Keeping the Lights On A road map for taking electric reliability to the next level Presented by Dan ONeill to the EEI Customer Operations Executive Workshop.

Keeping the Lights OnKeeping the Lights On

A road map for taking electric reliability to A road map for taking electric reliability to the next levelthe next level

Presented by Dan O’Neillto

the EEI Customer Operations Executive Workshop

Presented by Dan O’Neillto

the EEI Customer Operations Executive Workshop

March 27, 2000

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998

Number of states with new rules

What utilities What utilities werewere doing is no longer good enough doing is no longer good enough

Source: Article by Navigant’s Dan O’Neill, Public Utilities Fortnightly, March 1999

Commissions are adopting new reliability rulesCommissions are adopting new reliability rules

3

California

• PBR

• Fines > $ millions

• Mandated programs

Illinois

• Negotiated targets

• Economic damages

• Penalties

• Mandated programs

• Audits

• Public reporting

Texas

• Fines > $ millions

• Negotiated targets

• Public reporting

• Audits

New York

• PBR

• Public reporting

Florida

• Audits

• Mandated programs

• Increased spending

New Jersey

• Audits

• Mandated programs

To comply, companies are looking at spending To comply, companies are looking at spending a lot morea lot more time and money time and money

The new rules have real teeth in them The new rules have real teeth in them

4

Could Could this this

happen happen to you?to you?

ComEd’s very public troubles are a good exampleComEd’s very public troubles are a good example

5

SAIDI / SAIFI

Worst Circuits

Complaints

Just managing SAIDI is no longer good enoughJust managing SAIDI is no longer good enough

• Commissions and customers are no longer satisfied with good performance on system averages like SAIDI, SAIFI and CAIDI

• Many of the new regulations require reporting of performance on worst circuits, with negotiated targets for improvement, e.g., what was proposed by the Texas PUC:

SAIFI SAIDI Compliance

– ‘Minimum acceptable 3.8 315 98.5%

– ‘Target’ 2.6 158 90.0%

• What they really want is customer satisfaction, few complaints, and not even small ‘pockets’ of consistently poor performance

Many companies don’t even Many companies don’t even measuremeasure ‘worst pockets’ now ‘worst pockets’ now

danger

danger

danger

6

Customer interruptions

Customer minutes

Restoration time

Device outages

Customers per deviceVegetation

Animal

Lightning

Equipment

Trim, remove, mow & spray

Guards, BIL

Arresters, BIL shield, ground

Inspect, repair/replace

OtherPlanning, upgrades

SAIDI / SAIFIWorst circuitsSatisfaction

Remediation Root cause

Effectiveness

$

Sectionalizing

Deployment

Utilities need to know what it takes to ‘move the needle’Utilities need to know what it takes to ‘move the needle’

Accurate estimates

Know what you spend by program

Don’t spend money on the wrong problem

Don’t just assume 75% reduction

Minimize the impact of outages that remain

Make sure you are right-sized

Customers really want to know

Measure the right things

7

LightningOutages

LineFlashovers

1.Number ofStrikes to

or Near Line

1b.Natural

ShieldingAtmospheric

Conditions

1a.Strike

Density

1c.Pole Height

Elevation

ConstructionType

InitialConstruction

Cost

2a.Wire

Configuration

Terrain

DesignStandards

CustomerRequirements

2.BIL

2b.Device

Age

LineVoltage

2c.Contamination

Buildup

3a.Static Wire

Usage3b.

ArrestorInstallations

GroundingMethods

3.Line

Protection

ProgramActivity

4.EquipmentCondition

DeviceCoordination

SoilProperties

GroundingMethods

1e.Line

Length

Overhead Vs.Underground

1d.Overhead Vs.Underground

SoilProperties

““We spent money on lightning remediation, We spent money on lightning remediation, and found the problem was conductor slap”and found the problem was conductor slap”

Source: Navigant study oflightning root cause analysis

Effective remediation starts with accurate root cause analysisEffective remediation starts with accurate root cause analysis

8

574F

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Q11995

Q21995

Q31995

Q41995

Q11996

Q21996

Q31996

Q41996

Q11997

Q21997

Q31997

Q41997

Q11998

Q21998

Str

ok

e In

de

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ou

tag

es

Extended Momentary Stroke Index

Wo

rk P

erf

orm

ed

Effectiveness requires studies of before-and-after impactEffectiveness requires studies of before-and-after impact

““We had assumed that vegetation remediation We had assumed that vegetation remediation would reduce tree-caused outages 75 percent. would reduce tree-caused outages 75 percent. The study showed it was closer to 50 percent.”The study showed it was closer to 50 percent.”

Source: Navigant study of lightning remediation effectiveness

9

Detailed geographic data can be used to spot patternsDetailed geographic data can be used to spot patterns

Example:

For animal mitigation, we helped a company use its geographic data to detect patterns of animal-caused outages for more effective programs to prevent squirrel-caused outages

Other examples of in-depth studies include lightning, vegetation, circuit breakers, etc.

““We didn’t realize We didn’t realize we could do that we could do that

with our data”with our data”

Source: Navigant study of animal remediation

10

Repair & restore

Repair dispatch

Switch & restore

Patrol & diagnose

Drive timeTrouble dispatch

Outage analysis

5 min 10 min 20 min 10 min 15 min 10 min 45 minNon-storm:10 min 30 min 20 min 15 min 20 min 30 min 60 minStorm:

Where are storms hurting you the most?

Where is your best opportunity

to improve?

How can you keep customers well informed?

What staffing do you need to meet

your targets?

And would an external auditor agree that you are doing all you can?And would an external auditor agree that you are doing all you can?

