GIS Asia Link 2 : Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana AHP and Land Zoning AHP and Land Zoning decision decision Muhamad Buce Saleh Tatang Tiryana Department of Forest Management Faculty of Forestry IPB Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana Material Discussion Material Discussion • Basic Decision Theory • Basic Theory of AHP • Case Study on Land use planning in Puncak Bogor Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana Material 1: Basic Decision Theory Basic Decision Theory Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana Decision urgencies Decision urgencies…. • For human’s life: – Facing the problems: • Gap between the real and hopes – Generally the problems are complicated, – The resources always limited for solving the problems, – Then decision should be made – even if we do nothing is a decision Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana Ways of explaining reality Sea Snow Sea Snow Phenomenon Phenomenon Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
15
Embed
Material 1: Basic Decision Theorylbprastdp.staff.ipb.ac.id/files/2010/12/070824_4_buce.pdf · Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
GIS Asia Link 2 :
Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring
Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
AHP and Land Zoning AHP and Land Zoning
decisiondecision
Muhamad Buce SalehTatang Tiryana
Department of Forest ManagementFaculty of Forestry IPB
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Material DiscussionMaterial Discussion
• Basic Decision Theory
• Basic Theory of AHP
• Case Study on Land use planning in Puncak Bogor
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Material 1:
Basic Decision TheoryBasic Decision Theory
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Decision urgenciesDecision urgencies……..
• For human’s life:
– Facing the problems:
• Gap between the real and hopes
– Generally the problems are complicated,
– The resources always limited for solving the
problems,
– Then decision should be made – even if we do nothing is a decision
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Ways of explaining reality
Sea Snow Sea Snow
PhenomenonPhenomenon
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
GIS Asia Link 2 :
Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring
Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
MODEL Limitation
Characters of MODEL:Characters of MODEL:
1.1. GeneralityGenerality
2.2. PrecisionPrecision
3.3. ReliableReliable
In general a model only fulfilled 2 In general a model only fulfilled 2
among 3 characters model aboveamong 3 characters model above
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Decision urgencies …(2)
• Examples:
– How to chose the best school for our children?
– How to chose our vehicles?
– etc?Which one I have to chose …???
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Decision urgencies…(3)
• Decision are not easy, because of:– The problems are really complicated– The limitation of human’s brain– Non-linear utilities:
– Most of the criteria are contradictive or conflicting• For example: we want a good car but cheap …????
– Measurement technique are difficult:• We should combine the data with difference scale• No scale for qualitative factors
Cost of promotion (Rp)
Rating sale
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
How to implement decision?How to implement decision?
• Stages of decision (Herbert Simon, 1960):
IntelligenceIntelligence
DesignDesign
ChoiceChoice
ImplementationImplementation
Are there any problems?
Are there any solution?
Which Alternative solution to chose?
Are the choices effective?
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
A common use in decisionA common use in decision
• Usually decision made by method:BOGSAT (a Bunch of Old Guys/Gals Sitting Around Talking)
Procedural stages:• Collecting the data/information,• Analyzing the data/information,• Discussing• Take a Decision
GIS Asia Link 2 :
Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring
Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
A common use in decision…(2)
• weaknesses of BOGSAT:
– Dominated by only a few people
– Ignore the cognitive limitation:• BOGSAT have to discussed many thing in one time (e.g.
