15 th November 2021 K2fly Ltd is a research client of RaaS Advisory Pty Ltd, t/a Research as a Service. This report should be read in conjunction with the disclaimers & financial services guide on pgs 20-22. Business model K2F licenses software together with associated consulting and implementation services to large/enterprise mining companies around the world. Key software products centre around mineral resources and reserves governance (RCubed), community and heritage/land access (Infoscope), mining technical assurance (Sateva), and dams and tailings management (Decipher). New contracts typically involve an implementation fee and then annual recurring license payments (SaaS fees). Contract durations are typically between three-to-five years (average 3.4 years) with a strong probability of renewal as they become embedded in the key work processes of clients. Utilising existing client relationships, K2F is looking to increase the number of software solutions a client purchases through product development and marketing. Contract size and breadth of use by existing customers is key Over the past few years, K2F’s average contract size has progressively increased per half year, an indication of the increasing acceptance, size of the customer and expanding product portfolio offering. The recent tailings contract announcement with Sibanye-Stillwater was the company’s largest with a TCV of A$2.85m over five years but was quickly eclipsed by the subsequent ground disturbance contract with Rio Tinto with a TCV of $3.44m over five years. K2F now counts five of the world’s 10 largest gold miners by production volume and three of the four largest Australian iron ore miners as customers. With most of these clients typically using just one of the group’s products, there is significant opportunity to cross-sell new and existing solutions, further increasing contract size and duration. Valuation of $0.56/share or $78m market cap We have selected the DCF methodology to value K2F given the early stages of product development and market penetration relative to our selected peers. The resulting valuation is $0.56/share which incorporates a WACC of 10.4%, CAGR revenue growth in the forecast period of 35%, medium term growth of 12%, SaaS reaching 80% of total revenues (from 38%) and gross margins peaking at 70% (from 53%). This valuation does imply 10x FY21 EV/sales or almost twice the current peer average, but we would highlight K2F is well behind peers in terms of listed history, product availability and SaaS/Services mix. K2fly Limited Initiation Report Set to fly higher on ESG tailwinds Share Details ASX code K2F Share price (12 Nov) $0.31 Market capitalisation $43.1M Shares on issue 138.0M Net cash at 30 Sep 2021 $5.6M Free float 54.36% Share Performance (12 months) Upside case New contracts with new mining customers New/existing products with existing clients Product development/acquisitions Downside Case Large customers take software solutions in- house Fail to achieve contract renewals or renew at significantly lower prices Loss of key people Board of Directors Brian Miller Executive Director Jenny Cutri Non-Executive Chair Neil Canby Non-Executive Director James Deacon Non-Executive Director K2fly Contacts Brian Miller (Exec Dir) [email protected]+61 422 227 489 Nic Pollock (CEO) [email protected]+61 419 280 700 RaaS Contacts John Burgess +61 410 439 723 [email protected]Finola Burke +61 414 354 712 [email protected]Software & Services K2fly Ltd (ASX:K2F) is an enterprise software and services provider across a range of environment, social and corporate governance (ESG) solutions for the mining industry. The group currently has nine solutions on the market which include resource and reserves reporting, land management and tailings management. The combination of acquiring niche software with existing users, continuous improvement of product features, and utilising a five-person-strong internal sales team to sell products into both existing and new users has seen an acceleration in both the number and size of contracts in recent quarters. The RCubed resource and reserve solution provides K2F with exceptional access to the head offices of large global miners, delivering an ideal platform from which to “land and expand”. Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), for example, is now using five of K2F’s nine products on the market. The last two contract announcements have been records in terms of total contract value (TCV) and position the group for an acceleration in revenue growth in FY22. We initiate coverage with a base case valuation of $0.56/share or $78m market cap. Historical earnings and RaaS estimates Year end TCV* (A$m) Revenue (A$m) Adj EBITDA (A$m) Adj NPAT (A$m) EPS (adj) (c) P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) 06/21a 9.9 7.0 (2.0) (2.1) (0.016) nm 3.2 06/22e 21.5 11.2 (0.9) (0.9) 0.002 nm 3.2 06/23e 37.0 16.6 2.2 1.2 0.018 17.5 2.4 06/24e 48.1 21.5 5.4 3.3 0.033 9.3 1.8 Source: Company announcements for FY21, RaaS estimates FY22e, FY23e and FY24e *Total Contract Value $- $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45
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15th November 2021
K2fly Ltd is a research client of RaaS Advisory Pty Ltd, t/a Research as a Service. This report should be read in conjunction with the disclaimers & financial services guide on pgs 20-22.
