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Market Outlook 290512

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Dealers Diary

    The domestic markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias tracing positive

    trades across most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty amid speculation that

    China will do more to boost its economy.

    Globally, US markets remained closed on Monday due to Memorial Day holiday.

    While, most of the European markets edged higher on Monday, but ended the day

    mixed, as investor sentiment were affected on opinion polls showing a lead for

    Greece's pro-bailout conservatives and reports that Europe is preparing a new

    rescue fund to seize control of struggling banks across the continent.

    Meanwhile, Indian benchmark indices rallied on Monday, as the government's

    refusal to roll back the petrol price hike despite continued protests and the

    strengthening of rupee for a third day in a row triggered hectic short covering

    ahead of the near-month futures and options contracts expiry.

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 16,377 / 4,971 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 16,480 16,543 / 5,010 5,034 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    16,210 / 4,971 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    16,314 16,210 / 4,946 4,907 levels.

    SENSEX 16,210 16,314 16,377 16,480 16,543

    NIFTY 4,907 4,946 4,971 5,010 5,034

    News Analysis Delhi Government slashes Petrol Prices by`1.26/ltr 4QFY2012 Result Reviews Coal India, NMDC, Bharat Forge, Britannia,

    Amara Raja Batteries, Bajaj Electricals, Sadbhav Engineering, ElectrosteelCastings, Indoco Remedies

    4QFY2012 Result Previews ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, SAIL, IPCALabs, Aurobindo Pharma, NCC

    Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (May 25, 2012)

    FII 1,192 1,556 (364) (1340) 42,121

    MFs 397 235 162 352 (5749)

    FII Derivatives (May 28, 2012)

    Index Futures 3,357 3,260 96 13,817

    Stock Futures 5,512 5,216 296 23,376

    Gainers / Losers

    Neyveli Lignite 77 8.4 Pidilite Inds 165 (3.2)

    Piramal Health 447 6.9 Gail India 328 (2.6)

    Jubl Food 1,316 6.1 BPCL 717 (1.9)Gujarat Mnrl 173 5.8 NMDC 168 (1.8)

    Voltas 107 5.0 Alstom Projects 356 (1.8)

    BSE Sensex 1.2 199.0 16,417

    Nifty 1.3 65.3 4,986

    MID CAP 1.2 71.3 5,972

    SMALL CAP 0.9 55.1 6,373

    BSE HC 0.6 37.3 6,677

    BSE PSU 1.0 69.9 6,799

    BANKEX 2.4 263.7 11,163

    AUTO 1.7 161.0 9,400

    METAL 1.0 99.2 10,188

    OIL & GAS 0.2 14.8 7,592

    BSE IT 0.7 36.4 5,559

    Dow Jones (0.6) (74.9) 12,455NASDAQ (0.1) (1.9) 2,838

    FTSE 0.1 4.8 5,356

    Nikkei 0.2 12.8 8,593

    Hang Seng 0.5 87.6 18,801

    Straits Times 0.5 14.5 2,787

    Shanghai Com 1.2 27.8 2,361

    INFY (1.7) (0.7) $42.5

    WIT 0.6 0.1 $8.7IBN (0.2) (0.1) $29.3

    HDB (0.6) (0.2) $28.6

    Advances 1,689 953

    Declines 1,050 478

    Unchanged 115 76

    BSE 1,595

    NSE 7,387

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Delhi government slashes petrol prices by`1.26/liter

    Petrol price in Delhi will be cheaper by at least `1.26 a liter, as the Delhigovernment today proposed to cut 20% Value Added Tax (VAT) on petrol prices in

    the capital to ease the burden on common man. The move was announced today

    by Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit while presenting the budget. She said that VAT willnot be imposed on `7.50, which is the amount by which petrol prices were hiked

    last week. Delhi is the third state to reduce taxes on petrol prices. Earlier, other

    states like Kerala and Uttarakhand had also reduced tax on petrol to ease the

    burden on consumers.

    Result Reviews

    Coal India (CMP- `315, TP: Under Review)

    Coal Indias 4QFY2012 sales were above our expectations. Coal Indias

    4QFY2012 net sales increased by 29.4% yoy to `19,419cr (above our estimate of

    `17,672cr) primarily due to increased average realization. The companys EBITDA

    decreased by 19% yoy to `4,353cr, representing EBITDA margin of 22.4%. Other

    income grew by 57.2% yoy to `2,328cr. The company reported exceptional loss of

    `45.8cr in 4QFY2012 compared to loss of `16.2cr in 4QFY2011. Adjusted net

    income declined by 4.2% yoy to `4,059cr (above our estimate of `3,650cr).

    FY13E 50,234 28.0 10,867 17.2 36.7 17.9 5.8 10.6 3.0

    FY14E 60,669 28.8 14,746 23.3 37.9 13.2 4.4 8.0 2.3

    NMDC (CMP-`167, TP: Under Review)

    NMDCs net sales declined by 31.2% yoy to `2,593cr (in-line our estimate of

    `2,524cr) mainly due to lower iron ore realization as well as sales volume. EBITDA

    declined by 28.2% yoy to `1,977cr, but EBITDA margin expanded by 463bp yoy to

    76.24%. Other income grew by 23.8% yoy to `546cr. Consequently, thecompanys net profit declined by 21.7% yoy to `1,642cr (above with our estimate

    of `1,528cr) in 4QFY2012.

