Long-Run Growth ( 長期成長)

© 2002 © 2002 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/ePrinciples of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray FairKarl Case, Ray Fair

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Prepared by: Fernando Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoQuijano and Yvonn Quijano

Long-Run GrowthLong-Run Growth(( 長期成長長期成長 ))

講授﹕黃璿芳


Economic GrowthEconomic Growth(( 經濟成長經濟成長 ))

• Economic growthEconomic growth refers to an increase in the refers to an increase in the total output of an economy(total output of an economy( 指一經濟體內實質總指一經濟體內實質總產出產出 ,, 暨實質暨實質 GDP,GDP, 的增加）的增加） ..

Defined by some economists as the increase of Defined by some economists as the increase of real GDP per capita(real GDP per capita( 平均每位國民實質平均每位國民實質 GDPGDP 的增的增加）加） ..

• Modern economic growthModern economic growth is the period of rapid is the period of rapid and sustained increase in real output per capita and sustained increase in real output per capita that began in the Western World with the that began in the Western World with the Industrial Revolution.(Industrial Revolution.( 現代經濟的成長；指自西歐現代經濟的成長；指自西歐工業革命以來至今的期間內，實質產出不斷快速成工業革命以來至今的期間內，實質產出不斷快速成長的現象。長的現象。 ))


Industrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution

• 經濟史學家給某些國家在經濟和社會組織經濟史學家給某些國家在經濟和社會組織上發生重大變動的時期所取的名稱。上發生重大變動的時期所取的名稱。

• 首先是指英國從首先是指英國從 1750-18501750-1850 期間期間 ,,

• 後又指歐洲大陸上某些國家從後又指歐洲大陸上某些國家從 18301830 年起，年起，• 美國從美國從 18601860 年起，年起，• 日本從日本從 18701870 年起，及年起，及• 俄國從俄國從 19901990 年起年起• 在這段時期家庭作坊制度為工廠所取代，在這段時期家庭作坊制度為工廠所取代，• 工業革命在英國是從各種機器的發明、蒸汽動力的採用、勞動分工、工業革命在英國是從各種機器的發明、蒸汽動力的採用、勞動分工、

公路、鐵路和運河交通的發展開始，公路、鐵路和運河交通的發展開始，• 在此時期，亞當在此時期，亞當‧‧斯密、馬爾薩斯和李嘉圖等放任主義學說出現、斯密、馬爾薩斯和李嘉圖等放任主義學說出現、海外市場的開闢、工人人平均產量大幅上升，以及生活水平的普遍海外市場的開闢、工人人平均產量大幅上升，以及生活水平的普遍

提高。提高。


為何經濟會成長為何經濟會成長 ??

• Colleen and Bill on an island Colleen and Bill on an island 的例子的例子 Agriculture and simple shelterAgriculture and simple shelter

Shifted their resources into building a more comfortable home.Shifted their resources into building a more comfortable home.

Physical capital has been accumulated: a better house, tools, and Physical capital has been accumulated: a better house, tools, and a water system.a water system.

Human capital has been accumulated: knowledge, skills and Human capital has been accumulated: knowledge, skills and talents.talents.

At any given time, they face limits on what they could produce. At any given time, they face limits on what they could produce. This limits were imposed by the existing state of their technical This limits were imposed by the existing state of their technical knowledge and the resources at their disposal.knowledge and the resources at their disposal.

Over time, they expanded their production possibilities, developed Over time, they expanded their production possibilities, developed new technologies, accumulated capital, and made their labor more new technologies, accumulated capital, and made their labor more productive.productive.


Economic Growth Shifts PPFEconomic Growth Shifts PPF(( 經濟成長移動生產可能疆界經濟成長移動生產可能疆界 ))

• The production possibility The production possibility frontier(frontier( 生產可能疆界生產可能疆界 ):):shows shows all the combinations of output all the combinations of output that can be produced if all that can be produced if all society’s scarce resources are society’s scarce resources are fully and efficiently employed.fully and efficiently employed.

• Economic growth shifts Economic growth shifts society’s production society’s production possibility frontier up and possibility frontier up and to the right.to the right.

