4 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 1 (57)/2015 EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION C KAZAKHSTAN’S EURASIAN INITIATIVE VYACHESLAV DODONOV y E v w S v U y v K w y E E Cy (EAEC) E C U (ECU) E E S (EES) E E U (EEU). I y vw E w P Nyv K Lv Mw S Uv y M 1994. Hwv K’ tiative had been articulated for the first time in 1991 Bv A B R U Cw I S and the USSR had been officially dissolved. N Nyv v Sv R AA y v v y x . T E v K y Sv x CIS w . Hitr f Eraian Initiati: fr l- a-ta Prtcl t t Eraian Ecnic Unin Given that the first step towards an integra w Sv w S v R AA y Nyv D 21 1991 w v Bv A D 8 y Sv R B U R. T AA y v Sv R AA P j v Cw I S. T v w w: Cw qy y y w Cw w y; j y v w x y; wv ’ v () ; Cw I S Sv U R w y C w;
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y E E Cy (EAEC) E C U (ECU) E E S (EES) E E U (EEU).
I y vw E w P Nyv K Lv Mw S Uvy M 1994. Hwv K’ tiativehadbeenarticulatedforthefirsttimein1991 Bv A B R U Cw I S and the USSR had been officially dissolved.N Nyv v Sv R AA y v vy x . T E v K y Sv x CIS w .
Hitr f Eraian Initiati: fr l-a-ta Prtcl t t Eraian Ecnic Unin
Giventhatthefirststeptowardsanintegra w Sv w Sv R AA y Nyv D 21 1991 w v Bv A D 8 y Sv R B U R. T AA y v Sv R AA P j v Cw I S. T v w w:
Cw qy y y w Cw w y;
j y v w x y; wv ’ v () ;
Cw I S Sv U R w y Cw;
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Cw firmtheircommitmenttocooperationinforma v E E [1].
T v E thefirst timeappeared inAlma-AtaProtocol.T E v D 1991.
The next significant step in the deve- w y P Nyv Lv Mw S Uvy. D Nyv j E w “E U” K’ P w v CIS. Nyv CIS w q y w w . T “E U” y Nyv’ w xy w [2].
Nyv CIS v w v v 400 y [2].
Nyv v CIS qvy v w v qy. S K’ P E U. T w CIS; v w y .. y [2].
I wv
Nyv v . O y vy y y w U [2].
L 2001 Nyv affirmed the basic principles he thought theE U w vy . I “Ivy” w Nyv w . T first,hesaidthat,althoughtheculturalandcivi w vy v y y . “T ” Nyv w. T K’ P E U v [3].
T Nyv w j vy. E w wy . Hwv Nyv y w w cherish one’s self-sufficiency and uniqueness [3].
T w qy E U Nyv v w . T ’ vy vy y w U.
T w Nyv w w
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v . T ed verywell-defined and realistic powers and y vy . Nyv x E U [3].
I 1994 w y y CIS. Hwv significancefortheideaoftheEurasianintegra y K w w principleswerearticulatedforthefirsttimethatw y j.
I 1994 v E w w v vy . T v w wy y ECU EES vy EEU.
S y E y v w CIS x E . S v w:
A 15 1994 Aj A B G K Kyy Mv R Tj U U CIS F T Z A;
Jy 20 1995 B KstanandRussiaconducted thefirst agreement C U;
M 29 1996 B K Kyy R Ty I I E H F.
T 1990 w CIS w
v C U. Hwv vy w ; w v significantdifferenceintermsofagenuinein w v .
T x CIS FTZ vy v. T v A w A 1994 y Nyv’ Mw S Uvy. Hwv w . T R x w CIS F T Z A.
F v 15 y vv CIS F T Z w vy . T w CIS w y Cw Hwv w O 18 2011 w H Gv CIS w y F T Z S. P. Y A w y v CIS *. I w w y CIS FTZ y .
T x CIS FTZ w w howinefficienttheCommonwealthwasasafa . T x w CIS v y w w y v y y w y w vy.