    FY13E 11,959 78.2 7,553 19.1 27.2 8.7 2.1 4.3 3.4

    FY14E 13,062 78.6 8,287 20.9 24.5 8.9 1.8 3.7 2.9

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Bharat Forge (CMP: `319, TP: Under Review)

    Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported an in-line 18.9% yoy jump in standalone revenue to

    `977cr, driven by a 27.7% yoy jump in exports revenue. While volume in tonnage

    terms increased by 11.7% yoy to 57,248MT on strong export demand, average net

    realization grew by 7.51% yoy, led by improved product mix. Strong growth in the

    CV segment and non auto segment in Europe and U.S. benefitted the companys

    exports performance. On the operating front, margin improved by 147bp yoy to

    25.7% owing to better product mix and a decline in raw-material expenses and

    other expenses. Reported net profit declined by 45.1% yoy to `55cr, mainly on

    account of exceptional item of `70cr towards diminution in the carrying costs of

    investments in Bharat Forge America, adjusted for that net profit would have

    grown by 24.6% yoy to `125cr.

    FY13E 7,395 16.3 520 22.3 21.0 14.3 2.8 6.8 1.1

    FY14E 8,246 16.5 619 26.6 21.0 12.0 2.3 5.7 0.9

    Britannia (CMP: `538, TP: `650, Upside: 20.8%)

    For 4QFY2012, Britannia posted a decent growth in its net sales, of 16.8% yoy to

    `1,310cr aided by price hikes and superior product mix. However, OPMs were

    down by 29bp yoy to 6.14%, on account of higher Advertising and Sales

    Promotion (A&P) and other expenses. A&P and Other expenses went by 95bp yoy

    and 165bp yoy and stood at 8.4% and 12.5% of the sales respectively. Bottom-line

    rose by 22.6% yoy to `53cr, aided by higher other income.

    FY13E 5,835 6.9 267 22.3 45.2 24.1 9.8 15.7 1.1

    FY14E 6,773 7.0 338 28.3 44.1 19.0 7.3 13.3 0.9

    Amara Raja Batteries (CMP: `308, TP: Under Review)

    Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) posted impressive 33.6% yoy growth in its top line to

    `671cr. Top-line growth was led by strong double-digit volume growth in the

    industrial (telecom and UPS) and automotive (replacement) battery segments and

    higher realization. Operating margin witnessed a 29bp yoy contraction to 14.2%

    mainly due to a 125bp yoy expansion in other expenditure despite a yoy decline

    witnessed in raw-material cost as a percentage of sales due to lower lead prices.

    Led by strong operating performance and a significant increase in other income,

    reported net profit registered substantial 41.8% yoy growth to `58cr.

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    FY13E 2,691 15.6 251 29.4 26.5 10.5 2.5 6.0 0.9

    FY14E 3,032 15.5 280 32.8 23.6 9.4 2.0 5.1 0.8

    Bajaj Electricals (CMP: `215 / TP: `245 / Upside: 14%)

    Bajaj Electricals (BEL) posted modest top-line growth of 8.2% yoy to `1,060cr

    (`980cr) in 4QFY2012. The lighting segment witnessed 23.1% yoy growth in

    revenue to `250cr (`201cr) and the consumer durable segment managed 10.4%

    yoy growth in revenue to `444cr (`402cr). The engineering and projects (E&P)

    segment, however, witnessed a decline of 2.2% yoy in revenue to `368cr (`376cr).

    The companys operating profit declined by 15.3% yoy to `86cr (`102cr), largely

    due to margin compression. OPM fell by 225bp to 8.1% (10.4%), mainly because

    of higher-than-expected other expenditure. The lighting segment witnessed a

    140bp yoy increase in EBIT margin, while the consumer durable segment

    witnessed a 199bp yoy contraction in EBIT margin. The E&P segment reported EBIT

    of `21cr, down 48.2% yoy, while its margin declined by 497bp yoy to 5.6%

    (10.6%), consequently bringing down the margin for the whole company. The

    companys PAT for the quarter came in at `49cr (`57cr), down 14.7% yoy.

    FY2013E 3,670 8.5 183 18.3 23.9 11.7 2.6 7.0 0.6

    FY2014E 4,384 8.5 221 22.3 24.3 9.6 2.1 5.9 0.5

    Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: `125 / TP: `199 / Upside: 59%)

    For 4QFY2012, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) reported a mixed set of numbers, with

    revenue coming marginally higher than our estimates while earnings came in

    lower than our expectations. On the top-line front, SEL reported a 13.6% yoy

    decline to `905cr, marginally higher than our estimate of `856cr. It should be

    noted that the decline was on account of high base in 4QFY2011. On a sequentialbasis, revenue grew by 24.8%. On the margin front, the company posted

    EBITDAM of 9.5%, tad lower than our estimate of 10.0%. Interest cost stood at

    `15cr, registering a decline of 10.4% yoy/5.6% qoq and higher than our estimate

    of `12cr. On the earnings front, SEL reported a 13.0% yoy decline to `47cr, lower

    than our expectation of `53cr. We were expecting higher earnings on the back of

    bonus income (`8cr-10cr) as per the companys guidance. SELs order book

    stands at `7,554cr (2.8x FY2012 revenue), which provides good revenue visibility.

