KINDER MORGAN’S TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE WAVE #2Opinion+Pool+Wave+2.pdf · As was the case in June, ... As you learn more about the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans

Simplified Understanding

S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 4

PUBLIC OPINION POLL: KINDER MORGAN’S TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE WAVE #2

Sample Composition

The results of this survey are based on an online study conducted from September 11 to September 15, 2014, among a representative sample of 506 adults in the City of Burnaby. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age and gender. While statistical margins of error are arguably not applicable to online panels/online studies of this nature, we have assumed that the same margins of error apply as if it were a true unweighted random probability sample with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. Note: The proportion of East Asian respondents in this survey (36.5%) practically matches the targets outlined in the Canadian Census of 2011 for the City of Burnaby (36.0%)

Gender – Male 242 respondents, Female 264 respondents. Age – 18-34 151 respondents, 35-54 198 respondents, 55+ 157 respondents. Area – Metrotown 143 respondents, Edmonds 110 respondents, Lougheed 131 respondents, Brentwood 122 respondents. Ethnicity – White / Other 321 respondents, East Asian 185 respondents.

Methodology and Sample Composition

2

Simplified Understanding

DETAILED FINDINGS

Yes 93%

No 7%

Nine-in-ten Burnaby residents (93%) have heard of the proposed expansion. The high level of awareness is similar across all demographics and areas of the city.

Awareness of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline

4

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q1. Have you heard of the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline before today?

Very familiar

Somewhat familiar

Not too familiar

Not familiar at all

22%

54%

17%

7%

Three-in-four Burnaby residents (76%, +5 since June) are “familiar” with the proposed expansion. There’s a higher level of familiarity among men (83%) and residents aged 55 and over (86%). Asian respondents (65%) are less “familiar” than white respondents (83%).

Familiarity with Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline

5

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q2. How familiar are you with the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline?

Familiar 76%

Not Familiar 24%

Strongly support

Moderately support

Moderately oppose

Strongly oppose

Not sure

9%

20%

21%

42%

8%

Three-in-ten (29%, -5) support the proposed expansion, while a large majority (63%, +9) are opposed to it. “Strong” opposition clearly outnumbers strong support (42% to 9%). The highest level of opposition is observed among women (70%) and residents aged 18-to-34 (66%).

Support/Opposition to Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline

6

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q3. Given what you know about the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline, do you support or oppose the project?

Support 29%

Oppose 63%

Support 32%

Oppose 68%

Among Burnaby residents with an opinion on the proposed pipeline, opposition to the project reaches 68% (+7 since June).

Support/Opposition to Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline

7

Base: Respondents who voiced an opinion (n=465) Q3. Given what you know about the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline, do you support or oppose the project?

The City of Burnaby supports

the project 6%

The City of Burnaby opposes

the project 77%

Not sure/have not heard

17%

Three-in-four residents (77%, +14) correctly identify that the City of Burnaby is opposed to the expansion. Only 6% of residents mistakenly say that the City of Burnaby supports the project, while 17% (-11) are not sure or have not heard about this.

Awareness of the City of Burnaby’s Position

8

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q4. From what you have seen, read or heard, what is the City of Burnaby’s position on the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline?

The City of Burnaby is opposed to the Kinder Morgan proposal

A large portion of the route Kinder Morgan currently says is their preferred route, runs

through the Burnaby Mountain Conservation Area

All of the oil the new pipeline would carry is for export, not for use in Canada

The new pipeline would result in seven times the current number of oil supertankers

carrying oil through Burrard Inlet

Compared to the first survey conducted in June, the level of awareness of the specific facts tested is significantly higher, particularly on the city’s opposition to the project (78%, +11), and the increase in the number of supertankers (69%, +6).

Awareness of Facts

9

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q5. Here are certain facts related to the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Had you seen, read or heard anything about these facts before taking this survey?

Aware Not aware

22%

27%

30%

31%

I was aware of this fact I was not aware of this fact until now

78%

73%

70%

69%

Kinder Morgan is proposing to store three times as much oil at the tank farm on

Burnaby Mountain as is currently stored there

Kinder Morgan has changed their proposed pipeline route several times

90% of the proposed pipeline would follow a new route in Burnaby

The new pipeline would carry unrefined bitumen – not the refined oil product carried

in the current pipeline

Three-in-five residents (60%) are aware than Kinder Morgan has changed their proposed route several times. It is important to note that, for the first time, a majority of residents (55%, +7) are aware that the new pipeline will carry bitumen.

Awareness of Facts

10

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q5. Here are certain facts related to the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Had you seen, read or heard anything about these facts before taking this survey?

Aware Not aware

35%

40%

45%

45%

I was aware of this fact I was not aware of this fact until now

65%

60%

55%

55%

While the proportion of supporters of the proposed expansion is lower than it was in June, the main theme continues to be economic development.

Motivations to Support Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline

11

Base: Among those who support Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline (n=148) Q6a. You have said you support the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Why do you support the project? Please type your response in the box below.

Because I am concerned about oil spill risks

Because I am concerned about increase in number of oil tankers shipping oil through Burrard Inlet

Because I don’t want the Burnaby Mountain oil storage tank farm expanded

Because I don’t want a new pipeline through Burnaby

Because I am concerned about air quality impacts

Because I am concerned about fire risks

Because the oil the new pipeline would carry is for export, not for use in Canada

Other

None of these

91%

80%

70%

64%

60%

57%

48%

14%

2%

The biggest driver for opposition to the proposed expansion continues to be concern about an oil spill (91%), followed by the increase in oil tankers (80%) and the expansion of the Burnaby Mountain oil storage tank farm (70%).