A

B

B’

A’

a1

a2

b1 b2


The Growth Process:From Agriculture to Industry The Growth Process:From Agriculture to Industry (( 經濟成長的過程：由農業至工業經濟成長的過程：由農業至工業 ))

• Before the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain, Before the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain, every society in the world was agrarian.(every society in the world was agrarian.( 在大不在大不列顛國工業革命發生之前，世界各地皆處在農業社列顛國工業革命發生之前，世界各地皆處在農業社會的狀態。會的狀態。 ))

• Beginning in England around 1750, technical Beginning in England around 1750, technical change and capital accumulation increased change and capital accumulation increased productivity in two important industries: productivity in two important industries: agriculture and textiles.(agriculture and textiles.( 工業革命均在工業革命均在 17501750 年起年起始於英格蘭，當時由於技術的變化和資本的累積，始於英格蘭，當時由於技術的變化和資本的累積，使得農業和紡織業的生產力大為增加。使得農業和紡織業的生產力大為增加。 ))

• More could be produced with fewer resources, More could be produced with fewer resources, leading to new products, more output, and wider leading to new products, more output, and wider choice.choice.


The Sources of Economic GrowthThe Sources of Economic Growth(( 經濟成長的原動力經濟成長的原動力 ))

• An An aggregate production function(aggregate production function( 總體的生產函數總體的生產函數 ): ): is the is the mathematical representation of the relationship between inputs mathematical representation of the relationship between inputs and national output, or gross domestic product.(and national output, or gross domestic product.( 以數學的方式表以數學的方式表達出一國的投入生產要素與產出間的關係。達出一國的投入生產要素與產出間的關係。 ))

• If you think of If you think of GDPGDP as a function of both labor and capital, as a function of both labor and capital,

i.e., Y = A F(L, K, H)i.e., Y = A F(L, K, H)

• you can see that an increase in Real you can see that an increase in Real GDP (Y)GDP (Y) can come about can come about through:through:

1.1. An increase in the labor supply, L (An increase in the labor supply, L ( 來自於勞動力供給的增加來自於勞動力供給的增加 ))

2.2. An increase in physical or human capital, K or H (An increase in physical or human capital, K or H ( 物質資本或物質資本或人力資本的增加人力資本的增加 ))

3.3. An increase in total factor productivity, A (An increase in total factor productivity, A ( 總要素生產力總要素生產力 ,, 或稱或稱技術變動技術變動 ,, 的增加的增加 ))


An Increase in Labor SupplyAn Increase in Labor Supply(( 增加勞動力的供給增加勞動力的供給 ))

• An increasing labor supply can generate more output, but if the An increasing labor supply can generate more output, but if the capital stock remains fixed, the new labor will be less productive capital stock remains fixed, the new labor will be less productive (diminishing returns).((diminishing returns).( 如果其他生產要素的投入數量不變，則隨著如果其他生產要素的投入數量不變，則隨著勞動力投入數量增加，最終將使得額外再投入一單位的勞動力，所勞動力投入數量增加，最終將使得額外再投入一單位的勞動力，所額外帶來的產出逐漸遞減，呈現邊際報酬遞減的現象。額外帶來的產出逐漸遞減，呈現邊際報酬遞減的現象。 ))

• 例例﹕﹕爸爸的工廠由爸爸的工廠由 1010 人人 =>11=>11 人人 ,,

產出由產出由 10001000 雙鞋子雙鞋子 =>1050=>1050 雙鞋子雙鞋子 ,,

Q/LQ/L 由由 100100 雙鞋子雙鞋子 => 95=> 95 雙鞋子雙鞋子• Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo predicted a gloomy future as Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo predicted a gloomy future as

population outstripped the land’s capacity to produce. However, population outstripped the land’s capacity to produce. However, they forgot the impact of technological change and capital they forgot the impact of technological change and capital accumulation.accumulation.


Labor Productivity(Labor Productivity( 生產力生產力 ))

Labor Productivity(Labor Productivity( 生產力生產力 ))==

Output per worker hour.Output per worker hour.

Q

L


Economic Growth FromEconomic Growth Froman Increase in Laboran Increase in Labor

• Growth in the labor force, without a corresponding Growth in the labor force, without a corresponding increase in the capital stock or technological change increase in the capital stock or technological change might lead to growth of output but declining productivity.might lead to growth of output but declining productivity.