T E E Cy (EAEC) CIS . T EAEC w E .
T Ty EAEC w 1 Notably,notallthesignatorieshaveratifiedthetreatysofar.
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O 10 2000 A My 30 2001. T w y y five states, namelyBelarus,Kazakhstan,Kyry R Tj w y w vy v .
O Jy 25 2006 U P A. I O 2008 U wv . S My 2002 U Mv v w EAEC A v Jy 2003. T Ty E E Cy I Av C (IAC) E Dv B (EDB).
T EAEC w ECU EES w economicandhumanitarianfields.
S E w : E E Cy (EAEC) E C U (ECU) E Eic Space (EES) and finally the Eurasian Eco U (EEU) Jy 1 2015 w ECU EES v w EAEC w “T EAEC C U” “T EAEC C E S”.
T j EAEC w w:
- establishment of a full-fledged free trade y y ;
v ;-creationofasinglefinancialmarket;- finding the common ground to formulate
y w EAEC;
;
-establishmentofacommonunifiedsystem ;
v intergovernmental programs of specific goal- ;
v y;
y ; q v
; v
EAEC w Cy;
y w y w ;
v y EAEC w Cy [4].
Ay y E Dv B AC F C H Ty w w EAEC y v x .
I w EAEC w j E theEurasianEconomicSpace(EES).Thefirsty y B K R U w v y S 2003. Ny U y v; y ww EES y w y . F x 2005 U w EES y w y .. q . Kv
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y C U q. I v U w w y y.
O D 9 2009 Ay P B K R v A P 20102011 v wy x w y E E S w v y Jy 1 2012.
F y v w EES w 20102011 v y Jy 1 2011 w x EES y Jy 1 2012. U 9 S E E C Ty E E S Jy 1 2012.
T EAEC w w E C U. I w theECUthatsignifiedadecisivestepforwardsthefull-fledgedEurasianeconomicintegration K y w . S 1990 C U j v w Jy 1 2015. T w w:
1999 B K Kyy R Tj Ty C U C E S v C U w C E S [5];
A 2006 EAEC S
C U B K R w w y j y Kyy Tj [5];
v S B K R Ty E C U O 2007 [5];
J 2009 y ECU y w ECU Jy 1st,2010asthefirststageofitsformation[5];
Jy 1 2010 B R w ; ECUmemberstates introducedaunifiedcus w . S Jy 1 2011 v v. Fy Jy 1 2011 w w K R. T B K R w [5];
Nx w w y ECU. T P B K R D E I Nv 18 2011. T w E E S w w Jy 1 2012. T EES x w v v . T w w ECU EES E E U [5]. O y A E E C w y ECU EES. T C Fy 2 2012 [5].
I w v E j AA P D 21 1991
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E E S B K R Jy 1 2012 P K N Nyv y . B Ay A v v E . T w x w E v E (maticEurasianism)articulatedforthefirsttimey P Nyv K E v y K .
K’ v E wy y v y economy and aimed at intensification (some ) inthekeyfields,namelytrade,industryandinv. T v wy K w
v w PSv . T v v CIS jy Sv R j E U Jy 1 2015.
T w y v w integrationhadbeensincethefirstinstancesof E E U. T y v y v y EAEC w ECU EES y EAEC.
S Ty E E Cy 2001 y. T y v v vv E . Mv y E w EAEC ECU/EES. F
Figr 1. Mj M I EAEC C 20012010 %Source: http://www.evrazes.com
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w thefiveEurAsECmemberstatesintheperiod 2001 2010.
Fy y EAEC q y w y tors.Thatgrowthwasexperiencedinallthefive EAEC w (F 1).
T GDP indicator,increasedinthefivecountries;forex w w 141% Kyy 198% Tj. T w w Kyy x B. I vy w w investment into thefixedcapital thatprovided w. Thoseindicatorsgrewin theallfivecountries
E E Cy 184% Kyy x 428% B.
Hwv qv y EAEC is not suffice. The background global trends w. T w E E Cy w y w w w .
