Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences: University of East Anglia CRed.

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Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences: University of East Anglia CRed Sustainable Energy Conference 23rd March 2004 Slide 2 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? The Problem Some of the Barriers What is being done? Energy Security - Hard Choices Ahead Sustainable Technology And Renewability - the STAR of the EAST. Slide 3 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? The Eastern Region the Energy Region of England and Wales. Good Renewable Prospects Important GAS links (Russian Pipe Line). Major Employment Opportunities. Slide 4 Climate and Energy in the East Recent Events Carbon Eras Climatic History Electricity Renewables Conservation Mammoth Dunwich Star Fish Carbon 1 Peat Carbon 2 Coal Carbon 3 Gas Carbon 3 Oil Floods Canvey Island 1953 Floods Coastal Erosion Little Barford Kings Lynn Rye House Peterborough Tilbury Sizewell Great Yarmouth Suffolk Norfolk Essex Cambridge Bedford Hertfordshire Slide 5 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? Climate Change - The Problem Future Scenarios if we do nothing Slide 6 Future Global Warming Rates Slide 7 I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Reasons for Concern I II III IV V Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for most Regions Negative for some Regions Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Net Negative for all markets most Very Low Risk Higher Risk Current temperature Historic Average Average 1950 - 1970 oCoC IIRisks from Extreme Climatic Events IIIDistribution of Impacts IVAggregate Impacts VRisks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities Slide 8 Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO 2 emissions. Gas Scenario Nuclear Scenario Coal Scenario Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear 60% reduction 20% reduction 20 year growth in demand 1.8-2% per annum 2.2% in 2003 Slide 9 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? The Government Response Legislative Barriers Slide 10 Government Response Energy White Paper aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s ( but no indication of how this will be undertaken) There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. - Energy White Paper: February 2003 Slide 11 UK Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010 in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3% Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh Revision of Building Regulations brought forward EU Biofuels Directive for Transport 2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 Carbon Emission Trading - National Allocation Plans to be in place by 31st March 2004. Slide 12 Legislative Barriers to Sustainability Carbon Emission Trading - UK National Allocation Plan Several Serious Flaws Does not reward Early Action Based purely on Historical Emissions Should be based (at least in part) on Technology employed Fails to address issue of improved Load Factors of CHP where these are subsequently associated with adsorption chilling Does not reward efforts towards energy conservation in past. Restrictions on Grants (Heat Recovery Heat Pumps) up to 80% of heat energy can be needed for ventilation excluded from grants unless incorporated in a ground loop recovery system. Slide 13 The Elizabeth Fry Building Heating provided by two domestic sized boilers. Energy requirement 20% of good practice for Academic Buildings. Slide 14 Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of emissions of mid 90s best practice building Photovoltaic cells will generate ~ 34 kW and save 20 tonnes CO 2 per annum. Projected Performance of ZICER Slide 15 Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICER Problems with Building Regulations No incentive to improve: 8 out of 10 is really 8 out of 17.7 Optional Renewable/Conservation Packages for New Homes? Slide 16 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? The Community Response Technical Solutions Renwable Energy Energy Conservation The CRed Project Awareness Raising. Slide 17 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 300 million each year for UK. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. The Right Language CRed Slide 18 A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour 1.6 miles CRed Some facts: Slide 19 Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Average daily Solar Gain to March 21st ~ 1.6 kWh Solar Collectors installed 26th January 2004 Slide 20 Duke Street Renovation Domestic Units Rebuild /Refurbishment of existing faade on Duke Street Location of former Heat Pump the first in the UK Commercial /Hotel Development Domestic Units Refurbishment of former Electricity Board Offices Norwich led the way in 1940s: First ever Heat Pump Opportunity to reinstate a heat pump in the same building that John Sumner did his pioneering work. Slide 21 Wind Turbines at UEA? Yare Valley Society have been universally opposed to any development in Yare Valley. BUT Using a careful consultation, opinions changed. Slide 22 Emphasised turbines from Broad On their questionnaire - 21% voted 50% in favour Slide 23 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? Difficult Choices Ahead Slide 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Difficult Choices Ahead Slide 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 26 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? Slide 27 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. Slide 28 Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security. A diverse renewable supply will be local less prone to cascade power cuts Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 660 MW Failure of one of these requires much greater backup Localised generation reduces transmission/distribution losses BUT: Arent Renewables unreliable? we need secure supply Slide 29 Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? Sustainable Technology And Renewability STAR of the EAST An integration of ideas: Awareness about Climate Change and Energy Issues A demonstration integrated Renewable Power Station. A Research facility for cutting edge technology A centre for Industries of the Future A Tourist attraction A link for the Region A Conference Venue for Sustainability Slide 30 Existing Switching Station Former Power Station - now demolished Pylons Detailed Aerial Photograph Slide 31 Star of the East Alsop Arhitects Slide 32 Star of the East Alsop Arhitects Slide 33 Star of the East Alsop Arhitects Slide 34 View from Thorpe Station The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished Slide 35 Sustainable Technology And Renewablility The Star of the EAST Recent Events Carbon Eras Climatic History Electricity Renewables Conservation STARS of excellence in each County Write to EEDA in Support of the STAR by next MONDAY Slide 36 What is CRed doing - will you become a partner? Will you pledge to reduce Carbon Dioxide? As an Individual, the pledge might be a small challenge: for an Organisation, it might be a large one. Visit the CRed Website www.cred-uk.org to pledge on-line This presentation will be on the WEB from 24th March at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Diocese of Norwich Norwich Union Liftshare Eastern Heatpumps Woodys Norfolk County Council Eastern Daily Press SMS Strattons Deepdale Farm Camelot Craft Alpha Schools Jarvis Farmers link SERCO LSI R.Bilbie Amicus AEEAC Norwich 21 Global Commodities Kingswood School 100 + SLP Energy Powergen EDP LEA Fielden & Mawson May Gurney EEDA BPS Sth Norfolk D. C. The Broads Authority. The RSPB SUSTRANS EEEGr EBC Ltd. Amicus Foodlink Your Energy Grp CML Contractors Norwich City Council Creative Construction Norwich City FC Rainbow foods Whitby Bird Suffolk County Council BroadLand D.C.