L a s t M o d i f i e d 2 0 1 2 / 1 2 / 0 7 1 0 : 4 5 W . C e n t r a l A f r i c a S t a n d a r d T i m e P r i n t e d 1 2 / 7 / 2 0 1 2 2 : 0 4 P M I n d i a S t a n d a r d T i m e | DR. NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA Coordinating Minister for the Economy & Hon. Minister of Finance May 29, 2013 PRESIDENTIAL MID-TERM REPORT Summary of Policies and Strategies for Delivering The Transformation Agenda
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DR. NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA
Coordinating Minister for the Economy &
Hon. Minister of Finance
May 29, 2013
PRESIDENTIAL MID-TERM REPORT
Summary of Policies and Strategies for Delivering The Transformation Agenda
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What Have We Done So Far?
Where Are We Coming From?
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Insufficient Jobs and Poverty
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High Recurrent
Expenditure
Falling reserves
Dependence on Oil
Exports
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Rising Domestic
Debt
High Inflation
Infrastructure in Poor State
High Food Importation
/ Food Insecurity
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Housing Deficit
Nigerian Economy Faces Many Challenges Which The Transformation Agenda Is Designed To Address
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What Have We Done So Far?
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The Economy Is Strong But Faces Challenges Of Inequality & Inclusion
• GDP growth in 2013 is expected at 6.5% (NBS) or 7.2% (IMF)
GDP is One of the Fastest Growing in the World
• Dollar exchange rate has been between ₦155 and ₦160 over the last two years
Exchange Rate is Stable
• Inflation rate has slowed to 9.1% from 12.4% in May 2011
Rate of Inflation is Coming Down
• From $32.08 billion in May 2011 to $48.4 billion as of May 2013
• Excess Crude Account (ECA) - (Component of External Reserves)- Rise from about $4 Billion in May 2011 to around $9
billion at the end of 2012, but now about $6 billion in May 2013
•• - ECA now helping us since oil production has fallen from
the projected 2.53 million bpd to between 2.1 – 2.2 million bpd
External Reserves are Rising
A
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1 Footnote
SOURCE: Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Investment Authority; Federal Ministry of Finance
US$1 billion earmarked for investment in the 3 arms i.e. Stability Fund, Infrastructure Fund and Future Generation Fund
Management team has developed a comprehensive strategy document which was presented at its inaugural board meeting on 13th November 2012
The NSIA to commence core investing activities from Q2 2013 and currently evaluating potential infrastructure investment opportunities
1The Board of the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority was Inaugurated on 9th October, 2012
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Sovereign Wealth Fund Is In Place…
President Jonathan’s Administration believes that putting aside some money for emergencies is important just as we all do for our families. So this
administration has supported a policy of savings
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• Policy is to reduce recurrent expenditure and complete unfinished capital projects• - Recurrent expenditure has dropped from 74.4% of total budget in 2011 to
68.7% in 2013• Envelop system developed to enable Ministers prioritize uncompleted capital projects
Cost of Government is Reducing
• Annual Borrowing has fallen from ₦852 Billion in 2011 to ₦588 Billion in 2013
Government Borrowing is Declining
• Debt to GDP in Nigeria – 21%; South Africa – 42.7%; SSA -34.2%; USA – 106%; Japan – 225%; UK – 90%
Our National Debt is Low
• Waiver and Tariff policies have changed:• - Government focusing on sectoral waivers rather than individual. e.g.
agricultural, power, aircraft spare parts, solid minerals at zero duty
• Trade has improved; imports are down (textiles, plastic & rubber, paper & paper making material), and exports are up (plastic & rubber, vegetable products, prepared food stuff and beverages). • - Non-oil exports have increased from 9% of total exports in 2008 to 31% in
2012• - Oil exports are now 69% of total exports, compared to 91% in 2008
• Procurement Policy Implementation stepped-up to prevent corruption (e.g. Aggressive monitoring of contract thresholds, increased awareness, encouraging whistle-blowing, introduction of stiffer penalties, introduction and take-off of e-procurement), leading to improvement savings of ₦420 billion as at the end of FY 2012.
