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Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI)

Land, livelihoods and housing Programme 2015-18 Working Paper The Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) is a centre of the Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences (FNRSS) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), committed to developing reputable and multidisciplinary research and public outreach activities in the fields of land administration, property, architecture, and spatial planning. The Land, Livelihoods and Housing Programme aims at deepening and expanding the focus on these three key issues in Namibia. This thematic approach seeks to reflect the wide-ranging skills exiting at the FNRSS, and was developed to guide ILMI’s activities during the 2014-18 period. The programme is organised in four aspects: institutional, environmental, fiscal and spatial processes.

May 2018 Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) 13 Storch Street Private Bag 13388 Windhoek Namibia T: +264 61 207 2483 F: +264 61 207 9483 E: [email protected] W: ilmi.nust.na

Working Paper No. 8 Assessment of

Housing Needs in Namibia

Kristofina Asino Department of Architecture and Spatial Planning

Namibia University of Science and Technology

Åse Christensen Department of Land and Property Sciences

Namibia University of Science and Technology

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The current paper derives from work conducted in the context of the Revision of the Mass Housing Development Programme (MHDP) that the Ministry of Urban and Rural Development (MURD) commissioned to the Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST). The paper contains only publicly-available information and was prepared for public dissemination of issues related to the work undertaken for the Ministry in the context of this project. More information about this project can be found on http://newmasshousing.nust.na/ The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance and support provided by the research assistants who played an important role in gathering the data and information, which constitutes the foundation for the analysis. The research assistants are: Rymoth Mbeha, Memory Mudabeti, Charisma Shipena, and Herman Elvido.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS Kristofina Asino is a lecturer at the Department of Architecture and Spatial Sciences at NUST. She has national and international professional experience in the field of urban and regional planning. She previously worked as a Town Planner for both the Queensland’s Department of Transport and Main Roads in Australia and Municipality of Walvis Bay in Namibia. She holds a BSc in Community and Regional Planning from Iowa State University, a Master in Urban and Regional Planning from the University of the Free State, and is currently a PhD candidate at the University of Pretoria. She is also an active member of the Namibia Institute of Town and Regional Planners. Her areas of expertise within the field of urban and regional planning are broad and include housing. She can be reached at [email protected] Åse Christensen is a lecturer at the Department of Land and Property Sciences. She holds an MSc in Surveying, Planning and Land Management from Aalborg University in Denmark. She has worked in the field of tenure security, slum upgrading, socio-economic analyses, and has worked in the development of the Flexible Land Tenure System (FLTS) in Namibia. She has coordinated projects in collaboration with various international organisations, such as the World Bank (WB), Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), Norwegian Government (StatensKartverk - Norad). She has ample experience working internationally in development projects as well as a consultant for local and international organisations. She can be reached at [email protected] ____© 2018 ILMI – Integrated Land Management Institute ISBN 978-99916-55-69-7 ILMI is a research centre at the Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences (FNRSS) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST). Views expressed by the authors are not to be attributed to any of these institutions. Please visit our website for details on ILMI’s publications policy: http://ilmi.nust.na

ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia

ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 1

DEFINITIONSTheDefinitionsstatedbelowareaspertheNamibianStatisticsAgency2001PopulationandHousingCensusReport(CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission,2003,p.85)ifnototherwisereferenced.

TERM DEFINITIONCommercialorIndustrialFlats:

Livingpremises,whicharealsousedforcommercialorindustrialpurposes.Thatisahousingunitthatisalsopartlyusedasabottlestoreorasupermarket,oraworkshop,iscategorisedasacommercialorindustrialflats.

DetachedHouse: Ahouseonitsownandnotattachedtoanotherhouse.

EconomicallyActivePopulation:

Theeconomicallyactivepopulationiscomposedofemployedandunemployedpersonsintheworkingage(15yearsandabove),alsoreferredtoasthelabourforce(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012b,p.13).

Flat: Aself-containedlivingpremiseinabuildingwithoneormorefloors,andwithcommonentrances.Flatisusedinterchangeablywith“apartment.”

GeneralValuationRoll:

Alegaldocumentthatconsistsofpropertyinformationofallrateablepropertieswithintheboundariesofamunicipality(CityofJohannesburg,2007,p.1).InNamibiaitisproducedaccordingtolegislationatleastevery5years(GovernmentoftheRepublicofNamibia,1992,para.66(2))containsi.e.nameofowner,size,extentandtotalvalueoftheproperty.Valueoflandandvalueofimprovementsareshownseparately(GovernmentoftheRepublicofNamibia,1992,para.67(1)(d)).

GuestFlat: Aself-containedlivingpremiseinthesamecompoundasadetachedhouse.

Household: Apersonorgroupofpersons,relatedorunrelated,livingtogetherinthesamehouse/dwelling.Theyhavethesamecateringarrangementsandareanswerabletothesamehouseholdhead(CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission,2003,p.81).

Housing: Anyshelter,lodgingordwellinghouseordwellingunit,residentialland,etc.

HousingBacklog: Ahousingbacklogistheunderprovisioninhousingthathasaccumulatedagainstpreviouslyplannedtargets(CornwallCouncil,2013,p.1)orunfulfilleddemand.

ImprovisedHousing: Housingunitsbuiltofdiscardedmaterials(suchascardboards,plasticsheeting,flattenedemptytins,etc.),corrugatedironroofingsheets,derelictvehiclespartsandcarts,clayormud,cowdung,etc.;butthatarenottraditionalhousing.

MobileHomes: Livingpremisesthatbemovedortransferredortransported,suchastents,caravans,etc.

Semi-DetachedHouse: Ahousethatisattachedtoanotherbutwithitsownfacilitiesandaseparateentrance.

SingleQuarters: Aroomorasetofroomswithsharedtoiletandkitchenfacilities,andcommonlyleasedbytheoccupantsorresidents.

SuitableHousing:

Housingthatisfitforhumanhabitation(suchasdetachedhouse,semi-detachedhouse,flats,guestflats,commercialorindustrialflats,traditionaldwelling,etc.Suitablehousingexcludessinglequarters,improvisedhousing(suchasshacks)andanyothertypesofhousingnotsuitableforhumanhabitation.

TraditionalDwelling: Housingthatcomprisesofahutoragroupofhutswalledorun-walledwithsticks,poleswithorwithoutthatchorgrass.

UnsuitableHousing: Housingthatisnotfitforhumanhabitationsuchasshacks.



