MARKET ACCESS MAPs FOR GTAP: A BILATERAL … · A BILATERAL MEASURE OF . MERCHANDISE TRADE PROTECTION. Taipei, June 2002. ... Salomon Isl. Angola E.E.A. Czech Rep.

MMARKET ARKET ACACCESS CESS MAPsMAPs FOR GTAP:FOR GTAP:

A BILATERAL MEASUREA BILATERAL MEASURE

OF OF MERCHANDISE TRADE PROTECTIONMERCHANDISE TRADE PROTECTION

Taipei, June 2002

Motivation

Regional groups and trade preferences have multiplied in a context of multilateral tariff dismantling;

Other trade barriers (tariff quotas, specific tariffs, antidumping, etc) are increasingly being enforced;

Information about applied measures is increasingly complex.

Guatemala

Australia

BulgariaCanada

Estonia

Hong Kong

Hungary

Israel

Japan

Korea, Rep.

Macao

Mongolia

New ZealandPoland

Romania

Singapore

Turkey

Swaziland

Lithuania

Taiwan

Algeria

Cyprus

Egypt

Lebanon

MaltaMorocco

SyriaTunisia

Micronesia

ArmeniaAzerbaijan

Belarus

Bosnia & HerzegovinaChina

Iran

Iraq

Kyrgyzstan

Libya

Moldova

Palau

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Vietnam

Yemen

Uzbekistan

Marshall Isl.

Oman

Nauru

Albania

ArgentinaBahrain

Brazil

Brunei

Ivory Coast

Croatia

Cuba

Georgia

Guyana

Indonesia

JordanKazakhstan

Malaysia

MaliMexico

Namibia

Pakistan

Paraguay

Philippines

Qatar

St. Kitts

Slovenia

South Africa

Sri Lanka

Thailand

UruguayIndia

Dominican Rep.

Kuwait

Laos

Afghanistan

Nepal

Bhutan

Cambodia

Maldives

MyanmarBangladesh

Bahamas

Cape Verde

Comoros

Congo Dem.Rep.

Eq. Guinea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Kiribati

Liberia

Samoa

Seychelles

Somalia

Sudan

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Sao Tome

Antigua

Belize

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Barbados

Ctrl. Afr. Rep.

Chad

Congo

Djibouti

Dominica

Fiji

Gabon

Gambia

Ghana Grenada

Guinea

Guinea-BissauHaiti

Jamaica

Kenya

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mozambique

NigeriaPapua

St. Lucia

St. Vincent

Sierra Leone

Tanzania

Togo

Trinidad

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

W.T.O.

AndeanGroup

A.C.P.

C.A.C.M.

L.D.C.

Euromed

E.F.T.A.

Chile

Rwanda

Salomon Isl.

Angola E.E.A.

Czech Rep.

Bermuda

Senegal

Niger

Slovakia

YugoslaviaMacedonia

Suriname

Latvia

East Timor

Greenland

Montserrat

Aruba

Anguilla

Gibraltar

Niue

Tokelau

Cook Isl.

Costa RicaNicaragua

Honduras

El Salvador Panama

Norway

Liechtenstein

Iceland

Switzerland

PeruBolivia

VenezuelaEcuador

Colombia

U.A.E

U.S.

Andorra

Bil.

G.S.P.

European trade policySome preferential regimes of the EU

Korea, Dem. Rep.

Australia

BulgariaCanada

Estonia

Hong Kong

Hungary

Japan

Korea, Rep.

New ZealandPoland

Romania

Singapore

Lithuania

Taiwan

Brunei

Slovenia

W.T.O.

G.S.P

AndeanGroup

A.C.P.

C.A.C.M.

L.D.C.

Euromed

E.F.T.A.

E.E.A.

Czech Rep.

Slovakia

Yugoslavia

Latvia

East Timor

U.S.

Bil.

EU trade policy: the MFN « proxy »

Korea, Dem. Rep.