    FY2013E 2,989 10.6 153 10.2 17.9 12.3 2.0 7.7 0.8

    FY2014E 3,314 10.6 170 11.3 16.4 11.1 1.7 7.2 0.8

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Electrosteel Castings (CMP: `19, TP: Under Review)

    Electrosteel Castings 4QFY2012 net sales declined by 0.7% yoy to `503cr. The

    companys EBITDA declined by 93.6% yoy to `5cr. Consequently, net profit

    decreased by 84.7% yoy to `6cr.

    FY2013E 1,984 16.2 180 5.2 10.7 3.5 0.3 0.9

    FY2014E 2,074 8.5 64 1.9 3.7 9.9 0.3 0.9

    Indoco Remedies (CMP - `58, TP - `81: Upside: 40%)

    Indoco Remedies sales and net profit came in below our expectations. For the

    quarter, the company posted sales of `147cr, growth of 22.4% yoy. Growth in the

    domestic and exports segments stood at 14.1% and 36.9% yoy, respectively, which

    aided the companys overall growth. On the operating front, gross and operating

    margin came in at 56.0% and 14.5%, respectively. OPM came in below our

    expectation of 14.1%. This along with higher interest cost along with deprecation

    cost during the quarter aided the net profit to come at `12.3cr, in comparison to

    `16cr estimated for the quarter.

    `

    FY2013E 685 15.2 68 7.4 16.9 8.0 0.2 6.2 0.9

    FY2014E 837 15.2 82 8.9 16.9 6.7 0.1 5.8 0.9

    Result Previews

    ONGC is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top

    line to decrease by 5.6% yoy to `14,530cr on account of higher subsidy. The

    companys EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 699bp yoy to 48.6%. The

    bottom line is expected to decrease by 5.0% yoy to `2,652cr.

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Tata Motors (TTMT) is set to declare its 4QFY2012 results. On a consolidated

    basis, we expect the companys top line to grow by robust ~41% yoy to

    `50,188cr, driven by impressive 48% yoy growth in JLR volumes. The companys

    EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 170bp yoy to 14.2%, led by stablecommodity prices, improved operating leverage and favorable currency

    movement. As a result, the bottom line is expected to grow sharply by ~48% yoy to

    `3,645cr.

    For the quarter, Sun Pharma is likely to register 19% yoy sales growth mainly on

    the back of integration of Taro, which will drive its export formulation sales during

    the period. Along with strong top-line growth on account of the integration, the

    company's OPM is expected to expand by 1,080bp yoy, with margin likely to be

    around 41.1%. The company's net profit for the quarter is expected to register

    75.0% yoy growth.

    SAIL is expected to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top

    line to grow by 2.0% yoy to `12,183cr mainly on account of higher realization.

    However, EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 295bp yoy to 14.0%on account of higher input costs. The bottom line is expected to decline by 16.2%

    yoy to `1,263cr.

    We estimate Ipca Labs top line to grow by 42.0% yoy to `673cr for 4QFY2012.

    The company's OPM is expected to expand by 170bp yoy to 20.7%. However,

    adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 5.3% yoy.

    For the quarter, Aurobindo Pharma is expected to post a decline of 4.0% yoy in its

    net sales. Consequently, the company's margin is likely to dip to 13.9%, which will

    lead to a dip of 63% yoy in its net profit to `47cr

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    We expect subdued performance from Nagarjuna Construction (NCC) for this

    quarter. On the top-line front, NCC is expected to post a decline of 1.5% to

    `1,429cr. EBITDA margin is expected to witness a dip of 160bp yoy to 7.4% for

    the quarter. However, the blow is expected on the earnings front, as we expect the

    company to post a decline of 72.6% on a yoy basis to `9.8cr for the quarter. This

    would be primarily on account of muted revenue and EBITDAM and burgeoning

    interest cost (yoy jump of 23.1%), led by elongated working capital cycle.

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Net sales 2,024 1,962 3 1,999 1

    EBITDA 510 (373) (237) 469 9

    EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 -19.0 23.5

    Net profit (79) (936) -) (192) -

    Net sales 50,468 39,667 27 47,917 5

    EBITDA 4,974 2,201 126 3,703 34

    EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 5.5 7.7

    Net profit 4,355 1,123 288 2,725 60

    Net sales 16,911 15,396 10 18,124 (7)

    EBITDA 9,312 7,972 17 11,051 (16)

    EBITDA margin (%) 55.1 51.8 61.0

    Net profit 4,058 2,791 45 6,741 (40)

    Net profit 842 751 12 809 4

    Net sales 12,769 11,945 7 10,594 21

    EBITDA 2,079 2,340 (11) 1,581 31

    EBITDA margin (%) 16.3 19.6 14.9

    Net profit 1,269 1,507 (16) 632 101

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Net sales 2,062 1,463 41 2,145 (4)

    EBITDA 828 510 62 964 (14)

    EBITDA margin (%) 40.2 34.9 44.9

    Net profit 661 443 49 565 17

    Net sales 49,815 36,452 37 45,199 10

    EBITDA 7,390 4,675 58 6,827 8

    EBITDA margin (%) 14.8 12.8 15.1

    Net profit 3,865 2,638 47 3,427 13

    Net sales 1,850 1,597 16 1,954 (5)

