Market Update Outlook 2019 - fpsbindonesia.net · Global - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika dan global melemah - Perang Dagang akan masih berkelanjutan ... - Lokal Investor semakin besar

Market UpdateOutlook 2019

www.panin-am.co.id

Our Forecast (in November 2018)

2

Indonesia’s Forecast 2018E 2019E

IDR 14,500 14,200

JCI 6,500 7,400

Inflation 3.8% 3.8%

7-DRRR 6%-6.25% 5.5%

GDP growth 5.2% 5.4%

10-YR Gov’t Yield 7.25%-7.5% 6.5% – 7%

Assumptions for 2019 Forecast

Oil Price (Brent) USD 60/barrel

Coal Price USD 100/mt

10-YR US Gov’t Yield 2.8%

Fed Rate 2.5%-2.75%

www.panin-am.co.id

Our Forecast (in November 2018)

3

Indonesia’s Forecast 2019E

IDR 14,200

JCI 7,400

Inflation 3.4 %

7-DRRR 5.5%

GDP growth 5.4%

10-YR Gov’t Yield 6.5% – 7%

Assumptions for 2019 Forecast

Oil Price (Brent) USD 60/barrel

Coal Price USD 100/mt

10-YR US Gov’t Yield 2.8%

Fed Rate 2.5%-2.75%

www.panin-am.co.id 4

Global - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika dan global melemah- Perang Dagang akan masih berkelanjutan+ Suku bunga Fed sudah mencapai puncaknya+ USD cenderung melemah+ Harga Minyak turun di kisaran 50—60 USD+ Harga CPO sudah mulai naik-/+ Harga Batu bara stabil di 100 USD+ Sentimen investor untuk investasi di Emerging Market mulai positif

Domestik+ Resiko Politik semakin menurun menjelang dan sesudah April 2019+ Pendapatan dan konsumsi masyarakat mengalami peningkatan+ Tekanan pada Current Account Deficit melonggar+ Tekanan pada Rupiah melonggar+ Kebijakan pemerintah untuk meningkatkan partisipasi swasta untukmendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi

Outlook Makro Ekonomi


Outlook Pasar Modal Indonesia+/- Capital Flow ke pasar modal Indonesia sudah mulai masuk, namun masih sangat “opportunistic”.- Pencatatan China A shares akan mempengaruhi porsi sahamIndonesia dalam alokasi investasi global.+/- Valuasi harga saham Indonesia dibandingkan dengan regional emerging market “fair”- Pasar saham Cina dan regional lainnya sudah mengalami koreksi

signifikan.+ Sejak Mei 2017 s/d Oktober 2018 terjadi Outflow signifikan daripasar saham Indonesia, sehingga Indonesia relatif “underowned”+ Laba perusahaan mulai mengalami peningkatan+ Peran investor domestik semakin besar


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Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Coal, Oil, and Crude Palm Oil Price (Dec 2008=100) and Net Export Value (USD million)

Net Export in USD Million - RHS Coal Newcastle - LHS Oil-Brent - LHS CIF Current Month - LHS

Trade balance is significantly driven by commodity price (Oil, Coal and CPO)


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Pe

rce

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%)

Global Index Return(2016=0)

Brazil

Indonesia

U.K.

Japan

China

Turkey

Argentine

South Korea

US (DJIA)

Australia

India

South Africa

JCI is among the best performer in global stock market since 2016


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Global Index Return(2016=0) in USD

Brazil

U.S (DJIA)

AustraliaSouth Korea

Indonesia

Japan

U.K

China

Turkey

Argentine

South Africa

India

JCI is among the best performer in global stock market since 2016,… even in USD term

www.panin-am.co.id

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46,00

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r-1

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g-1

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v-1

7

De

c-1

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Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

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v-1

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Jan

-19

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

%)

Regional Index Return(2017=0)

Thailand

Philippines

Singapore

India

South Korea

Malaysia

China

Indonesia

Japan

9

Source: Bloomberg, Panin AM

JCI is also among the best performer in regional stock market since 2017


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Feb

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r-1

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EM Capital Flow to Equity as % of Market Cap

India

South Africa

Indonesia

Philippines

Malaysia

Brazil

JapanTurkey

Thailand

South Korea

While…. Foreign had sold Indonesia stocks since May 2017 until Oct 2018


Source: Bloomberg, Panin AM

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31

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Be

st P

/E R

atio

12M Fwd P/E (Best P/E Ratio)

India

JapanU.S.

Indonesia

Thailand

Germany

China

Brazil

South Korea

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesian stocks’ valuation is relatively “fair” compare to it’s peer


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r-1

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r-1

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r-1

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r-1

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IDR

USD

Mill

ion

sIndonesia Net Flow to Equity v IDX 30 Index

Net Flow to Equity (in USD Millions) - LHS IDX30 Index (in IDR) - RHS

Since 2017, Indonesian index is less correlated to foreign capital flow


2013-2016

Dow Jones

Malaysia (FTSE Malay) 0.396

Hongkong (Hang-seng) 0.486

Singapore (STI) 0.546

Thailand (SET) 0.402

Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.528

Indonesia JCI Index 0.335

Indonesia IDX 30 0.318

2017

Dow Jones






Indonesia JCI Index -0.059

Indonesia IDX 30 -0.063

2018

Dow Jones






Indonesia JCI Index 0.243

Indonesia IDX 30 0.192

Since 2017, Indonesian index is less correlated to foreign capital flow …..


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Indonesia Net Foreign Flow, M1 and Mutual Funds Flow (12 Months Trailing)

Indonesia Money Supply (M1) YoY Changes (RHS)

Indonesia Net Foreign Flow 12 months Rolling Sum (LHS)

Net Mutual Fund Flow (RHS)

…Why?.. Because domestic investors are increasing their role.


Source: Bank Indonesia, PAM

- Foreign Inflow akan masuk di pasar saham pada awal tahun2019, tapi aliran dana akan sangat oportunistis. Sebaliknyaforeign inflow pada pasar obligasi lebih stabil seperti ditahuntahun sebelumnya.

- Lokal Investor semakin besar perannya di pasar modal- Laba Perusahaan di Indonesia dalam siklus pertumbuhan,

seiring dengan: membaiknya pendapatan dan konsumsimasyarakat, menurunnya resiko politik, meningkatnyakestabilan finansial dan kebijakan pemerintah yang lebihmelibatkan sektor swasta.

House View


Source: Bank Indonesia, PAM

Setiap reksadana memiliki stategy yang berbeda dalam mengantisipasi“house view”.Maksima: Full invest, less timing, leveraged and conviction in high potential upside in md/small cap.Ultima: Neutral on foreign flow, high conviction in stock picking.Prima: Riding on ST foreign inflow and dynamic in sector allocationTeladan: Multi strategy, riding on ST flow, take opportunity on earnings surprise and short term contrarian.

Market Update Outlook 2019 - fpsbindonesia.net · Global - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika dan global melemah - Perang Dagang akan masih berkelanjutan ... - Lokal Investor semakin besar

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