To Underpin the Strong Economy:
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A New Petroleum Subsidy Payment Regime Is In Place To Help Stem Leakages
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…Revised Process (2-step audit process)Old Process…
Marketer Paid
Auditor: Witnesses physical discharge
Physical verification Quantity discharged Claim to be paid
Auditor #1: Witnesses physical discharge
Physical verification Quantity discharged
Auditor #2: Fiscal verification
• We audited ₦1 trillion in subsidy and found ₦232 billion questionable. So far, we have recovered about ₦14 billion. We have tightened the payment process
• PPPRA reduced the number of oil marketers from 143 to 32
Marketer Paid
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Contributory Pension Scheme Is Sound But Defined Benefits Scheme Is Being Reformed To Prevent Fraud
Background
Objectives
• The Federal Government Defined Pension Scheme is decentralized and managed by several pension offices/department and is inconsistent with the intention of the Pensions Reform Act (2007)
• The Pensions Reform Act (2007) establishes a pension department known as Pensions Transitional Arrangement Department (PTAD) to oversee the management of pensions under the Defined Benefits Scheme for pensioners not transiting to the Contributory Pensions Scheme
• Following Mr. President’s directive to ensure strict compliance with the provisions of the Pensions Reform Act (2007), the CME/HMF inaugurated an Inter-Ministerial Committee in August 2012 headed by the Director-General Pensions Commission (PenCom) to carry out Mr. President’s instruction
• The Inter-Ministerial task was structured into two phases:o Phase One: Design the governance and operating framework for the PTADo Phase Two: Data validation and authentication of the existing pensioners
database and the development of an authentic database
Key Achievements
• Phase one completed and Phase Two is underway
• Result: All Defined Benefit Pension Systems for Civil Service, Police, Prisons, Immigration, Customs etc. will be managed in one department reporting to Ministry of Finance with direct payment to beneficiaries based on biometrics
Defined Benefits Scheme:
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Expenditure side measures taken
Introduction of the Government Integrated Financial Management and Information System (GIFMIS) in April 2012.
• GIFMIS is aimed at improving the acquisition, allocation, utilization and conservation of public financial resources using automated and integrated, effective, efficient and economic information systems.
• 58% of the budget now executed through GIFMIS. Will rise to 79% by end of third quarter 2013.
Treasury Single Account (TSA) is a unified structure of government bank accounts that gives a consolidated view of the cash position.
• 93 MDAs are currently on TSA
• Government’s overdrawn position has dropped from ₦102 billion in 2011 to ₦19 billion in 2012
The Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS):
• Enhances efficient personnel cost planning and budgeting as personnel cost will be based on actual verified numbers and not estimates
• 215 MDAs (153,019 staff) are on IPPIS as at Jan 2013
• Savings on Payroll cost to date is ₦118.9 billion
• Work ongoing to bring in other 321 MDAs not yet on IPPIS
Government Has Put In Place Systems To Increase Efficiency In Public Financial Management
IPPIS
GIFMIS
TSA
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Nigeria’s Credit Ratings Have Improved
• Ratings by international agencies like Fitch, Standard & Poor’s, and Moody’s have improved to BB- (or equivalent)
• As a result, Nigerian corporates are able to borrow at cheaper rates on the international credit markets
• A number of our banks have gone to raise funds abroad e.g. Access Bank ($350 million Euro Bond), GTB ($350 million Euro Bond), Fidelity Bank ($300 million Euro Bond)
International Investors are More Interested in Nigeria
• Domestic bonds included in JP Morgan and Barclays emerging market Index• About $7 Billion invested in Nigeria by foreign investors in 2012• Nigeria has become the highest investment destination in Africa
Strong Economic Performance Has Received International Validation
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Of the FG’s ₦180 billion budgeted for the 2012 SURE-P, ₦86.5 billion was spent. The remaining balance of ₦93.5 billion was carried over into the 2013 SURE-P budget bringing its sum to about ₦273.5 billion in projected expenditure.