    EBITDA 230 233 (1) 200 15

    EBITDA margin (%) 12.4 14.6 10.2

    Net profit 59 77 (23) 47 26

    Net sales 696 582 20 670 4

    EBITDA 155 144 8 149 4

    EBITDA margin (%) 22.3 24.7 22.2

    Net profit 125 114 10 116 8

    Net sales 2,338 2,683 (13) 2,034 15

    EBITDA 1,013 666 52 823 23

    EBITDA margin (%) 43.3 24.8 40.5

    Net profit 275 313 (12) 247 11

    Net sales 10,504 8,894 18 11,260 (7)

    EBITDA 1,389 1,288 8 1,795 (23)

    EBITDA margin (%) 13.2 14.5 15.9

    Net profit 832 783 6 1,091 (24)

    Net sales 503 524 (4) 90 459

    EBITDA 223 256 (13) 51 337EBITDA margin (%) 44.3 48.9 56.7

    Net profit 155 197 (21) 24 546

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    Market OutlookMay 29, 2012

    Net sales 4,113 3,905 5 3,258 26

    EBITDA 918 851 8 816 13

    EBITDA margin (%) 22.3 21.8 25.0

    Net profit 228 302 (25) 205 11

    Net sales 8,163 6,682 22 8,327 (2)

    EBITDA 932 862 8 1,021 (9)

    EBITDA margin (%) 11.4 12.9 12.3

    Net profit 614 607 1 662 (7)

    Net sales 3,369 2,623 28 3,794 (11)

    EBITDA 549 486 13 556 (1)

    EBITDA margin (%) 16.3 18.5 14.7

    Net profit 204 198 3 254 (20)

    Economic and Political News

    Subbarao indicates more interventions over ` slide No plan to raise prices of diesel, LPG or kerosene: Government Assocham asks government to reduce taxes on petrol, dieselCorporate News

    RBI eases banks' term deposit foreclosure restrictions Exposure limits of banks in gold loan NBFCs cut EGoM meet on June 5 for fixing spectrum base price OIL in talks to buy 51% stake in Reliance Gas Transportation Tata Motors signs distribution agreement in Myanmar Jindal Steel buys 10% stake in Gujarat NRE's Aussie subsidiarySource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    May 29, 2012ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, United Spirits, HPCL, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma,Ipca labs, Nagarjuna Const., Prakash Industries, PVR

    May 30, 2012GAIL, M&M, DLF, Jaiprakash Asso., Colgate, Tata Chemicals, HDIL, Page Industries, BGR Energy , PTC India, AnantRaj, GIPCL, Simplex Infra, SpiceJet, Greenply

    May 31, 2012 -

    June 01, 2012 Mphasis

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    May 29, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

    1985=100Apr-12 69.20 69.50

    May 30, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

    Value May-12 (19.30) (19.30)

    May 31, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands 19-May-12 370.00 370.00

    Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Apr-12 19.00 (6.50)

    US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change Mar-12 2.20 1.90

    India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change Dec-11 6.10 6.00

    June 01, 2012 Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May-12 45.00 45.00

    US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Apr-12 115.00 150.00

    US Unnemployment rate % Apr-12 8.10 8.10

    China PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 53.30 51.90

    India Imports YoY% % Change Mar-12 24.28 --

    India Exports YoY% % Change Mar-12 (5.71) --

    UK PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 50.50 49.70

    June 05, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value May-12 52.20 --

    June 06, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change Mar-12 -- --

    Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % May-12 1.00 --

    June 07, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May-12 0.50 0.50

    June 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr-12 9.30 --

    China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Apr-12 3.40 --

    June 10, 2012 China Exports YoY% % Change Apr-12 4.90 --

    June 12, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Mar-12 (3.50) --

    UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar-12 (2.60) --

    June 13, 2012 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Apr-12 (0.20) --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    www.angelbroking.com

    May 29, 2012

    Market Outlook

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    Market StrategyMay 29, 2012

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

    5.8 5.9

    7.5

    9.8

    7.4

    9.4

    8.5

    7.6

    8.3

    7.8 7.7

    6.9

    6.1

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    (%)

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    5.36.2

    9.5

    3.7 3.42.5

    (5.0)

    6.0

    2.7

    1.1

    4.1

    (3.5)(6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    (%)

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

    9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

    7.76.9

    7.46.9 7.2

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    (%)

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

    (15)

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates8.00

    7.00

    4.75

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 290512

    12/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 129 - 2,508 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 18.4 16.1 3.9 3.3 22.8 22.3 1.8 1.5

    United Phosphorus Buy 117 183 5,372 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 6.8 6.4 1.1 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 308 345 2,634 2,691 3,032 15.6 15.5 29.4 32.8 10.5 9.4 2.5 2.0 26.5 23.6 0.9 0.8

    Apollo Tyres Accumulate 89 100 4,476 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 7.3 6.7 1.3 1.1 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,585 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.2 8.3 2.0 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle Accumulate 459 514 693 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 9.1 8.0 2.3 1.9 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,513 1,835 43,773 22,118 24,889 19.0 18.6 115.7 126.5 13.1 12.0 5.2 4.2 45.0 38.9 1.6 1.3

    Bharat Forge Buy 319 372 7,417 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 14.3 12.0 2.8 2.3 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

    Bosch India Accumulate 8,819 9,429 27,691 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 21.0 18.7 4.9 4.1 23.3 21.8 2.7 2.3