I GDP w 20012010 EAEC w GDP w EAEC w w w v (F 2).
Figr 2. GDP Gw R EAEC C w G GDP Gw R 20012010
Source: http://www.evrazes.com and http://data.worldbank.org
T GDP w x w v jy EAEC . W v w w y 20012008 amountedto3%,thatfiguremeasured9.4%in
K 8.9% Tj 8.3% B 6.6% R 4.9% Kyy vy. D 2009 2010 EAEC w v GDP w.
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Mv v w wassignificantlyhigherboth in the individual EAEC Cy w w v.
A GDP w . T w cause intensificationof tradevolume isconsi- in the first place. Therefore, free trade zones
. I EAEC 20012010. Sy GDP analysis above, these figures are, then, com w w v .F 3 w y E E Cy w w x. A w w EAEC w w y 3.1 ( $31.1 $95.2 ) w w x y y 2.5 ( $6194 $15283 ).
Figr 3. F T EAEC 20012010 C w W AvSources: http://www.evrazes.com and http://unctad
T w w EAEC x w v. Hwv v EA
EC w Cy w w . T 1 w tradeofthefiveEurAsECmemberstatesfrom2001 2010.
T v w EAEC w 2001 2010 . W v w EAEC w tradefigureswiththerestoftheworld,thesitu w: B w w w y 3.8 w w EAEC by3times.ForKazakhstan,thosefigureswere5.9 3.4 vy; Kyy w 5.3 5.6; R w 4.4 2.9
Tj’ w w w w y 2.9 w EAEC y 2.3 . T EAEC w w Cy.
A x w w EAEC w v w 2001 2010 w w : B y 3.4 2.6 vy; Kazakhstan, the figures were 6.9 and 2.8; inKyy w 3.7 4.5
* I U.
al 1. F T Ex EAEC C 20012010 $
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; R’ w w w w 4 w EAEC w 3.5. T Tj : y 1.8 x w y 31% EAEC.
T v w EAEC x Kyy w w w Tj w EAEC v w v w.
T EAEC x . T w ( ) x w y EAEC. A w EAEC w y .
I 2001 2010 w vy w y qy . T w y j v v . Ay
w x w y w x EAEC y 2011 w . T EAEC. T v w y EAEC w EEU.
; v v; ; y y; y ; ;-financialmarkets(banking,insurance,cur
y ); ; .T ECU w E
B K R
y v w v x .
W y ECU v w . Fy y y w 2011 w EUC y x 2007 w w y . Sy y y y . A v w() j ECU w . Y yeardataisnotenoughtomakeafinalconclu . Hwv y .
T v ECU countries increased during the two firsty w w 2013 y (F 4).
Figr 4. B T EES 20112013Source: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
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R x 2013 91.2% 2012 w v w 94.1% K w B x y 3.4 %. I w w ECU w x 2011. I 2011 w 134% w v y whereasin2013thefigurewasonly94.5%.
B w y y y x EES w . T B EES v 27.6 % w R K v w. T K y w y 2.2%. T v w EES w q y (F 5).
Figr 5. S EES M S T M T EES 20112013Source: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
A v oftradein2013wassignificant,amoreimportantobservationwouldbe that itwas thefirst y ECU/EES x w w w w x
v (T 3). I 2011 2012 v w ECU/EES x q y x y ECU/EES, in2013,however, thefigureswere94.5%. 98.6% vy (T 3).
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al 3. M T w ECU By Ix***
rad wit ird Cntri tal rad wit ECU Cntr
V Ex I Ex 2011 1322 133 1308 13392012 1030 1021 1046 10752013 996 986 1014 945
Source: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
D ww 2013 y C U’ x v w ECU w y U 2011 2012. T w x ww 2013.
A E E C w y R B: ( 2012 w 2011 v y 1 5 ). W x y w w ECU/EES w JyD 2012 y 0.3 [6].
A j wy y
w ECUEES 2013 w y . M y w y ECU .
T x v w w ECU larkindofcommodities(Figure6).Thefigurew v y y y IMF w w ECU/EES; x y Jy 2011 Nv 2013.
