Jyoti Structures -IC - Business Standardsmartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/jyoti... · Jyoti Structures Capital Goods Company Background Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL),

1January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539October 1, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 1

Jyoti StructuresInitiating Coverage

Puneet Bambha

Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 347

E-mail: [email protected]

Stock Info

BUYPrice Rs156

Target Price Rs204

Investment Period 12 months

Sector Capital Goods

Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,276

Beta 0.9

52 Week High / Low 174/33

Avg Daily Volume 76466

Face Value (Rs) 2

BSE Sensex 17,135

Nifty 5,083

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 26.8

MF / Banks / Indian FIs 36.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 23.8

Indian Public / Others 12.9

Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (%) 17.0 31.2 37.6

JSL (%) 13.0 74.0 36.2

BSE Code 513250

NSE Code JYOTISTRUC

Reuters Code JYTS.BO

Bloomberg Code JYS@IN

Source: Company, Angel Research

Key FinancialsY/E Mar (Rs Cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

Net Sales 1,370 1,717 2,116 2,604

% chg 41.2 25.3 23.3 23.0

Adj. Net Profit 72 80 100 128

% chg 31.6 10.1 25.8 27.7

EBITDA (%) 12.5 11.4 11.0 10.9

EPS (Rs) 8.9 9.7 12.3 15.7

P/E (x) 17.6 16.0 12.7 10.0

P/BV (x) 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.1

RoE (%) 23.6 21.1 21.8 22.7

RoCE (%) 19.7 19.6 19.3 19.7

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 7.9 6.9 5.8

Domestic PowerJyoti Structures Limited (JSL) is among the top three players in the Transmission EngineeringProcurement Construction (EPC) space in India. We believe that the company would continueto ride high on the back of the massive investments lined-up in the Transmission sector of thecountry. During FY2009-11E, we expect the company to register a Top-line and Bottom-lineCAGR of 23.1% and 26.8%, respectively. At the current price of Rs156, the stock is quoting at12.7x and at 10.0x its FY2010E and FY2011E EPS, respectively, which we believe is attractive.We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with a Buy recommendation and a Target Price ofRs204.

Huge Opportunity for Transmission EPC Players: The government has envisaged aninvestment of Rs140,000cr in the Transmission segment for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan,which is an increase of over two times from the investments made in the Tenth Plan period.The scale gets even bigger for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, with a planned investment of aroundRs240,000cr. As per our estimates, this has opened up a potential US $14-15bn of opportunityfor Transmission EPC players during the Eleventh Plan period alone. Besides, Power GridCorporation of India (PGCIL), India's largest transmission utility, having spent only around27% of its planned capex during the first two years of the plan, is all set to accelerate its capexduring the remaining years, which, in turn, would translate into higher order inflows for thetransmission EPC sector.

Healthy Order Book provides Revenue visibility: JSL has a healthy order book ofRs3,959cr (2.3x its FY2009 revenues), which provides good revenue visibility to the companyand cushions it from short-term order fluctuations. Besides, the company's large domesticpresence (with exports constituting only around 5% of its order backlog) helps to insulate itsmargins from raw material price fluctuations and from volatile currency movements.

Financials on a Strong wicket: Backed by the healthy order book and high visbililty, weexpect the company to register a strong revenue and net profit CAGR of 23.1% and 26.8%,respectively, during FY2009-11E. The return ratios are also expected to remain healthy, withaverage RoEs hovering around the 22-23% levels.


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Company Background

Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL), incorporated in 1974, is among the top three players in theTransmission Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) space in the country. The companyprovides complete turnkey solutions that involve the setting up of both transmission lines (up to800kV) and of substations (up to 400kV). JSL offers a complete range of services, includingdesigning, engineering consulting, tower testing, manufacturing, construction and projectmanagement. Over the years, the company has expanded its operations, to around 40 countriescurrently.

Among the top three players inthe Transmission EPC spacein the country

Corporate Structure

JSL has four subsidiary companies, JSL Structures, JSL Corporate Services, Jyoti Energy andJyoti Structures Africa. Besides, the company owns a 30% stake in the Gulf Jyoti InternationalLLC, a joint venture with the Gulf Investment Corporation, established for tapping opportunities inthe Gulf region.


Exhibit 2: Corporate Structure

Jyoti Structures Ltd

JSL Structures

(98.6%)

JSL CorporateServices

(100%)

Jyoti Energy

(100%)

Jyoti StructuresAfrica (Pty.)

