Key recommnadation from AASW6: Innovations in targeting African farming systems

Innovations in targeting African farmingsystems for improved productivity and

investment impact

FARA AASW Sub-theme 2Accra, 19 July 2013

John Dixon Principal Regional Coordinator

South Asia & Africa, ACIAR

Contents

Challenges for ARD

Approaches to targeting

Farming systems

Conclusion

Challenge 1: food requirements in 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Glo

bal F

ood

Dem

and

(Pet

acal

/day

)

Year

71% increase 2010 to 2050

129% increase 1970 to 2010

Source: Keating et al 2012

Goal: “feeding 9 billion”

Century trends: population, agric prices

Source: Fuglie & Wang 2012

Regional trends: African extensification cf Asian intensification

Source:World Bank, 2008

In some African countries, areas of under utilized agricultural land

Challenge 2: current hunger & poverty

Goal: “eliminate poverty for 1 billion poor”

Pathways out of smallholder poverty

Intensification20%

Diversification30%

Exit

10%

Off-Farm Income20%

Farm Size 20%

Example: maize mixed farming system in east and southern Africa

Some of the constraints …

Low productivityScarce biomass

Land degradation

Poor marketsClimate variability

Limited resouces

A response: Sustainable Intensification Systems

Increased productivity and resilience without loss of resource quality, through:• Commodity or NRM programs • Augmented by “systems” components

Four pillars require investment:• Systems and farming systems• Innovation systems and information sharing• Policies, institutions and markets• Metrics and monitoring

Where and how to target sustainable intensification and agric R&D

Current targeting is often organized by administrative or agro-ecological zones

Potential for improved targeting to ..• Improve efficiency and impact, e.g., research

productivity• Align better with other programs and partners

Targeting by farming systems is generallymore efficient than by administrative divisionsor agro-ecological zones

African farming systems framework

NOTES Too much diversity for research & policy decisions

Differentiate broad farming systems, each with a “core concept” and specific R4D priorities

NB. A similar classification exists for North Africa

Contrasting sub-systems: Highland Perennial farming system

  Central Highlands Western Highlands

Population density +++ ++++Farm size +++ ++Market infrastructure ++ +Poverty 30% poor >60% poorCrop area 

35% maize17% tea

17% coffeeMore high value crops

42% maize8% tea

10% coffee

% of improved cattle 95%22% of crop area in

fodderZero-grazing increasing

67%11% in fodder

Value of production 102K KSh/household 44K KSh/householdUse of fertilizers 122 kg/ha

74 manure bags51 kg/ha

26 manure bags

SYSTEM LEVELHigh population densityHigh agricultural potentialPermanently cultivated systemsMarket-orientation as a way to intensify systems

SUBSYSTEM LEVELDifferentiate

Drivers of farming system change

• Population, hunger and poverty• Natural resources and climate• Energy • Human capital and information (gender)

• Technology and science

• Markets and trade • Institutions and policies

Productivity and risk e.g., possibilities to 2030 in Australia

Carberry et al. 2011

Applying farming systems targeting

Value add at regional scale Differentiating regional strategic priorities Framing technology spillovers across countries Potential framework for monitoring progress (CAADP ..

Value add at national scale Enrich existing planning frameworks Support CAADP investment plans

Some implications in Africa

• Foresight needed to specify plausible future scenarios

• Increased productivity of existing food production without diversification risks poverty traps

• Small holders have comparative advantage in integrated

management-intensive production • Research on institutional innovations for gender

sensitive access to services (beyond markets), access to resources (land, water, .) and options for risk management

Conclusion

Twin challenges (of feeding 9 billion in 2050 and addressing current poverty of 1 billion) can be met through targeted research and scaling out (supported by other programs)

Farming systems offers an efficient targeting framework to support CAADP Investment Plans • Within countries, to enrich existing approaches• Within sub-regions, for strategic priorities and

spillovers

ACIAR

Thank you for your attention