1. IntroductionTheneedforurbanhousingdependshighlyonthenumberofpeoplelivingintownsandcities.Globallythenumberofpeopleisincreasingrapidlyanditisestimatedthatby2030thepopulationwillbearound9billionrisingto11billionby2050(Rizvi,2016).Atthesametimeurbanisationratesarehighanditisexpectedthattwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulationwillbelivinginurbanareasin2030andofwhicharound50%“willbelivinginpoverty,insubstandardhousingorinslums”(Rizvi,2016)duetoashortageintheprovisionofaffordableservicedland.ThisglobaltrendisalsonoticeableinmanyAfricancountrieswhicharefacingmassiveurbanisationandthusputtingevenmorepressureonthehousingdemandwhichcomesinadditiontothealreadyexistinghighbacklogonaffordablehousing.ThisisalsothescenarioinseveralurbanareasinNamibia.AccordingtotheNamibiaNationalHousingPolicy(NHP),housingisoneoftheNamibiangovernment’sdevelopmentpriorities(MinistryofRegionalandLocalGovernment,HousingandRuralDevelopment,2009,p.4).TheNHPfurtheroutlinesthatitistheroleofthegovernmenttoensureaninclusivedevelopmentprocessandtomakeprovisionforpeopleexcludedfromtheformalhousingmarkettoaccessland,housingandservices.TheNHPacknowledgesthatempowermentoflocalruralandurbancommunitiesaswellasindividualsdependsonpropertyrightsandpeople’saccesstocreditbymakinguseoftheirpropertiesassets.TheNHPfurthersuggestsanintegratedapproachtohousing,includingbothruralandurbandevelopment,whileaimingat“creatingsustainablehumansettlements”(MinistryofRegionalandLocalGovernment,HousingandRuralDevelopment,1991,p.4).Thevisionisthat“[b]y2017,Namibiawillhavearobustandeffectivehousingdeliveryprogrammewhereaffordabilityisthekeyfeatureoftheprogramme;andthat60%ofhouseholdswillbelivinginmodernhouses”(OfficeofthePresident,NationalPlanningCommission,2012,p.xvi).Despitenationalintentionstoenhancehousinginfrastructure,thenumberofpeoplelivinginsubstandardhousingininformalsettlementsisonanincrease,duetovariouschallenges.ThemainchallengesintheNamibianhousingsectorareexorbitantpricespartlyduetomismatchesbetweenthedemandforandthesupplyofhousing.AccordingtotheNationalPlanningCommission(NPC),therehasalsobeenalackofgovernmentalfundingforhousingprogrammesforthelow-incomeandmiddle-incomegroups.AstudycarriedoutbytheBankofNamibia(BoN)in2011concludedthataround70%ofNamibiansareexcludedfromcreditaccessandthus“cannotaccessurbanfreeholdlanddueto,amongstothers,limiteddisposableincome,povertyandexclusionfromconventionalhomeloanfacilities”(BankofNamibia,2011,p.19).Country-wide,thereareissueswiththeprovisionofsufficientland,andparticularlyinurbanareasthereisashortageofaffordableland.Theurbanpopulationhasincreasedfrom28%in1991to42%in2011(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a,p.38)andiscurrentlyestimatedtobearound50%.AccordingtoastudybytheBankofNamibiathecountryhadahousingbacklogof300,000unitsin2011withanincreasefrom80,000unitsin2007(BankofNamibia,2011,p.12).Theincreaseinthehousingbacklogisamplifiedbythefactthatthereisadecreaseintheaveragehouseholdsizenationwide,from5.1in2001to4.4in2011(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a,pp.39&44).Thedecreaseinhouseholdsizecombinedwiththeincreaseinpopulationputsmorepressureonthedemandforhousing.Notwithstandingthedecreaseinaveragehouseholdsize,themainshortageofhousingisamongsthouseholdsearninglessthanNAD5,000permonth(Chiripanhura&Jauch,2015,p.9).ThehousingrelatedissuesoutlinedabovecallforananalysisofthecurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibiainordertoestimatethefutureneedforhousing.However,currentlythereisnomethodologicalapproachthatisbeingusedbylocalorregionalornationalgovernmentsinNamibiatoestimatethenumberofhouseholdsrequiredoveracertainperiod.Somelocalauthoritiesbasedthehousingneedsontheapplicationstheyreceiveforresidentialland.However,thisisnotgoodenoughsincethenumberofcurrentapplicantsdoesnotincludetheprojectedhouseholdswhohavenotyetappliedforresidentialland(orhousing).Hence,thisreportanalysesthehousingassessmentmethodologicalapproachesusedbyotherauthoritiesoutsideNamibiaandappliesoneofthoseapproachestoassessthehousingneedsinNamibia.



2 HousingNeedsAssessment

2.1 HousingNeedsDefinitionTherearevariousdefinitionsofhousingneeds.AccordingtoHeath(2014),housingneedscanbedefinedasanormativenotion,whichfocusesongroupsofpeoplewithnoaccesstohousingofacceptablestandards.Heathdefinedhousingneedsas“thenumberofhouseholdsthatdonothaveaccesstoaccommodationthatmeetscertainnormativestandards”.

2.2 HousingNeedsCategoriesDespitethedifferentdefinitionsthatexist,housingneedscanbecategorisedintotwogroups,beingneed-as-aspirationandneed-as-demand(PeterBrettAssociates,2015).Housingneed-as-aspirationdependsonindividualpreferences,anditisthusanindividual’sbehaviouralresponsetohisorherhousingsituation(Steele,2010andOpoko,Ibem&Adeyemi,2015).Thisisattainedbyrelocatingoralteringexistinghousingenvironment.Thehousingneed-as-aspirationcreatesamuchlargernumberofhousingneedscomparedtothehousingneed-as-demand.However,housingneed-as-aspirationhassomepracticalimplicationsforplantargetsandlandallocations.Ontheotherhand,housingneed-as-demandreferstothe“scaleandmixofhousingandtherangeoftenuresthatislikelytobeneededinthehousingmarketareaovertheplanperiod[which]caterforthehousingdemand[…]andidentifythescaleofhousingsupply”(PeterBrettAssociates,2015,p.41).Hence,inthecontextofthisreport,thehousingneedassessmentfocusesonthehousingneed-as-demand.

2.3 HousingNeedsAssessmentMethodologicalApproachesTherearevariousmethodologicalapproachesforassessinghousingneedsinacountry,regionorlocalarea.Determinationofthehousingneedsisthereforenotaprecisescience,asthereisnospecificapproachthatcandeliveradefinitiveanswer.Despitenumerousmethodologicalapproaches,thissectionreviewstwoapproachesthatcanpotentiallybeusedtoestablishhousingneedsinNamibia.TheseareLeung’sNeed-GapAnalysisandtheUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA).



2.3.1 Leung’sNeed-GapAnalysisThehousingneedsassessmentcanbeundertakeninaccordancewithusingtheNeedGapAnalysisapproach.AccordingtoLeung(2003),aNeed-GapAnalysisisanexercisethatdetermineshowmuchlandisrequiredtoaccommodatehousingneedsinacityortown.SuchanalysisistobecarriedoutbyfollowingthestepsoutlinedinFigure1below:

Figure1:Need-GapAnalysisSource:Leung,2003.

