Migration, ageing and labour markets: A sub-national perspective Tony Champion Emeritus Professor of Population Geography, Newcastle University Paper presented.

Migration, ageing and labour markets: A sub-national perspective

Tony ChampionEmeritus Professor of Population Geography, Newcastle University

Paper presented at TWRI P&R Conference on ‘Labour Market Perspectives: Challenges, Statistics and Future Possibilities’, at York, 9th October 2015

Introduction: An LMA perspective

• I set this talk in a Labour Market Accounts (LMA) framework, focussing on the labour-supply side (selected components*) and on regional and local scales

• * Key components of change in labour-supply side are:- Natural change in the population especially AGEING- Change in labour-force participation rates by age/sex/etc- Change in commuting patterns- Population change due to INTERNAL MIGRATION- Population change due to INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

• I concentrate on the ones in CAPITALS, as in my paper title• My aim is to illustrate some key dimensions of these by

reference to existing analyses and point to the possibilities for better labour-market intelligence in the future

Ageing – but not just a single story

• It is well-known that the UK population is ageing (‘Mr Average turns 40’, Daily Telegraph, 26 June 2015), but the implications for labour supply are more complicated

• Labour-force ageing results from this general increase in the % of older people (even more so if LF participation rates of older people rise)

• Labour-force ageing has also been rising due to later entry into the labour market (owing to higher HE participation) and more women staying in the LF during family raising

• BUT some forces are driving down average labour-force age:

- the retirement of the 1960s baby-boom generation

- strong immigration since 1997 (mainly in their 20s-30s)

- recovery of births in 1980s and especially in 2000s

Overall ageing, as reflected in alternative elderly dependency ratios for North East England, 2012-2037

North East: Alternative elderly dependency ratios, 2012-2037

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

'wo

rkin

g a

ge

' pe

r 'e

lde

rly

'

20-69 per 70+

15-64 per 65+

20-64 per 65+

Source: calculated from ONS’s 2012-based population projections

Increases in 70+ population share in all regions and decreases for other broad ages (except 50-69 for London)

Projected % point change in share of total population, 2012-2037, for regions of England

-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

North East

Yorks & Humber

North West

West Midlands

East Midlands

East

London

South East

South West

England

0-14 15-29 30-49 50-69 70+


More growth of younger than older working age for England, 2012-2037, with North East seeing big shrinkage of 40-64s

Projected change in size of 5-year age groups, 2012-2037, for North East and England, % for period

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

% c

ha

ng

e f

or

pe

rio

d

North East England


Main cause nationally is ‘retirement’ of 1960s baby-boomers in 2020s, but NE also affected by loss of young adults

Source: ONS births and deaths data

England and Wales: births and deaths 1914-2014

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014

births

deaths

Internal migration

• Traditionally, two primary dimensions of North-to-South and Urban-to-Rural, posing ‘double whammy’ for Urban North, but now less strong - this not just due to the Great Recession

• Clear ‘urban renaissance’ in the 2000s, most pronounced for London (where it began in 1990s), driven by combination of rising births, strong UK immigration and slower urban exodus

• But hardly any let-up in the differential between London (and Bristol) relative to the other Core Cities, especially in terms of the ‘escalator region’ phenomenon

• The regions and their cities lose their more qualified youngsters to London and the SE, where career progress is faster – though a proportion return later in their lives

• Their less qualified seem less likely to move south – due to moving and living costs, welfare support, social ties? Even more now due to competition from immigrant labour?

North-South Drift fluctuates with business cycle, but since 1980s progressively lower average losses from North

Source: ONS data on within-UK migration from NHSCR

Net migration from North to South, UK, year ending June, 1971-2014(South = East Midlands, East of England, London, South East & South West)

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Net gain to South

Net gain to North

The ‘counter-urbanisation’ pattern of internal migration continues, though shrinking markedly in 2004-2009

Source: ONS components of population change data for districts

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14

pe

r cen

t

Small Towns& Rural

Large Towns

Small Cities

Large Cities

Major Cities

Annual rate of net within-UK migration, 2001-02 to 2013-14, UK, by settlement size group

‘Urban renaissance’ is found in both North and South and across all 3 city size groups - from 2001 (London from 1991)

.

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

London Largecities

Smallcities

Mets Largecities

Smallcities

%/y

ea

r

1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011

SOUTH & EAST NORTH & WEST

Source: calculated from ONS population estimates for 56 cities as defined in The State of the English Cities Report

% of White Collar Non-core becoming White Collar Core each decade: London cf 9 Other City Regions cf Rest of E&W

Source: Calculated from ONS Longitudinal Study. Crown copyright.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001

Pro

bab

ilit

y (%

)

London 9 other CRs Rest of E&W

16-24s urbanise, other ages counter-urbanise, with London being a huge gainer of 20-24s (including graduates)

Source: Calculated from 2001 Census

Net within-UK migration, 2000-2001, England, by size of urban area and age group

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

0-15 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+

London 750k to 3m 250k to 750k 100k to 250k 25k to 100k 10k to 25k under 10k

London has the highest net gain rate of Higher Managerial & Professionals, North East the highest net loss rate


