Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) MAPS experiences with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies Prof Harald Winkler Director, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Presentation at Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) 13-14 September 2016, Paris
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MAPS experiences with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, Harald Winkler CCXG GF September 2016 Breakout 3
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)
MAPS experiences with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies
Prof Harald Winkler Director, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Presentation at Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) 13-14 September 2016, Paris
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
LTMS and MAPS: Robust evidence base and facilitated stakeholder process
• jjk • Long Term Mitigation Scenarios 2006 to 2008 – South Africa
–
• $,5m
• MAPS LAC Programme – Brazil, Chile,
Colombia and Peru – 2010 to Paris 2015 – Donors were CIFF,
SDC, CDKN, Danes, USAID, others
• $22m
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
SBT1 SBT3 SBT4 SBT5 SBT6 SBT2 Mandate Plan or Scenario
Map research capacity
Research base year
data
Base case and RBS
Model actions
Research scaled up
effort Packages of actions,
CGE model
Process steps towards building scenarios
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
LTMS – political lines drawn by SA Cabinet
• Cabinet mandated the LTMS – this lead to the Peak
Plateau and Decline Trajectory (policy)
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Long-term perspective to inform short-term decisions
Start year 2025/30 2050
Con
stra
ints
Flex
ibilit
y
GHG
t
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
1) Long term context - SA’s emissions will “peak, plateau and decline” acc to national policy, within a
specified range
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
2) Medium term goal - SA’s emissions will be within a specific range in 2025 and 2030
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
3) Flexibility - in the longer term, SA’s “PPD” trajectory will be periodically reviewed
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Model development climate?
9
Mitigation
Development
1
2
If that is the relationship, why do we mostly model scenarios of climate stabilisation, mostly globally?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The challenges of development and climate need to be addressed simultaneously Achieving developmental goals (national development objectives, or global SDGs) are needed to provide basic human needs, especially poor countries and communities Climate change threatens to undermine the potential for development, yet is not as high a priority in developing countries Anti-theses Climate-first modeling (IAMs) have stabilisation as objective Development as driver, or constraint Emissions accounted by production, in-country (not intrinsic) National models optimise only on least-cost – currently Will it really give us deep decarbonisation? Thesis: we need a developmental modeling framework
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios High effort scenario
MAPS Chile results – development and mitigation
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
.
How can methodologies be devleped? MAPS Academy
A network of learning institutions
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Backcasting and forecasting ?
Forecasting: ΔABC Feasible pathways starting
from A Back-casting: ΔDEF Range of pathways ending in from D
Solution space: ADGH Meets target conditions, and feasible Source: Ashina et al (2012)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Ashina, S, Fujino, J, Masui, T, Ehara, T & Hibino, G 2012. A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Energy Policy 41: 584–598.
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
What might LGDS be good for?
1. Long-term perspective on short-term investment decisions
2. Link climate and development, by framing LGDS as development strategies
3. Tool in increasing ambition 4. Textured understanding of global
emissions pathways, as composite picture, close to national development
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Discussion Questions
1. How can methodologies for long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies deliver robust outputs and compelling narratives, and create a positive vision for each country?
2. How might long-term strategies inform other more near-term plans, including those focused on climate (e.g. NDCs) and development (e.g. energy, environment or other national development plans)?
All Parties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, mindful of Article 2 taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Decision 1/CP.21, para 35
Invites Parties to communicate, by 2020, to the secretariat mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 19, of the Agreement, and requests the secretariat to publish on the UNFCCC website Parties’ low greenhouse gas emission development strategies as communicated