(70%)

Gulf JyotiInternational

(30%)

Source: C-line, Angel Research

Exhibit 1: Shareholding Pattern (%)


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Manufacturing Facilities

The company has two manufacturing plants, located at Nashik (Maharashtra) and Raipur(Chhattisgarh), capable of making prototypes, fabricating and galvanizing transmission towersand structures, microwave towers, windmill tower, and railway electrification structures, up to83,000MT per annum. This, coupled with the 27,000MT of capacity with its subsidiary, JSLStructures, takes the total combined capacity for the company to 110,000MT per annum. Additionally,JSL also has an in-house tower testing station at Ghoti, Igatpuri.

Total combined capacity forthe company at 110,000MT perannum

Transmission segmentaccounts for around 70% of itsFY2009 revenues

Business Segments

JSL offers its solution through three core business segments, Transmission, Substations andRural Electrification and Distribution. The Transmission segment continues to be the major revenuedriver for the company, accounting for around 70% of its FY2009 revenues, with the balance beingcontributed equally by both the remaining segments.


Exhibit 3: Increasing Capacity Utilisation

Installed Capacity (LHS) Production (LHS) Capacity Utilisation (RHS)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

(%)

(M

Tp

.a.)


Exhibit 4: FY2009 Segmental Revenue Share (%)


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Industry OverviewPower - A Structural Growth Driver

The Indian Power Sector has been bogged down by several chronic problems for long, such aslower-than-targeted capacity addition in various five-year plans, a low Plant Load Factor (PLF),high AT&C losses, woes over the financial viability of State Electricity Boards (SEBs), a high baseand peak load deficits. Notably, the base power deficit has inched upwards over the years, toaround 11.0% in FY2009, with the peak load deficit also hovering at around 12.0% levels.

The government, after taking cognisance of the fact that the acute power shortage in India couldturn out to be one of the biggest obstacles in our growth story, has been taking several initiativesto turn around the fortunes of this core sector. The Electricity Act 2003 and subsequent reformshave been undertaken to accelerate the growth of power in the country. The scale of expansionplanned across the entire value-chain is unprecedented, opening up a plethora of opportunitiesfor the players in the sector, to participate in the ongoing Power boom.

Exhibit 6: Massive Capex Envisaged across the Value-Chain (Rs cr)

11th Plan 12th Plan Total

Generation 410,896 495,083 905,979

Transmission 140,000 240,000 380,000

Distribution (including rural electrification) 287,000 400,000 687,000

Total 837,896 1,135,083 1,972,979Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Angel Research

GenerationThough the per capita consumption of electricity in our country has increased over the past fewyears to 704kWh, it continues to be far below the world average of around 2,596kWh. Thegovernment has embarked on an ambitious plan of promoting "Power for all by 2012", and increasingthe per capita consumption of electricity to over 1,000kWh by FY2012E. To this effect, thegovernment has planned capacity addition of 78,700MW during the Eleventh Plan period. Assumingaround a 60% achievement rate, it would result in capacity addition of about 45-50GW - implyinga phenomenal 123% growth over the 21,180MW capacity added during the Tenth Plan period.Pertinently, the scale gets even bigger for the Twelfth Five Year plan, with a planned capacityaddition of over 100GW.

Source: Ministry of Power (MoP), Angel Research

Exhibit 5: India - A Power Deficit Country

Base Deficit Peak Deficit

8.1

5.9 6.27.8 7.5

8.8

7.1 7.38.4

9.6 9.911.0

11.3

13.912.4 13.0

11.8 12.211.2 11.7 12.3

13.8

16.6

12.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.01

99

7-9

8

19

98-

99

19

99-

00

20

00-

01

20

01-

02

20

02-

03

20

03-

04

20

04-

05

20

05-

06

20

06-

07

20

07-

08

20

08-

09

(%)

Power shortage in the country,with a high base and peak loaddeficits

Massive scale of expansionplanned across the entirevalue-chain


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Source: CEA, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: Huge Capacity Addition Plans

Target (LHS) Achievement (LHS) % (RHS)

84.6

64.3 64.2

49.4

81.6

72.3

96.2

53.847.2

51.5

60.0

75.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XIE XIIE

(%)

(MW

)

Transmission

Globally, for every rupee invested in generation, an equivalent amount is invested in T&D as well.In India, this ratio has been hovering at around 0.5, implying that, for every rupee invested ingeneration, only 50 paise is invested in T&D. This has resulted in an excess loading of thetransmission lines, and the government is trying to incrementally boost the corresponding investmentin the T&D space. Hence, the government has envisaged an investment of Rs140,000cr in theTransmission segment for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, which is an increase of over two timesfrom the investments made in the Tenth Plan period. The scale gets even bigger for the TwelfthFive-Year Plan, with a planned investment of around Rs240,000cr.


