LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TURKEY PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA
Dec 23, 2015
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
TURKEYPART 3: EARTHQUAKES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEYDISASTERS IN TURKEY
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEYDISASTERS IN TURKEY
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
WILDFIRES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH-QUAKES
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL
EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL
SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &
FAULTS
TECTONICSETTING &
FAULTS
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND
FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
EARTHQUAKE
TSUNAMI
GROUND
SHAKING
FAULT RUPTURE
FOUNDATION FAILURE
SITE AMPLIFICATION
LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
AFTERSHOCKS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
EXPOSUREMODEL
EXPOSUREMODEL
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE
IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS
IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS
VULNERABILITYMODEL
VULNERABILITYMODEL
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
UNREINFO
RCED MASO
NRY, BRIC
K OR S
TONE
REINFORCED C
ONCRETE WIT
H UNREIN
FORCED WALLS
INTENSITYINTENSITY
REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS
STEEL FRAME
ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME
VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX
3535
3030
2525
2020
1515
1010
55
00
MEA
N D
AM
AG
E R
ATIO
,
%
M
EA
N D
AM
AG
E R
ATIO
,
%
O
F R
EPLA
CE
MEN
T V
ALU
EO
F R
EPLA
CE
MEN
T V
ALU
E
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
ERZINCAN:TURKEY’S WORST
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DECEMBER 26, 1939
A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE
32,700 DEATHS
M7.8
IZMIT:TURKEY’S 2ND WORST
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER AUGUST 17, 1999
A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE
17,118 DEATHS
M7.6
IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS
IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS
THE REASON: LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE
PROTECTION (I.E., ADOPTION AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN BUILDING CODE)
THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
TURKEY’S TURKEY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
TURKEY’S TURKEY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION AND/OR PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE
EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE
• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DIS-ASTER RESILIENT.
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A
COMMON GOAL)
FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENT
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A
COMMON GOAL)
FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENT
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
• DATABASES • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE
• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)
• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)
• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND
SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP
• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND
SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP
• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)