Economic Growth from an Increase in Labor – More Output but Economic Growth from an Increase in Labor – More Output but Diminishing Returns and Lower Labor ProductivityDiminishing Returns and Lower Labor Productivity

PERIODPERIOD

QUANTITYQUANTITYOF LABOROF LABOR

LL(HOURS)(HOURS)

QUANTITYQUANTITYOF CAPITALOF CAPITAL

KK(UNITS)(UNITS)

TOTALTOTALOUTPUTOUTPUT

YY(UNITS)(UNITS)

MEASUREDMEASUREDLABORLABOR

PRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITYY/LY/L

11 100100 100100 300300 3.03.0

22 110110 100100 320320 2.92.9

33 120120 100100 339339 2.82.8

44 130130 100100 357357 2.72.7


Economic Growth FromEconomic Growth Froman Increase in Laboran Increase in Labor

Employment, Labor Force, and Population Growth, 1947 – 1999 Employment, Labor Force, and Population Growth, 1947 – 1999

CIVILIANCIVILIANNONINSTITUTIONALNONINSTITUTIONAL

POPULATIONPOPULATIONOVER 16 YEARS OVER 16 YEARS

OLDOLD(MILLIONS)(MILLIONS)

CIVILIANCIVILIANLABORLABORFORCEFORCE

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT(MILLIONS)(MILLIONS)

NumberNumber(Millions)(Millions)

PercentagePercentageof Populationof Population

19471947 101101.8.8 5959.4.4 58.358.3 5757.0.0

19601960 117117.3.3 6969.6.6 59.359.3 6565.8.8

19701970 137137.1.1 8282.8.8 60.460.4 7878.7.7

19801980 167167.7.7 106106.9.9 63.763.7 9999.3.3

19901990 189189.2.2 125125.8.8 66.566.5 118118.8.8

19991999 207207.8.8 139139.4.4 67.167.1 133133.5.5

Percentage change, 1947 – 1999 Percentage change, 1947 – 1999 + 104+ 104.1.1 + 134+ 134.7.7 + 134+ 134.2.2

Annual rateAnnual rate + 1+ 1.4%.4% +1+1.7%.7% + 1+ 1.7%.7%

Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000, Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000, Table B-33.Table B-33. 註： Labor force=employment+unemployment


Increases in Physical CapitalIncreases in Physical Capital(( 物質資本的增加物質資本的增加 ))

• An increase in the stock of capital can increase output, even if An increase in the stock of capital can increase output, even if it is not accompanied by an increase in the labor force.(it is not accompanied by an increase in the labor force.( 當其他當其他生產要素的投入不變時，增資物質資本存量，可增加產出。生產要素的投入不變時，增資物質資本存量，可增加產出。 ))

增加增加 capitalcapital 的投入，可能會造成：的投入，可能會造成： (1) (1) More Output, (2)Diminishing Returns More Output, (2)Diminishing Returns to Added Capital, (3)Higher Measured Labor Productivityto Added Capital, (3)Higher Measured Labor Productivity

PERIODPERIOD

QUANTITYQUANTITYOF LABOROF LABOR

LL(HOURS)(HOURS)

QUANTITYQUANTITYOF CAPITALOF CAPITAL

KK(UNITS)(UNITS)

TOTALTOTALOUTPUTOUTPUT

YY(UNITS)(UNITS)

MEASUREDMEASUREDLABORLABOR

PRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITYY/LY/L

11 100100 100100 300300 3.03.0

22 100100 110110 310310 3.13.1

33 100100 120120 319319 3.23.2

44 100100 130130 327327 3.33.3


Increases in Physical CapitalIncreases in Physical Capital ( ( 物質資本的增加物質資本的增加 ))

• The increase in capital stock is the The increase in capital stock is the difference between gross investment and difference between gross investment and depreciation , i.e., depreciation , i.e.,

Capital stock =Capital stock =

accumulated gross investment - depreciationaccumulated gross investment - depreciation

• Capital has been increasing faster than Capital has been increasing faster than the labor force since 1960. When capital the labor force since 1960. When capital expands more rapidly than labor, the ratio expands more rapidly than labor, the ratio of capital to labor (of capital to labor (KK//LL) increases, and this ) increases, and this too is a source of increasing productivity.too is a source of increasing productivity.