Exhibit 8: Transmission Capacity Targets - Eleventh and Twelfth PlansEnd of End of End of End of End of End of End of

6th Plan 7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan

Transmission Lines (ckm)

765kV - - - 1,160 2,184 7,612 37,612

HVDC 500kV - 1,634 1,634 4,738 5,872 7,478 7,478

HVDC 800/600kV - - - - - 3,600 8,600

400kV 6,029 19,824 36,142 49,378 75,722 125,000 175,000

220kV 46,005 59,631 79,600 96,993 114,629 150,000 190,000

Total 52,034 81,089 117,376 152,269 198,407 293,690 418,690

Sub Stations (MW/MVA)

HVDC B/B - - 500 2,000 3,000 3,500 3,500

HVDC Bipole+Monopole - - 1,500 3,200 5,200 10,700 32,700

Total-HVDC Capacity (MW) - - 2,000 5,200 8,200 14,200 36,200

765kV - - - - - 53,000 163,000

400kV 9,330 21,580 40,865 60,380 92,942 145,000 225,000

220kV 37,291 53,742 84,177 116,363 156,497 230,000 325,000

Total- AC Substation Capacity (MVA) 46,621 75,322 125,042 176,743 249,439 428,000 713,000

For every rupee invested inGeneration, only 50 paise hasbeen invested in Indian T&D


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

National Grid Capacity Expansion Plan

Some regions of the country do not have adequate natural resources for setting up power plantsto meet their future requirements, whereas others have abundant natural resources. Due to thisuneven distribution of natural resources, the government has envisaged the expansion of thenational grid capacity, from around 14,100MW at the end of Tenth Plan period to over 38,000MWduring the Eleventh Plan period, followed by an increase to around 75,750MW in the Twelfth Planperiod.

Distribution

One of the major reasons for the power deficit in the country is the exceptionally high T&D loss, ofaround 30%. Although several initiatives taken by the government have led to a slight reduction inthe same, it is still way above the world-wide average of around 15%. Systemic inefficiencies,including the unplanned extension of distribution lines, and the overloading of system elementslike transformers and conductors, are the key reasons for the same. Moreover, the non-metering,non-billing and the pilferage of power have also substantially compounded the problem.


Exhibit 9: Inter-Regional Transmission Capacity Plan

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

FY2002 FY2007 FY2012E FY2017E

(MW

)

CAGR of

18.3%


Exhibit 10: High T&D Losses

32.5 32.531.3 30.4

28.6

32.534.8 34.3 34.5

32.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

(%)

T&D Losses AT&C Losses

National Grid capacityexpansion being undertaken,to around 38,000MW duringthe Eleventh Plan Period

Exceptionally high T&D loss ofaround 30%


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme (APDRP)

Such a high level of losses had prompted the government to launch the APDRP in 2001. Theobjective of the programme was to strengthen the Sub-Transmission and Distribution network,and to bring down the AT&C losses to below the 15% level. The original scheme had an outlay ofRs40,000cr, bifurcated equally between the Investment and the Incentive components. However,the failure of the scheme, with a far slower-than-expected reduction in losses compelled thegovernment to restructure the APDRP.

The restructured scheme has a planned outlay of Rs51,577cr, with a target to reduce losses to15% levels by the end of the Eleventh Plan. Notably, the new scheme lays an increased focus onthe actual, demonstrable performance, in terms of a sustained loss reduction. The detailedbreak-up of the restructured APDRP is as follows:

Rs50,000cr for Part A and Part B of the projects. Part A (Rs10,000cr) includes the preparationof base-line data, adoption of IT applications, energy auditing and accounting. Part B (Rs40,000cr)includes the renovation and modernisation of substations, transformers and distributionstrengthening projects.

Rs1,177cr for enabling activities, to be implemented by the Ministry of Power.

Rs400cr for incentives to the utility staff of the project areas.

Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidhyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY)

The government also introduced the RGGVY in April 2005 for providing electricity access to all therural households, over a period of four years. Under the scheme, a 90% capital subsidy is to beprovided for rural-electrification infrastructure, while the balance 10% is to be given as loanassistance on soft terms by the REC. Besides, the scheme also provided for funding theelectrification of all un-electrified, below-poverty-line households, with a 100% capital subsidy.Under this scheme, in the Tenth and Eleventh Plans combined, total projects worth Rs26,455crhave already been sanctioned.

Restructured APDRP scheme,with a planned outlay ofRs51,577cr


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Investment Arguments

Huge Opportunity for Transmission EPC Players

As per our estimates, the huge power capex envisaged by the government for the Eleventh Planperiod has opened up a potential US $14-15bn of opportunity for Transmission EPC players.Apart from envisaging an investment of Rs140,000cr for the Transmission space in the EleventhPlan (an increase of over two times from the Tenth Plan), the government has earmarked asignificant increase in the investments for the APDRP and RGGVY schemes. Hence, JyotiStructures, being one of the top three players in this space, would tend to be a key beneficiary ofthe same.

Typically, out of the total Transmission-spend, about 50% goes towards Transmission Lines, whilethe balance 50% goes towards Substations. However, 30% of the Transmission Line spend and65% of the Substation spend constitute bought-out items, such as conductors, insulators,transformers and other electrical equipments. Thus, around 50% of the total Transmission capexworks out to be a potential opportunity for transmission EPC players, which includes engineering,tower supply, design and testing, and civil construction. Besides, of the total APDRP and RGGVYspend, about 15-20% works out to be an opportunity for EPC players, as these typically involve ahigher proportion of bought-out items. Hence, assuming about an 80-85% achievement rate forthe total planned capex, it throws up a potential opportunity of around US $14-15bn for EPCplayers. Additionally, the industry assumes a bigger scale during the Twelfth Plan period, with apotential opportunity of over US $20bn.

Source: MoP, CEA, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Huge Opportunity for Transmission EPC players (Rs cr)

10th Plan 11th Plan % growth

Transmission 44,740 140,000 213

APDRP 17,034 51,577 203

RGGVY 9,733 16,722 72

Total 71,507 208,299 191

Source: Industry, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Transmission Capex ComponentsComponents % SpendTransmission Lines (50%)Design and Testing 10Towers 30Conductors and Insulators 30Construction 30Total 100Substation (50%)Engineering and Design 10Transformers 30Switchgears, circuit breakers etc. 35Civil work 25Total 100

Potential US $14-15bn ofopportunity for TransmissionEPC players during theEleventh plan period


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Healthy Order Book provides Revenue visibility

JSL has a healthy order book of Rs3,959cr (2.3x its FY2009 revenues), which provides goodrevenue visibility to the company and cushions it from short-term order fluctuations. Some of thekey contracts in the company's fold include - the Rs500cr Reliance Power's, Western systemstrengthening BOOT (Build, Own, Operate and Transfer) project, the Rs833cr order from theMaharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company (MSEDCL), won jointly with Areva T&D, for acombination of 220kV and 132kV substations, and associated transmission lines.

PGCIL to accelerate capex

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL), India's largest transmission utility, is singularlyresponsible for capex of Rs55,000cr in the Transmission segment, during the Eleventh Planperiod. Yet, having spent only around 27% of this planned capex during the first two years of theplan, the company is all set to accelerate its capex during the remaining years, which, in turn,would translate into higher order inflows for the transmission EPC sector. Notably, PGCIL hasplanned a capex of around Rs11,500cr for FY2010E - an increase of 42% from the Rs8,095cr thatit spent in FY2009.

Source: PGCIL, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: PGCIL's Growing Capex

6,615

8,095

11,50012,500

16,500

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

(Rs

cr)


Exhibit 14: Order Book Coverage

1.82.0

2.22.1

1.91.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

(R

scr)

Order Backlog (LHS) Revenues (LHS) Coverage Ratio (RHS)

Having spent only around 27%of the planned capex duringthe first two years, PGCIL is allset to accelerate its capex

Healthy order book, whichprovides good revenuevisibility and cushions fromshort-term order fluctuations


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

A large domestic presencehelps to insulate margins fromraw material price fluctuations

Trying to tap internationalopportunities, through variousstrategic tie-ups

Compared to its peers, JSL has a large domestic presence, with exports constituting only around5% of the company's order backlog. Notably, while domestic orders generally include a PriceVariation Clause (PVC), international orders are awarded on a fixed-price basis. Hence, a largedomestic presence helps to insulate the company's margins from raw material price fluctuationsand from volatile currency movements. We believe that with the key raw material prices risingagain in the last couple of quarters, it augurs well for JSL, as the increased costs would majorly bea pass-through for the company.