1. ESTABLISH HOUSING NEED FOR SOME FUTURE PERIOD(a) Estimate future population & its demographic profile.

(b) Translate population into number of households by household size & type.(c) Translate the number of households into number of dwelling units by dwelling

size and housing type.

2. EXAMINE THE EXISTING HOUSING STOCK IN TERMS OF HOUSING TYPE & NUMBER

That is, determine the number of existing dwelling units, by size and type.

3. COMPARE THE FINDINGS OF HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING STOCK TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF NEW DWELLINGS NEEDED

Calculate the Basic Need-Gap: 1(c) – 2

4. CALCULATE THE REASONABLE NEED-GAP(a) Basic Need plus obsolescence, demolition, abandonment, renewal, invasions by

other uses, loss due to fire and other catastrophes, and allowance for vacancies.(b) Calculate the Need for new housing construction: Need-Gap minus housing units

created by conversion and rehabilitation.



2.3.2 UnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessmentTheUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA)isconductedbyfollowingthefourstagesoutlinedbyFigure2(DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment,2007).

Figure2:HousingNeedsAssessmentMethodologicalApproachSource:DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment,2007.

STAGE 1: DETERMINE THE CURRENT

HOUSING NEED:• Determine the number of

households currently in need of housing.

• Determine the number of households lacking suitable housing and cannot afford such housing in the market sector.

STAGE 2: DETERMINE CURRENT

AND FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY

STAGE 3: DETERMINE THE FUTURE HOUSING NEED OVER A

PLAN PERIOD:• Determine current and

future need, and subtract it from current and future housing supply.

STAGE 4: DETERMINE ANNUAL HOUSING NEED PER

PERIOD:• Converting total housing

need to annual flow.



3 MethodologicalApproachforHousingNeedsAssessmentinNamibiaThereisnospecificmethodologicalapproachthatisbeingusedbygovernmentsatlocal,regionalornationallevelsinNamibiatodeterminehousingneeds.Inviewofthis,thisstudyutilisestheU.K.’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’shousingneedsassessmentsequentialapproachasoutlinedinSection2ofthisreport,bydetermining:currenthousingneedsinNamibia;currentandfuturehousingsupplyinNamibia;futurehousingneedovertheplanperiodinNamibia;andannualhousingneedsperperiodinNamibia.Leung’sNeed-GapAnalysiscouldnotbeusedinassessingthehousingneedsinNamibia,duetolimiteddatathatisrequiredtofactorintotheanalysis.

3.1 Stage1:DeterminetheCurrentHousingNeedsThisstageinvolvesdeterminingtheexistingnumberofthehouseholdswhoarecurrentlyinneedofhousing.Thesearethehouseholdswhoeitherresideinunsuitablehousingand/orwhocannotaffordhousingintheformalmarketsector.Inthecontextofthisreport,unsuitablehousingisdefinedbythefollowingcriteria:

•ImprovisedHousing(includesshacks);•MobileHousingsuchascaravanortent;•SingleQuarterHousing,and•Othertypesofhousingnotmentionedabove(excludingdetachedandsemi-detachedhousing,townhouses,flats,flatsinacommercialorindustrialarea).

3.2 Stage2:DeterminetheCurrentandFutureHousingSupply(a) CurrentHousingSupplyThisstageestablishesthecurrentandfuturesupplyofhousing.Thecurrenthousingsupplyisdeterminedfromthecurrentresidentialvacanterven(asperthelatestGeneralEvaluationRollsfromlocalauthorities).Inparticular,thenumberofvacanterventhatarezonedas“SingleResidential”or“Residential”or“GeneralResidential”or“Residential2andabove”havebeencompiledtodeterminethecurrentavailablevacantresidentialerven.Itisimportanttotakeintoaccountthedensityzoningof“GeneralResidential”or“Residential2andabove”zonederven,becausethesetypesofervencaterforhigh-densityresidentialdevelopmentsandthuscanaccommodatemorethanonedwellingunit.However,thedensityzoningsforthehighresidentialdensityervencouldnotbeobtainedfromlocalauthorities.Intheabsenceofthedensityzoningsoftheaforementionederven,intermsofthisstudy,suchervenwereevaluatedasstandarderventhatcanonlyaccommodateonedwelling.(b) FutureHousingSupplyThefuturehousingsupplywasderivedfromthetotalnumberofavailableresidentialland(servicedandun-serviced).ThetotalnumberofavailableresidentiallandparcelswasobtainedfromsomelocalauthoritiesandfromtheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment’sMassiveUrbanLandServicingProjectReport(DraftImplementationPlan)dated2016.



Ofthoseservicedorun-servicedresidentiallandparcelsthatmakeupthe“futurehousingsupply”,someofthelandparcelshave:

•onlybeenapprovedbyCouncil,butnotapprovedbytheMinisterofUrbanandRuralDevelopment(throughtheNamibiaPlanningAdvisoryBoardand/ortheTownshipsBoard);•beenapprovedbythetwoaforesaidboards,butnotyetbeensurveyed;•beensurveyedbutnotyetregisteredbytheRegistrarofDeeds;and•gonethroughalltheplanningprocesses,wherebyapprovalhavebeengrantedbyCouncilsandthetwoboards,thesurveyinghasbeenconcludedanddiagramsorgeneralplanshavebeenapprovedbytheSurveyorGeneralandthepropertieshavebeenregisteredintheDeedsOffice.

(c) OverallHousingSupplyThecurrentandfuturehousingsupply,asdeterminedinsections(a)and(b)above,werethereafteraddedtogethertogettheoverallhousingsupplyperregion.Althoughtheoverallhousingsupplyisforallregions,notalllocalauthoritiesorvillagecouncilshaveavailabledataontheircurrentandfuturehousingsupply.Furthermore,theruralareasthatarenotyetproclaimedasvillagecouncilsorsettlementsareexcludedfromthecalculationsduetotheunavailabilityofdata.

3.3 Stage3:DeterminetheFutureHousingNeedsOverthePlanPeriodThedeterminationofthefuturehousingneedsovertheplanperiodinvolvesprojectingthetotalnumberofneededhousingovertheplanperiod.Inprojectingthefuturehousingneeds,threeperiodsareused,namely:

• ShortTerm: 2017–2020;• MediumTerm: 2021–2030;and• LongTerm: 2031–2041.

Theyear2011isusedasabaseyear,becausethehouseholddatausedisbasedonthe2011CensusData.The“currenthousingneeds”identifiedinStage1isaddedtothe“futurehousing”needsforthe2017-2020periodtodeterminetheactualhousingneedsforthe2017-2020period.

