mashreq Fixed Income Trading Daily Market Update Market Update • • • • • • • Central Bank: Growth in UAE credit demand slowed further in 2Q2015 The Central Bank said that the growth in demand for business credit and personal loans in the UAE slowed further in 2Q2015 as the industry continued to adjust from unusually fast growth in mid-2014. In its quarterly credit sentiment survey, the net balance measure for business lending - the weighted percentage of respondents reporting an increase in demand for loans minus those reporting a fall in demand - dropped to 5.9 from 13.6 in 1Q2015 and 29.6 in 4Q2014. (Reuters) UAE consumer confidence at highest level in MEA According to the latest Nielsen's Consumer Confidence Index Report, consumer confidence in the UAE has declined seven index points in 2Q2015 to a score of 108. Despite the decline from 1Q2015, the consumer confidence level remains the highest level in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). In the UAE, sentiment for the three economic indicators decreased, as future job prospects declined four percentage points to 62%, personal finances sentiment decreased three percentage points to 64%, and immediate spending intentions declined three percentage points to 47%. The UAE’s 41% respondents believe they are in recession, as the sentiment increased two percentage points from 1Q2015. (GulfBase.com) Dubai airport traffic rose 16.7% YoY in June 2015 Dubai International Airport recorded a 16.7% YoY jump in passenger traffic in June 2015, reflecting runway maintenance during the summer of 2014. Traffic rose to 5.91 million passengers from 5.07 million in June 2014. The growth in traffic was mitigated by a drop in the number of passengers during Ramadan. Dubai International Airport was reduced to one runway during May and July 2014 for maintenance, which lasted 80 days. (Reuters) Tsipras heading for a showdown with rebel lawmakers on bailout terms Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will face rebels from within his own party, in a showdown that could put Europe’s most indebted state on course for snap elections. The premier is slated to address a central committee meeting of the Syriza governing party on Thursday morning. The group will decide whether to hold an emergency congress or an internal ballot among members, after about a quarter of the party’s lawmakers refused to back the prime minister’s deal with creditors in two votes this month. Tsipras on Wednesday said he can’t “force” unity, though he called on dissenters to fall into line or give up their seats. A formal split within Syriza would strip Tsipras of his parliamentary majority and could force him to hold snap elections. Two government officials have said a vote could take place as soon as directly after Syriza’s congress. The so-called Left Platform of Syriza, led by former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, accuses Tsipras of violating the mandate voters gave him in January and in a July 5 referendum that saw Greeks oppose further austerity measures. Lafazanis was replaced as energy minister after leading a revolt of Syriza lawmakers against the new agreement for as much as EUR86 billion euros (USD94 billion) attached to belt-tightening conditions. The revolt has forced Tsipras to rely on support of opposition parties for the approval of the policies creditors demanded. (Bloomberg) German unemployment rises unexpectedly German unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month in July, signaling that uncertainty surrounding Greece and the future of the euro may have damped economic activity. Joblessness increased a seasonally-adjusted 9,000 to 2.8 million, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today. Economists had predicted a drop of 5,000. June was revised to show a gain of 1,000. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate remained at 6.4%, the lowest level since German reunification. The labor market’s weakness this month could be a first sign that regional spillovers are affecting Europe’s economic powerhouse. Even so, business confidence rebounded in July after a euro-area deal granted Greece a third bailout, preventing for now a default or potential exit from the currency union. (Bloomberg) Jack Lew expects US government borrowings to stay below debt ceiling until late October US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has said that the US federal government can stay below its legal limit on borrowing until at least late October 2015 and likely do so a little longer than that. In a letter to the Republican Speaker of the House of the Representatives, John Boehner, Lew said the Treasury would continue to refrain from issuing debt related to government worker pension funds in order to buy the government time before it breaches its USD18 trillion debt cap. (Reuters) Thursday, July 30, 2015 Fed says economy improving and braces for a September rate hike The US economy and job market continue to strengthen, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, leaving the door open for a possible interest rate hike when central bank policymakers next meet in September. Following their latest two-day policy