    CEAT Buy 95 164 325 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

    Exide Industries Buy 126 146 10,676 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 17.7 14.0 3.1 2.7 18.6 20.3 1.5 1.2

    FAG Bearings Neutral 1,596 - 2,651 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 13.5 12.0 2.9 2.4 24.0 21.9 1.5 1.2

    Hero Motocorp Buy 1,849 2,280 36,929 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 13.2 12.5 6.2 4.8 54.8 43.3 1.1 0.9

    JK Tyre Buy 75 113 310 8,058 9,025 5.4 5.5 24.8 32.2 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 13.2 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 654 793 40,169 34,740 39,263 10.7 11.0 44.9 51.7 14.6 12.7 2.6 2.3 18.9 19.1 0.8 0.7

    Maruti Buy 1,104 1,510 31,887 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 12.7 11.0 1.8 1.6 15.3 15.5 0.5 0.5

    Motherson Sumi Buy 163 216 6,324 11,167 12,516 9.5 10.0 11.3 14.4 14.4 11.4 3.1 2.6 23.3 24.7 0.7 0.6

    Subros Neutral 32 - 191 1,225 1,393 8.5 8.2 4.2 5.0 7.6 6.4 0.8 0.7 10.3 11.8 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Accumulate 277 312 73,717 191,183 210,301 12.8 12.8 39.4 43.6 7.0 6.3 2.5 1.9 40.4 34.3 0.5 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 36 55 1,687 7,982 8,816 6.4 6.3 5.0 5.6 7.1 6.4 1.3 1.1 18.9 18.2 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 751 498 15,924 8,760 10,023 6.4 6.4 18.2 20.7 41.2 36.2 5.6 5.0 14.4 14.6 1.8 1.6BGR Energy Reduce 300 274 2,166 4,170 5,396 11.5 10.4 27.2 30.4 11.0 9.9 1.8 1.6 17.3 17.4 1.1 1.0

    BHEL Neutral 217 - 53,137 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.2 9.0 1.8 1.6 21.3 18.9 1.0 1.0

    Blue Star Buy 160 221 1,437 3,250 3,551 5.9 5.9 12.4 15.8 12.9 10.1 2.6 2.2 21.2 23.8 0.5 0.4

    Crompton Greaves Buy 110 164 7,044 12,936 14,101 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.7 10.1 9.4 1.7 1.5 18.4 17.3 0.6 0.5

    Jyoti Structures Buy 40 67 328 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.4 12.7 13.9 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 51 73 1,307 6,686 7,200 7.7 7.9 10.6 12.2 4.8 4.2 0.9 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.3 0.3

    LMW Buy 1,529 2,609 1,722 2,663 3,130 12.8 12.8 185.0 217.4 8.3 7.0 1.6 1.4 21.2 21.7 0.2 0.1

    Thermax Neutral 441 - 5,258 5,514 5,559 8.3 8.0 29.7 28.4 14.9 15.6 2.8 2.5 20.2 16.9 0.8 0.8

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  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 290512

    13/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,163 - 21,830 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 16.5 14.3 2.9 2.6 18.0 19.0 1.7 1.4

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 145 - 22,274 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 14.3 13.7 2.8 2.5 18.5 19.4 1.8 1.5

    India Cements Neutral 77 - 2,367 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 7.8 6.1 0.7 0.6 8.6 10.5 0.8 0.7

    J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 63 79 774 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 14.6 16.1 4.3 3.9 0.6 0.5 13.4 13.6 0.5 0.9

    Madras Cements Neutral 141 - 3,345 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 9.7 8.2 1.4 1.2 15.6 16.0 1.6 1.3

    Shree Cements Neutral 2,576 - 8,975 5,465 6,249 24.3 23.7 151.5 222.1 17.0 11.6 4.1 3.5 21.6 25.8 1.4 1.0

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,390 - 38,103 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 16.9 14.3 2.7 2.3 16.8 17.4 1.8 1.7Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 199 302 1,047 2,014 2,294 22.4 22.4 28.4 30.8 7.0 6.5 0.9 0.8 14.1 13.3 2.3 2.6

    Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 264 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 7.8 5.0 0.4 0.4 5.5 8.1 0.3 0.3

    Hind. Const. Neutral 18 - 1,101 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (10.1) (23.3) 1.0 1.2 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

    IRB Infra Buy 117 166 3,877 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 7.8 6.9 1.2 1.0 16.1 15.8 2.6 2.4

    ITNL Buy 173 265 3,364 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 7.9 6.5 1.1 1.0 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

    IVRCL Infra Buy 43 79 1,157 5,758 6,860 9.2 9.2 4.7 6.0 9.3 7.2 0.5 0.5 6.0 7.3 0.7 0.6

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 62 104 13,237 16,017 18,359 24.4 23.5 4.2 5.0 14.8 12.4 1.3 1.2 8.8 9.7 2.1 1.9

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,203 1,553 73,647 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 17.0 15.7 2.6 2.2 16.1 15.3 1.4 1.2

    Madhucon Proj Buy 43 70 317 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 9.3 9.2 0.5 0.5 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 33 76 834 5,790 7,022 9.2 9.5 3.5 5.4 9.3 6.0 0.3 0.3 3.7 5.6 0.8 0.7