problem, alternatives, goal, criteria, etc),
• Though human brain have a limited capacity (up to 7 items)
– There is a satisfying principles, only concern with the alternatives which proposed – aspiration of the group:
• Limited to find more information for evaluate other alternatives
Sumber: Forman & Selly (2002)
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Decision theories development Decision theories development –– other other
subjects:subjects:
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Foundation of a decisionFoundation of a decision
•• Value System: a belief that used in natural resources Value System: a belief that used in natural resources management with or without consciousness management with or without consciousness
–– EfficiencyEfficiency
–– PrecautionaryPrecautionary
–– EquityEquity
•• Preference: a knowledge, experiences, etcPreference: a knowledge, experiences, etc
–– Time PreferenceTime Preference
–– Risk PreferenceRisk Preference
•• Information: data or information that we haveInformation: data or information that we have
–– Type of data: nominal, ordinal, cardinal, Type of data: nominal, ordinal, cardinal, ratio2ratio2
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Compatibility with/usability of decision principles in DAFs: Compatibility with/usability of decision principles in DAFs: –– weak but not impossible; + possible but not central; * esweak but not impossible; + possible but not central; * essential feature of DAFsential feature of DAF
Level of application: G = Global; I=Inter/SupraLevel of application: G = Global; I=Inter/Supra--national; N=National; R = Regional/Sectoral (Subnational; N=National; R = Regional/Sectoral (Sub--national); L=Local (community); M = Micro (Family, national); L=Local (community); M = Micro (Family,
firm, farm); X = Allfirm, farm); X = All
Typical domain of application: D=Direct intervention; I=IndireTypical domain of application: D=Direct intervention; I=Indirect influence; B=Bothct influence; B=Both
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Oh I have to chose just Karimun …!!!
6. Synthesis Alternative PrioritySynthesis Alternative Priority…(4)
• After all, then:
– Total Priority level is: Karimun > Kijang > BMW
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Material 3:
Case Study: Implementation Case Study: Implementation
on Land use Planning in on Land use Planning in
Puncak Area, BogorPuncak Area, Bogor
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Thank you bu Syar, pa Hadi and pa Lilik …!
PENERAPAN PENERAPAN MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKINGMULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING(MCDM) DAN (MCDM) DAN GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMSYSTEM (GIS) PADA EVALUASI PERUNTUKAN (GIS) PADA EVALUASI PERUNTUKAN LAHAN LAHAN (Studi Kasus: DAS Ciliwung Hulu, Kab. Bogor, Jawa Barat)(Studi Kasus: DAS Ciliwung Hulu, Kab. Bogor, Jawa Barat)
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
#
########
###
## ##############
#########
#######
#
#
#####
###
###
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
# #
#
#
######
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
Ground truth point# GPS track 2002 Sungai C illiwung
Legenda :
N
0 1 2 3 Kilometers
Pulau Jawa
Province Jawa Barat
DAS Ciliwung Hulu, Kabupaten Bogor, Jawa Barat
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Protected Area CriteriaProtected Area Criteria
Source : - Ketentuan teknis kawasan lindung dalam RTRW Bopunjur (Bappeda, 2000) dengan berpedoman pada Keppres No.32 tahun 1990 tentang Pengelolaan Kawasan Lindung dan SK Gubernur Jawa Barat No. 413.21/SK.222-HUK/91
tentang Kriteria Lokasi dan Standar Teknis Penataan Ruang di Kawasan Puncak.