Subsidy Reinvestment Program (SURE-P)
S/N Classification/Projects 2012 (Annual Budget,
N’ Bns)
2013(Annual Budget
N’ Bns)
A SOCIAL SAFETY NETS (e.g. Maternal & Child Health, Mass Transit, Community Services, Graduate Internship Scheme)
38.44 40.83
B NIGER DELTA Augmentation for East-West Road (Sections 1-4)
21.70 42.27
C WORKS (ROADS & BRIDGES) (e.g. Abuja-Lokoja Road, Kano-Maiduguri, Oweto Bridge)
85.50 111.50
D TRANSPORT (RAIL) (e.g. Lagos-Kano, Port-Harcourt - Maiduguri)
33.36 77.42
E OTHER EXPENSES (e.g. SURE-P Board, M&E) 1 1.5
180.00 273.52
Breakdown of FGN SURE-P Budget
Subsidy Savings 2012 2013 (Jan – May)
Federal Government ₦180 Billion ₦75 Billion
States Government ₦154.6 Billion ₦64.4 Billion
Local Government Councils ₦76.4 Billion ₦31.8 billion
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Key Reforms Under Implementation To “enable” Economic Performance
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This Is Focused On:
• Infrastructure o Government policy is to use PPP as an instrument for
infrastructure and other development to supplement budget resources. e.g. 2nd Niger Bridge.
o ICRC and PPP units in various MDAs are working on this
• Sectoral Reforms o e.g. Agriculture, Manufacturing, Housing, ICT, Health, Education,
Sports, Creative Industries
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Government Has Been Reforming The Financial Sector…
Cleanup of the Banking System Complete…
Government Policies have Supported Capital Markets
(e.g. Forbearance, Elimination of VAT & Stamp Duties, etc.)
• As a result, capital markets has now rebounded…
• Stock market index has risen by 71% since May 2012
• Stock market capitalization (value of listed companies) has increase by 66.2% since May 2012 to ₦11.8 trillion
• Through government policies (e.g. introduction of micro-insurance, compliance with compulsory insurance, etc.) more Nigerians are now aware of Insurance Policies
• Number of policy holders has also increased from 700,000 in 2010 to 1.5 million in 2012
• Claims paid increased from ₦37 billion in 2010 to ₦52 billion in 2012
• All 24 banks are now fully stable and capitalized
• Non-Performing Loans have fallen to about 5%
• But not enough lending is going on at affordable interest rates so the government is:
Restructuring existing DFIs to get in private sector capital
Creating a new wholesale DFI for 10-15 year money at affordable rates
Insurance Sector is Doing Better…..
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• Rehabilitation of the main Rail Lines (moribund for 15 years):
o Western Line: Lagos – Kano; 1,124km completed and functional
o Eastern Line: Port-Harcourt – Maiduguri; expected to be completed by 2013
o Abuja – Kaduna Standard Gauge Line – 60% completed
o Itakpe – Ajaokuta – Warri Standard Gauge Rail Line – 77% completed
• Procured 25 new locomotives from General Electric (GE)
• Refurbished over 200 Coaches and Wagons
• Investment incentive MoU with GE to develop a Multi Modal Locomotive Assembly Facility in Nigeria to handle an initial 200 locomotives over 10 years.
• Number of Passengers Carried by rail has risen significantly, from about 1 million in 2009 to about 4.2 million in 2012.
RAIL
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INLAND WATERWAYSDredging of Lower River Niger from Baro in Niger State to Warri in Delta State (72km) has made possible all year round Navigation.
Construction of Inland Ports
• Onitsha Port completed and commissioned – to be concessioned out later this year
• Baro Port under construction – to be completed this year
• Oguta Port under consideration. Also expected to be completed this year
Results
• Volume of cargo in the inland waterways has risen from 2.9 Million Metric Tonnes in 2011 to 4.03 Million Metric Tons in 2012
• Number of Passengers travelling en route inland waterways increased from 250,000 in 2011 to 1.3 million in 2012
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AVIATION1) Overhaul of the Airport Infrastructure
• Embarked on the remodeling exercise of the terminal infrastructure in all 22 airports across the
country in two phases (75% complete)
o Impact: Improved passenger experience
• Upgraded the air navigational aids/equipment and integrated control tower modernization.