Overseas presence through Tie-ups

After making a strong footprint in the domestic market, the company is trying to spread its wingsand tap international opportunities, through various strategic tie-ups. To this effect, JSL has enteredinto strategic alliances in the Gulf and the South African markets, with local partners.

Gulf Jyoti International: Jyoti Structure owns a 30% stake in Gulf Jyoti International LLC, a jointventure with the Gulf Investment Corporation, established for tapping opportunities in the Gulfregion. As per the agreement, Jyoti is entitled to receive 15% of the JV's profits (before calculatingits 30% share of profits as the owner), as management fees, over and above its 30% share ofprofits.

Jyoti Structures Africa (Pty.): In FY2008, JSL formed another joint venture company (where itholds a 70% stake) under the name of Jyoti Structures Africa, in Johannesburg, with a local SouthAfrican partner, with the aim to participate in the transmission line market of Southern Africa. TheJV does not have a local manufacturing facility and the towers are being imported from the Indianfacilities. However, the JV is currently facing the brunt of the slowdown, with extremely scantyorders in hand.

Exploring BOOT / BOOM Projects

To catch up with the changing trend and to bag EPC orders, JSL is also trying to explore opportunitiesin BOOT (Build, Own, Operate and Transfer), and BOOM (Build, Own, Operate and Maintain)projects, as an asset owner. To this effect, the company has already submitted a pre-qualificationbid in a Rs700cr HVPNL (Haryana Vidyut Prasaran Nigam) project, and is exploring another Rs650crRRVPNL (Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam) project. However, given the huge fundingrequirements in this space, Jyoti will have to enter into strategic tie-ups with other players for theexecution of the same. Our interaction with the management also suggested that the companywould infact prefer to continue as an EPC player.


Exhibit 15: Order Book Break-up (%)


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Financial OverviewTop-line expected to remain Strong

During FY2005-09, JSL posted a strong Top-line CAGR of 41.8%, driven primarily by the surge inthe Order Book of the company, which also grew at around a 37.8% CAGR to Rs3,606cr over thesame period. The Order Book position further strengthened to Rs3,959cr during 1QFY2010,providing the company with a strong revenue visibility for the next couple of years. Notably, allthese orders have an average execution cycle of 18-22 months, except the MSEDCL order whichwill go up to 2-3 years.

Going ahead, we expect the order inflows to gain some momentum due to the improving liquidityin the economy, coupled with the fact that these are the last few years of the Eleventh Plan period,when implementation generally gets expedited. We estimate the company to post a strongrevenue CAGR of 23.1% over FY2009-11E.

We estimate the company topost a strong revenue CAGRof 23.1% over FY2009-11E


Exhibit 17: Order Book Trend

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1QFY2009 2QFY2009 3QFY2009 4QFY2009 1QFY2010

(Rs

cr)

Order Inflow Order Backlog


Exhibit 16: Strong Revenue Growth

42.3

64.4

39.141.2

25.323.3 23.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

(

%)(Rs

cr)

Net Sales (LHS) Growth (RHS)


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Competition to limit Margins

During FY2005-09, Jyoti Structures recorded an expansion in its EBITDA Margins by 174bp to11.4%, owing to the operating leverage, which was driven by the strong revenue growth. Thecompany's large domestic presence, with about 85% of the company's current order book providingfor a price escalation, helps to insulate its margins against raw material price fluctuations. However,going ahead, we expect the intensifying competitive pressures to impact the margins, with operatingmargins stabilising at around 11% levels for JSL. Additionally, with the increasing quantum ofbidding, the bank guarantee charges would also continue to remain high, exerting pressure onthe margins.

Consequently, during FY2009-11E, we expect the company to post a 20.4% CAGR in OperatingProfits. The Net Profit Margins (NPM) are, however, expected to improve slightly by 28bp to around4.9%, primarily due to the lower tax rate and the lesser interest obligation. Consequently, weestimate a Net Profit CAGR of 26.8% over FY2009-11E.

