STRONGER togeth er Strategies for success 2015 Partner Conference Market Insights Ralph Acampora, CMT Altaira Wealth Management
STRONGER
together
Strategies for success
2015 Partner Conference
Market InsightsRalph Acampora, CMT
Altaira Wealth Management
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
10-Year Bond Yields—Remain in a firm downtrend; making a series of lower low and lower highs; would require a close above 3.5% to reverse the secular downtrend.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13
Interest Rates and Inflation
Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month except for March 2015, where real yields are calculated by subtracting out February 2015 year-over-year core inflation. All returns above reflect annualized total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Corporate bond returns are based on a composite index of investment grade bond performance. Data are as of March 31, 2015.
30
Nominal and Real 10-year Treasury Yields
Mar. 31, 2015: 0.25%
Sep. 30, 1981: 15.84%
Mar. 31, 2015: 1.94%
Nominal 10-year Treasury Yield
Real 10-year Treasury Yield
Average(1958 – 2015 YTD) 3/31/15
Nominal Yields 6.24% 1.94%Real Yields 2.48% 0.25%Inflation 3.79% 1.69%
Rising Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500 1958-1981 3.0% 8.6% Ann. Inflation 5.0% 5.0% Ann. Real Return -2.0% 3.5%
Falling Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500 1982-2014 9.6% 11.7% Ann. Inflation 3.0% 3.0% Ann. Real Return 6.6% 8.6%
Fix
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Interest Rates
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
U.S. Inflation (Annual CPI)
SPX Index—Remains in a secular uptrend after breaking topside a 13-year bear market.
DJIA vs DJTA—Negative divergence—Industrials trending higher while Transports have reversed an uptrend.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
U.S. Unemployment Trends
XLK—Pullback towards an uptrend support line underway; remains in a major uptrend.
XLU—Major trend has turned lower after the recent uptrend violation; next support at $40.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
What does a secular bull really look like?
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
Thank you