Increases in Physical CapitalIncreases in Physical Capital

Fixed Private Nonresidential Net Capital Stock(Fixed Private Nonresidential Net Capital Stock( 私人部門非住宅用的物私人部門非住宅用的物質資本存量質資本存量 ), 1960 – 1998), 1960 – 1998((Billions of 1996 Dollars)Billions of 1996 Dollars)

EQUIPMENTEQUIPMENT STRUCTURESSTRUCTURES

19601960 672672.5.5 2,0472,047.7.7

19701970 954954.2.2 2,7882,788.3.3

19801980 1,9881,988.9.9 3,6463,646.3.3

19901990 2,7212,721.0.0 4,7784,778.6.6

19981998 3,7973,797.3.3 5,3895,389.2.2

Percentage change, 1960 – 1998Percentage change, 1960 – 1998 + 464+ 464.7.7 + 163+ 163.2.2

Annual rateAnnual rate + 4+ 4.7%.7% + 2+ 2.6%.6%Source: Survey of Current Business, Source: Survey of Current Business, April 2000, computed from Tables 1 and 2, p. 21.April 2000, computed from Tables 1 and 2, p. 21.


Human Capital(Human Capital( 人力資本人力資本 ))

工人的知識和技能由受教育、受訓練或經驗中所獲得。


Increases in Human CapitalIncreases in Human Capital(( 增加人力資本：美國人民受教育的狀增加人力資本：美國人民受教育的狀

況況 ))Years of School Completed by People Over 25 Years Old, 1940 – 1998Years of School Completed by People Over 25 Years Old, 1940 – 1998

PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGEWITH LESSWITH LESS

THAN 5THAN 5YEARS OFYEARS OF

SCHOOL(SCHOOL( 受少於五受少於五年的教育年的教育 ))

PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGEWITH 4 YEARSWITH 4 YEARS

OF HIGH SCHOOLOF HIGH SCHOOLOR MORE(OR MORE( 高中以高中以

上者上者 ))

PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGEWITH 4 YEARSWITH 4 YEARSOF COLLEGEOF COLLEGE

OR MORE(OR MORE( 大專以大專以上者上者 ))

19401940 13.713.7 24.524.5 4.64.619501950 11.111.1 34.334.3 6.26.219601960 8.38.3 41.141.1 7.77.719701970 5.55.5 52.352.3 10.710.719801980 3.63.6 66.566.5 16.216.219901990 NANA 77.677.6 21.321.319981998 NANA 82.882.8 24.424.4

NA = not available.NA = not available.Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1990Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1990, Table 215; and , Table 215; and 1999,1999, Table 263. Table 263.


Increases in ProductivityIncreases in Productivity(( 增加生產力增加生產力 ))

• Growth that cannot be explained by Growth that cannot be explained by increases in the increases in the quantityquantity of inputs can be of inputs can be explained only by an increase in the explained only by an increase in the productivityproductivity of those inputs.( of those inputs.( 未能以投入未能以投入要素的數量增加來解釋成長的部份，將之要素的數量增加來解釋成長的部份，將之解釋為是由生產力增加才造成的成長。解釋為是由生產力增加才造成的成長。 ))

• Factors that affect the productivity of an Factors that affect the productivity of an input include technological change, other input include technological change, other advances in knowledge, and economies advances in knowledge, and economies of scale.(of scale.( 每種投入要素皆有其生產力，影每種投入要素皆有其生產力，影響投入要素生產力的因素包括科技的變動，響投入要素生產力的因素包括科技的變動，知識的增進和規模經濟等。知識的增進和規模經濟等。 ))


ProductivityProductivity 的衡量方式的衡量方式

1.1. Labor Productivity(Labor Productivity( 生產力生產力 )) ：： output per output per worker hour.worker hour.

2.2. Total factor Productivity(Total factor Productivity( 總要素生產力總要素生產力 ))

Y=A F(L ， K ， H)

Y 表 GDP(output)

A 表總要素生產力

L 表勞動力

K 表物質資本

H 表人力資本


科技變化促使生產力提升科技變化促使生產力提升

• Technological change affects productivity Technological change affects productivity in two stages:in two stages:

• Invention(Invention( 發明發明 )) ：： First there is an advance First there is an advance in knowledge, or an in knowledge, or an inventioninvention.(.( 例如：愛因例如：愛因斯坦的相對論。斯坦的相對論。 ))

• Innovation(Innovation(創新創新 )) ：： The use of new The use of new knowledge to produce a new product or to knowledge to produce a new product or to produce an existing product more efficiently.produce an existing product more efficiently.

