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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 1
What’s Next?Richard S. Rosen, AIA LEED APPrincipal
Valerie B. Mutterperl, AIASenior Associate
May 19, 2015
LeadingAge NY 2015
Evolving Pattern 1: Health Market Segments
“Boomers” will have health issues and experience the need for care and assistance
At the same time many aspects of health, or the health of many, are likely to be better than in the past
But they (we) WILL age
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 2
Evolving Pattern 2: Shift in Where and How Support is Delivered
Access to medical capabilities and information is greatly increased
Continued confluence of events that will result in alternative delivery models and movement away from institutional settings
Increased integration of management/care across settings and time —“Management” is the keystone
Emerging Pattern 3: Businesses that Respond to the Eternal Wish, “I want to stay in my own home,” Will Thrive Increased growth in and efforts
to sell consumers devices that allow aging-in-place
Continued demand for and growth in services and products that facilitate wellness and mobility
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 3
Integrating the Needs and Desires
What is Home?
Desire to reduce maintenance
Desire to downsize
Desire for control and autonomy
Where I know my community (bakery, grocery, etc.)
Desire for safety
Emerging Pattern 4: The Divide Deepens
Health, technology access and use, fitness, nutrition are all age and income related
Most data pointing to a deepening divide of rich and poor
Future impact of government debt?
Inflation, housing values, interest rates, shifting the rules of 401(k)s, understanding fees
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 4
Emerging Patterns 4, 5, and 6:
Observation of growing interest in “community” and models that support it: Villages, Co-Housing, CCRCs
Sharing Rather Than Owning:
Millenials are setting the example
Economic times = only one driver of this trend
Not just things, also one’s skills?
Experience vs. Things: Always Existed Among Older Adults?
Product Observations from the Field
Assisted Living and Memory Care:
Most of the growth
But there are some undercurrents
Home Care
Increased start-ups by CCRCs
Challenges remain
On campus
Crossing the threshold
Ongoing interest in CCRCs – but still a limited market, risk, high danger under some scenarios
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 5
If I Were Queen Of A Forest My Forest Would Have:
Home Care (across the threshold)
Care management, concierge
Housing:
Smaller blocks that fit into most neighborhoods
Not necessarily age restricted
Age defiant residences
Identify NORCs and Emerging NORCs
Consumer communications tools
Key Concepts for the Future
Smaller
Neighborhood integrated
Autonomy for constituents but key support over time
Eliminate “packages” because the average shoe fits no-one
Separate housing from services
Because we can — tools never before available
Because we must — economic times, growing demands, what we can afford, mission
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 6
How Much Market Are We Leaving On The Table?
Or who are we failing to serve?
The Challenges – Home Care
Making the leap off-campus
Mass to support infrastructure
Technology
Management
Added offerings
Staffing, wages, consequent fees
Commitment
The Leader, The Will
Resources
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 7
The Challenges – Housing
HOUSING YOU OWN AND CONTROL
Understanding essential elements to include
Controlling price, value
Location
NORCS AND OTHER DENSE SETTINGS
No point of control: individuals’ decision
The market, sales, communications
The Challenges: Assessment, Care Management
Structure:
Membership Fee? Fee-for-Service?
Characteristics, what is included, gaining acceptance
Establishing high quality, successful plans and outcomes
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 8
Three Business Lines –Alone or Forming One Structure
Key components for the future
Each is showing up as critical components on many CCRC campuses
Assessments assure appropriate services to residents, reduce re-hospitalization even when home care and other services are contracted
How to move them over the threshold?
The Age Wave
Sea Changes
Demographic
Political
Medical
Technological
Societal
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 9
Stock market plunge/recession (2008)
In 2014, we asked 200 industry leaders across the country…
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 10
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 11
Time machine to the future…
Sea Changes | Demographic
Biomedical breakthroughs and advances in disease prevention continue to decrease mortality rates.
2015Major numerical increases in the 85+ world population growth is in countries such as China and India.
2020
The 85+ US population spirals from 3.3 million in 1990 to 23.3 million in 2020, representing an over 600% increase in this vulnerable age group.
2025Japan experiences a 274 percent increase in the 80+ populationbetween 1990 and 2025.
2035Oldest living person celebrates 140th birthday!
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 12
Sea Changes | Political
World sees “Third Age Party” established.
2015Republican party splintered-in-half due to infighting regarding social security benefits between the young and the old.
2020State retirement age revised to 75 years in Europe, and Japan.
2025America’s second woman president, Chelsea Clinton,takes the oath.
2035 International “Junger Party” born.
Sea Changes | Medical
Scientists discover means to “Switch off Alzheimer’s gene” -Alzheimer’s disease gene therapy begins. Cancer and AIDS follow.
2015Home testing kits for Alzheimer’s gene fly off of the pharmacy shelves.
2020
Incidence of other conditions such as arthritis and heart disease radically evaporate as Medical/DNA research finally conquers key causes of death in older persons.
2025Special care units occupancy levels plummet.
2035 Life expectancy rises to 150 years+.
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 13
Sea Changes | Technological
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Apple/Jobs Foundation fund research for creation of the first “I-Care.”
2015Apple iGlasses provide wearer with streaming data from medication reminders to facial recognition and names.
202030% of single women over the age of 85 have a robotic cat, named Robokoneko.
2025Apple’s iTechnology group beta tests wearable biometric screening called iT Depends.
2035I-CARE Robotics becomes standard feature in new homes… and cars.
Sea Changes | Social
Age segregation declared unconstitutional by Supreme Court.