meeting, Fed officials said they felt the economy had overcome a first-quarter slowdown and was "expanding moderately" despite a downturn in the energy sector and headwinds from overseas. They nodded in particular to the "solid job gains" seen in recent months. "On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggest that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year," the Fed said in a policy statement that kept rates unchanged. That language and other small changes in the statement mark an upgrade in the central bank's view of labor conditions since its last policy meeting in June, when it said labor slack had "diminished somewhat." US Treasury prices were largely unchanged after the Fed statement. US stocks rose and the dollar was stronger against a basket of currencies. (Reuters) Page 1
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mashreq · 2017-04-04 · UAE consumer confidence at highest level in MEA According to the latest Nielsen's Consumer Confidence Index Report, consumer confidence in the UAE has declined
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mashreqFixed Income Trading
Daily Market Update
Market Update
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Central Bank: Growth in UAE credit demand slowed further in 2Q2015
The Central Bank said that the growth in demand for business credit and personal loans in the UAE slowed further in 2Q2015 as the industry continued to
adjust from unusually fast growth in mid-2014. In its quarterly credit sentiment survey, the net balance measure for business lending - the weighted
percentage of respondents reporting an increase in demand for loans minus those reporting a fall in demand - dropped to 5.9 from 13.6 in 1Q2015 and 29.6
in 4Q2014. (Reuters)
UAE consumer confidence at highest level in MEA
According to the latest Nielsen's Consumer Confidence Index Report, consumer confidence in the UAE has declined seven index points in 2Q2015 to a score
of 108. Despite the decline from 1Q2015, the consumer confidence level remains the highest level in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). In the UAE,
sentiment for the three economic indicators decreased, as future job prospects declined four percentage points to 62%, personal finances sentiment
decreased three percentage points to 64%, and immediate spending intentions declined three percentage points to 47%. The UAE’s 41% respondents
believe they are in recession, as the sentiment increased two percentage points from 1Q2015. (GulfBase.com)
Dubai airport traffic rose 16.7% YoY in June 2015
Dubai International Airport recorded a 16.7% YoY jump in passenger traffic in June 2015, reflecting runway maintenance during the summer of 2014.
Traffic rose to 5.91 million passengers from 5.07 million in June 2014. The growth in traffic was mitigated by a drop in the number of passengers during
Ramadan. Dubai International Airport was reduced to one runway during May and July 2014 for maintenance, which lasted 80 days. (Reuters)
Tsipras heading for a showdown with rebel lawmakers on bailout terms
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will face rebels from within his own party, in a showdown that could put Europe’s most indebted state on course for snap
elections. The premier is slated to address a central committee meeting of the Syriza governing party on Thursday morning. The group will decide whether
to hold an emergency congress or an internal ballot among members, after about a quarter of the party’s lawmakers refused to back the prime minister’s
deal with creditors in two votes this month. Tsipras on Wednesday said he can’t “force” unity, though he called on dissenters to fall into line or give up their
seats. A formal split within Syriza would strip Tsipras of his parliamentary majority and could force him to hold snap elections. Two government officials have
said a vote could take place as soon as directly after Syriza’s congress. The so-called Left Platform of Syriza, led by former energy minister Panagiotis
Lafazanis, accuses Tsipras of violating the mandate voters gave him in January and in a July 5 referendum that saw Greeks oppose further austerity
measures. Lafazanis was replaced as energy minister after leading a revolt of Syriza lawmakers against the new agreement for as much as EUR86 billion
euros (USD94 billion) attached to belt-tightening conditions. The revolt has forced Tsipras to rely on support of opposition parties for the approval of the
policies creditors demanded. (Bloomberg)
German unemployment rises unexpectedly
German unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month in July, signaling that uncertainty surrounding Greece and the future of the euro may have
damped economic activity. Joblessness increased a seasonally-adjusted 9,000 to 2.8 million, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today. Economists
had predicted a drop of 5,000. June was revised to show a gain of 1,000. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate remained at 6.4%, the lowest level since
German reunification. The labor market’s weakness this month could be a first sign that regional spillovers are affecting Europe’s economic powerhouse.