Restoration can be improved at each step on the wayRestoration can be improved at each step on the way

11

Segment Backbone Lateral

Wire Bare Covered Bare Covered

Voltage 5 kV > 5 kV All kV 5 kV > 5 kV All kV

Veg. Density L H L H L H L H L H L H

1 - -

2 -

3 0.06 0.13 0.06 0.13 0.05 0.09 0.06 0.13 0.15 0.35 0.08 0.13

4 +

Years SinceLast Trimmed

5 ++

Customers Impactedper Outage

600 Customers 40 Customers

Durationper Outage

150 Minutes 150 Minutes

Failure Rates per Mile

Illustration -Vegetation model

Without this kind of analysis, you could be shooting in the darkWithout this kind of analysis, you could be shooting in the dark

Source: Navigant T&D decision analysis model

Decision analysis can be effectively applied to T&D programsDecision analysis can be effectively applied to T&D programs

12

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Reliability program funding ($millions)

SA

IDI (

min

ute

s p

er c

ust

om

er)

Many companies do not know where they are “on the curve”Many companies do not know where they are “on the curve”

All reliability programs experience ‘diminishing returns’

yet many companies cannot say what the impact on reliability would be...

... of increasing/decreasing spending by say, $5 million in a given year

Yet CEOs, CFO’s (and regulators) expect to know the answer Yet CEOs, CFO’s (and regulators) expect to know the answer

or which programs should receive more or less of the budget change

Illustrative Example

13

CB program funding

SA

IDI (

min

ute

s p

er c

ust

om

er)

$1.50 Per Customer

Minute Saved

Transformer program funding

SA

IDI (

min

ute

s p

er c

ust

om

er)

$3.00 Per Customer

Minute Saved

Line program funding

SA

IDI (

min

ute

s p

er c

ust

om

er)

$0.50 Per Customer

Minute Saved

Illustrative Example

Few companies have optimized across programsFew companies have optimized across programs

One utility saved tens of $millions, without reducing reliability, One utility saved tens of $millions, without reducing reliability, by redirecting its budget through this type of analysis by redirecting its budget through this type of analysis

Source: Navigant T&D decision analysis model

14

An apples-to-apples comparison is now possibleAn apples-to-apples comparison is now possible

• Navigant Consulting has obtained all of the newly public data on reliability

• We have contacted all of the companies to find out what is included and excluded, to get true “apples-to-apples” comparisons

• We have used proprietary detailed outage databases to estimate the impacts of various treatments and exclusions

Fuses Circuit Breakers

Reclosers & Other

Transformers

SAIDI Typically Reported by

Utilities

Emergency Planned Outages

Customer Equipment

< 5Min.Duration

Non-named Storms

MajorNamedEvents

Total

SAIDI

As it becomes known that these data can be publicly obtained, As it becomes known that these data can be publicly obtained, utilities will need to know where they stand on this basis utilities will need to know where they stand on this basis

Source: Navigant benchmarking analysis

15

Perceived SAIFI

Po

wer

Qu

alit

y &

Rel

iab

ility

Ind

ex

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

A perceived SAIFI > 1 causes a satisfaction lower than the average of 100

Source: JD Power & Associates, with Navigant Consulting

Methods now exist that can target customer satisfactionMethods now exist that can target customer satisfaction

Each point on the graph is a utility in the sample

In another graph, ‘perceived SAIFI’ was shown to track actual SAIFI

Utilities with poor ‘perceived SAIFI’ had poor satisfaction for power quality/reliability

Most of those with poor satisfaction have now been audited by PSCs

16

Regulatory TrendsRegulatory Trends Know what local, state and federal regulators are doing nationwide, and get ready to respond to a reliability audit

BenchmarkingBenchmarking Know how you stand relative to other companies in terms of performance, spending, and best practices

Outage Data AnalysisOutage Data AnalysisUse a standard set of queries to develop useable information from your trouble call history

Bang Per BuckBang Per BuckKnow which programs deliver the most reliability improvement per dollar spent and how much it takes to achieve your targets

Service restorationService restorationImprove restoration time and customer satisfaction through employing the latest methods and technology to restore and inform customers quickly

Business modelBusiness modelOrganize effectively for targeting shareholder value through performance, with links to the right indicators, measures, roles, and incentives

Here is a road map up to the next levelHere is a road map up to the next level

Next step - move up to the next levelNext step - move up to the next level

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Regulatory TrendsRegulatory Trends Avoid embarrassing showdowns with local, state, and federal officials that could cost $millions in penalties and mandates

BenchmarkingBenchmarking Don’t spend time and money chasing the wrong target

Outage Data AnalysisOutage Data AnalysisWhy re-invent the wheel? Standard analyses can provide unique, valuable insights when applied to your data

Bang Per BuckBang Per BuckMany companies are wasting money on the wrong programs. Some have saved tens of millions of dollars by doing it right

Service restorationService restorationTime is money. Better methods to reduce restoration time and keep customers informed can achieve results more effectively

Business modelBusiness modelThe ultimate test for the customer and the regulator is satisfaction. Link it to everyday work and use it to incent your company and reap rewards

The ‘next level’ - customers and regulators expect it nowThe ‘next level’ - customers and regulators expect it now

What kind of results can you expect?What kind of results can you expect?

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Taking reliability programs to the ‘next level’Taking reliability programs to the ‘next level’

Questions and answersQuestions and answers

DANIEL E. O’NEILL

Director, T&D Reliability & Operations Practice

Main: (781) 270-0101

Home Office: (404) 816-5647

Mobile: (404) 307-3661

Fax: (404) 841-9460

[email protected]

200 Wheeler Road, Suite 400

Burlington, MA 01803

1043 Lenox Crest NE

Atlanta, GA 30324