• There are There are capital-savingcapital-saving innovations, and innovations, and labor-savinglabor-saving innovations.( innovations.( 創新有可分為創新有可分為兩種：節省資本的創新和節省勞動力的創兩種：節省資本的創新和節省勞動力的創新。新。 ))


Economics of scale Economics of scale ((規模經濟促使生產力提升規模經濟促使生產力提升 ))

• Economics of scale(Economics of scale(規模經濟規模經濟 )) 隨著公司的生產量隨著公司的生產量增加，長期平均總成本下降的特性。增加，長期平均總成本下降的特性。

• 規模經濟促使生產力提升的原因有許多種，例如：規模經濟促使生產力提升的原因有許多種，例如：

公司若設立一個新廠，若其地點可進一步減低運輸成公司若設立一個新廠，若其地點可進一步減低運輸成本；本；

研發的支出和在職訓練的方案，也可因為公司規模加研發的支出和在職訓練的方案，也可因為公司規模加大而使平均研發和在職訓練的成本下降。大而使平均研發和在職訓練的成本下降。

若平均總成本下降，則平均若平均總成本下降，則平均 $1$1 的投入所產生的產出的投入所產生的產出就高。就高。


Other influences on productivityOther influences on productivity(( 其他影響生產力的因素其他影響生產力的因素 ))

• 近年來，政府為了保護環境，以法規要求近年來，政府為了保護環境，以法規要求廠商減低對空氣和水的污染，廠商為了達廠商減低對空氣和水的污染，廠商為了達到政府的要求，將其部份資本與勞動用於到政府的要求，將其部份資本與勞動用於減輕污染上，因此，減低了衡量出的生產減輕污染上，因此，減低了衡量出的生產力。力。

• 近年來，政府為了保護勞工的安全和健康，近年來，政府為了保護勞工的安全和健康，也以法規要求廠商要增加對勞工發生意外也以法規要求廠商要增加對勞工發生意外的防範，和健康的保險，廠商為了達到政的防範，和健康的保險，廠商為了達到政府的要求，將部份的生產要素投入於對勞府的要求，將部份的生產要素投入於對勞工的安全和健康的保護，因此也減低的衡工的安全和健康的保護，因此也減低的衡量出的生產力。量出的生產力。


Growth and Output in the United StatesGrowth and Output in the United States(( 美國的成長和產出美國的成長和產出 ))

Growth of Real GDP in the United States, 1871 – 1999Growth of Real GDP in the United States, 1871 – 1999

PERIODPERIOD

AVERAGEAVERAGEGROWTHGROWTH

RATERATEPER YEARPER YEAR PERIODPERIOD

AVERAGEAVERAGEGROWTHGROWTH

RATERATEPER YEARPER YEAR

1871-18891871-1889 5.55.5 1950-19601950-1960 3.53.5

1889-19091889-1909 4.04.0 1960-19701960-1970 4.24.2

1909-19291909-1929 2.82.8 1970-19801970-1980 3.23.2

1929-19401929-1940 1.61.6 1980-19901980-1990 3.23.2

1940-19501940-1950 5.65.6 1990-19991990-1999 3.13.1

Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Tables F47-70, F98-124; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of , Tables F47-70, F98-124; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Economic Analysis.


Growth and Output in the Selected countriesGrowth and Output in the Selected countries

Growth of Real GDP in the United States and Growth of Real GDP in the United States and Other Countries, 1981 – 1998Other Countries, 1981 – 1998

COUNTRYCOUNTRY

AVERAGEAVERAGEGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATE

PER YEARPER YEAR

United StatesUnited States 3.13.1

JapanJapan 2.82.8

GermanyGermany 2.12.1

FranceFrance 2.02.0

ItalyItaly 1.81.8

United KingdomUnited Kingdom 2.42.4

CanadaCanada 2.52.5

AfricaAfrica 2.52.5

Asia (excluding Japan)Asia (excluding Japan) 7.37.3Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000, computed from Table B-110., computed from Table B-110.