    Patel Engg. Neutral 87 - 608 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.2 6.0 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 48 - 1,581 10,592 12,193 8.4 8.4 2.9 4.6 16.4 10.5 0.5 0.5 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 125 199 1,878 2,989 3,315 10.6 10.6 10.2 11.3 12.3 11.1 2.0 1.7 17.6 16.3 0.8 0.8

    Simplex Infra Buy 215 316 1,064 6,732 7,902 9.3 9.6 27.2 35.1 7.9 6.1 0.8 0.7 11.0 12.6 0.5 0.4

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 140 156 7,018 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.7 3.3 0.6 0.6 18.4 17.6 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 107 - 5,982 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.7 15.8 16.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,028 1,476 42,526 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.8 7.4 1.6 1.4 20.0 20.3 - -

    Bank of Baroda Buy 687 925 26,895 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.4 4.6 0.9 0.8 17.8 18.2 - -

    Bank of India Buy 330 411 18,935 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.8 16.8 16.9 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 49 53 2,913 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.3 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 405 522 17,948 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 4.9 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 76 - 5,561 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.5 3.7 0.8 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -

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  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 290512

    14/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Buy 415 486 6,141 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

    Dena Bank Buy 87 111 3,060 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 3.8 3.4 0.6 0.5 17.7 17.0 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 416 - 7,110 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 8.4 7.2 1.1 1.0 14.1 14.6 - -

    HDFC Neutral 664 - 98,131 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 21.0 17.5 4.2 3.7 34.7 31.9 - -

    HDFC Bank Accumulate 508 567 119,275 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 18.0 14.3 3.5 2.9 20.8 22.1 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 835 1,174 95,919 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 12.3 10.3 1.5 1.4 14.7 16.0 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 89 117 11,397 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.5 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 175 197 7,502 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 4.2 4.0 0.7 0.6 18.2 16.9 - -

    IOB Buy 82 96 6,547 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 915 - 4,437 2,535 2,861 3.5 3.4 176.3 184.4 5.2 5.0 0.9 0.8 19.3 17.6 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Buy 244 286 12,334 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 10.0 8.0 1.9 1.6 20.1 21.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Buy 230 274 6,699 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 749 1,015 25,416 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 4.9 4.3 0.9 0.7 18.3 18.1 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 22 - 2,531 1,399 1,596 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.8 6.4 5.9 1.1 1.0 18.7 17.5 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,100 2,486 140,943 68,925 80,565 3.7 3.7 236.6 282.7 8.9 7.4 1.5 1.3 18.6 19.3 - -

    Syndicate Bank Buy 93 131 5,580 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 3.6 3.1 0.6 0.5 16.9 17.1 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 69 - 4,577 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 4.1 3.9 0.8 0.7 16.5 15.4 - -

    Union Bank Buy 208 276 11,446 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.9 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.0 17.5 - -

    United Bank Buy 59 78 2,132 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.4 15.5 16.5 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 54 - 2,688 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.1 4.4 0.7 0.6 13.3 13.8 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 338 450 11,960 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 10.0 8.1 2.1 1.7 23.1 23.3 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,822 - 36,660 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 30.5 25.8 10.4 8.1 38.0 35.4 3.1 2.7Britannia Buy 538 650 6,425 5,906 6,856 6.9 7.0 22.3 28.3 24.1 19.0 9.8 7.3 45.2 44.1 1.1 0.9

    Colgate Neutral 1,224 - 16,651 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 37.7 42.6 32.5 28.8 38.7 31.2 129.4 120.1 5.4 4.8

    Dabur India Neutral 105 - 18,266 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 25.3 21.3 9.2 7.5 39.3 42.0 3.1 2.7

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,603 - 10,946 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 25.3 21.1 7.8 6.3 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.6

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 566 - 19,249 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 24.8 20.8 6.8 5.5 31.3 38.4 3.4 2.9

    HUL Neutral 418 - 90,243 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 29.6 25.5 22.1 17.3 82.7 76.2 3.4 2.9

    ITC Accumulate 235 252 183,616 28,955 33,595 35.9 35.7 9.2 10.5 25.6 22.4 8.2 6.8 34.8 33.1 6.0 5.2

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  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 290512

    15/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 178 - 11,478 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 26.8 21.9 7.2 5.6 30.0 28.8 2.5 2.1

    Nestle* Neutral 4,546 - 43,831 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 38.1 30.7 23.4 15.9 73.0 61.6 5.1 4.1

    Tata Global Buy 111 136 6,870 7,011 7,712 9.7 10.0 6.0 7.1 18.7 15.6 1.7 1.6 8.9 10.2 0.9 0.8

    IT

    HCL Tech Accumulate 491 560 33,991 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 13.0 11.4 2.9 2.4 22.3 21.3 1.5 1.2

    Hexaware Neutral 126 - 3,739 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 12.9 11.8 3.0 2.6 23.7 22.5 1.8 1.5

    Infosys Buy 2,388 2,792 137,106 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.1 13.7 3.4 2.9 22.5 20.8 3.0 2.5Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 165 177 1,840 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.8 8.9 1.3 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.7 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Neutral 119 - 2,111 2,028 2,239 15.0 14.8 9.0 11.4 13.2 10.4 2.4 2.0 19.3 18.7 1.0 0.9

    Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 76 86 8,973 7,097 7,812 16.2 16.0 7.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 1.3 1.2 13.2 12.3 0.9 0.7

