LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS. Arun K Sinha Markandey Rai & Ashbindu Singh IAOS Conference 2010, Santiago, Chile, Oct. 20-22, 2010. LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…. There are eight United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…
There are eight United Nations Millennium There are eight United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Development Goals (MDGs).
Its seventh goal aims to ensure Its seventh goal aims to ensure environmental sustainability, which is of environmental sustainability, which is of interest for the present investigation. interest for the present investigation.
It consists of four targets that include It consists of four targets that include target 7.A, 7.B, 7.C, and 7.D .target 7.A, 7.B, 7.C, and 7.D .
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…
Target 7.ATarget 7.A consists of ten indicators that consists of ten indicators that include proportion of land area covered by include proportion of land area covered by forest and carbon dioxide (COforest and carbon dioxide (CO22) )
emissions. emissions.
The address for the MDGs Indicators is The address for the MDGs Indicators is http://mdgs.un.org or http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Data.aspx .
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …
The site presents the official data, The site presents the official data, definitions, methodologies and sources for definitions, methodologies and sources for the 48 indicators for measuring progress the 48 indicators for measuring progress made towards the Millennium made towards the Millennium Development Goals. Development Goals.
Analyses point out to the excessive carbon Analyses point out to the excessive carbon dioxide emissions as one of the main dioxide emissions as one of the main factors of climate change across the world. factors of climate change across the world.
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON ……
With this view a trend analysis of the With this view a trend analysis of the emission is conducted. emission is conducted.
There are two main sources for the data of There are two main sources for the data of the carbon dioxide emission.the carbon dioxide emission.
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …
The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (Center (CDIACCDIAC) and the United Nations ) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Framework Convention on Climate Change (Change (UNFCCCUNFCCC). ).
For the present investigation the data set For the present investigation the data set provided by the CDIAC is used because it provided by the CDIAC is used because it gives data sets for a larger number of gives data sets for a larger number of countries / areas as compared with the countries / areas as compared with the UNFCCC. UNFCCC.
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON ……
The used data set was last updated on 23 The used data set was last updated on 23 June 2010. June 2010.
The unit of emission value is in thousand The unit of emission value is in thousand metric tons of COmetric tons of CO22. .
Only 210 out of 216 countries / areas have Only 210 out of 216 countries / areas have values of emissions for 1998-2007. values of emissions for 1998-2007.
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LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON ……
But 209 places are considered after But 209 places are considered after excluding “Niue” because its value is “4” excluding “Niue” because its value is “4” for each of the ten years under for each of the ten years under investigation. investigation.
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TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION …
For understanding the trends of the carbon dioxide emissions a linear trend equation based on the last ten years data is obtained for each country / area.
The investigation is based on the data of 1998 to 2007.
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TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION …
The assumption of linear trend is justified because of smaller number of observations.
This assumption appears to be more reasonable for understanding the annual growth rate.
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TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION …
Out of the two hundred nine thirty four countries / areas (16.3%) reveal negative annual growth rates (showing decreasing emission).
The linear trend equations disclose that China has the highest annual growth rate (394016) while Germany has its lowest value (-7488).
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TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION …
This shows that the emission over the years has decreased in Germany.
The descriptive statistics of the two countries are obtained.
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Figure 1. A pie chart depicting the sign of the annual growth rates of the carbon dioxide emissions
NP
Category
P175, 83.7%
N34, 16.3%
Countries / Areas with Negative (N) and Positive (P) Growth Rates
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Table . Descriptive Statistics of China and Germany
Variable China Germany
Total Count 10 10
Mean 4493614 831121
SE Mean 394807 9055
StDev 1248490 28635
CV 27.78 3,45
Minimum 3318045 787936
Q1 3384908 811310
Median 4020418 829716
Q3 5738873 840683
Maximum 6538367 894381
Range 3220322 106445
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Figure2. Boxplots of carbon dioxide in China and Germany during 1998-2007
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
Carb
on D
ioxid
e Em
issions
900000
875000
850000
825000
800000
Carb
on D
ioxid
e Em
issions
Boxplot of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China, 1998-2007
Median 4020418
Boxplot of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Germany, 1998-2007
Median 829716
894381 in 1998
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Figure3. Trend analysis plots for China and Germany, 1998-2007
10987654321
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
YearsCarb
on D
ioxid
e Em
issions
ActualFits
Variable
10987654321
900000
875000
850000
825000
800000
YearsCarb
on D
ioxid
e Em
issions
ActualFits
Variable
Trend Analysis Plot for China, 1998-2007Linear Trend Model
Yt = 2326528 + 394016*t
Trend Analysis Plot for Germany, 1998-2007Linear Trend Model
Yt = 872307 - 7488.34*t
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References
Levin, Richard I. and Rubin, David S. (2004). Statistics for Management. Seventh Edition. Pearson Education, (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Indian Branch, Delhi 110092, India.
Levine, D. M., Stephan, D., Krehbiel T. C. and Berenson, M. L (2006).
Statistics for Mangers, Fourth Edition. Prentice- Hall of India Private Limited, New Delhi-110 001,India
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Table1. Countries / areas with linear trend equations and annual growth rates during 1998-2007
Serial No. Countries / Areas LinearTrend Equations