Even so, business confidence rebounded in July after a euro-area deal granted Greece a third bailout, preventing for now a default or potential exit from the
currency union. (Bloomberg)
Jack Lew expects US government borrowings to stay below debt ceiling until late October
US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has said that the US federal government can stay below its legal limit on borrowing until at least late October 2015 and
likely do so a little longer than that. In a letter to the Republican Speaker of the House of the Representatives, John Boehner, Lew said the Treasury would
continue to refrain from issuing debt related to government worker pension funds in order to buy the government time before it breaches its USD18 trillion
debt cap. (Reuters)
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Fed says economy improving and braces for a September rate hike
The US economy and job market continue to strengthen, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, leaving the door open for a possible interest rate hike
when central bank policymakers next meet in September. Following their latest two-day policy meeting, Fed officials said they felt the economy had
overcome a first-quarter slowdown and was "expanding moderately" despite a downturn in the energy sector and headwinds from overseas. They nodded in
particular to the "solid job gains" seen in recent months. "On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggest that underutilization of labor resources has
diminished since early this year," the Fed said in a policy statement that kept rates unchanged. That language and other small changes in the statement
mark an upgrade in the central bank's view of labor conditions since its last policy meeting in June, when it said labor slack had "diminished somewhat." US
Treasury prices were largely unchanged after the Fed statement. US stocks rose and the dollar was stronger against a basket of currencies. (Reuters)
Page 1
mashreqFixed Income Trading
Daily Market Update
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Falcon Holding to boost Bahrain’s aviation push
Mumtalakat CEO Mahmood Al Kooheji said that the sovereign fund is looking for acquisition opportunities in the aviation sector. He also said that Falcon
Holding, a proposed new company consolidating key aviation assets of the Bahrain government, would implement the fund’s plans for the sector that
include enhancing the contribution of aviation to the economy and maximizing the value of assets. The plan is to help the aviation assets operate in an
independent, commercial and efficient manner, and look for new opportunities in the aviation sector, which would add value in the business and ultimately
reflect on Mumtalakat’s portfolio and the economy of Bahrain. (GulfBase.com)
Moody's: Sri Lanka's credit profile supported by robust growth, constrained by weak government finances
In a recently issued report, Moody's Investors Service has said that Sri Lanka's B1 government bond rating is supported by its record of strong growth, but
constrained by high government debt ratios. Since the end of its 27 year long civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka's economy has reaped a peace dividend in the
form of GDP growth averaging around 7.5% annually and strong inflows of both foreign direct and portfolio investment. Although growth has slowed in
recent quarters, Moody's expects average growth to continue to compare favorably to peers over the rating horizon. However, Sri Lanka's sovereign credit
profile faces challenges posed by Sri Lanka's government debt ratios, which, even though they have declined over the last decade, remain higher than the
median for similarly rated peers. Consequently, interest payments consume almost a third of government revenues, and limit the fiscal flexibility to increase
spending on infrastructure or to introduce fiscal measures to offset a slowdown in growth.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Spain’s Q2 GDP grew at the fastest pace in 8 years
Spain’s economy raced ahead in the second quarter, expanding at the fastest pace in eight years. GDP rose 1% from the previous quarter and 3.1% on an
annual basis, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said today in a preliminary report. The quarterly growth matches the median estimate in a
Bloomberg News survey of 14 economists and the Bank of Spain’s estimate. While the report didn’t break down components of GDP, economists see
household consumption and domestic demand as the drivers of the Spanish economy, which has now added eight consecutive quarters of increases. The
economy had expanded 0.9% in the first quarter of the year. (Bloomberg)
ECB says eurozone economies further apart
The European Central Bank (ECB) has said that the eurozone’s founding members are further apart economically than they were initially, a “disappointing”
outcome defying the premise that laggards would slowly catch up in the common currency bloc. Early members failed to recognize that lower borrowing
costs, a key benefit in the currency union, would only provide a temporary boost. If left unchecked, the union would actually lead to many troubles, which
plunged the euro bloc into its debt crisis. The unusually strong commentary from the bank highlights the fragility of the currency union, which is still fighting
an existential crisis after Greece came close to being forced out after years of failed reforms and ballooning debt. (Reuters)
Brazil increases rates by 50 bps