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
Mutual trade indexIMF Fuel (Energy) IndexIMF Metals Price Index
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
ECU/EES Mutual Trade ECU/EES Trade with ThirdCountries
hides and skins, fur and consumergoods there ofwood, timber and pulp
textile, textile goods and food-wear
chemicals, caoutchouc; agriculturalraw materials (excluding textile)chemicals, caoutchouc; agriculturalraw materials (excluding textile)metals and metal products
Machinery, equipment and Vehicles
mineral products
Figr 6. M T w ECU W P F M CSources: http://www.eurasiancommission.org and http://www.imf.org
*** T x w v y.
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T v ECU w w y w w ECU 2011 2013.
T ECU w vy w w x w. T j wy x :
vy x EES CIS. I x y CIS “ ” xvy . T 2013 x y CIS 98.6 % [7].
I v w EES x y (F 7).
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
Mutual trade indexIMF Fuel (Energy) IndexIMF Metals Price Index
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
ECU/EES Mutual Trade ECU/EES Trade with ThirdCountries
hides and skins, fur and consumergoods there ofwood, timber and pulp
textile, textile goods and food-wear
chemicals, caoutchouc; agriculturalraw materials (excluding textile)chemicals, caoutchouc; agriculturalraw materials (excluding textile)metals and metal products
Machinery, equipment and Vehicles
mineral products
Figr 7. S M T w ECU/EES w O C 2013 %Source: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
As it can be seen onfigure above, the ex EES w y w .. (81.5%); y w y 45.9 %. T x EES w y theconsiderablefluctuationsoftheworldcom ( w vy y)
w y w .
Gv v w v x EES w v v w. T v y w w w w; v w EES y x x y.
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T w j wy w y ECU/EES w EAEC v w w y Cy w EAEC . T w w w w vy y y x w. A v w .
A v y y w . T y v 20122013 y wv y v. T v v y 2012 w 2011 y 2013 2012 (F 8).
Figr 8. M Iv EES $Source: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
T v w theECU/EESisnotsufficetorevealanytrends . F x q w remembertheinvestmentflowsthatweretechy y EES y w EES . T insufficientlengthoftheperiodwhenthedataw v y y
v w ECU/EES. Mv v v w ECU/EES w . T wy vy. F v v q 2011 (F 7) w y w R Gazprom 50% B Beltransgaz $2.5 y
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100% [8]. T v v w ECU/EES y y y v .
T v ECU v v y ECU
y y . I v wv v K B notsignificantfortheeconomyofRussia,while v EES y R B K vy (T. 4).
al 4. D Iv EES C T FDI EES %
2011 2012 1t Half-ar 2013
B 705 307 373K 79 87 137R 03 08 03
Source: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
T v w R vmentswereespeciallysignificantfortheeconoy B ( w y FDI K B). T v Gazprom 2011; R v vy 2012 2013. S ECU K y w y v ticipation in the cooperation in thefieldof in
v w E w y .
K’ v y thecooperationinthefieldofinvestmentwithin ECU/EES. F w y y EES v (T 4) v ECU/ESS (F 9).
Figr 9. G FDI EES K $Source: http://www.nationalbank.kz
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S 2010 w y w FDI R B K; v w x FDI . F 2009 2012 v FDI K y 346% w v R w y 611 % B 45 .
T w w y y v ECU/EES . Hwv v w y w x ; x w w 20072009 FDI R K 2009 v.
I x v y qvy v w gle financial market enabling the participants w ECU/EES .
It is also noteworthy that Kazakhstan’s fi vv R B w y FDI “ v” “ v”. I v v (y w) K R 3 q 2013 w $7.585 w FDI w y $672 . T v v K R w v y $310 . A v R K w w figuresof$4006and$38million respectivelyx v v w $2.034 [9].
T w v FDI y w .
Prct f Eraian Intgratin ndr t Eraian Ecnic Unin
T y E E U w 2014. T E E U Jy 1 2015. T Ty w w vy w U w . T Ty w w U: y y taxes,monetary policy and financialmarkets, y v v .
