KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion model) Michael Schaffner Senior Service Hydrologist NOAA National Weather Service WFO Binghamton, NY Eastern Region.

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion model)

Michael SchaffnerSenior Service HydrologistNOAA National Weather ServiceWFO Binghamton, NY

Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference

June 4, 2010

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasting for small fast responding basins

• Forecasting for large basins (i.e. mainstem rivers) has been taking place for decades.

• Forecasting for small basins is more recent and is techniques are still being developed.

What are current NWS methods of providing site specific/basin specific information in flash flood warnings?

• Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Program (FFMP)

• Site Specific rainfall-runoff models

• Headwater Guidance

• Flash Flood Guidance

FFMP vs. Site Specific Model

• This allows the forecaster to pinpoint (i.e. provide site specific information) which basins are receiving the heaviest rainfall.

• Does not allow the forecaster in most cases to determine the timing and magnitude of an event.

Available Site Specific Models

• Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model

• One-hour time steps

• Hourly Multi Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) input

• Manual hourly Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) input

Output from the Site Specific Model

The KINEROS Model: A next generation site specific model

• Is a distributed model.

• Current modeling within the NWS is generally lumped modeling. Lumped models consider the watershed as a whole.

• Distributed models take into account spatial variation in:– Drainage/channel network– Precipitation– Land use– Soil type

Above image from: http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/kineros/

Plan View

Schematic View

Composed of a cascade of overland flow planes and open channel elements.

Starting up the model

• Select initial flow rate

• Select initial soil moisture state (very dry, dry, wet, or very wet)

• Select date and time of simulation start

• Select Z-R Relationship

KINEROS Graphical User Interface (GUI)

Test Basins

Both gauged and ungaged watersheds were tested.

4 gauged and 3 ungauged KINEROS modeled points in the upper Delaware River Basin are shown.

Drainage area from 4 square miles to 241 square miles.

Platte Kill near Dunraven, NY

• 35 square miles.• Typical fast responding

small stream of the Catskill Mountains of New York State.

Typical Platte Kill Hydrographs produced by KINEROS

Platte Kill near Dunraven

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

6/26/2006

07:12

6/26/2006

09:36

6/26/2006

12:00

6/26/2006

14:24

6/26/2006

16:48

6/26/2006

19:12

6/26/2006

21:36Date and Time

Discharge (cfs)

Gage

Simulation

Platte Kill near Dunraven

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

3/7/2008

14:24

3/7/2008

16:48

3/7/2008

19:12

3/7/2008

21:36

3/8/2008

00:00

3/8/2008

02:24

3/8/2008

04:48

3/8/2008

07:12

3/8/2008

09:36

3/8/2008

12:00

3/8/2008

14:24

Date and Time

Discharge (cfs)

Gage

Simulation

Platte Kill near Dunraven

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

3/8/200812:00

3/8/200814:24

3/8/200816:48

3/8/200819:12

3/8/200821:36

3/9/200800:00

3/9/200802:24

3/9/200804:48

Date and Time

Discharge (cfs)

Gage

Simulation

Platte Kill near Dunraven

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

8/28/200619:12

8/29/200600:00

8/29/200604:48

8/29/200609:36

8/29/200614:24

8/29/200619:12

8/30/200600:00

Date and Time

Discharge (cfs)

Gage

Simulation

Beaver Kill near Cooks Falls, NY

• 241 square miles.• One of our most challenging

river forecast points due to its fast response time.

Lead Time: Beaver Kill near Cook Falls, NY

KINEROS can provide lead time of almost 3 hours on the flood crest vs. minimal lead time when compared to the typical flood warning issued.

Further lead time is possible when QPF is added.

USGS web cam image: http://ny.water.usgs.gov/rt/pub/01420500.htm

241 square mile fast responding headwater point.

Ungaged Basins

• Represent an unmet need in forecasting within the NWS.

• Data can be collected on small basins using indirect discharge methods.

• Timing of onset of flooding and peak flooding can be noted.

Callicoon Creek at Jeffersonville, NY

USGS stream gage located downstream from Jeffersonville at Callicoon.

May not be representative of flooding further upstream along the East Branch at Jeffersonville.

Callicoon Creek at Jeffersonville Watershed in KINEROS

Event Date Description

June 28, 2006 Record flood

July 29, 2009 Minor-Moderate

July 31, 2009 Minor-Moderate

August 2, 2009 ¼ Bankfull

August 9, 2009 ½ Bankfull

August 22, 2009 ½ Bankfull

Summary of Current use of KINEROS

• Used for gaged and ungaged basins.

• Peak flow forecasting for gaged basins including some headwater river forecast points.

• Peak flow forecasting for ungaged basins under the limitation of categorical forecasting.

Future Work

• Add snow model.• Add sub-surface lateral

flow.

• Test at other NWS offices. Example WFO Pittsburgh urbanized basins:

Questions / Comments?