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

London SouthEast

East SouthWest

EastMidlands

Wales NorthWest

WestMidlands

Scotland Yorkshire&

Humber

NorthEast

Per 10,000 people aged 16-74

London has highest in/out ratio for Higher Managerial & Professionals, lowest for Low-skill, unlike other cities


In/out ratio for classified MGRPs, by skill level, for the 27 cities grouped by Urban Area population size

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Total 27 cities

London

Next 5 largest

Other 21 cities

in/out ratio

Higher M&P

Lower M&P

Intermediate

Low

International migration

• Now a major component of labour supply change regionally and locally as well as nationally, because of high volume and uneven geography

• Three main periods of strong net immigration (following a history of net emigration): 1950s/60s (labour recruitment), late-1980s (refugees etc), post-1997 and continuing

• Gross immigration is much larger than net: in 2014, net was 318,000, with 323,000 emigrating and 641,000 arriving, of whom 83,000 British citizens = 558,000 non-British entries

• Labour force impact is very direct and immediate, as most immigrants arrive in their 20s and 30s (with work restrictions on only certain categories of arrivals)

• For most immigrant groups, the main destinations are now London and other large cities (cf industrial towns in 1960s) – only A8 after 2004 had wider distribution (e.g. farmworking)

Estimated and assumed total net migration for UK, for year ending mid-1994 to year ending mid-2023

Source: ONS (2013) 2012-based National Population Projections: 5. Migration assumptions, Figure 5-4 (and ONS Quarterly Migration Report August 2015)

* 330k in yr to 3/15

In 2005-06 more A8 ‘arrivals’ in smaller TTWAs than for All foreign, fewer to London (but still 50% more than ‘expected’)

Source: calculated from DWP data on NINO registrations

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

London Other1m+

0.7-1.0m

0.5-0.7m

0.4-0.5m

0.25-0.4m

125-250k

<125k

Lo

cati

on

Qu

oti

ent

A8 All foreign

2011 Census showed that non-UK-born made up 42.5% of London’s economically active residents cf NE’s 5.6%

Source: calculated from 2011 Census

.

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

London

ENGLAND & WALES

South East

East

West Midlands

East Midlands

Yorkshire & Humber

South West

North West

Wales

North East

% all economically active

EU14 A12 Rest of World

Over the decade since 2004 the number of 16-64s in work increased for non-UK-born in all regions cf UK-born

Source: APS data extracted from NOMIS by Alan Townsend

Change in number of 16-64s in employment, 2004/05-2014/15, by born in UK or not (Source: calculated from APS)

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

London SouthEast

East SouthWest

EastMidlands

Scotland NorthernIreland

Yorkshireand TheHumber

NorthWest

WestMidlands

Wales North East

UKborn nonUKborn

Areas arranged in order of total change 2005-2015

Steady growth in non-UK-born share of 16-64s in work, 2005-2015, in all parts of UK (doubled in Scotland)


NonUK-born as % aged 16-64 in employment, 2005, 2008 and 2015

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

London UK SouthEast

East WestMidlands

EastMidlands

SouthWest

Yorkshireand TheHumber

NorthWest

NorthernIreland

Scotland Wales NorthEast

per

ce

nt

2015

2008

2005

Areas arranged in order of 2005 %

Steady growth in non-UK-born share of 16-64s in work, 2005-2014, for 10 cities (City Region definition)


NonUK-born as % aged 16-64 in employment, for years ending March 2005, March 2008 and Sept 2014, for 10 City Regions

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

London Birmingham Bristol Manchester Leeds Nottingham Sheffield Glasgow Liverpool Newcastle

per

cen

t

Sept 2014

March 2008

March 2005

Areas arranged in order of 2014 %

Migration summary: urbanisation pattern for international, counter-urbanisation for internal – big turnover for London

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Eng-land

London Largecities

Smallcities

Largetowns

Smalltowns& rural

Mets Largecities

Smallcities

Largetowns

Smalltowns& rural

%/y

ea

r

Total International Within-UK

SOUTH & EAST NORTH & WESTENGLAND

Source: calculated for 2001-2012 from ONS data for 64 cities as defined in The State of the English Cities Report

Concluding points

• A Labour Market Accounts approach emphasising the demographic (natural change and migration, but not EAR)

• An ageing population, but the traditional working-age span is getting younger now due to retirements and immigration

• Fading of traditional north-south and urban-rural migration, but latter is reviving during economic recovery

• London’s role as national pivot of migration has become more pronounced, though not for less skilled natives

• Replacement of UK-born by non-UK-born labour supply across the UK, with shrinkage of UK-born in most ‘regions’

• Rising birth numbers (partly due to immigration) reinforces this process – post-1997 children now entering LM

• But immigration would need to be higher still to offset the ageing trend because immigrants age too

Migration, ageing and labour markets: A sub-national perspective

Tony Champion

[email protected]

Migration, ageing and labour markets: A sub-national perspective Tony Champion Emeritus Professor of Population Geography, Newcastle University Paper presented.

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