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Nov 11, 2014
The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapon:
an introductory notes
DR ALI MUHAMMAD Diplomatic Course KOMAHI
universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta
Global security:The Proliferation of Nuclear weapons
It is global security problem, The spread of nuclear weapons
Horizontal proliferation: spread from one country to other countries
Vertical proliferation: increase of nuclear arsenals and destructive capability
.
The first nuclear weapon state: the United States of America, 1945
“Little Boy” – bomb dropped on Hiroshima. 15 kiloton bomb (the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT). est. 150,000 dead
“Fat Man” – 20 kiloton bomb used on Nagasaki.est. 75,000 person dead
Horizontal Proliferation (1): “Original” Nuclear Weapons States
After the USA, other states go nukes
The Soviet Union 1949
U.K. 1952
France 1961
China 1964
Horizontal Proliferation (2)others joined the “Nuclear Club”
India 1974 /1998
Pakistan 1998
North Korea 2006
Israel 1967
Possibly, Iran? 2016 ?
Welcome to the “Nuclear Club”!
Welcome to the Nuclear Club!
.
Vertical Proliferation
Vertical Proliferation
1960s ICBMs with multiple warheads.
Why do state go Nuclear?
CONTEXT: ANARCHICAL WORLD
Perception of threat Prestige & Ambition Isolation Autonomy Domestic Interests
.
How to prevent Nuclear Proliferation? NPT Regime, 1968
Effort to prevent new countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.
NPT only allowed the five existing nuclear weapons states to have nuclear weapons.
Those five states with nuclear weapons agreed:
1. Not to transfer nuclear weapons technology or materials to any non-nuclear weapons state.
2. To “pursue negotiations” towards nuclear disarmament.
How to prevent Nuclear Proliferation?
NPT Regime, 1968: Non-weapons states agreed not to acquire nukes
In return, guaranteed access to Nuclear technology for the
the peaceful production of nuclear power.
How to prevent Nuclear Proliferation?
All countries that sign the NPT must agree to permit inspections by the IAEA.
Job of IAEA is to monitor compliance with the NPT.
IAEA Inspections
“Good boys”Recent Signatories to the NPT regime:
Joined as non-nuclear states when Soviet Union broke up: Belarus Kazakhstan Ukraine
Ended active nuclear weapons programs: Taiwan South Africa Brazil Argentina Algeria Iraq Libya
“Bad Boys”Non-Signatories to the NPT
Only three countries have refused to join the NPT:
IndiaPakistanIsrael
One country withdrew from the NPT in 2003:
North Korea
One member currently considered in violation of treaty:
Iran
Regional Efforts: Non Proliferation Regime
Southeast Asia: Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free-
Zone (SEANWFZ) 1997
Latin America: The Treaty of tlatelolco, 1969
South Pacific: The Rarotongan Treaty 1975
Anti Nuclear Movement
Review
What is Nuclear Proliferation?Why do states go Nuclear?What is NPT? What is the Purpose?
Which Countries Are Permitted To Have Nuclear Weapons?
The Five Existing Nuclear Weapons States Agreed To What?
Non-weapons States Agreed To What? In Return For What?
What Is The IAEA? Four Countries Not Part Of The NPT?
Regional efforts to prevent Proliferation?
THANK YOU
TERIMA KASIH