Intensifying competitivepressures to limit margins


Exhibit 18: Increasing Pressure on Margins

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

1QFY2008 2QFY2008 3QFY2008 4QFY2008 1QFY2009 2QFY2009 3QFY2009 4QFY2009 1QFY2010

(%)

EBITDA Margins


Exhibit 19: Profitability Trend

9.7

10.7

12.912.5

11.411.0 10.9

2.7

4.0

5.7 5.34.6 4.7 4.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


(%)

(Rs

Cr)

EBITDA (LHS) Net Profit (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT (RHS)Margin


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods


Exhibit 20: Healthy Return Ratios

14.7

25.7

27.9

23.6

21.1 21.822.7

13.6

18.0

21.219.7 19.6 19.3 19.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0


(%)

RoE RoCE

Capex Plans

Jyoti Structures has planned to incur Capex of Rs50-60cr during the current financial year, whichwill be majorly used towards the acquisition of construction equipment. The company has alreadyincreased the manufacturing capacity last year to about 1,10,000MT per annum, and does notwish to increase it for the next two years. Our interaction with the management suggests that,henceforth, the company would be relying more on outsourcing to meet its balance productionrequirement.

Good Return Ratios

During FY2005-09, the company's Return on Equity (RoE) increased to 21.1% from 14.7%, drivenprimarily by an around 193bp expansion in NPMs and a rise in its asset turnover ratio, despite thegradual reduction in the debt-equity ratio of the company. Going ahead, as well, we expect thecompany to post healthy return ratios, with the average RoEs hovering around the 22-23% levels


Exhibit 21: DuPont AnalysisFY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

Net Profit / Sales (%) 2.7 4.0 5.7 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.9Sales / Avg. Assets 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7Avg. Assets / Avg. Equity 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7RoE (%) 14.7 25.7 27.9 23.6 21.1 21.8 22.7

Healthy return ratios, withaverage RoEs hovering aroundthe 22-23% levels


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Key Downside Risks

Increasing Competition

The huge opportunities in the Transmission EPC sector have attracted several new players in themarket, resulting in increased competition, both from domestic and overseas players. Althoughthe strict pre-qualification norms and strong execution capabilities act as a sort of an entry barrier,the new players have been bidding aggressively to gain market share. Thus, if JSL loses itsmarket share rapidly or the new entrants undercut prices sharply, bringing down realisations andmargins for the industry, it could adversely impact our estimates.

Execution Delays

Historically, India holds a poor track record in the timely execution of power generation projects.Any such delays are also bound to adversely impact the orders for the associated powertransmission projects. Additionally, delays in spending or execution by PGCIL and SEBs wouldalso impact the overall performance of the EPC players.

High Interest Rates

The Transmission EPC is a highly working capital intensive business, involving long paymentcycles and retention money by clients. Hence, a sharp spike in the interest rates, resulting in ahigher cost of borrowing for the company, could adversely impact the overall profitability andwould pose a downside risk to our estimates.


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Outlook and Valuation

Transmission EPC companies have been riding high in the past several years, on back of theongoing power sector boom in the country. The government has envisaged an investment ofRs140,000cr in the Transmission segment for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, which is an increaseof over two times from the investments made in the Tenth Plan period. The scale gets even biggerfor the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, with a planned investment of around Rs240,000cr. Besides, theincreasing capex earmarked for programs such as APDRP and RGGVY also add to theopportunities in this sector. Hence, we believe that JSL, being among the top three players in thespace, will continue to be a key beneficiary of the same.


Exhibit 22: One-year Forward Rolling P/E Band

JSL has a healthy order book of Rs3,959cr (2.3x its FY2009 revenues), which provides goodrevenue visibility to the company and cushions it from short-term order fluctuations. Besides, thecompany's large domestic presence (with exports constituting only around 5% of its orderbacklog) helps to insulate its margins from raw material price fluctuations and from volatilecurrency movements.

During FY2009-11E, we expect the company to register a Top-line and Bottom-line CAGR of23.1% and 26.8%, respectively. The company has traded at a wide forward P/E-band range, withan average P/E of 13-13.5x in the past five years. At the current price of Rs156, the stock isquoting at 12.7x and at 10.0x its FY2010E and FY2011E EPS, respectively, which we believe isattractive. We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with a Buy recommendation and a Target Priceof Rs204.