T v v. I x y ; v w v ( C U) y v .
I EEU . Cy thefirststagesofitsestablishment,notonlypo w w v w w [10].
B v EEU w y x y y w w . Ty U v w EAEC y E Dv B C F C H Ty w P
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y Ay EAEC C .
T E E U E E Cy. B My 2013 F Dy P M R I Svv EAEC w x E E Cy w E E U Jy 1 2015 [11].
Thesecondmostsignificantinitiative-artic y F Dy P M R I Svv M 2014 asinglesupranationalfinancialbankingregula y 2025 w K.
T U y w w w y v v w . A finally consolidated, theUnion is supposed to w y y y y y x . I w v v v v x .
A P Nyv K E E U j q y . T EEU w thefinancialandeconomiccrisis[3].
P P R v thesignificanceoftheEEUforestablishingthe w y U w w y y
v [12].
P L B U v v . H w y haveaverydefinedhierarchyintermsofthele U . P B S C Iv C w [13].
T E E U v v y eficial in terms of economic prospects for theEEU . T v v v y bemoreefficientbecausechoiceshallincrease w. T v y v w y oftheEEU.Thisisverysignificantforsmaller y B K.
T v E E U w v v y (v EEU cificallyatdevelopment)torealizetheprojects w w . T U’ y v q x w .
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T v w EEU v . T w v . I v x . Iy v EEU w y ; w w GDP, the greater shall the positive influence
SOURCES:
1. Alma-Ata. Protocol. http://www.cis.minsk.2. Назарбаев Н.А. Выступление в МГУ им. Ломоносова 29 марта 1994 г.
Н.А.Назарбаев. Том II. Избранные речи 1991-1995 гг. – Астана. ИД «Сарыарка», 2009., сс. 439-440.
3. Назарбаев Н.A. Евразийский Союз: От идеи к истории будущего. «Известия-Казахстан», 26 октября 2011 г.
4. Евразийское Экономическое Сообщество. История. Официальный сайт ЕврАзЭС. http://www.evrazes.com.
5. Евразийская экономическая интеграция: цифры и факты. Евразийская экономическая комиссия, 2014. сс. 6-7. ttp://www.eurasiancommission.org.
6. Об итогах внешней и взаимной торговли товарами Таможенного союза и Единого экономического пространства за январь-декабрь 2013 г. Евразийская экономическая комиссия, 2014. http://www.eurasiancommis-sion.org.
7. Экспорт и импорт товаров ТС и ЕЭП по укрупненным товарным группам в торговле со странами вне СНГ. Товарная структура внешней торговли государств - членов ТС и ЕЭП. Евразийская экономическая комиссия. http://www.eurasiancommission.org.
8. Долева, А.А. Прямые иностранные инвестиции в Беларусь. NovaBelarus.com. СЕНТЯБРЬ - 7 – 2012. http://ru.novabelarus.com.
9. Международная инвестиционная позиция (МИП) Казахстана по странам. Международная инвестиционная позиция. Национальный банк Республики Казахстан, 2014. http://www.nationalbank.kz.
10. Сагинтаев Б.А. Предмет договора ЕЭС - исключительно экономическое сотрудничество - первый вице-премьер РК. 08 Апреля 2014. http://www.kazpravda.kz.
11. Шувалов И.И. Все институты ЕврАзЭС будут погружены в Евразийский экономический союз с 2015 года -- первый вице-премьер России. Агентство Синьхуа, 2013-05-30. http://russian.cri.cn.
12. Путин B.В. Евразийский экономический союз заработает с 2015 года. Российская газета, 05.03.2014. http://www.rg.ru.
13. Лукашенко А.Г. Евразийский экономический союз должен быть международной организацией. БелТА, 24 декабря 2013. http://www.belta.by/ru.
y v v.
Тhe other reason why membership in theEEU y v y . F x y x EEU v v. A GDP w EEU y ( w w) GDP w y x 0306% y U’ x.