Motivations for Opposing Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline

12

Base: Among those who oppose Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline (n=317) Q6b. You have said you oppose the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Why do you oppose the project?

Four-in-five residents (79%) continue to believe the expansion would increase the risk of spills and/or fires. There is a sizeable drop in the job creation question: From 57% in June to 48% this month.

Truth in Statements

13

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q7. Here are some statements that have been made about the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Do you think each one of these statements will actually come true or not if the project is authorized?

Not Sure

The Kinder Morgan Expansion would increase

the risk of spills and or fires in Burnaby

4%

The Kinder Morgan expansion would be

detrimental to quality of life in Burnaby

8%

The Kinder Morgan expansion would create

long-term jobs in Burnaby 15%

The Kinder Morgan expansion would cause jobs

to be lost in Burnaby 22%

True Not True

Definitely true Probably True Probably not true Definitely not true

48%

29%

7%

4%

79%

58%

48%

13%

3%

8%

9%

15%

18%

34%

36%

65%

As was the case in June, the three statements tested on this question find agreement from at least two-thirds of residents—with the highest concern expressed about an oil spill affecting Burnaby Lake.

Statements

14

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q8. All things considered, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Not Sure

An oil spill from the Burnaby Mountain tank farm could

get into nearby streams and reach Burnaby Lake

4%

Drilling through Burnaby Mountain would have long-

term negative impacts in this conservation area

6%

Tripling the amount of oil stored at the Burnaby

Mountain tank farm and having larger holding tanks

would create an unacceptable fire risk

5%

Agree Disagree

Strongly agree Moderately agree Moderately disagree Strongly disagree

57%

52%

42%

87%

71%

68%

2%

6%

7%

9%

23%

26%

Two-thirds of residents (68%) are satisfied with the City’s position on the proposed project, with a majority (52%) “strongly” agreeing with this approach.

Support for City of Burnaby’s Opposition

15

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q9. All things considered, do you agree or disagree with the City of Burnaby’s decision to oppose the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline?

Strongly agree

Moderately agree

Moderately disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

52%

16%

16%

11%

5%

Agree 68%

Disagree 27%

A majority of residents (55%) have always been opposed to the proposal, while 7% have gone from supporters to opponents.

Change of Mind as Project Continues

16

Base: All respondents (n=506) Q10. As you learn more about the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline, which of these statements comes closest to your own point of view?

I was supportive of the proposed expansion, and still feel that way

I was supportive of the proposed expansion, but now I am

opposed to it

I was opposed to the proposed expansion, but now I support it

I was opposed to the proposed expansion, and still feel that way

Not sure

22%

7%

3%

55%

11%

Simplified Understanding

KEY INSIGHTS

Key Insights

18

Insight: There is still a noticeable gender gap

on familiarity, with Men (83%) expressing a higher level of acquaintance with the project than women (69%).

The level of awareness remains as high as it was in June (93%, +1), but familiarity has increased markedly (78%, +7). All major demographics and areas of Burnaby are at least “somewhat familiar” with the project.

Burnaby Residents Are Not Tuning Out

Insight: The majority of residents who already

opposed the project has grown over the past two months. Support for the City’s position remains stable, with just 27% disagreeing with this course of action.

Only 29% (-5) of residents support the expansion, and opposition has reached 63% (+9). The City’s decision to to oppose the project is at 68% (-2). In addition, only 3% of residents went from “opponents” to “supporters” as they learned more about the expansion.

As Time Continues, More Residents Are Opposed

Key Insights

19

Insight: The population is better informed

about specific facts related to the proposed expansion than two months ago. This added awareness may be partly responsible for the evident drop in support.

For the first time, most residents (55%) are aware of the fact that the new pipeline will carry bitumen. In addition, three-in-five (60%) are aware than Kinder Morgan has changed their proposed route several times.

Some Misconceptions Are Slowly Dissipating

Insight: As observed two months ago, the

notion of the pipeline transporting fuel that will not be used in Canada is not one of the primary drivers of opposition.

The main reasons cited by opponents of the project are the possibility of an oil spill (91%) and the increase in oil tanker traffic is also high (80%).

Oil Spill Fears Remain a Powerful Persuader

Key Insights

20

Insight: While the “jobs angle” continues to be

one of the main reasons for male Burnaby residents to be more supportive of the project, the numbers are dropping and the public seems more skeptical.

Two months ago, three-in-five men (63%) thought the proposed expansion would lead to long-term jobs for Burnaby. The proportion who feel this way has now dropped to 50% (-13).

The Jobs Angle is “Less” Popular With Men

Insight: While Asian residents expect the

proposed expansion to create jobs, they are already rejecting the project.

Support for the proposed expansion is higher among White residents (30%) than those with Asian heritage (23%) and other ethnicities (24%). However, White residents are more likely to voice “strong opposition” to the project (45%) than Asian residents (38%).

Ethnic Analysis Shows Consistency

Simplified Understanding

For more in fo rmat ion p lease contact : M a r i o C a n s e c o m a r i o c a n s e c o @ i n s i g h t s w e s t . c o m 6 0 4 . 9 2 9 . 0 4 9 0