Brazil’s central bank raised its key rate by 50 bps for a sixth straight meeting and signaled that borrowing costs are high enough to slow inflation toward its
target. The bank’s board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, boosted the Selic rate to 14.25% on Wednesday as forecast by 50 of 58 economists surveyed
by Bloomberg. It changed language in the communique for the first time this year, adding that “holding that interest rate level for a sufficiently prolonged
period is necessary for the convergence of inflation toward the target at the end of 2016.” (Bloomberg)
Vedanta and Cairn India shareholders likely to vote for merger this year
Vedanta Ltd., India’s biggest aluminum and copper producer, said a merger plan with subsidiary Cairn India Ltd. may be ready for a vote from shareholders
by the end of this year. “We continue to work with the various regulatory and exchange approval processes,” Tom Albanese, chief executive officer of
Vedanta’s parent Vedanta Resources Plc, said on a conference call Wednesday after announcing first-quarter results. “We continue to expect that we would
be ready for shareholders’ vote by fourth calendar quarter of this year.” Vedanta aims to absorb Cairn India to create a global entity to compete against
resources giants such as BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA. India’s second-most indebted metals company is under pressure to sweeten its all-stock offer as the
drop in its share price erodes valuations, while billionaire owner Anil Agarwal has said he has made the best offer. (Bloomberg)
Noble Group share buybacks exceed almost all recent acquisitions
Noble Group Ltd., the Singapore-listed trader that has been targeted by short-sellers and critics of its accounting, has recently spent more on its own shares
than it has on all but one of its investments in four years. Asia’s largest commodity trader has bought back its own stock at least 11 times since last month
and built up a 2.8% stake from zero. Noble used SGD131 million (USD96 million) on the purchases, which company spokesman Stephen Brown said is a
good way to use excess cash. The only time Noble spent more than that on an asset since 2011 was when it paid USD140 million for a Jamaican alumina
plant in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Noble’s stock has lost about half its value since mid- February, when a group calling itself Iceberg
Research published criticism of the firm’s accounting. The shares slid 16% as of Wednesday’s close since Noble started reporting the buybacks on June 12.
Noble has rejected the criticism and hired PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP this month to review its practices. Standard & Poor’s changed Noble’s outlook last
month to negative from stable. Moody’s Investors Services in May said it will maintain a stable outlook for the company. (Bloomberg)
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mashreqFixed Income Trading
Daily Market Update
Earnings Update
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Rating Update
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Thursday, July 30, 2015
NBAD reports AED2.86 billion first half net profits; expects government deposit outflow easing after AED37 billion 1H2015 exit
National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) reported AED2.86 billion net profit for the first half of 2015, up 1% from the same period last year. For the second
quarter of the year the bank posted AED1.44 billion, up 1 % year-over-year and 2% Q-o-Q. Bank’s assets were up 13% at AED393 billion Y-o-Y at the end
of the second quarter and down 2% Q-o-Q as increases in loans and advances were offset by a reduction in customer deposits. Net loans and advances
were up 20% Y-o-Y at AED218 billion at the close of the second quarter and were up 9% Q-o-Q as the bank used its balance sheet strength to continue to
support clients despite the tighter liquidity environment. Customer deposits were at AED230 billion at the end of the second quarter, down 3% Y-o-Y and
down 8% Q-o-Q. Core customer deposits continued to grow with current and savings account (CASA) deposits growing 11% to AED71 billion and now
representing 31% of total deposits. Bank’s net interest income (NII) including income from Islamic financing was AED1.84 billion in the second quarter, up
5% Y-o-Y. Net interest margin for the first half of the year was 1.98%. Non-performing loans decreased by AED110 million in the second quarter to
AED5.84 billion and the NPL ratio stood at 2.6% of the loan book. Total provisions represented 112% of non-performing loans at the close of the second
quarter. The bank reported strong capital position with a capital adequacy ratio of 16.6% and a Tier-I ratio of 15.4% as of June 30. The bank does not
expect further big outflows of government deposits after AED37 billion left the lender during the 1H2015. (Reuters)
DIB net profit surges 35% in 1H2015
Dubai Islamic Bank’s (DIB) reported a net profit of AED1.8 billion in 1H2015, reflecting an increase of 35% YoY. Total income grew to AED3.63 billion in
1H2015, showing an increase of 21% YoY. Impairment losses declined to AED276 million in 1H2015 as compared to AED355 million in 1H2014. The bank’s
total assets stood at AED146.7 billion, reflecting an increase of 18% as compared to AED123.9 billion at the end of 2014. Customer deposits reached
AED109.2 billion as compared to AED92.3 billion at the end of 2014. DIB CEO Adnan Chilwan said that the bank is targeting 20% loan growth in 2015.