2015Older consumers resent concept of age segregated housing as an environment of choice.
2020Former Assisted Living communities open doors to all generations requiring care and support.
2025 TIME magazine declares “Is Retirement Dead?”
2035CCRCs demolished under new Federal program called 2-old for you-2.
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 14
1985
To put this in perspective: 28 years ago:
Calculators cost $200
There was no global internet.
There were no cell phones.
The first laptop computers had just been introduced.
The most powerful personal computer available was less powerful than your current cell phone.
Compact discs had been developed, but were still several years from mass production; vinyl records were still the dominant form of musical distribution.
Cordless telephones were novel, as were answering machines, and microwave ovens.
How do we look for early predictors of change?
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 15
Shift from total control to partnering
Shift from things to experiences
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 16
The marketplace wants to stay at home… however they define it.
Aging in Place | Unit Design
medicine cabinet location for access/light
emergency outlet for medical equipment
sheltered balcony
second bedroom option for caregiver
drawer dishwasher
doors swing out for safety
w/d shelving
transfer tub/shower
side-by-side refrigerator
full height “easy reach” pantry cabinet
electric oven with front controls
shower stall with space for portable shower chair
hand held shower wand
“easy reach” linen closet
large windows, low sills
bedroom large enough for two single bed option
Apartment for Life
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 17
The Fully Integrated Home
The Fully Integrated Home
Multi-Tasking Countertops
Smart Windows
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 18
Accommodating Lifelong Living
Adapt environment to user by moving traditionally fixed items
Maximize individual’s independent performance of daily tasks
Pressalit
Specialized Dementia Design for Cognition
House for Betty®
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 19
Demand for existing products will decline as we offer more options and services.
Incremental Re-invention
U.S. Dept. of Veterans AffairsDanville, IL
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 20
Rehabilitation and/or Palliative Careis the Focus on Long Term Care
Moorings Park | Wellness Center
Senior consumers will demand the best service and value… whoever provides it.
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 21
Leverage CCRC Resources by “Hosting”
C.C. Young: The Point, Center for Arts & Education | Dallas, TX
Leverage Resources | Inviting Broader Community In
Fairhaven Retirement Community | Sykesville, MD Cumberland Woods Village | McCandless, PA
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 22
Leverage Resources | Partner or Integrate with Non-Senior Providers
NCPH CCRC | Foster City, CA
Age-Friendly Community | Retail Integration
Crystal Springs Community | Annapolis, MD
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 23
Accountable Healthcare
Seniors will expect a continuity of lifestyle.
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 24
Choices
Great Room
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 25
Lifestyle Homes
Exercise and Yoga Sports and Entertainment Messy Painter
Cou
rtes
y of
Nat
iona
l Sen
ior
Leag
ue.
Culture/Lifestyle Targeted
Lifestyle driven with shared values and experiences
Family may not be support structure
Niche markets
RainbowVision Santa FeSanta Fe, NM
Diversity of Models | Lifestyle Choices
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 26
Retiring with friends
Small scale, “in” community
Self-planned and designed
Community reliance for services
Westwood Cohousing, Asheville NC
Harmony Village Cohousing, Golden CO
Diversity of Models | Co-housing
Wild Sage Cohousing, Boulder CO Silver Sage Cohousing, Boulder CO
Villa Buildings
10-12 units / building with parking below
All corner units (4/floor)
Attempts to appeal to cottage customer where density is an issue
Product variety
NewBridge on the CharlesDedham, MA
Diversity of Models | Product Options
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 27
What could the futurelook like?
Natural Outback Community sponsored by:
Phoenix University
Dr. Scholl’s & Birkenstock
Apple Computer
The Jerry Garcia Foundation
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 28
Our business affiliates Harvard and New York University offer:
Online MBAs… in just 6 weeks
Chess masters
Film-making… you can be the star
Bring back the Dead: Holographic concert
headlined by The Grateful Dead and a reunited virtual Beatles
Intergenerational activities: Recreational storytelling Monthly show and tell days
in various languagesOur grass is greener and we smoke it!
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 29
Local native extremist, Ted Nugent, educates you in organic and extreme outback living: Family time - Grow your
own food Join in extreme sports in a
virtual environment Relax with yoga and
meditation, and herbal treatments
Enjoy our multiple locations:
Enjoy the natural luxuries of the fully equipped human habitat biosphere with rainforest, desert, ocean, marsh, and agriculture biomes
High tech vs. low tech living all in one
City Center
Or timeshare them all!
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 30
Enjoy our travel partners:
Leave the driving to us
Have your own “cyclopod” and get urban street cred
Enjoy our cloud culture with digital translator connecting people to dialogue, deals and distribution.
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl [email protected] 31
Our business partners eBay, Fortune and CraigsList can provide a virtual work environment to stay connected and work for those who can’t find their nest egg.
San Diego Zoo (we let the dolphins go home!)Former World Expo, Shanghai, China
65-72 floors of Freedom Tower, NYCFormer Hyatt Regency, Atlanta, GA… see a vertical farm in the atrium
Visit our locations:
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
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Community Restaurant
CommunityCultural Center
SeniorCenter
MuseumWith Café
SeniorHousing
Ground Floor PACE and
Small HouseSatellite College
Multi-family Housing Above
CommunityHealthClinic
And visit www.neverthatold.org for our newest community in development.
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
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We don’t have to do it alone
We can leave a smaller footprint
We can make a difference in new and unlikely ways
We can have a broader appeal
It can be fun
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LeadingAge NY 5/19/15
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Thank You