General features of MAcMaps

Year: 1999

Geographic coverage: 147 markets for 220 exportingcountries;

Sectoral coverage: HS 6 or 10 (5,000 to 10,000 positions)

Aggregation: using a reference group to avoid endogeneity

Instruments of Protection in MAcMaps for GTAP

Ad valor. duties

Specific duties

Prohibitions

Tariff quotas

Antidumping Antidumping

TBTs

SPS

Global ad valorem equivalent

Sources of MAcMaps

Country sources reported to UNCTAD

(TRAINS),

Agricultural Market Access Database (AMAD)

for tariff-quotas,

Notifications to the WTO and national sources

regarding antidumping duties,

Official national journals, circulars and customs

web sites,

COMTRADE (UNSD) for trade data.

Constitution Constitution ofof referencereference groupsgroups

ClusteringClustering of of allall countries countries accordingaccording to:to:–– Per capita PPP GDP (by far Per capita PPP GDP (by far thethe mostmost

significantsignificant););–– Per capita imports;Per capita imports;–– Per capita exports.Per capita exports.

5 5 referencereference groupsgroups

Tariff for Chemically pure fructose in the EU

Partner RegimeAd valorem Specific

$/ton

Tariff Ad valorem Global ad valorem Tariff Tariff quota Equivalent

Equivalent %

HUNGARYJAPAN

MALAYSIA

ICELAND

BRAZILARGENTINA

TUNISIA

ANGOLA

BOLIVIACOLOMBIA

% % % % % %

121MFN 16.0 456.3 20 84.6USA104MFN 16.0 456.3 20 68.1TURKEY97MFN 16.0 456.3 20 60.882MFN 16.0 456.3 20 45.6

123GSP 13.6 456.3 20 89.7CHINA123GSP 13.6 456.3 20 89.4MEXICO76GSP 13.6 456.3 20 42.8

28EEA 7.8 0 20 00.0

104Exclusion GSP 16.0 456.3 20 68.096Exclusion GSP 16.0 456.3 20 59.9

Bilateral Agreement 880.0 456.3 20 68.0

57LDC 0.0 456.3 20 37.0

200.0 0 20 00.0Drug200.0 0 20 00.0Drug

The dimension of the problem

The problem is not two-dimensional

products * importing country

It is four-dimensional:

products * M countries * X countries * instruments

It will be reduced to a three-dimensional one in MAcMaps

for GTAP :

sector*exporting country/region*importing country/region

Reporting of antidumping practices since 1995

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 TotalAll notifications ofduties 118 86 124 162 181 671Total missing inMAcMap 18 21 19 17 24 99

Of which:Argentina 13 20 11 13 9 66

Chile 2 0 2 2 0 6Colombia 1 1 1 0 6 9

Czeck Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0Nicaragua 0 0 0 0 1 1

Thailand 0 0 1 2 0 3Venezuela 2 0 4 0 8 14

Source: based on WTO: “AD measures by reporting party from 01/01/95”

Aggregation procedure

Issues to be tackled in the aggregation of tariffs:

• Aggregating sectors using national imports as

weights under-valuates protection

• Aggregating exporting countries leads

to the same problem

•To aggregate importing countries

weights must reflect the purchasing power

Aggregation across products

Tariffs are weighted by Tariffs are weighted by bilateral imports of the reference groupbilateral imports of the reference group (RG) (RG) of importing countries.of importing countries.

ExampleExample : tea = black tea + green tea: tea = black tea + green tea

US tariff on Aus. tea =US tariff on Aus. tea =(US tariff on (US tariff on AustAust. black tea * US . black tea * US RGRG’’ss imports of imports of AustAust. black tea +. black tea +US tariff on US tariff on AustAust. green tea * US . green tea * US RGRG’’ss imports of imports of AustAust. green tea) /. green tea) /(US (US RGRG’’ss imports of imports of AustAust. black tea + US . black tea + US RGRG’’ss imports of imports of AustAust. green . green tea)tea)

