Kenya Forecast Devolved Government Survey

8/3/2019 Kenya Forecast Devolved Government Survey

1/13

Forecast of the role and effectiveness of devolved government in

Kenya specialists survey

This survey is done to inform a research report titled A forecast of the role and effectiveness of devolved government

in Kenya; four scenarios and purely for academic purposes as part of the fulfilment for a degree (M Phil Futures

Studies) at the University of Stellenbosch Institute for Futures Research.

Please complete electronic and email [email protected] or complete hard copy and fax back to

+27 11 206 3014 attention Jan.

Your rating of the drivers and the indicators will provide inputs into the writing of the four scenarios. These will also be

circulated if you wished to provide any written contributions before they are finalised for submission.

Title: ____________

Name and surname: ____________________________

Date: _____________

Respondents are welcome to remain anonymous, but especially if any written contributions were made, the author of

the research report would like to make reference to the contributor/provide acknowledgement.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/13

PART A: RATING OF DRIVERS

The following drivers that might have an impact on the role and effectiveness of devolved government in Kenya were

identified.

Kindly rate them in order of importance - placing a 1 next to the most important, 2 next to second most important, 3

next to third most important and so on. It could have a positive or a negative effect. Please first complete your ratings

for 2012 and then proceed to each of the years 2017, 2022 and 2032 after that. Your opinion of the amount of

influence the driver might have could change over the years as the context change based on your own forecast.

You are also welcome to add to the list before you start your ratings. The idea is not to practice an exact science but

to get a general feeling of what the most important factors will be.

Driver 2012 2017 2022 2032

Technical skills capacity in counties/cities/municipalities/towns

Culture of centralisation and personalisation of political power

Manipulation of ethnicity for political gain

Regime change at election time

Civil society and opposition party protection of the constitution

Battle for political control takes precedence over set up of required technocraticstructures

Corruption

Urbanisation

Youth unemployment

Resistance to change from current structures such as provincial administration

Central government checks such as the senate and commission on revenueallocation

Political will

Project management of the transition to devolved government

Contributions of United Nations and donor agencies

Foreign technical assistance

Availability of engineering skills, i.e. private sector as preferred employer abovepublic sector causes a lack of engineering skills

Technological advances

Environmental factors (i.e. drought)

Internal social unrest

War

Adequacy/sufficiency and promptness of central government transfers tocounties and counties transfers to cities/municipalities and towns


3/13

PART B: RATING OF INDICATORS

The situation could differ from county to county. The selected counties are a sample of rural/urban, mono-ethnic/multi

ethnic and high population/low population. In each case please feel free to add any additional counties you would like

to rate if you feel it would make the sample more representative.

Kindly provide your answer to inform indicators for each of the years 2012, 2017, 2022 and2032.

1. Do you think that the counties will have free and fair elections?

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please select Yes/No Yes/No Yes/No Yes/No

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu

Comments:


4/13

2. Kindly provide your opinion of what the ability of the counties assemblies will be to pass legislation

that creates an enabling environment for development by rating it from 1-10? (1=worst performance,

10=best performance)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please score 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu

Comments:


5/13

3. Kindly provide your opinion of what the ability of the county administrations (permanent staff) will be

to manage functions that are assigned to them through the 4th Schedule of the Constitution by rating it

from 1-10? I.e. county roads, water and refuse removal services. (1=worst performance, 10=best

performance)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please score 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu

Comments:


6/13

4. Do you think the 15% minimum transfer of the total national budgetis sufficient to cover the counties

required expenditure?

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please select Yes/No Yes/No Yes/No Yes/No

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu

Comments


7/13

5. Kindly provide your estimation of the percentage of the total county budgetthat will be required as

transfers from central government? Provide your forecast by inserting your estimated percentage. 0-100%

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please give estimated % 0-100% 0-100% 0-100% 0-100%

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu

Comments:


8/13

6. Kindly provide your opinion of what the counties ability will be to budget and plan for what is

required to serve their population by rating it from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please score 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu

Comments:


9/13

7. Kindly provide your opinion of what the cities/municipalities/towns ability in the counties will be tocollect revenue (i.e. property taxes, user fees, administration fees) from the population by rating it

from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please score 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu


10/13

Comments:

8. Kindly provide your opinion of what the counties ability will be to transform the grants from central

government and donor funding into tangible benefits (services) to the population by rating it from 1-

10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please score 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu


11/13

Comments:

9. Kindly provide your opinion of what the cities, municipalities and towns ability within the county will

be to transform the grants from the county government, own revenue (i.e. property taxes, user fees,

administration fees) and donor funding into tangible benefits (services) to the population by rating it

from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please score 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu


12/13

Comments:

10.Do you think there will be any significant socio or economic crises present during the years stated

below? (Very likely 1, Likely 2, Not Likely 3, Not at all 4)

Year 2012 2017 2022 2032

Please select 1-4 1-4 1-4 1-4

Nairobi

Nakuru

Nyamira

Marsabit

Migori

Mombasa

Uasin Gishu

Bungoma

Narok

Nandi

Meru

Lamu


13/13

Comments:

Kenya Forecast Devolved Government Survey

Documents