May 2010 cib - flight for the 21st century

John RatcliffeJohn RatcliffeVisiting Professor: University of Salford SOBEVisiting Professor: University of Salford SOBE

Senior Fellow: Henley Business SchoolSenior Fellow: Henley Business School

SalfordSalfordMay 13May 13thth 2010 2010

CIB WORLD CONGRESS 2010

“FLIGHT FOR THE 21st CENTURY:‘ICARUS’ OR ‘THE PHOENIX’ ”

Is this humanity’s last century – or a century

that sets the world on a course towards a

spectacular new future?

“Icarus” or “The Phoenix”

ICARUS

Climate Change Food and Water Safety and Security Population Energy

“If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.” (Irwin Corey)

THE PHOENIX

Urban Promise GM and Gardening GeoEngineering Transformative Technologies Nuclear

“A pessimistic sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimistic sees the opportunity in every difficulty”

(Winston Churchill)

FORESIGHTING

PAST HISTORIC

PRESENT INDICATIVE

FUTURE IMPERFECT

Strategic foresight is having a view of what can be done by organisations today to positively influence the future.

FIVE BIG QUESTIONS

How did it happen? Where are we now? What lies ahead? Can we do anything about it? And, if we don’t?

“It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)

HOW DID IT HAPPEN?

Waves of creative destruction Depletion of the West Macro-economic mismanagement Flawed financial systems Sheer greed

“If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid” (John Maynard Keynes)

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

End of market fundamentalism Loss of trust in institutions Enterprise not speculation Peak oil or peak people? What would Google do?

“Bring your desires down to your present means. Increase them only when your increased means permit.” (Aristotle)

Give the people control and we will use it

Your worst customer is your best friend

Do what you do best – and link to the rest

Join a network. Be a platform. Think distributed

If you’re not searchable you won’t be found

Life is public – so is business

Your customers are your ad agency

Small is the new big. The mass market is dead

Middlemen are doomed. Free is a business model

There is an inverse relationship between control and

trust

Trust the people. Listen. Be honest. Be transparent

Collaborate. Life is live. Answers are instantaneous

Encourage, enable and protect innovation.

Simplify, Simplify

DON’T BE EVIL!

WHAT LIES AHEAD?

Sustainable living in a resource constrained world

From West to East A multi-polar world A new economics From conspicuous to conscious

consumption

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.”

(Confucius, 5th Century BC)

CAN WE DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT?

A new world order Defined by our values Ethical leadership The Great Leap Downward A new mindset

“We have it in our power to begin the world over again” (Thomas Paine)

AND IF WE DON’T?

The ‘perfect storm’ Resource wars Détente with dilemma Protectionism, gangsterism and

lawlessness Humanity’s last century

“I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last.”(Revelation, 22. 13)

THE DOORS OF PERCEPTION

“If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would

appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up,

till he sees all things through narrow chinks of his cavern.” (William Blake “The marriage of Heaven and Hell”)

ENERGY THE KEY

Renewables are the ultimate goal Nuclear buys us the time

Build Fission Fund Fusion Distribute Locally

Research Generation Storage Distribution

“Through the release of atomic energy, our generation has brought into the world the most revolutionary force since prehistoric man's discovery of fire.”

(Albert Einstein)

FORESIGHT THE FRAME

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.”

(Albert Einstein)

How Will We Think? Will We Behave

Differently? What About Real Estate? Who Will Be Involved? What Really Lies Ahead?

PROPOSITUM:FIVE BIG QUESTIONS

A NEW MINDSET

“Hell is a place where nothing connects with nothing” (Dante)

The Disciplined MindThe Disciplined Mind

The Synthesizing MindThe Synthesizing Mind

The Creating MindThe Creating Mind

The Respectful MindThe Respectful Mind

The Ethical MindThe Ethical Mind

NEW LEADERSHIP?

“When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”

“Imagine if capitalism collapsed as it did not allow prices to tell the ecological truth; just as socialism collapsed because it did not allow prices to tell the economic truth”

(John Ratcliffe, 2008)