Lesson 3 ODOT Analysis & Assessment
Dec 14, 2015
Analysis & Assessment
Learning Outcomes
• As part of a small group, apply the two-part analysis by generating exposure- response profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability
• Distinguish between analysis and assessment
Analysis
&
Assessment
AnalysisAnalysisScopingScoping EvaluateEvaluate
Identify useful
information
2. Resource-Focused Analysis
Conduct:
1. Action-Focused Analysis
Document uses and
limits of the information
Analysis & Assessment
The Fritiofson v. Alexander Five Part Test:
1. What is the geographic area affected by the project?
2. What are the resources affected by the project?
3. What are the other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions that have impacted these resources?
4. What were those impacts?
5. What is the overall impact on these various resources from the accumulation of the actions?
Fritiofson v. Alexander
AssessmentUseful Information
Information should support informed decisions
• What is relevant to the decision makers?
• What is relevant to the public and stakeholders?
• What is the most efficient and effective means of collecting that information?
• How will this information be used to foster a better decision?
Two-Part Analytic Question
To inform decisions, environmental impact analyses must be broken into two-parts:
• What effect does the action have on specific resources?
• i.e., action-focused• What does that effect mean from the
perspective of the resource itself?• i.e., resource-focused
Assessment
Scoping
REC’s
• Selecting RECs for analyses
• Relevant to the Decision and Decision-makers?
• Provides the most useful information?
• Accepted as surrogate or indicator?
• Relevance to the decision at hand?
• Time and cost effective
AssessmentScoping REC’s
• HydrologySurface, Groundwater, Soil water
• AirAir Quality, Visibility
• BiotaRepresentative, Unique, Imperiled
Species and Communities; Habitats
AssessmentScoping REC’s
• Socioeconomics• Education Services • Traffic and Transportation• Human Health • Public and Emergency Services• Community Cohesion• Economic Stability
AssessmentScoping REC’s
• Noise ImpactsHumans, Wildlife, Aesthetic
• Visual ImpactsViewsheds, Aesthetics,
• Cultural ImpactsArcheological, Historical, Architectural
AssessmentModels of REC’s
Uses of Models: • Transparency and Clarity;• Repeatable Analysis;• Identification of Effective Mitigation
Strategies;• Acknowledgement of Uncertainties• Two-Part Analysis
AssessmentScoping for RFFAs
• Other transportation projects …• … airport, freight, and transit • Other Federal agency activities • … approved NEPA documents or
projects under study • Activities in approved land use and
development plans• Major private projects• Reasonably foreseeable
Analysis
Two-Part Analysis of Effects
Action-Focused
• HØ – 1 = effects are reasonably detectable
Resource-Focused
• HØ – 2 = effects contribute to factors that shift the REC across the threshold of sustainability into a new dynamic state
Analysis
Looking for Degradation
• Sustainability and Thresholds • Resilience and Internal Controls• Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium,
Regime • Feedbacks and Adjustments• Cross-scale interactions
Analysis
Action-Focused
• exposure-response profile
• cause-effect
Resource-Focused
• Sustainability and optimize mitigation
Mitigation
• alternate exposure – response profile
• offset other agent’s effects
• Cut opportunity costs
Analysis
What are the Consequences, anyways?
Action-Focused• Develop exposure-response profileResource-Focused• Assess sustainabilityMitigation• Alternate exposure – response profile• Alternate sustainability outcomeReduce Risk and Uncertainty• Coherence• Monitoring and Adaptive Management
Assessment & Analysis Reminder on ICI Nomenclature
►Proposed action or alternative under review must have a direct and/or indirect effect on a specific resource for the proposal or alternative to exert a cumulative influence
►If no direct and/or indirect effect to a specific resource is suspected, there is no need to consider cumulative effects to that resource
Analysis
• Assess REC’s Exposure
• Assess REC’s Response
• Assess Risk from Exposure-Response Profile
AnalysisAction-Focused
• Generate Exposure-Response Profiles
• Evaluate the Profiles for Input to the Resource-Focused Effects Analysis
AnalysisAction-Focused
Generate Exposure-Response Profiles
Use qualitative and quantitative techniques to estimate the magnitude and intensity of potentially significant action-focused effects, and to enhance comparative descriptions of future conditions
Analysis
• Risk analyses integrate exposure and response profiles to estimate the risk the Action poses to REC (especially the sustainability of the REC)
Analysis
• Exposure means co-occurrences or interactions between REC (reduced) and (deconstructed elements of) the proposed Action
• multiple orders: first, second, …
• multiple scales: spatial and temporal
Response Assessment
• Response of Resources to exposure
• This may be serial or multi-faceted exposure-responses
Analysis
Analysis
• Exposure will tell us which individuals from particular Resource of Interest are likely to be exposed, over what area and time, and with what intensity
• Response will tell us what will happen to those particular Resources of Interest upon exposure
Analytic
Framework
• Risk analyses consider the response profile, along with other stressors, to assess the REC’s and system’s resilience to perturbation and the potential of these stressors to push the REC and system across a threshold to an alternate structure and form.
AnalysisAction-Focused
Assess the Consequences
• Does exposure-response profile provide sound input to resource-focused part of effects analysis?
• Is the information useful for decision-making?
• Identify unacceptable exposure-response profiles or levels of uncertainty (mitigate?)
AnalysisResource-Focused
• Identify the important exposure-response profiles or cause-and-effect relationships between the REC and proposed project
• Determine the magnitude and significance of cumulative effects
AnalysisResource-Focused
• Consider mitigation to reduce total effects, including adding new alternatives
• Monitor and, if warranted, Adapt Management
AnalysisResource-Focused
Response Assessment
• Sustainability
• “Regulatory” Thresholds– Administrative: Statute, Rule, or Guidance – Community Standard or Perceived – “Natural”
Poor Word Choice: “Regulatory” does not limit
AnalysisResource-Focused
• Thresholds
• Resilience
• Trends
• Sustainability
(for complex systems, consider adjustments and feedbacks, too)
SustainabilitySystem Response
• Sustainability and Thresholds • Resilience and Internal Controls• Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium,
Regime • Feedbacks and Adjustments• Cross-scale interactions
Analysis & AssessmentDocumentation
• Draw Conclusions
– What Do We Know (Supported by Data)?– What Do We Not Know (Assumptions and
Extrapolations)?– Is What We Do Not Know Important For the
Decision (Risk and Uncertainty)?
Analysis & AssessmentExercise
Model REC and projectID “sustainable” for this RECDescribe Interactions of REC and project
Action-FocusedExposure-Response Profile
Resource-FocusedRisk to sustainability
Identify Mitigation Options
Monitoring or Adaptive Management to reduce Uncertainty