0

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Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods


Exhibit 23: One-year Forward Rolling EV/EBITDA


Exhibit 24: One-year Forward Rolling P/BV

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1.5x

4.5x


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Profit & Loss Statement Rs croreY/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

Net Sales 1,370.4 1,717.1 2,116.4 2,603.6

% chg 41.2 25.3 23.3 23.0

Total Expenditure 1,198.5 1,521.1 1,883.6 2,319.8

EBITDA 171.9 195.9 232.8 283.8

% of Net Sales 12.5 11.4 11.0 10.9

Others (3.0) 7.3 7.4 7.8

Depreciation & Amortisation 6.7 8.6 12.6 15.2

Interest 46.4 68.3 75.6 82.2

PBT 115.7 126.4 152.0 194.2

% of Net Sales 8.4 7.4 7.2 7.5

Tax 47.8 46.6 51.7 66.0

Effective Tax Rate (%) 41.3 36.9 34.0 34.0

Reported PAT 67.9 79.7 100.3 128.2

Exceptionals (4.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Adjusted PAT 72.4 79.7 100.3 128.2

% chg 31.6 10.1 25.8 27.7

Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

SOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4

Reserves & Surplus 325.0 400.4 491.2 606.9

Shareholders Funds 341.2 416.7 507.5 623.3

Total Loans 224.9 303.6 353.6 393.6

Deferred Tax Liability (Net) 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2

Total Liabilities 574.2 728.6 869.4 1,025.1

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 105.6 168.8 230.8 252.4

Less: Acc. Depreciation 44.0 52.1 64.7 79.9

Net Block 61.6 116.7 166.1 172.4

Capital Work-in-progress 1.4 4.4 2.4 0.8

Investments 16.0 23.1 23.1 23.1

Current Assets 824.2 1,100.7 1,186.7 1,533.0

Current Liabilities 330.7 517.4 510.1 705.4

Net Current Assets 493.5 583.3 676.7 827.6

Others 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.2

Total Assets 574.2 728.6 869.4 1,025.1

Balance Sheet Rs crore

Cash Flow Statement Rs croreY/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

Profit before tax 115.7 126.4 152.0 194.2

Depreciation 6.7 8.6 12.6 15.2

(Inc) / Dec in Working Capital (123.2) (73.9) (110.3) (142.7)

Income taxes paid (47.5) (46.4) (51.7) (66.0)

Others 44.9 60.9 68.2 74.4

Cash from operations (3.4) 75.6 70.8 75.0(Inc) / Dec in Fixed Assets (13.2) (66.2) (60.0) (20.0)

Free cash flows (16.6) 9.4 10.8 55.0(Inc) / Dec in Investments 2.5 (7.1) 0.0 0.0

Others 1.5 7.3 7.4 7.8

Inc / (Dec) in Share Capital 3.7 3.9 0.0 0.0

Inc / (Dec) in Debt 65.4 78.7 50.0 40.0

Dividend and dividend tax (7.6) (8.6) (9.6) (12.4)

Others (46.4) (68.3) (75.6) (82.2)

Cash from financing activities 15.0 5.7 (35.1) (54.6)Other adjustments 2.0 0.6 (0.0) 0.0

Net Inc / (Dec) in Cash 4.5 15.9 (17.0) 8.2Opening cash balance 9.2 13.7 29.7 12.7

Closing cash balance 13.7 29.7 12.7 20.9

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

Per Share Data (Rs)EPS 8.9 9.7 12.3 15.7Cash EPS 9.7 10.8 13.8 17.5DPS 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3Book value per share 41.5 50.8 61.9 76.1Operating RatiosAsset Turnover (x) 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7EBITDA (%) 12.5 11.4 11.0 10.9NPM (%) 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.9Debt / Equity (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6Return Ratios (%)RoE 23.6 21.1 21.8 22.7RoCE 19.7 19.6 19.3 19.7Dividend payout 9.6 9.2 8.2 8.3Valuation Ratios (x)P/E 17.6 16.0 12.7 10.0P/E (Cash EPS) 16.1 14.4 11.3 8.9P/BV 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.1EV/Sales 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6EV/EBITDA 8.7 7.9 6.9 5.8