These include Aeronautical Information Service (AIS) Automation, Total Very High Frequency
Radio Coverage, World Geodetic Survey-84 Survey, VSAT network and Fibre Optics Rings
o Impact: State-of-the-art equipment for safe air navigation, weather observation and
forecasting.
2) Introduction of the Aerotropolis Concept & Development of the Business Model
• Will create direct and indirect job employment opportunities for up to 500,000 Nigerians
• Increase foreign direct investment
• Opens Nigeria as a gateway for economic activities and creation of megacities in locations
AVIATION (contd…)3) Review of Existing Policies to Enhance Safety, Economic and Commercial Activities
in the Aviation Sector
• Review and launch of the Nigerian Civil Aviation Policy (also includes economic commercial regulation of domestic airlines, introduction of policies for general/business aviation - private jet/helicopter, maintenance repair & overhaul facilities)
• Removal of import duties and charges on aircrafts and spare parts
4) Development of Perishable Cargo Facilities
• Designated 6 airports in proximity to food baskets as perishable cargo airports- Jos, Makurdi, Yola, Jalingo, Lagos and Ilorin.
• Developing international standard perishable cargo facilities at these designated airports.
• Established a new Cargo development Division in FAAN to give focus to this effort
• The Government ended 4 decades of corruption in the seed and fertilizer sectors within 90 days
• Ended direct procurement and distribution of seed and fertilizers to farmers. GES system saved the Federal Government ₦25 billion ($156 million) in 2012
• Private sector seed and fertilizer companies now sell directly to farmers. ₦15 billion ($100 million) of fertilizers sold and ₦1.5 billion ($10 million) of seeds sold directly via e-wallet system
2. Growth Enhancement Support (GES) Scheme with E-WALLET
• Cellphone-based system developed to send subsidies via electronic vouchers (e-wallets) directly to farmers via their cellphones
• First ever database of farmers developed; 4.2 million farmers registered and now being updated/ monitored annually (KYC)
• Nigeria is 1st country in Africa to develop the E-wallet for input delivery to farmers
3. Rice Revolution Takes off
• Dry season production through irrigation in ten Northern States (Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Gombe, Niger, Kogi and Bauchi) resulted in output of 1.07 Million Metric Tonnes by about 268, 000 farmers.
• Total combined production of Dry Season and Main Season paddy is 1.76 Million Metric Tonnes
• 13 New Rice Mills with a total capacity of 240,000 MT have been set up by the private sector
• Nigeria is on target for Self Sufficiency in Rice
AGRICULTURE
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4. Cassava Revolution Takes Off
• Developing Cassava value chains for new value-add products (high quality cassava flour, cassava chips, ethanol, starch, sweeteners) through private companies:
o Starch processing: Cargill, Crest Agro Products (Both within the Kogi State Crop Processing Zone)
o Cassava Starch to Sobitol: Unilever, Ingredion
o Cassava for Beer Products: SAB Miller
• Expanded production of high quality cassava flour (HQCF) to substitute imported wheat in the baking industry (commercialized 20% use of HQCF in bread)
• Secured 3.2 million MT contract orders from China for export of dried cassava chips for Ethanol production.