Sources of Growth in the U.S. Economy, 1929 – 1982Sources of Growth in the U.S. Economy, 1929 – 1982(( 美國經濟成長的來源美國經濟成長的來源 ))

Sources of Growth in the United States, 1929 – 1982Sources of Growth in the United States, 1929 – 1982

PERCENT OF GROWTH ATTRIBUTABLE TO EACH SOURCEPERCENT OF GROWTH ATTRIBUTABLE TO EACH SOURCE

1929 – 1982 1929 – 1982 1929 – 1948 1929 – 1948 1948 – 1973 1948 – 1973 1973 – 1979 1973 – 1979

Increases in inputsIncreases in inputs 5353 4949 4545 9494

LaborLabor 2020 2626 1414 4747

CapitalCapital 1414 33 1616 2929

Education (human capital)Education (human capital) 1919 2020 1515 1818

Increases in productivityIncreases in productivity 4747 5151 5555 66

Advances in knowledgeAdvances in knowledge 3131 3030 3939 88

Other factorsOther factorsaa 1616 2121 1616 22

Annual growth rateAnnual growth rate 2.82.8 2.42.4 3.63.6 2.62.6in real nationalin real nationalincomeincome

aaEconomies of scale, weather, pollution abatement, worker safety and health, crime, labor disputes, and so forth.Economies of scale, weather, pollution abatement, worker safety and health, crime, labor disputes, and so forth.Source:Source: Edward Denison, Edward Denison, Trends in American Economic Growth, 1929 – 1982Trends in American Economic Growth, 1929 – 1982 (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1985). (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1985).

註： the Great Depression 發生在 1929~1935 ，一次世界大戰 1914~1918 ；二次世界大戰 1939- 1945 ，第一次石油危機 1973 。


Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000(( 勞工生產力勞工生產力 ))

註：第一次石油危機發生在 1973 ，第二次石油危機在 1981 。


Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000Labor Productivity, 1952 – 2000

• Some of the explanations for the slowdown Some of the explanations for the slowdown in productivity growth in the 1970s include:in productivity growth in the 1970s include:

• a low rate of savinga low rate of saving

• increased environmental and government increased environmental and government regulationsregulations

• lack of spending in R&Dlack of spending in R&D

• high energy costshigh energy costs

• However, many of these factors turned However, many of these factors turned around in the 1980s and 1990s yet around in the 1980s and 1990s yet productivity growth remained low.productivity growth remained low.


Economic Growth and Public PolicyEconomic Growth and Public Policy(( 經濟成長和公共政策經濟成長和公共政策 ))

• Policy provisions to improve the quality of Policy provisions to improve the quality of education include the new Education education include the new Education Individual Retirement Account that allows Individual Retirement Account that allows savings to earn tax free returns as long as savings to earn tax free returns as long as the balance is used to pay for educational the balance is used to pay for educational expenses.expenses.

• Policies to increase the saving rate Policies to increase the saving rate include individual retirement accounts that include individual retirement accounts that accumulate earnings without paying accumulate earnings without paying income tax.income tax.


Economic Growth and Public PolicyEconomic Growth and Public Policy

• The amount of capital accumulation is The amount of capital accumulation is ultimately constrained by its rate of saving.ultimately constrained by its rate of saving.

• The tax system and the social security The tax system and the social security system in the United States are biased system in the United States are biased against saving.against saving.

• Some public finance economists favor Some public finance economists favor shifting to a system of consumption shifting to a system of consumption taxation rather than income taxation to taxation rather than income taxation to reduce the tax burden on saving.reduce the tax burden on saving.


Economic Growth and Public PolicyEconomic Growth and Public Policy

• Other public policies to stimulate Other public policies to stimulate economic growth include:economic growth include:

• policies to stimulate investmentpolicies to stimulate investment

• policies to increase research and developmentpolicies to increase research and development

• reduced regulationsreduced regulations

• industrial policyindustrial policy, or government involvement , or government involvement in the allocation of capital across in the allocation of capital across manufacturing sectors.manufacturing sectors.