3.4 Stage4:DeterminetheAnnualHousingNeedsperPeriodThetotalhousingneedsfortheplanperiodisconvertedintoanannualflowperperiod.

4. ResultsofHousingNeedsAssessmentinNamibiaTheresultsoftheassessmentofhousingneedsinNamibiaareoutlinedbytheproceedingsections.ThiswasundertakenusingthesecondarydataderivedfromtheNamibiaStatisticsAgency’scensusdata,theGeneralValuationRollsofvariouslocalauthoritiesinNamibia,aswellasfromtheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment’sMassiveUrbanLandServicingProjectReportdated2016,



4.1 CurrentHousingNeedsinNamibiaInordertoestablishthe“currenthousingneeds”itisfirstvitaltodeterminetheexistingandprojectednumberofhouseholds,andhouseholdtypesinNamibia.Ahouseholdisdefinedasagroupofrelatedorunrelatedpeoplewholiveinthesamedwellingunitandsharecateringarrangements(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a).

4.1.1 ExistingandProjectedNumberofHouseholdsinNamibiaThenumberofhouseholdsperregioninNamibiain2001and2011werederivedfromthe2011Census.Ontheotherhand,thenumberofprojectedhouseholdsfrom2016-2041iscalculatedusingthegeometricgrowthprojectionmethodusingtheyear2011asthebaseyear.Ageometricchangemethodisappropriatewhenitisexpectedthat‘’apopulationwillchangebythesamepercentagerateoveragivenincrementoftimeinthefutureasduringthebaseperiod”(George,Smith,Swanson,&Tayman,2004,p.566).Geometricprojectionscanbecalculatedusingthefollowingformula: Pn=Po(1+r) Where:

Poisthetotalnumberofhouseholdsin2011.tistheperiodoftime,inyears(being9,19&30yearsfor2020,2030&2041respectively).ristheannualrateofincrease.Pnisthetotalnumberofhouseholdsattheendofeachperiod(2020,2030or2041).

Table1showsthattheKhomasRegionhasthehighestnumberofhouseholds,withabout121,700householdsin2017.ThesecondandthirdregionswiththehighestnumberofhouseholdsareErongoandOmusatiRegionswithover50,000householdsin2017.

Table1:NumberofTotalHouseholdsperRegion

Region 2001* 2011* 2016** 2017** Omaheke 12,590 16,174 9,551 19141

Hardap 15,039 19,307 22,207 22837 Zambezi 16,839 21,283 24,244 24883

Kavango East 15,406 18,011 19,586 19917 Kavango West 15,061 18,730 21,125 21640

ǁKaras 15,481 20,988 24,996 25885 Ohangwena 35,958 43,723 48,652 49703

Oshana 29,557 37,284 42,419 43528 Omusati 38,202 46,698 52,127 53286 Kunene 12,489 18,495 23,391 24516

Otjozondjupa 25,338 33,192 38,665 39864 Oshikoto 28,419 37,400 43,695 45076 Erongo 27,496 44,116 59,161 62737 Khomas 58,580 89,438 115,610 121700 TOTAL 346455 464839 545430 574714

*Source:NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a.

**Source:GeometricGrowthProjectionCalculation.



Thenumberofhouseholdsisexpectedtoincreaseinallregionsacrossthecountry.AsshownbyFigure3,itisprojectedthatbytheyear2020,thenumberofhouseholdsinKhomasandErongoRegionswillincreasethemostcomparedtootherregions.In2030,KhomasRegionisexpectedtohavethelargestnumberofhouseholdsinNamibiafollowedbyErongoRegion.

Figure3:ProjectedNumberofHouseholdsRegionallyandNationally

GeometricGrowthProjectionFormula:Pn=Po(1+r)Thehouseholdprojectionsfor2020,2030and2041varywidelyacrossthecountry.Thevarianceinprojectionscanbeattributedtomigrationandotherfactors.By2041theKhomas,ErongoandOshikotoRegionswillhavethehighestnumberofhouseholds,whiletheZambezi,OmahekeandHardapRegionsareprojectedtohavetheleastnumberofhouseholds.

4.1.2 HouseholdTypesinNamibiaThissectionfocusesonthecurrenthouseholdtypesinNamibia,asstatedinthe“Definitions”sectionofthisreport.TheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(2012a;2012b),identifiedthefollowingtypesofhousinginNamibia:• Detachedhouse;• Semi-detached/townhouse;• Apartment/flat,guestflat;• Flatincommercial/industrial;• Mobilehome(caravan,tent);• Singlequarters;• Traditionaldwelling;and• Improvisedhousingunit(shack).AccordingtotheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(2012a),andasshownbyFigure4,detachedandsemi-detachedhousing,andtraditionalhousingmakeup38%ofallhouseholdsinNamibia.

Omaheke Hardap Zambezi Kavango

EastKavango

West //Kharas Ohangwena Oshana Omusati Kunene Otjozon

djupaOshikot

o Erongo Khomas Total/Namibia

2017 19141 22837 24883 19917 21640 25885 49703 43528 53286 24516 39864 45076 62737 121700 574714

2020 20822 24837 26906 20945 23260 28747 52993 47032 56921 28226 43687 49486 74815 141964 640640

2030 27570 32857 34912 24768 29590 40776 65615 60879 70925 45147 59282 67547 134546 237207 931622

2041 37543 44701 46496 29785 38559 59895 82998 80864 90340 75686 82938 95113 256592 417227 1438736

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

Proj

ecte

d N

umbe

r of

Hou

seho

lds



Figure4:HouseholdTypesinNamibiaSource:NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a.

Traditionalhousingismostcommoninruralareas.Traditionaldwellingsaremostlyusedinthenorthernregions,suchasOmusati,OhangwenaandKavangoRegions.Thenumberoftraditionalhousingisalsohigherbecauseitisdeemedmoreaffordablewhenitcomestobuildingcosts.Peoplemostlyusematerialsavailableintheirvicinity,suchasclaysoilforthewalls,sticksforfoundation,hayorgrassfortheroof,dependingontheareainwhichtheylive.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthat,nowadayssomeinhabitantsinruralareasarebuildinghousesusingdurablematerialssuchascementbricks(forthewalls),cementconcretefloors,ironsheets/tilesroofslikeinurbanareas.Detachedandsemi-detachedhousingmakesupthesecondmostcommontypeofhousing,makingup44%ofthehouseholdsinNamibia.Detachedandsemi-detachedhousingarethemostpopularkindofhousinginurbanareas.Improvisedhousinghasthethirdlargestshare,being18%oftheexistinghouseholds.Improvisedhousingisfoundinallurbanareas.Thistypeofhousingemergedduetovariouscircumstances.OneofthereasonsistheslowpaceoflanddeliveryinNamibia,andsubsequentlyunavailabilityofservicedresidentialland.Anotherreasonisunaffordabilityofhousingintheformalmarketsector,whichleadpeopletoerectshacksonmainlymunicipalland.Inthecontextofthisassessment,thehouseholdtypesidentifiedbytheNamibianStaticsAgencyareconsolidatedintotwocategories,being:

•SuitableHousing–comprisingofdetachedhousing,semi-detachedhousing,townhouses,traditionalhousingandflats(includingflatsincommercialorindustrialareasandguestflats)housingtypes;and•UnsuitableHousing-comprisingofvarioushousingtypessuchasimprovisedhousing(e.g.shacks),singlequartersandmobilehousing(caravanortentedhousing),andanyothertypesofhousingnotlistedunderSuitableHousing.