(DFM, GulfBase.com, Reuters)
Qatar's Ooredoo sees Q2 net profit plunge on Iraq, forex
Qatari telecom operator Ooredoo reported a 39% fall in second-quarter profit on Wednesday, its sixth decline in eight quarters as foreign exchange losses
and plunging earnings from war-torn Iraq outweighed a strong domestic performance. The former monopoly, which operates in about 13 territories across
the Middle East, Africa and Asia, made a net profit of QAR501 million (USD137.6 million) in the three months to June 30, it said in a statement. This was
down from 817 million riyals in the year-earlier period. Second-quarter revenue was QAR8 billion. This compares with QAR8.4 billion a year ago. Half-year
profit was QAR1 billion, down from QAR1.7 billion in the corresponding period of 2014. (Reuters)
Fitch Affirms Abu Dhabi's IPIC at 'AA'; Outlook Stable
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Abu Dhabi-based International Petroleum Investment Company PJSC's (IPIC) Long-term local and foreign currency Issuer Default
Ratings (IDR) at 'AA' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. The ratings are aligned with those of IPIC's parent, the Government of the Emirate of
Abu Dhabi (AA/Stable), under Fitch's parent and subsidiary linkage methodology. This reflects the rating agency’s view that sovereign-owned IPIC is of
strategic importance to the government in its role as an investment vehicle for the state, primarily in the domestic and foreign hydrocarbon and
petrochemical sectors. (Bloomberg)
Page 3
mashreqFixed Income Trading
Daily Market Update
Change Change USD EUR AED
bps Spread Day YTD Last 1d Chg Last 1d Chg Last 1d Chg
Egypt 3M T Bills N/A 20-Oct-15 2500 500/25 100 EGP Zero Cpn N/A 96.98 97.45 8.39 B/B2/B+
Egypt 6M T Bills N/A 19-Jan-16 3500 500/25 100 EGP Zero Cpn N/A 94.03 94.92 8.59 B/B2/B+
Egypt 9M T Bills N/A 12-Apr-16 3500 500/25 100 EGP Zero Cpn N/A 91.45 92.68 8.67 B/B2/B+
Egypt 1Y T Bills N/A 12-Jul-16 4000 500/25 100 EGP Zero Cpn N/A 88.80 90.37 8.71 B/B2/B+
French Discount T-Bill FR0121811709 11-Dec-14 0 100/1 100 EUR Zero Cpn N/A 99.50 100.00 0 - /- /NR
French Discount T-Bill FR0122005723 02-Apr-15 0 100/1 100 EUR Zero Cpn N/A 99.50 100.00 -- - /- /NR
German Treasury Bill DE0001119261 10-Dec-14 0 100/1 100 EUR Zero Cpn N/A 99.50 100.00 0 - /- /NR
German Treasury Bill DE0001119212 25-Mar-15 0 100/1 100 EUR Zero Cpn N/A 99.51 100.01 -- - /- /NR
Australia T-Bill AU2CLT051245 05-Dec-14 0 100/5 100 AUD Zero Cpn N/A 99.13 99.63 -- - /- /NR
(C) Denotes a Convertible bond
(S) Denotes a Sukuk
* Offer Yield adjusted for tax
Egypt T Bills
Page 25
Fixed Income Trading
July 30, 2015
Contact:
Mashreq Fixed Income Trading
Mohammad Ahsan / Khizer Usmani / Zeeshan Ali / Khurram Hussain / Yasmeen Rabbani / Shakoor Ahmed / Jean-Francois Bargiarelli
Sali Al Khatib
Telephone: +9714-2128822
For live prices, please visit our Bloomberg page MASH <GO>
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