Oleh Hari Kaskoyo MASALAH DAN PENGELOLAAN RESIKO SEBAGAI KOMPONEN DAN MODEL DALAM SISTEM PERTANIAN BERKELANJUTAN 1
PowerPoint Presentation
Oleh
Hari Kaskoyo
Masalah dan Pengelolaan Resiko sebagai Komponen dan Model dalam sistem Pertanian Berkelanjutan
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outline
Resiko sebagai Faktor Inherent dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
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Resiko sebagai faktor inherent dalam bidang pertanian-kehutanan
Risk, Uncertainty, and Vulnerability
A common definition of risk is likelihood by consequence (Standards Australia 2004).
Risk has been defined as the expected loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period.
Risk is a quantity derived both from the probability that a particular hazard will occur and the magnitude of the consequence of the undesirable effects of that hazard. The term risk is often used informally to mean the probability of a hazard occurring.
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Resiko sebagai faktor inherent dalam bidang pertanian-kehutanan
Uncertainty concerning outcomes that involve some adversity or loss that negatively affects individual well-being is normally associated with the idea of risk.
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Resiko sebagai faktor inherent dalam bidang pertanian-kehutanan
Knight (1921) membedakan resiko (Risk) dg ketidakpastian (Uncertainty).
Risk : implies knowledge of numerical, objective probability.
Uncertainty : implies uncertain and the probabilities are not known.
Perbedaan ini kurang operasional krn probabilities sangat jarang yg dpt diketahui dan ada banyak anggapan ttg probabilities sbg keyakinan yg subjective (Just 2001; Moschini and Hennessy 2001).
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Resiko sebagai faktor inherent dalam bidang pertanian-kehutanan
Hardaker et al (2004) membedakan resiko (Risk) dg ketidakpastian (Uncertainty). Risk as exposure to uncertain unfavourable economic consequences. Uncertainty as imperfect knowledge.
Dlm prakteknya sering keduanya dipakai bergantian.
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Resiko sebagai faktor inherent dalam bidang pertanian-kehutanan
A significant part of the literature on risk management is associated with social protection against poverty, particularly in developing countries (Dercon, 2005 and World Bank, 2000).
In this context the term vulnerability is often used to define the likelihood that a risk will result in a significant decline in well-being, that is, resilience or lack of resilience against a given adversity. Vulnerability does not depend only on the characteristics of the risk, but also on the households asset endowment and availability of insurance mechanisms.
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Newbery and Stiglilt (1981):
Resiko sistematik
Resiko non sistematik.
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
OECD (2000) :
Resiko yg biasa dihadapi dlm seluruh bisnis (situasi keluarga, kesehatan, kecelakaan personal, resiko makroekonomi, etc)
Resiko yg mempengaruhi pertanian dan secara khusus mempengaruhi produksi (kondisi cuaca, hama, penyakit, perubahan teknologi), ekologi (produksi tanaman, perubahan iklim, manajemen sumberdaya alam misalnya air), pasar (variasi harga input dan output, hubungan antara rantai makanan dg kualitas, keselamatan, produk baru, etc), regulatory or institutional risk (kebijakan pertanian, keamanan makanan, dan peraturan lingkungan).
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Huirne et al (2000) and Hardaker et al (2004) :
Resiko Bisnis (production, market, institutional, and personal)
Resiko Finansial (depend on financial method).
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Baquet et al (1997) and Musser and Patrick (2001) :
Resiko Produksi (variations in crop yields and in livestock production due to weather conditions, diseases and pests),
Resiko Pemasaran (the variations in commodity prices and quantities that can be marketed),
Resiko Finansial (the ability to pay bills when due, to have money to continue farming and to avoid bankruptcy),
Resiko legal dan lingkungan (lawsuits initiated by other businesses or individuals and changes in government regulation related to environment and farming practices),
Resiko Sumberdaya Manusia (the possibility that family or employees will not be available to provide labour or management),
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Moschini and Henessy (2001) :
ketidakpastian produksi,
ketidakpastian harga,
ketidakpastian teknologi,
ketidakpastian kebijakan.
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
The World Bank (2000) and Holzmann and Jorgensen (2001) classify risks in six different types:
natural,
health,
social,
economic,
political
environmental.
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
They also cross this typology with an additional dimension of systemic characteristics of different risks:
Micro or idiosyncratic risk that affects the individual,
Meso-risk affecting a whole community, and
Macro or systemic risk affecting a whole region or country.
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
All the risks they mention affect farmers in some way, particularly natural (rainfall, landslides, floods, droughts...), health (animal and plant) and environmental risks.
Furthermore, most of these risks eventually take the form of economic risk that affects the stream of income, consumption and wealth.
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Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
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Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Menggunakan Probabilitas
Classical Probability P(E) = m/N
Kemunginan (P) bahwa suatu kejadian (E) akan terjadi, di mana m adlh frekuensi terjadinya E dan N adlh frekuensi akan terjadinya E
Probabilitas gabungan : P (A+B)
Probabilitas terkondisi : P (A/B)
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Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Hasil tes diagnostik standar dan diagnostik eksperimental terhadap serangan hama pada pohon kopi diketahui sbb:
Probabilitas: yg hasil tesnya + dari seluruh sampel? Yg dinyatakan bebas penyakit? Yg dinyatakan sakit dari mereka yg hasil tesnya +?
Penyakit +Penyakit -TotalHasil tes +7411Hasil tes -38689Total109010019
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Distribusi Probabilitas
Distribusi Binomial
Distribusi Poisson
Distribusi Probabilitas Kontinyu
Distribusi Normal
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Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Pohon keputusan :
Diketahui kemungkinan ada gas sebesar 60%
S1: Tidak ada gas di tanahnyaS2: Ada gas di tanahnyaD1: Menerima tawaran perusahaan energi60660D2: Mengeksplorasi dan mengembangkan sendiri-100200021
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Pohon keputusan :
0,4
S1
S2
S1
0,6
0,4
S2
0,6
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
60
660
-100
2000
1160
420
1160
D2
D1
x
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Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Teori pengambilan keputusan :
Pesimis
Optimis
KesebelasanTim Penilai 1Tim Penilai 2Tim Penilai 3MinimaksJerman707389227227Inggris100181679100Spanyol509819389389KesebelasanTim Penilai 1Tim Penilai 2Tim Penilai 3MinimaksJerman707389227707Inggris100181679679Spanyol50981938981923
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Teori pengambilan keputusan :
Minimaks regreat
Tabel regreat
KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3Jerman707389227Inggris100181679Spanyol509819389KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3Jerman0430452Inggris6076380Spanyol198029024
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Teori pengambilan keputusan :
Huwrich dg alpha 0,7
Rasional/Laplace
KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3VWJerman707389227563Inggris100181679505,3Spanyol509819389690KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3Rata-rataJerman707389227441Inggris100181679320Spanyol509819389572,3325
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Dengan menggunakan regresi:
Model sederhana utk mendeskripsikan perkembangan populasi oleh Burgman et al (1993),
Nt = jml populasi pd waktu t
b = tingkat kelahiran
d = tingkat kematian
r = tingkat pertumbuhan
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Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
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Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Avoidance
Reduction
Assumption/retention
Transfer
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Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Holzmann and Jogersen (2001) :
Prevention strategies to reduce the probability of an adverse event occurring, and focus on income smoothing.
Mitigation strategies to reduce the potential impact of an adverse event, and focus on income smoothing.
Coping strategies to relieve the impact of the risky event once it has occurred, and focus on consumption smoothing.
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Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
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