    Mindtree Neutral 618 - 2,509 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 11.5 10.6 2.2 1.8 18.9 17.0 1.0 0.8

    Mphasis Accumulate 380 433 7,985 5,904 6,320 18.3 17.9 38.7 41.2 9.8 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.9 13.7 0.9 0.7

    NIIT Buy 39 52 640 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.5 4.4 0.9 0.8 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

    Persistent Neutral 346 - 1,384 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 9.3 8.6 1.4 1.3 15.4 14.5 0.9 0.8

    TCS Neutral 1,224 - 239,515 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 19.4 17.3 5.9 4.8 30.5 27.7 3.9 3.3

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 667 725 8,508 5,880 6,314 15.6 15.2 75.9 82.2 8.8 8.1 1.8 1.5 20.1 18.1 1.4 1.2

    Wipro Accumulate 399 430 98,083 41,918 46,879 19.4 19.9 25.1 28.7 15.9 13.9 3.0 2.6 18.6 18.3 2.0 1.7

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 197 269 3,611 1,652 1,863 25.7 26.3 13.5 16.1 14.6 12.3 3.3 2.8 24.1 24.4 2.1 1.8

    HT Media Buy 112 148 2,632 2,255 2,555 16.3 16.7 9.0 10.6 12.4 10.6 1.6 1.4 13.4 13.8 0.8 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 86 137 2,712 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 11.2 9.5 3.8 3.4 34.6 37.7 1.8 1.6

    PVR Neutral 158 - 409 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 12.7 10.0 2.0 2.1 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

    Sun TV Network Neutral 248 - 9,756 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 11.9 10.3 2.8 2.3 26.0 25.1 3.5 2.8Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 443 - 9,417 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.2 7.6 1.2 1.0 14.5 7.5 3.2 2.2

    Coal India Accumulate 315 351 198,997 65,654 71,756 26.8 27.3 24.0 26.3 13.1 12.0 3.6 2.9 30.4 27.0 2.1 1.7

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 20 27 680 1,984 2,074 10.6 12.0 2.7 3.3 7.3 6.0 0.4 0.1 5.2 6.2 0.5 0.4

    Hind. Zinc Accumulate 121 139 51,126 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 8.2 7.3 1.6 1.3 21.2 19.9 2.2 1.6

    Hindalco Neutral 115 - 22,008 84,652 88,766 9.6 10.5 17.0 18.9 6.8 6.1 0.6 0.6 9.7 9.8 0.5 0.5

    JSW Steel Accumulate 609 663 13,582 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 8.2 6.9 0.8 0.7 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.7

    MOIL Reduce 272 255 4,572 979 1,061 45.7 46.8 24.5 26.6 11.1 10.2 1.7 1.6 16.1 15.8 2.5 2.2

    Monnet Ispat Buy 416 593 2,673 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 7.0 6.2 1.0 0.9 15.6 15.3 1.6 1.2

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    Nalco Reduce 58 51 14,935 8,276 8,578 12.7 16.4 2.5 3.5 22.9 16.6 1.3 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.4 1.4

    NMDC Accumulate 168 185 66,528 11,726 12,890 77.8 78.4 18.6 20.6 9.0 8.2 2.1 1.8 26.1 23.8 3.5 3.0

    SAIL Accumulate 93 102 38,579 52,461 62,935 18.0 18.8 13.2 14.5 7.1 6.4 0.8 0.8 12.4 12.3 1.1 1.0

    Sesa Goa Accumulate 187 206 16,222 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

    Sterlite Inds Buy 98 123 33,085 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 6.0 5.1 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.3 0.2

    Tata Steel Buy 412 499 39,990 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 7.6 6.2 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

    Oil & GasCairn India Accumulate 328 372 62,565 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.4 6.8 1.1 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.9 2.1

    GAIL Buy 328 392 41,543 50,472 55,503 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.2 8.8 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.0 0.5 0.4

    ONGC Buy 254 319 217,181 148,157 150,563 37.6 39.5 31.0 33.6 8.2 7.6 1.5 1.3 18.8 18.1 1.1 1.0

    Reliance Industries Buy 701 872 229,612 325,734 328,669 10.9 11.7 65.8 70.1 10.7 10.0 1.1 1.0 11.9 11.5 0.7 0.7

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 50 91 948 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 7.6 5.5 1.9 1.4 27.5 29.2 0.8 0.7

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 117 175 3,409 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 8.5 8.0 1.0 0.4 11.4 10.9 1.0 0.9

    Aventis* Neutral 2,081 - 4,793 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 21.9 20.0 3.9 3.0 18.6 17.0 3.0 2.6

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 752 953 15,401 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 17.4 14.8 4.5 3.6 25.4 24.8 2.5 2.0

    Cipla Buy 313 379 25,123 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.0 16.6 2.9 2.6 16.7 16.8 3.2 2.8

    Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,697 - 28,755 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.3 18.3 4.2 3.5 22.4 21.0 2.8 2.5

    Dishman Pharma Buy 53 92 429 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 5.8 4.7 0.4 0.4 7.7 8.5 1.0 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,003 - 16,969 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.4 24.3 7.6 6.6 30.8 29.0 5.5 4.7

    Indoco Remedies Buy 55 665 511 685 837 15.2 15.2 55.5 66.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 16.4 16.9 0.9 0.9