SuitableandUnsuitableHousingTypesareshownbyFigure5.

Detached and Semi-Detached

38%

Flats6%

Traditional Housing

38%

Improvised Housing

18%

Others0%



Figure5:HousingCategoriesandTypes

Thehousingthatiscategorisedas“UnsuitableHousing”includeshousingsuchasshacks.Table2showsthepercentageofunsuitablehousingonaregionallevelfrom2001to2016inNamibia,basedonthe2001and2011censusdata.The2016datawasderivedfromgeometricprojectioncalculations.

Suitable Housing

Detached Housing

Semi-Detached Housing

Townhouses

Traditional Housing – traditional houses or homesteads

Flats (including flats in commercial or industrial areas and guest flats)

Unsuitable Housing(Current Need)

Improvised Housing (shacks)

Mobile homes (caravan or tented housing)

Single quarters & shacks

Others – Any other types of housing not listed



Table2:UnsuitableHouseholdsperRegioninNamibiafrom2001-2016

PERCENTAGE OF UNSUITABLE HOUSEHOLDS

NUMBER OF UNSUITABLE HOUSEHOLDS

REGION 2001* 2011* 2016** 2016 Erongo 27.0% 35.3% 41.1% 24,297 Hardap 20.2% 26.3% 30.5% 6,777 ǁKaras 21.9% 30.2% 36.4% 9,092

Kavango East 23.3% 32.1% 38.6% 7,568 Kavango West 18.6% 15.2% 13.9% 2,928

Khomas 29.4% 32.9% 34.9% 40,354 Kunene 9.8% 12.7% 14.7% 3,602

Ohangwena 4.2% 6.6% 8.7% 4,240 Omaheke 19.0% 21.5% 23.0% 2,192 Omusati 3.4% 2.7% 2.4% 1,268 Oshana 7.8% 10.4% 12.3% 5,198

Oshikoto 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 2,884 Otjozondjupa 19.0% 22.6% 24.8% 9,598

Zambezi 4.0% 15.2% 52.2% 12,662 TOTAL 134,676

*Source:DatafromNamibiaStatisticsAgency,2001and2011.

**Source:GeometricProjectionCalculationusing2001and2011censusdata.InaccordancewithTable2,theZambezi,Erongo,KavangoEast,ǁKarasKhomasandHardapRegionsaretheregionswiththehighestpercentageofunsuitablehouseholds(makingupover30%ofthetotalhouseholds),asof2016.Omusati,OshikotoandOhangwenaRegionshavethelowestpercentageofunsuitablehouseholds,beinglessthan10%ofthetotalhouseholds.Thenumberofunsuitablehousingfor2016revealsthehousingneedsfor2016.

4.1.3 PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020PeriodThehousingneedsforthecurrentperiod(beingfrom2017to2020)inNamibiawasdeterminedbyaddingthenumberofhouseholdsneeded(orunsuitablehouseholdsdepictedbyTable2)fortheyear2016totheprojectednumberofhouseholdsneededforthe2017-2020period.Table3andFigure6showthehousingneedsforthecurrentperiod.



Table3:PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020Period

REGION 2016 HOUSING NEEDS

2017-2020 PROJECTED

HOUSEHOLDS

2017-2020 HOUSING

NEEDS Erongo 24,297 15,654 39,951 Hardap 6,777 2,630 9,407 ǁKaras 9,092 3,751 12,843

Kavango East 7,568 1,359 8,926 Kavango West 2,928 2,135 5,063

Khomas 40,354 26,353 66,708 Kunene 3,602 4,835 8,437

Ohangwena 4,240 4,341 8,580 Omaheke 2,192 11,272 13,464 Omusati 1,268 4,794 6,063 Oshana 5,198 4,613 9,810

Oshikoto 2,884 5,791 8,675 Otjozondjupa 9,598 5,022 14,620

Zambezi 12,662 2,662 15,324 TOTAL 134,676 95,211 227,871

Figure6:PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020PeriodAsindicatedinFigure6,Khomas,ErongoandZambeziRegionsarethetopthreeregionswiththehighestnumberofhousingneeds.Ontheotherhand,KavangoWest,OmusatiandKuneneRegionsaretheregionswithlesshousingneedsduringthisshort-termperiod(2017-2020).

5063

6063 84

37

8580

8675

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9407

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Hard

ap

Osh

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//Kh

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ahek

e

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jupa

Zam

bezi

Eron

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f Hou

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) Nee

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4.2 CurrentandFutureLandResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia

4.2.1 Available(Current)ResidentialLandSupplyinNamibiaThecurrentresidentiallandsupplywasdeterminedusingtheGeneralValuationRolldatafromvariouslocalauthorities.Inparticular,thenumberofvacantSingleResidential(orResidential)andGeneralResidential(orResidential2or3)wascompiledfromthelocalauthorities’GeneralValuationRoll,todeterminethecurrentsupplyofresidentialland.Figure7belowshowstheavailablehousingsupplyineightofthefourteenregionsinNamibia.

Figure7:Available(Current)HousingSupplyinEightRegionsinNamibiaSource:GeneralValuationRollsofVariousLocalAuthoritiesinNamibia.

TheresearcherscouldnotobtaintheGeneralValuationRollfromsomelocalauthorities.Hence,thedataanalysedisonlybasedontheinformationobtainedfromErongoRegion(fromHentiesBayandUsakostowns),Hardap(Gochas),Omusati(Tsanditown),OshikotoRegion(OmuthiyaandTsumebtowns),OshanaRegion(Ondangwa,OngwedivaandOshakatitowns),//KarasRegion(Keetmanshooptown),Otjozondjupa(Grootfonteintown),andZambeziRegion(KatimaMulilotown).AsperFigure7,theOshikotoRegionistheregionwiththehighestnumberofvacantresidentialerven.ThisisalsoevidentinFigure8,whichdisplaysthespatialdistributionofavailableresidentialland(orhousing).