Land suitability for Protected Area
Slope High Land creep area
Elevation Soil River bank Important Catchment
Area
>2000 m>40% Litosol,slope > 15%
100 m both side of river
Regosol, slope> 15%
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Land suitability for Build up and Cultivation Land suitability for Build up and Cultivation AreaArea
Settlement
Rice field>2000
Dry agricultureSlow1500-2000>20
ShrubsFast1000-150016-20
Tea estateMedium700-100010-15
ForestGood300-700<10SettlementSettlement
Rice field
Dry agriculture>25
ShrubsSlow>200016-25Tea estateFast1500-20008-15
ForestMedium-Good1000-1500<8Estate/ plantation
Settlement
Rice field>2000>25Dry agriculture1500-200016-25
ShrubsSlow1000-15009-15
Tea estateFast700-10003-8
ForestMedium-Good300-700< 3Dry land agriculture
Settlement
Rice field>2000>25
Dry agriculture1500-200016-25
ShrubsFast1000-15009-15
Tea estateMedium-Good700-10003-8
Forestslowslow300300--700700< 3< 3Rice field
Land coverDrainageElevation)Slope (%)
CriteriaLand use
GIS Asia Link 2 :
Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring
Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
CULTIVATION AREACULTIVATION AREA
•• Weight and intensity scale: AHPWeight and intensity scale: AHP
Level 3:
Value
Land suitability for rice field
Slope (%)
< 3
3-8
>25
9-15
16-25
Drainage
Slow
Medm-Good
Fast
Elevation (m)
300-700
700-1000
1000-1500
1500-2000
>2000
Penggunaan/pe
nutupan lahan
Forest
Tea estate
Shrubs
Ricef
Dry Agr
Settlement
Level 2:Weight
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Slope (%)
< 3
3-8
>25
9-15
16-25
Drainage
Baik-sedang
Cepat
Terhambat
Elevasi (m)
300-700
700-1000
1000-1500
1500-2000
>2000
Land cover
Hutan
Perkebunan teh
Semak belukar
Sawah
Ladang
Pemukiman
Kesesuaian lahan untuk pertanian lahan kering
Level 3:Nilai
Level 2 :Bobot
DRY LAND AGRICULTURE AREADRY LAND AGRICULTURE AREA
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Slope (%)
16-25
< 8
Drainage
Baik
Sedang-cepat
Terhambat
Elevasi (m)
1000-1500
1500-2000
>2000
Land cover
Hutan
Perkebunan teh
Semak belukar
Sawah
Ladang
Pemukiman
Kesesuaian lahan untuk perkebunan
8-15
>25
Level 3 :Nilai
Level 2 :Bobot
PLANTATION AREAPLANTATION AREA
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Level 3 :Nilai
Level 2 :Bobot
Slope (%)
< 10
>20
10-15
16-20
Drainage
Baik
Cepat
Terhambat
Elevasi (m)
300-700
700-1000
1000-1500
1500-2000
>2000
Land cover
Hutan
Perkebunan teh
Semak belukar
Sawah
Ladang
Pemukiman
Kesesuaian lahan untuk pemukiman
Sedang
SETTLEMENT AREASETTLEMENT AREA
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Example: weight and intensity scale Example: weight and intensity scale for Rice field Areafor Rice field Area
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
<3 % 3-8 % 9-15 % 16-25 % >25 %
Slope
Valu
e
B= 0.217
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
300-700 700-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 >2000
Elevasi (m)
Valu
e
B= 0.149
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Terhambat Sedang-baik Cepat
Drainase
Valu
e
B = 0.461
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hutan Perkebunan
Teh
Semak
belukar
Sawah Ladang Pemukiman
Land cover
Valu
e
B= 0.172
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
� We use sensitivity analysis with 3 different values, such as: p = 1, 2 and (e.g. p>10).
MODEL SINTHESISMODEL SINTHESIS
( )p
I
i
pk
ii
p
ip xxd
/1
1
*
−= ∑
=
β
∞
dp = distance metrics
= weight for criteria based on preference level, where > 0, = ideal point p
p = distance parameter, range from 1 to
iβi
β 1=∑ iβ∗
x∞
Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)Compromise Programming (CP)
GIS Asia Link 2 :
Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring
Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Distance Matrix value calculation for GIS
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Slope
Digital Elevation Model
(DEM)
Aspect
Database SpatialDatabase Spatial
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Drainage Land cover
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Example: for cultivation area modelExample: for cultivation area model
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Cultivation area ModelCultivation area Model
Ric
e fie
ld
Dry la
nd
ag
ricu
lture
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHP
Oleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana
Esta
te
Settle
ment
GIS Asia Link 2 :
Course of Rehabilitation and Monitoring
Degraded Forest in Southeast Asia
Technique Pengambilan Keputusan dengan Metode AHPOleh: M. Buce Saleh & Tatang Tiryana