5. Food Production Rises and Expected Food Crisis Due to 2012 Floods Averted
• 8 million MT of Food added to domestic food supply in 2012, 70% above target
• Food crisis from 2012 flood averted
6. Attracted Private Sector Investors to Agriculture
• Over $8 billion of private investment commitments indicated and deployed in agribusiness ventures
• Attracted large indigenous and global multinational firms like Flour Mills of Nigeria, Dangote Group, Syngenta, Indorama, AGCO, and Belstar Capital
AGRICULTURE (contd…)
TARGET OF 3.5 MILLION JOBS BY 2015
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MANUFACTURING• Given our large domestic market, policy is to encourage import substitution, where
we have a comparative advantage, and exports, where we can be competitive internationally
• Development of National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP) with focus on the entire value chain of sub-sectors like agro-processing (e.g. rice milling, sugar procession, cassava for wheat flour and other products, etc.), consumer goods manufacturing, cement, textiles, and petrochemicals).
• Completed the development of a Sugar Master Plan (NSMS) to provide roadmap for 100% local production of sugar
• Attained the position of an exporter of cement instead of a net importer. With no import permit issued in the whole of 2012 for cement importation, a savings of over N200 billion was made.
• Transformation of the Onne Oil and Gas Free zone with $6 billion invested leading to the attraction of 150 companies into the zone with 30,000 jobs created to date
• Promoting foreign investments in manufacturing e.g. Indorama’s $1.2 billion fertilizer plant at Onne, Procter & Gamble’s $250 million consumer goods plant in Ogun State, SAB Miller’s $100 million brewery at Onitsha.
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Government Policy is To Provide Nigerians Access to Affordable Housing
• The FG (through National Housing Fund) built more than 61,800 housing units in the six geopolitical zones to provide affordable and quality houses.
• Increasing Access to Mortgage Finance through a Mortgage Refinance Company (MRC). To be launched between July – August 2013. Mortgages available starting 2014.
• MRC will be a PPP arrangement with shareholders that will include Government, International DFIs, Nigerian Banks and Insurance Companies.
• MRC to enable up to 200,000 affordable mortgages within 5 years.
• World Bank to support Government with investment of up to $300 million at zero interest, 40 year loan, 10 years grace, and 0.7% commitment charge, which will help lower costs, especially interest rates.
HOUSING
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Government created for the first time a new Ministry of Communication Technology to champion Reform
• Increasing the Ease of Doing Business for Telecom Services Providers:
o Streamlined Application for building infrastructure. Applications now processed within 30 days; right of way reduced from ₦ 5 million to ₦145,000.
o Reduced multiple taxation on operators.
o Strong government support to and licensing of mobile companies
As a Result:
• Mobile phone subscriptions have increased:
o In 2004, only 8.5% of the population had access to mobile phones, but this will increase to 92.75% in 2013.
• Access to internet is rising. 38% of Nigerians now have access, compared to 34% at the end of 2012.
o As a result, more of government services (e.g. passport) are being delivered online (to the convenience of Nigerians)
o Government is now delivering around 50 services online, compared with 30 at the end of 2012.
• Promising local employment opportunities:
o 1800 individuals registered in micro work/e-lance initiative equating to $121,000 new revenues.
o Online shopping habit in Nigeria is gradually gaining momentum. Online vendors, e.g. Konga.com, and Jumia.com which reports about 100,000 unique visitors each day. Value of online shopping grew 25% to ₦62.4 billion in 2011 from ₦49.9 billion in 2010
• Quality of service remains a problem and we are encouraging more investment by the companies to tackle this problem.
ICT
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In line with the National Strategic Health Development Plan, the Ministry of Health has outlined a Vision to Save One Million Lives and improve the Quality of care in Health Facilities by 2015
1) Improved Access to Primary Health
a) Under the “Save One Million Lives” initiative, over 433,650 lives were saved in 2011 and 2012 by scaling up 6 cost-effective interventions including Maternal & Child Health, Nutrition, Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, Provision of Essential
Commodities, Malaria Control, Routine Immunization / Eradication of Polio.
b) Maternal and Child Health (SURE-P):
• A total of 9243 frontline health workers have been recruited, trained and deployed.
• 1500 primary healthcare facilities have been refurbished and supplied with the essential commodities.
• Maternal mortality has dropped by more than 50% in Midwives Service Scheme (MSS) facilities from 2009 to 2012.
• Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Scheme.
o Launched in May 2013, 172 female beneficiaries have received cash transfers totaling ₦206,900 from the first pilot Primary Health Centre.
o Eight States (Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Kaduna, Niger, Ogun, and Zamfara) to roll out CCT Programme as from June 2013.
2) Improving Tertiary Healthcare
• Several teaching hospitals and medical centers have been rehabilitated and modernized e.g. OAU and UNIBEN Teaching Hospitals. But key push is for Private Sector to provide world-class institutions for Nigerians and stop medical visits abroad.
HEALTH
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Policy is to get 10.6 million “OUT-OF-SCHOOL” children “IN-SCHOOL”, and improve Quality of Education and Access at all levels.
Government has a long way to go but the journey has begun.
1) Promoting Access to Affordable Education & Improving Quality
• 1-year Early Child Education institutionalized as part of the education system to enhance access and quality of learning outcome
• Construction of 124 Almajiri Schools to reduce the number of out-of-school children in the North.
• Construction of special girls school in 13 states of the Federation has began to improve girls education program.
• Establishment of 12 new universities to enhance access to a Federal University in all states.
• Significant improvement in students performance in public examinations from 23% in 2010 to 39% in 2012 for WAEC and 9% in 2010 to 31% in 2012 for NECO
2) Special Intervention
• Establishment of a High Impact Fund to support higher institutions of learning to become Centers of Excellence in specific areas. Each selected University gets ₦3 Billion; Polytechnics and Colleges of Education ₦1 Billion
• Awarded a total of 101 Presidential Special Scholarships for Innovation and Development (PRESSID) to beneficiaries for training in top 25 universities in the world.
• Attention is turning to Vocational Training for Plumbers, Carpenters, Technicians and Artisans
EDUCATION
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• From the Presidential Sports Retreat following Nigeria’s poor performance at the Summer Olympics 2012 (though our Paralympians made us proud with 12 medals), Policy is to support our sports men and women with better sports governance, finance, training facilities for Nigeria to excel in international and domestic competitions.
• Focused on:
o Developing new framework for sustainable sports financing in Nigeria (with Private Sector participation), including use of Lottery Funds
o Instituted a new three-tier disbursement system for funding sporting activities across grassroots and elite sports programs
o Received Presidential approval to recruit a National High Performance Director to head a High Performance Directorate set up within in NSC.
o Developed Rhythm N’Play as the national mobilization campaign for grassroots sports in Nigeria
o Ongoing infrastructure rehabilitation e.g. for National Stadium
• The Results are:
o Super Eagles won 2013 Africa Cup of Nations after 19 years.
o The Golden Eaglets finished 2nd at the U-17 African Championship in Morocco
o The Flying Eagles finished 3rd at U-20 African Championship in Algeria
o Nigeria placed 1st at the 2012 Senior African Athletics Championship in Port Novo and emerged overall winner with 10 Gold, 6 Silver and 5 Bronze
SPORTS
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CREATIVE INDUSTRIES
• Key Reform Focus is to Develop:
o Policies to protect intellectual property
o Fiscal measures such as tax or duty waivers
• Infrastructure Support:
o Culture and Tourism Ministry completed the construction and equipment of three new Cultural Industry Centers in each of Taraba, Ogun, and FCT
o Completed the rehabilitation of the National Theatre
• Special Initiatives:
o Mr. President announced Project Advancing Creativity and Technology (ACT) Nollywood - ₦3 billion grant program for Nollywood.
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In addition to Sectoral Initiatives, Government
Direct Job Creation Initiatives are Delivering…
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Youth Enterprise with Innovation in Nigeria (YouWiN!) Program
YouWiN! Results
• Trained 12,000 aspiring or existing young entrepreneurs. • Presently funding 1,200 entrepreneurs identified in the first round of the three round
competition• Identified 1,200 women in May 2013 across the six geopolitical zones to receive funding
in the second round• As at March 2013, a total of 12,108 jobs have been created across the country in the
early stages of the first round. At least 80,000 jobs expected by the end of the third round in 2015.