60 90 691 11

73

1379

2137

2197

2262

9899

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3000

4000

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o

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L

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Vaca

nt E

rven



Figure8:SpatialDistributionofAvailableHousingSupplyinNamibiaThetotalavailablevacantresidentiallandparcelsasobtainedfromtheeightregionsis9,899.Thisamountwillcontributelesstowardsthealleviationofthehousingbacklogof300,000asstipulatedbytheBankofNamibia(2011).

4.2.2 FutureResidentialLandSupplyinNamibiaThefutureresidentiallandsupplyisdeterminedusingthedataonun-servicedresidentialerventhattheresearchers,asmentioned,obtainedfromsomelocalauthoritiesinNamibiain2017.Additionally,thefuturelandsupplywasalsoderivedfromthedatacontainedintheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment’sMassUrbanLandServicingProject(MULSP):DraftImplementationPlan.SomeofthefutureresidentialplotshavenotyetbeenapprovedbyNamibiaPlanningAdvisoryBoard(NAMPAB)orTownshipsBoard;somehavebeenapprovedbutnotyetsurveyed;andsomehavebeenapprovedbythesaidboardsandsurveyed.Nevertheless,theinformationiscrucialindeterminingthepotentialnumberoferventhatcanbeavailedforhousingdevelopmentsinvariousregionsinNamibia.Figure9showsthetotalnumberoffuturelandsupply(i.e.futureresidentialerven)perregion.

NUMBER OF RESERVE ERVEN IN NAMIBIAFuture Reserve Erven

LegendFuture Reserve Erven

0 - 1247

1248 - 3991

3992 - 12192

12193 - 19173

Current Vacant Erven

Total Reserve Land Supply

LegendCurrent Vacant Erven

0 - 60

61 - 691

692 - 1379

1380 - 2197

2198 - 2262

LegendTotal Reserve Land Supply

0 - 1247

1248 - 3631

3632 - 7473

7474 - 12192

12193 - 20552

®

0 200 400100 Km

1:9 000 000

Reserve Erven In Graph

LegendNamibia

10 000

Future Reserve Erven

Current Vacant Erven

Total Reserve Land Supply

Kavango East

Zambezi

Khomas

Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Oshikoto

Ohangwena

Osh

ana

Kunene

Erongo

Omusati

Karas

Hardap

Kavango West



Figure9:FutureHousing(ResidentialLand)SupplyinNamibiaSource:MinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment,2016.

TheErongoRegionhasthehighestnumberoffutureresidentialplots,withatotalof19,173residentialplots.TheKhomasRegionisthesecondhighest,with12,192futureresidentialplots.TheKavangoEastandWest,andHardapRegionshavetheleastnumberofpotentialresidentialerven.NodatawasobtainedfromtheKuneneRegion.

0 949

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2248 2355

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Om

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Zam

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//Kh

aras

Osh

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o

Otjo

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Om

usat

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L

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utur

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l Erv

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4.2.3 OverallResidentialLandSupplyinNamibiaThetotallandsupplyacrossthenationisillustratedbyTable4.

REGION FUTURE

RESIDENTIAL ERVEN**

CURRENT AVAILABLE

RESIDENTIAL ERVEN*

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

LAND SUPPLY***

Kunene 0 0 0 Kavango East 949 0 949 Kavango West 1247 0 1247

Ohangwena 2248 0 2248 Hardap 2206 90 2296

Omaheke 2355 0 2355 ǁKaras 2458 1173 3631

Zambezi 2408 2197 4605 Oshikoto 3991 2262 6253

Otjozondjupa 6052 691 6743 Omusati 7413 60 7473 Oshana 8181 2137 10318 Khomas 12192 0 12192 Erongo 19173 1379 20552 TOTAL 70873 9989 80862

Table4:TotalResidentialLand(Housing)SupplyinNamibia

*Source:GeneralValuationRollfromLocalAuthorities.**Source:MinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment,2016andVariousLocalAuthoritiesinNamibia.***TotalResidentialLandSupply=CurrentAvailableResidentialErven+FutureResidentialErven.

TheErongoRegionistheregionwiththehighestnumberofthetotalnumberofresidentialland(combinedcurrentandfutureresidentialerven).WindhoekandOshanaRegionsarethesecondandthirdhighestrespectively.TheKavangoEastandWest,andOhangwenaRegionsaretheregionswithlessnumberofcombinedcurrentandfutureresidentialerven.TheKuneneRegionwasnotassessedasnodatawasavailableandtheproposednumberofresidentialervenwasobtainedfromthisregion.ThespatialdistributionofavailableresidentialervenisindicatedbyFigure10.



Figure10:SpatialDistributionofOverallResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia

4.3 DeterminingtheTotalFutureHousingNeedsinNamibia

4.3.1 Short-TermPeriodHousingNeeds:2017-2020Thefuturehousingneedsfortheshort-term(2017-2020)periodwasdeterminedbyapplyingthefollowingformula:

2017-2020 Final

Housing Needs =

2017-2020 Preliminary

Housing Needs -

Total Housing (Residential Land)

Supply Table5showstheresultsofthecalculationaspertheaforesaidformula.

TOTAL RESERVE LAND SUPPLY IN 2017

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas

Oshikoto

OmusatiKavango East

Kavango West

Zambezi

Oshana

Ohangwena

LegendTotal Reserve Land Supply

0 - 1247

1248 - 3631

3632 - 7473

7474 - 12192

12193 - 20552

®

1:5 000 000

0 200 400100 Km

Kavango East

Kavango West Zambezi

Khomas

Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Oshikoto

Ohangwena

Oshana

Kunene

Erongo

Omusati

Karas

Hardap



Table5:FinalHousingNeedsfor2017-2020Period

REGION 2017

TOTAL LAND SUPPLY

2017-2020 PRELIMINARY

HOUSING NEEDS

2017-2020 FINAL

HOUSING NEEDS

Omusati 7,473 6,063 -1,410 Oshana 10,318 9,810 -508

Oshikoto 6,253 8,675 2,422

Kavango West 1,247 5,063 3,816 Ohangwena 2,248 8,580 6,332

Hardap 2,296 9,407 7,111

Otjozondjupa 6,743 14,620 7,877 Kavango East 949 8,926 7,977

Kunene 0 8,437 8,437

ǁKaras 3,631 12,843 9,212 Zambezi 4,605 15,324 10,719

Omaheke 2,355 13,464 11,109

Erongo 20,552 39,951 19,399 Khomas 12,192 66,708 54,516

TOTAL 80,862 227,871 147,009

Accordingtothesecalculations,theOmusatiandOshanaRegionsappearascurrentlyoversuppliedwithhousing.OntheotherhandtheKhomasRegionneedsover50,000housesduringtheshortterm-period.

