Linking global megatrends to regional topics Some reflections on experiences in the joint project.

Linking global megatrends to regional topics

Some reflections on experiences in the joint project

To remember, what we did in the first article 5 project…

• We applied qualitative Modelling• We used the Consideo Modeler/iModeler• We applied different analysis/case studies on

different levels (regionally and complexity).

Qualitative modelling…

• A form of „structural modeling“• Building causal relation with additional information:– Orientation of causality– Strenght of connection– Direction of causality– Delay of impact(steps)

• Bringing together:– CLD, fuzzy cognitive maps

Loops and causalities

Relevant questions / aspects about global megatrends

• What actually IS a global megatrend?• How to find out, how global developments

drive lokal / regional developments?• For any assessment of (mega)trends, a

reference point - be an political objective, or an impact - is needed!

• Do we want to understand (better) the megatrend itself - or assess it‘s possible impacts (direct – indirect)?

What actually is a megatrend?

What did we do in the first study?

Two case studies:1. A more generic approach2. Connecting Swedish

Environmental goals with global megatrends

How do the results look like?

How to link GMT to the system?

- Just a „collector“- a real driver- Part of the system

Regional model (an excerpt)

My recommendations using QM to assess GMTs…

• Define the policy objectives or impact categories (maybe based on indicators)

• Develop the „causal system“ around these objectives/indicators.

• Don‘t stop expanding the model untill you reach global level.

• „collect“ (i.e. attach) the Global megatrends where the subtrends are apparend in the model.

• Evaluate the model just comparing GMTs