Tariff aggregation of products

∑∑

∈

∈

×==∀=∀=∀

zs

sukZR

zs

suk

sukZR

zuk m

tmtzuk

),(

,),(

,,6,...2,1,220,...2,1;147,...2,1

Aggregation across exporting countries

TariffsTariffs are are weightedweighted by by bilateralbilateral imports imports ofof thethe referencereferencegroupgroup ofof importingimporting countriescountries

ExampleExample : Oceania = Australia + New Zealand: Oceania = Australia + New Zealand

US tariff on US tariff on OceanianOceanian tea =tea =(US tariff on Aus. Tea(US tariff on Aus. Tea** US US RGRG’’ss imports of Aus. tea +imports of Aus. tea +US tariff on NZ tea US tariff on NZ tea * * US US RGRG’’ss imports of NZ tea) /imports of NZ tea) /(US (US RGRG’’ss imports of Aus. tea + US imports of Aus. tea + US RGRG’’ss imports of NZ tea)imports of NZ tea)

Aggregation of the suppliersof a particular country

∑∑

∈

∈

×==∀=∀=∀

ju

zukZR

ju

zuk

zukZR

zjk m

tmtzjk

),(

,),(

,;6,...2,1;8,...2,1;147,...2,1

Aggregation across importing countries

TariffsTariffs are are weightedweighted by by globalglobal imports imports ofof importingimporting countries.countries.

ExampleExample : : NorthNorth = US + Luxembourg= US + Luxembourg

NorthernNorthern tarifftariff on on OceanianOceanian teatea ==(US (US tarifftariff on on OceanianOceanian teatea * * US global imports +US global imports +Lux. Lux. tarifftariff on on OceanianOceanian teatea ** Lux. global imports) /Lux. global imports) /

(US global imports + Lux. global imports)(US global imports + Lux. global imports)

Tariff aggregation of importing countries

∑ ∑∑

∑ ∑∑

∈

∈

×

××

==∀=∀=∀

vk z j

zjk

zjkZR

vk z j

zjk

zjkZR

zjk

zjv

mm

mmttzjv

,),(

,),(,

,;6,...2,1;8,...2,1;8,...2,1

Illustrative example7 exporting regions*7 importing regions*6 sectors

Sectors:

•motor vehicles & parts

•wearing apparel

•manuf. diary pts.

•wheat

•sugar

•textile

Market access into each importing zone is estimated for each exporting zone

for each of these products

Regions:

•ACP

•AED

•Cairns

•EU25

•Japan

•USA

•Row

Rates of protection in MAcMapsMarket access for wheat

I m p o r t e r s

ACP AED Cairns EU25 Japan RoW USA

ACP 42% 33% 50% 289% 7% 2%

AED 25% 24% 83% 270% 19% 4%

Cairns 20% 93% 40% 130% 18% 1%

EU25 19% 62% 33% 133% 12% 3%

Japan 40% 1% 13% 15% 1% 2%

Row 21% 97% 30% 58% 346% 4%

USA 17% 89% 16% 37% 150% 16%

P a

r t n

e r

s

Illustrative Illustrative exampleexample ofof Mac Mac MapsMaps for GTAP : for GTAP : beveragebeverage & & tobaccotobacco productsproducts (« (« b_tb_t » » sectorsector))

18,3%18,3%74,7%74,7%7,8%7,8%21,6%21,6%164,3%164,3%USAUSA

4,2%4,2%146,5%146,5%11,7%11,7%21,9%21,9%88,1%88,1%JapanJapan

28,6%28,6%20,1%20,1%8,3%8,3%25,6%25,6%124,5%124,5%IndiaIndia

6,3%6,3%21,6%21,6%94,3%94,3%21,7%21,7%104,0%104,0%EuropEurop

UnionUnion

5,9%5,9%38,1%38,1%134,8%134,8%14,7%14,7%78,0%78,0%BrazilBrazil

2,7%2,7%27,9%27,9%39,5%39,5%4,2%4,2%19,0%19,0%AustraliaAustralia

USAUSAJapanJapanIndiaIndiaEurEur UnUnBrazilBrazilAustr.Austr.