4.3.2 Medium&LongTermsPeriods:2021-2030and2031-2041Thefuturehousingneedsthemedium-andlong-termperiodswasdeterminedasfollows:

2021-2030 Housing Need =

2030 Housing

Projection -

2020 Housing

Projection

2031-2041 Housing Need =

2041 Housing

Projection -

2030 Housing

Projection TheresultsofthecalculationaspertheaboveformulasareshownbyTable6.



Table6:HousingNeedsforMediumandLongTermPeriods

Households Projections Medium Term

Long Term

Region 2020 2030 2041 2021-2030 2031-2041 Omaheke 20,822 27,570 37,543 6,747 9,973

Hardap 24,837 32,857 44,701 8,020 11,844 Zambezi 26,906 34,912 46,496 8,006 11,584

Kavango East 20,945 24,768 29,785 3,824 5,017 Kavango West 23,260 29,590 38,559 6,330 8,969

ǁKaras 28,747 40,776 59,895 12,028 19,119 Ohangwena 52,993 65,615 82,998 12,622 17,383

Oshana 47,032 60,879 80,864 13,847 19,985 Omusati 56,921 70,925 90,340 14,004 19,415 Kunene 28,226 45,147 75,686 16,922 30,539

Otjozondjupa 43,687 59,282 82,938 15,595 23,656 Oshikoto 49,486 67,547 95,113 18,061 27,566 Erongo 74,815 134,546 256,592 59,731 122,045 Khomas 141,964 237,207 417,227 95,243 180,020

Total/Namibia 640,640 931,622 1,438,736 290,981 507,115

4.3.3 OverallHousingNeedsinNamibiaRegionallyandNationallyTheoverallnumberofrequiredhousesnationally,duringtheshort,mediumandlongtermsareshownbyFigure11below.

Figure11:NationalHousingNeedinNamibiaintheShort,MediumandLongTermPeriodsItisevidentfromFigure11thatthenumberofrequiredhousesinNamibiawillcontinuetoescalatefrom147,009intheshorttermto507,115inthelongterm.ThecurrentoverallhousingsupplyinNamibia(ashithertostatedinTable4)is80,862dwellings,whichisjust55%oftherequired147,009

147,009

290,981

507,115

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2017-2020(Short Term)

2021-2030(Medium Term)

2031-2041(Long Term)

Tota

l No.

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ouse

hold

s N

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d Pe

r Ter

m

Period



householdsby2020.Thiscompelslocal,regionalandnationalgovernmentstobeproactiveintheprovisionofsuitablehousingtoaddressthecurrentandanticipatedhousingneeds.Apartfromtheoverallnationalneeds,itiscrucialtoexaminethedistributionofthehousingneedsonregionalbase.Figure12belowillustratestheregion-by-regionhousingneedsinNamibia.

Figure12:RegionalHousingNeedsinNamibiaAsillustratedbyFigure12above,theErongoandKhomasregionsarethetworegionswiththehighestneedsofhousingforallperiods.

4.4 AnnualFutureHousingNeedsperPeriodinNamibiaAnoteworthycomponentofthehousingneedsassessmentisthedeterminationoftheexpectedhousingneedsperyearduringtheplanperiod.Hence,itisimperativetoconverttheprojectedhousingneedsintoannualhousingneeds.Thiswillenableurbanandregionalplanners,otherprofessionalsinthebuiltenvironment,aswellaspolicyanddecisionmakerstodeterminethenumberofhousesordwellingunitsorresidentiallandparcelsthatwillberequiredeveryyearduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termperiods.Inviewofthis,theprojectedhousingneedinNamibiawasconvertedtoannualflowperregionasshownbyFigure13.

KavangoEast

KavangoWest Omusati Kunene Zambezi Oshikot

oOmahek

eOhangw

ena Hardap Oshana //Kharas

Otjozondjupa Erongo Khomas

2017-2020 8926 5063 6063 8437 15324 8675 13464 8580 9407 9810 12843 14620 39951 66708

2021-2030 3824 6330 14004 16922 8006 18061 6747 12622 8020 13847 12028 15595 59731 95243

2031-2041 5017 8969 19415 30539 11584 27566 9973 17383 11844 19985 19119 23656 122045 180020

0

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40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

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ouse

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Figure13:RegionalHousingNeedsperAnnumperPeriodThespatialdistributionsofthehousingneedsperannumforalltheregionsduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termperiodsaredepictedbyFigures14,15and16,respectively.

Kavango East

Kavango West Omusati Kunene Zambezi Oshikot

oOmahek

eOhangw

ena Hardap Oshana //Kharas

Otjozondjupa Erongo Khomas

2017-2020 1994 954 -353 2109 2680 605 2777 1583 1778 -127 2303 1969 4850 13629

2021-2030 382 633 1400 1692 801 1806 675 1262 802 1385 1203 1560 5973 9524

2031-2041 456 815 1765 2776 1053 2506 907 1580 1077 1817 1738 2151 11095 16365

-1000

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

15000

17000



Figure14:Short-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum

Figure15:Medium-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum

NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas

OshikotoOmusati Kavango West

ZambeziOhangwena

Kavango EastOshana

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas

OshikotoOmusati

Kavango East

Kavango West

ZambeziOhangwena

Oshana

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas


ZambeziOhangwena

Kavango EastOshana

2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED

Legend2017_2020

-353 - -127

-126 - 954

955 - 2777

2778 - 4850

4851 - 13629



Legend2021_2030

0 - 382

383 - 802

803 - 1400

1401 - 1806

1807 - 9524

Legend2031_2041

0 - 456

457 - 1077

1078 - 2151

2152 - 2776

2777 - 16365

®

0 200 400100 Km

1:9 000 000


Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas


ZambeziOhangwena

Kavango EastOshana

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas

OshikotoOmusati

Kavango East

Kavango West

ZambeziOhangwena

Oshana

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas


ZambeziOhangwena

Kavango EastOshana


Legend2017_2020

-353 - -127

-126 - 954

955 - 2777

2778 - 4850

4851 - 13629



Legend2021_2030

0 - 382

383 - 802

803 - 1400

1401 - 1806

1807 - 9524

Legend2031_2041

0 - 456

457 - 1077

1078 - 2151

2152 - 2776

2777 - 16365

®

0 200 400100 Km

1:9 000 000

Kavango East

Zambezi

Khomas

Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Oshikoto

Ohangwena

Oshana

Kunene

Erongo

Omusati

Karas

Hardap

Kavango West

Kavango East Kavango West

Zambezi

Khomas

Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Oshikoto

Ohangwena

Oshana

Kunene

Erongo

Omusati

Karas

Hardap



Figure16:Long-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnumThespatialdistributionsofthehousingneedsperannumillustratethattheKhomasandErongoRegionsarethetwotopregionswiththehighesthousingneedsduringshort-,mediumandlong-terms.Ontheotherhand,theOmusatiandOshanaregionshavethelowestneedsduringtheshort-term,whiletheKavangoEastRegionistheregionwithlowestnumberofhousingneedsperannumduringthemediumandlong-termperiods.Nonetheless,thehousingneedsareanticipatedtoincreasenationallyfortheshort-termperiod(2017-2020),dropdownduringthemediumperiod(2021-2030)andescalateagainduringthelong-termperiod(2031-2041).Inparticular,36,752households,29,098householdsand46,101householdswillberequiredeveryyearduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termrespectively,asshownbyFigure17below.


Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas


ZambeziOhangwena

Kavango EastOshana

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas

OshikotoOmusati

Kavango East

Kavango West

ZambeziOhangwena

Oshana

Karas

Hardap

Kunene

Erongo Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Khomas


ZambeziOhangwena

Kavango EastOshana


Legend2017_2020

-353 - -127

-126 - 954

955 - 2777

2778 - 4850

4851 - 13629



Legend2021_2030

0 - 382

383 - 802

803 - 1400

1401 - 1806

1807 - 9524

Legend2031_2041

0 - 456

457 - 1077

1078 - 2151

2152 - 2776

2777 - 16365

®

0 200 400100 Km

1:9 000 000

Kavango East

Zambezi

Khomas

Omaheke

Otjozondjupa

Oshikoto

Ohangwena

Oshana

Kunene

Erongo

Omusati

Karas

Hardap

Kavango West



Figure17NationalHousingNeedsperAnnumperPeriod

TheHarambeeProsperityPlanaimstodevelop26,000residentialparcelsnationallyby2020(OfficeofthePresident,2016).TheHarambeetargetof26,000willnotsufficientlymeettheprovisionofannualhousingneedsof36,752householdsbetween2017and2020asdepictedbyFigure17above.

5. ConclusionProvisionofsuitablehousing(includingresidentialland)isadevelopmentaldrawbackinNamibia,especiallyinurbanareaswherethereisasubstantialhousingbacklog.ThehousingscarcitycallsforananalysisoftheextentofcurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibia.Suchanalysisrequirestheapplicationofmethodologicalassessmentapproaches.However,Namibianlocal,regionalandnationalgovernmentshavenotestablishedsuchmethodologicalapproaches.Hence,thisreportassessestheurbanhousingneedsinNamibiaonregionalandnationallevelsbyemployingtheUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA).TheSHMAfollowsthesequentialmethodologicalapproachbydeterminingthecurrenthousingneeds;currentandfuturehousingsupply;futurehousingneedsoveraplanperiod(beingfrom2017to2041);andannualhousingneedsperperiod.Thisapproachwasconfrontedbydatalimitationsinthisstudy.Inparticular,somelocalauthoritiesdidnotsupplydataoncurrentandfuturehousing(includingresidentialland).Furthermore,therearenosecondarysourcesdemonstratingprojectednumberofhouseholdsinNamibia.However,thegeometricprojectionformulawasappliedtoprojectthenumberofhouseholds.Nevertheless,theresultsobtainedprovedtobeworthwhileindemonstratingtheextentofcurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibia.

36,75229,098

46,101

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2017-2020(Short Term)

2021-2030(Medium Term)

2031-2041(Long Term)

No.

of

Hous

ing

Nee

ded

Per Y

ear p

er P

erio

d

Period



Thestudy’soutcomesconfirmthattheoverallcurrentandfuturehousingsupply(includingresidentialland)asavailablein,andplannedby,localauthoritiesinNamibiais80,862.Howeverthe80,862housingsupplyonanationallevelisstilllessthantheanticipated147,009householdsthatneedtobeprovidedwithsuitablehousingbytheendof2020.Therefore,inordertoensuresuitablehousingisprovidedtomeetthecurrentdemandandprojectedhouseholdsgrowth,thefollowingnumberofhousesarerequiredtobeprovidedinNamibiaannuallyduringtheshort,mediumandlongtermperiods:36,752householdsbetween2017and2020;29,098householdsbetween2021and2031and46,101householdsbetween2031and2041.Inculmination,theSHMAapproachatteststobeavaluablemethodologicalapproachthatcanbeappliedinassessinghousingneedsinNamibia,subjecttotheavailabilityofvarioushouseholdsvariablesthatcanbefactoredintothemethodology.

6. RecommendationsThisstudybringsforwardthefollowingrecommendations:

I. TheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(NSA)shouldavaildataonprojectednumberofhouseholds,andprojectedtypesofhouseholds,inordertoenableaccurateassessmentsofhousingneedsinNamibia.II. ThelocalauthoritiesinNamibianeedtodesigndatabaseswithrecordsof:(a) availablesingleresidentiallandparcelsthatcanaccommodateoneindividualmainhousehold;(b) availablehighdensityresidentiallandparcelsthatcanaccommodatemorethanonehousehold,andthemaximumnumberofhouseholdsthatcanbeaccommodatedonsuchlandparcels;(c) projectednumberofsingleresidentialandhighdensityresidentiallandparcels(andenvisagednumberofhouseholds)basedontheirStructurePlan.

III. AsthereisnoformulaofconductinghousingneedsassessmentinNamibia,furtherresearchisneededtoestablishguidingcriteriaforhousingneedsassessmentinNamibia.Inparticular,theUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA)needstobeexploredfurthertocomprehendiftherearevariablesthatneedtobesupplementedorobliteratedtotailormaketheapproachtoNamibia’shousingneedsstandards.



7. ReferencesBankofNamibia.(2011).HousinginNamibia:HastheSituationChanged21YearsafterIndependence?

BankofNamibia:13thannualsymposium2011.Windhoek,Namibia:TheResearchDepartmentoftheBankofNamibia.Retrievedfromhttps://www.bon.com.na/CMSTemplates/Bon/Files/bon.com.na/c1/c1145421-398c-43f8-aca4-bd22e9b2de94.pdf

CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission.(2003).2001PopulationandHousing

CensusNationalReport:BasicAnalysiswithHighlights.Windhoek,Namibia:CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission.

Chiripanhura,B.,&Jauch,H.(2015).OptimisingthePotentialforJobCreationandSkillsDevelopment

throughtheMassHousingProgramme.Windhoek,Namibia:MinistryofLabourandSocialWelfare.

CityofJohannesburg.(2007).FrequentlyAskedQuestions:TheGeneralValuationRoll.Cityof

Johannesburg.Retrievedfromhttps://joburg.org.za/2007/pdfs/rates/valuation_faqs.pdf

CornwallCouncil.(2013,November1).CornwallLocalPlan:HousingEvidenceBase.HousingBacklog(orShortfall).HousingEvidenceBaseBriefingNote15.CornwallCouncil.Retrievedfromhttps://www.cornwall.gov.uk/media/3642945/BN15-Housing-Backlog-and-Shortfall-v3-Nov-13.pdf

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