    Ipca labs Buy 335 443 4,214 2,907 3,541 21.5 21.5 32.4 40.6 10.3 8.3 2.6 2.1 27.8 27.7 1.6 1.3

    Lupin Buy 532 646 23,784 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 17.9 16.4 4.7 3.7 27.0 25.2 2.7 2.2Orchid Chemicals Buy 124 178 876 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.4 5.6 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.1 0.9

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 525 - 22,148 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 14.7 17.6 5.5 4.5 43.1 28.1 1.9 1.8

    Sun Pharma Accumulate 570 634 58,653 9,272 11,080 40.3 36.3 26.7 28.8 21.3 19.8 4.3 3.7 22.1 20.8 5.6 4.6

    Power

    CESC Buy 272 342 3,392 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.0 5.6 0.6 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.1

    GIPCL Buy 61 98 926 1,557 1,573 28.7 27.5 10.4 10.2 5.9 6.0 0.6 0.6 10.5 9.6 1.1 0.9

    NTPC Accumulate 145 158 119,147 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 11.6 10.3 1.5 1.3 13.0 13.5 2.3 2.1

    Real Estate

    Anant Raj Buy 46 78 1,368 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.5 3.7 0.3 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.5

    DLF Neutral 189 - 32,125 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 19.8 14.1 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.7 4.7

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Real Estate

    HDIL Buy 64 115 2,700 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 3.0 2.5 0.2 0.2 8.4 9.1 3.0 2.2

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 302 - 114,799 80,967 88,684 33.1 33.4 17.9 22.0 16.9 13.7 1.9 1.7 11.5 12.5 2.1 1.8

    Idea Cellular Neutral 79 - 26,260 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 24.6 16.7 1.9 1.7 7.5 10.0 1.6 1.4

    Rcom Neutral 67 - 13,901 21,899 23,740 32.7 32.7 4.2 6.7 15.9 10.1 0.3 0.3 2.1 3.2 2.1 1.7

    zOthers

    Bajaj Electrical Accumulate 215 245 2,139 3,670 4,384 8.5 8.5 18.3 22.3 11.7 9.6 2.6 2.1 23.9 24.3 0.6 0.5CRISIL Neutral 1,068 - 7,497 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 31.1 26.7 14.1 11.3 50.9 46.9 7.2 6.1

    Finolex Cables Buy 38 61 574 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

    Graphite India Buy 91 124 1,777 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.3 6.5 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 1.0 0.8

    Greenply Buy 211 298 508 1,800 2,047 11.1 11.6 34.1 49.6 6.2 4.3 1.1 0.9 20.2 23.7 0.5 0.4

    Page Industries Neutral 3,103 - 3,461 935 1,168 19.6 19.6 99.7 122.2 31.1 25.4 18.0 14.4 64.2 63.1 3.8 3.0

    Sintex Buy 57 129 1,549 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.1 13.4 0.7 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 268 439 251 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.0 3.4 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

    SpiceJet Neutral 32 - 1,555 5,384 6,443 (1.0) 4.1 (3.4) 2.4 (9.4) 13.4 (13.0) 27.4 - - 0.5 0.4

    Taj GVK Buy 61 108 380 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.7 6.7 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3

    Goodyear Accumulate 332 372 765 1,571 1,753 7.2 8.6 29.8 42.4 11.1 7.8 2.1 1.7 20.2 24.3 0.3 0.2

    HEG Buy 209 242 834 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.3 6.3 0.9 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.1

    Hitachi Buy 124 160 285 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 12.2 7.8 1.5 1.3 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.4

    Honeywell Automation Neutral 2,716 - 2,401 1,542 1,739 9.4 10.0 116.1 140.8 23.4 19.3 3.3 2.9 15.5 15.9

    Ineos ABS Neutral 752 - 1,322 900 1,011 10.2 11.5 35.6 45.7 21.1 16.5 3.1 2.6 15.4 17.2

    ITD Cementation Neutral 232 - 267 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.5 6.1 0.7 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

    MRF Buy 10,900 13,106 4,623 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 8.2 6.7 1.6 1.3 16.5 17.4 0.6 0.5Relaxo Accumulate 423 478 508 1,019 1,208 11.0 10.8 44.9 53.1 9.4 8.0 2.3 1.8 27.2 25.0 0.7 0.6

    Tata Sponge Buy 273 420 421 757 875 19.0 19.1 63.5 72.9 4.3 3.7 0.7 0.6 16.1 16.1 0.1 -

    TVS Srichakra Buy 328 462 251 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.5 3.6 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

    Vesuvius India Neutral 371 - 752 621 711 15.3 15.5 27.3 32.4 13.6 11.5 2.2 1.9 17.2 17.6 1.0 0.9

    Abbott India Accumulate 1,457 1,628 3,097 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.0 16.1 4.9 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.6 1.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Ltd Buy 250 288 317 385 444 17.2 17.4 28.9 32.0 8.7 7.8 1.8 1.5 23.4 21.1 1.0 0.9

    Jyothy Laboratories Buy 214 248 1,726 1,359 1,627 10.3 12.9 13.9 20.6 15.4 10.4 5.0 3.7 35.8 41.3 1.7 1.4

    Force Motors Buy 469 680 611 2,346 2,753 6.7 7.0 50.9 61.9 9.2 7.6 0.5 0.5 5.5 6.3 0.2 0.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 28, 2012

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    May 29, 2012Market Outlook