Business model K2F licenses software together with associated consulting and implementation services to large/enterprise mining companies around the world. Key software products centre around mineral resources and reserves governance (RCubed), community and heritage/land access (Infoscope), mining technical assurance (Sateva), and dams and tailings management (Decipher). New contracts typically involve an implementation fee and then annual recurring license payments (SaaS fees). Contract durations are typically between three-to-five years (average 3.4 years) with a strong probability of renewal as they become embedded in the key work processes of clients. Utilising existing client relationships, K2F is looking to increase the number of software solutions a client purchases through product development and marketing.
Contract size and breadth of use by existing customers is key Over the past few years, K2F’s average contract size has progressively increased per half year, an indication of the increasing acceptance, size of the customer and expanding product portfolio offering. The recent tailings contract announcement with Sibanye-Stillwater was the company’s largest with a TCV of A$2.85m over five years but was quickly eclipsed by the subsequent ground disturbance contract with Rio Tinto with a TCV of $3.44m over five years. K2F now counts five of the world’s 10 largest gold miners by production volume and three of the four largest Australian iron ore miners as customers. With most of these clients typically using just one of the group’s products, there is significant opportunity to cross-sell new and existing solutions, further increasing contract size and duration.
Valuation of $0.56/share or $78m market cap We have selected the DCF methodology to value K2F given the early stages of product development and market penetration relative to our selected peers. The resulting valuation is $0.56/share which incorporates a WACC of 10.4%, CAGR revenue growth in the forecast period of 35%, medium term growth of 12%, SaaS reaching 80% of total revenues (from 38%) and gross margins peaking at 70% (from 53%). This valuation does imply 10x FY21 EV/sales or almost twice the current peer average, but we would highlight K2F is well behind peers in terms of listed history, product availability and SaaS/Services mix.
K2fly Limited Initiation Report
Set to fly higher on ESG tailwinds
Share Details
ASX code K2F
Share price (12 Nov) $0.31
Market capitalisation $43.1M
Shares on issue 138.0M
Net cash at 30 Sep 2021
$5.6M
Free float 54.36%
Share Performance (12 months)
Upside case
New contracts with new mining customers
New/existing products with existing clients
Product development/acquisitions
Downside Case
Large customers take software solutions in-house
Fail to achieve contract renewals or renew at significantly lower prices
K2fly Ltd (ASX:K2F) is an enterprise software and services provider across a range of
environment, social and corporate governance (ESG) solutions for the mining
industry. The group currently has nine solutions on the market which include resource
and reserves reporting, land management and tailings management. The combination
of acquiring niche software with existing users, continuous improvement of product
features, and utilising a five-person-strong internal sales team to sell products into
both existing and new users has seen an acceleration in both the number and size of
contracts in recent quarters. The RCubed resource and reserve solution provides K2F
with exceptional access to the head offices of large global miners, delivering an ideal
platform from which to “land and expand”. Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), for example, is now
using five of K2F’s nine products on the market. The last two contract announcements
have been records in terms of total contract value (TCV) and position the group for an
acceleration in revenue growth in FY22. We initiate coverage with a base case
valuation of $0.56/share or $78m market cap.
Historical earnings and RaaS estimates
Year end
TCV* (A$m) Revenue (A$m)
Adj EBITDA (A$m)
Adj NPAT (A$m)
EPS (adj) (c)
P/E (x)
EV/Sales
(x)
06/21a 9.9 7.0 (2.0) (2.1) (0.016) nm 3.2
06/22e 21.5 11.2 (0.9) (0.9) 0.002 nm 3.2
06/23e 37.0 16.6 2.2 1.2 0.018 17.5 2.4
06/24e 48.1 21.5 5.4 3.3 0.033 9.3 1.8
Source: Company announcements for FY21, RaaS estimates FY22e, FY23e and FY24e *Total Contract Value
$-
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
2 K2fly Ltd I 15th November 2021
Table of Contents Business model ................................................................................................................................. 1
Contract size and breadth of use by existing customers is key ......................................................... 1
Valuation of $0.56/share or $78m market cap ................................................................................. 1
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