The Pro-Growth ArgumentThe Pro-Growth Argument((贊成成長的理論贊成成長的理論 ))

• Advocates of growth believe growth Advocates of growth believe growth isis progress.progress.

• New technologies and production New technologies and production methods lead to new and better products. methods lead to new and better products. Capital accumulation and new technology Capital accumulation and new technology improve the quality of life.improve the quality of life.

• In 1995, real GDP per capita was more In 1995, real GDP per capita was more than twice what it was in 1950. Since the than twice what it was in 1950. Since the 1950s, incomes have grown twice as fast 1950s, incomes have grown twice as fast as prices.as prices.


The Pro-Growth ArgumentThe Pro-Growth Argument

• Advocates of growth believe growth Advocates of growth believe growth isis progress.progress.

• Growth gives us more choices.Growth gives us more choices.

• New technologies and production New technologies and production methods lead to new and better products. methods lead to new and better products. Capital accumulation and new technology Capital accumulation and new technology improve the quality of life.improve the quality of life.

• Since the 1950s, incomes have grown Since the 1950s, incomes have grown twice as fast as prices so we can buy that twice as fast as prices so we can buy that much more.much more.


The Pro-Growth ArgumentThe Pro-Growth Argument

• Growth saves the most valuable Growth saves the most valuable commodity—time.commodity—time.

• Growth also improves the quality of things Growth also improves the quality of things that yield satisfaction directly.that yield satisfaction directly.

• Growth produces jobs and higher incomes. Growth produces jobs and higher incomes. With higher incomes we can better afford With higher incomes we can better afford the sacrifices needed to help the poor.the sacrifices needed to help the poor.

• When population growth is not When population growth is not accompanied by growth in output, accompanied by growth in output, unemployment and poverty increase.unemployment and poverty increase.


The Anti-Growth ArgumentThe Anti-Growth Argument((反成長的論點反成長的論點 ))

• Growth has negative effects on the quality Growth has negative effects on the quality of life.of life.

• Growth encourages the creation of Growth encourages the creation of artificial needs.artificial needs.

• Growth means the rapid depletion of a Growth means the rapid depletion of a finite quantity of resources.finite quantity of resources.

• Growth requires an unfair income Growth requires an unfair income distribution and propagates it.distribution and propagates it.


中華民國經濟成長中華民國經濟成長 ((按按 19961996 年價格計年價格計算算 ))

年別 GDP(NT$ million) 經濟成長率 (%) 平均每人所得 (%) 每人所得成長率 (%)

1951 187,591 - 21,982 -

1963 474,423 9.35 37,685 7.26

1964 532,300 11.20 41,380 9.80

1965 591,569 11.13 43,873 6.02

1966 644,293 8.91 46,608 6.24

1967 713,307 10.71 50,293 7.90

1968 778,724 9.17 53,630 6.64

1969 848,408 8.95 57,539 7.29

1970 944,878 11.37 62,516 8.65

1971 1,066,722 12.90 68,834 10.11

1972 1,208,783 13.32 76.301 10.85

1973 1,363,900 12,83 84,128 10.26



年別 GDP(NT$ million) 經濟成長率 (%) 平均每人所得 (NT$) 每人所得成長率 (%)

1974 1,379,747 1.16 82,264 -2.22

1975 1,447,748 4.93 83,989 2.10

1976 1,648,416 13.86 94,072 12.00

1977 1,846,383 10.19 101,044 7.41

1978 2,063,299 13.59 110,999 9.85

1979 2,231,953 8.17 118,256 6.54

1980 2,394,914 7.30 122,379 3.49

1981 2,542,505 6.16 125,263 2.36

1982 2,632,796 3.55 128,310 2.43

1983 2,855,186 8.45 137,050 6.81

1984 3,157,823 10.60 150,769 10.01

1985 3,314,214 4.95 156,783 3.99



年別 GDP(NT$ million) 經濟成長率 (%) 平均每人所得 (NT$) 每人所得成長率 (%)

1998 8,565,134 4.57 368.685 4.38

1999 9,029,704 5.42 379,533 2.94

2000 9,558,698 5.86 389,637 2.66

2001 9,523,039 -0.37 389,122 -0.13

資料來源：行政院主計處國民所得統計 (2002) 。

Long-Run Growth ( 長期成長)

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