (8,000 feddans) -- once crop
cycle is established
Proposed Crop Cycle: Plant Cane, Four Ratoons and Fallow
50% of the cane plantation will be established in Year -1 and
the remaining in Year 1
Plough-out will commence from the first plantations third
ratoon. Thereafter, it is assumed the proper crop cycle is
established
Factory will be commissioned in Year 1 to start operating at 50%
capacity; in the
following year the factory will operate at 100% capacity
Sugar recovery rate is 10.5%
Molasses is 4% and Ethanol from Molasses at rate of 270
-
Ministry of Agriculture: Investment Development Agency
(IDeA)
SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION COSTS: are based on the El Guneid Sugar
Factory out-grower farmers model. Cost of 1 ton of sugar cane at
factory gate is SDG 94 = approx. US$ 34.80
Farmers are paid SDG 94 per ton of sugar cane at the factory
gate less all costs incurred for production: o Farmers own the land
tenure rights; each farmer has 15 feddans of land o Farmers are
deployed as out-growers for cane production o Farmers are financed
in advance for all inputs for optimal cultivation practices for
cane production, including planting material, herbicides,
fertilizers, other inputs and applications including irrigation,
planting and weeding, including associated casual labour costs.
Technology and technical support services provided include land
preparation, 100% mechanical harvesting, transportation from farm
to factory, weighing, etc.
Costs of sugar cane production per feddan are: o Establishment
costs of plant cane are SDG 1,000 per feddan:
includes land preparation, planting material and planting
costs
o Production costs of plant cane and ratoon are SDG 2,000 per
feddan: includes all related costs related to: crop cultivat