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Fund Management & Investment Advisory ( 022 - 3952 4568)P. Phani Sekhar Fund Manager - (PMS) [email protected] Bhamre Head - Derivatives and Investment Advisory [email protected] Mehta AVP - Investment Advisory [email protected] Team ( 022 - 3952 4568)Hitesh Agrawal Head - Research [email protected] Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected] Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected] Jajoo Automobile [email protected] Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate [email protected] Shah FMCG , Media [email protected] Pareek Oil & Gas [email protected] Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering [email protected] Dalmia Pharmaceutical [email protected] Sankhe Cement, Power [email protected] Desai Logistics, Shipping, Real Estate [email protected] Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap [email protected] Nadkarni Retail, Hotels [email protected] Sharda Mid-cap [email protected] Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) [email protected] Waghmare Research Associate (Metals & Mining) [email protected] Srinivasan Research Associate (Power, Cement) [email protected] Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected] Gaunekar Research Associate (Automobile) [email protected] Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) [email protected] Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected] Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected] Agrawal Jr. Derivative Analyst [email protected] Bagaria PMS [email protected] Wagle Chief Technical Analyst [email protected] Joshi AVP Technical Advisory Services [email protected] Ail Manager - Technical Advisory Services [email protected] Jagtap Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Sanghvi Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Vasudeo Technical Analyst [email protected] Dayma Technical Analyst [email protected] Padhye AVP Mutual Fund [email protected] Rathod Research Associate (MF) [email protected] Jangid Research Associate (MF) [email protected] Research TeamAmar Singh Research Head (Commodities) [email protected] P Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Gupta Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Patki Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Chauhan Technical Analyst abhishek [email protected] Research Team (Fundamentals)Badruddin Sr. Research Analyst (Agri) [email protected] Walia Research Analyst ( Base Metals, Energy Complex) [email protected] Narvekar Research Analyst ( Agri) vedika.narvekar @angeltrade.comNalini Rao Research Analyst (Agri) [email protected] Shetty Research Editor [email protected] Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor [email protected] Patil Production [email protected] Patel Production [email protected]

Research & Investment Advisory: Acme Plaza, 3rd Floor ‘A’ wing, M.V. Road, Opp Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059

DisclaimerThis document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whosepossession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may beregulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subjectto change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and are for general guidance only. Whileevery effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company takes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. Noone can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action.Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessaryto arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisorsto determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance.Certain transactions - futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technicalanalysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company'sfundamentals.We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Angel Broking, itssubsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasonsthat may prevent Angel Broking and affiliates from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to changewithout notice. Angel Broking Limited and affiliates, including the analyst who has issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buyor sell the securities of the companies mentioned herein or engage in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or compensation or act as advisor or have other potentialconflict of interest with respect to company/ies mentioned herein or inconsistent with any recommendation and related information and opinions.Angel Broking Limited and affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to thecompanies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Buy (Upside > 15%) Accumulate (Upside upto 15%) Neutral (5 to -5%)Reduce (Downside upto 15%) Sell (Downside > 15%)

Ratings (Returns) :


Jyoti Structures

Capital Goods

Central Support & Registered Office:G-1, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC Marol, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093 Tel : 2835 8800 / 3083 7700

Regional Offices:

Private Client Group Offices: Sub - Broker Marketing:

Branch Offices:

Ahmedabad - Tel: (079) 3941 3940

Bengaluru - Tel: (080) 3941 3940

Chennai - Tel: (044) 3941 3940

Hyderabad - Tel: (040) 3941 3940

Coimbatore - Tel: (0422) 3941 394

Cochin - Tel: (0484) 3941 394

Indore - Tel: (0731) 3941 394

Jaipur - Tel: (0141) 3941 394

Kanpur - Tel: (0512) 3941 394

Kolkata - Tel: (033) 3941 3940

Lucknow - Tel: (0522) 3941 394

Ludhiana - Tel: (0161) 3941 394

Mumbai (Powai) - Tel: (022)3952 6500

Pune - Tel: (020) 3941 3940

New Delhi - Tel: (011) 3941 3940

Nagpur - Tel: (0712) 3941 394

Nashik - Tel: (0253) 3941 394

Mumbai (Goregoan) Tel: (022) 2879 0411-15

Surat - Tel: (0261) 3941 394

Rajkot - Tel :(0281) 3941 394

Visakhapatnam - Tel :(0891) 3941 394

Surat - Tel: (0261) 3071 600 Rajkot (Race course) - Tel: (0281) 2490 847 Powai - Tel: (022) 3952 6500

Andheri (W) - Tel: (022) 2635 2345 / 6668 0021

Bandra (W) - Tel: (022) 2655 5560 / 70

Andheri (Lokhandwala) - Tel: (022) 2639 2626

Bandra (W) - Tel: (022) 6643 2694 - 99

Borivali (W) - Tel: (022) 3952 4787

Borivali (Punjabi Lane) - Tel: (022) 3951 5700.

Chembur - (Basant) - Tel:(022) 022) 6156 1111 / 01

Kalbadevi - Tel: (022) 2243 5599 / 2242 5599

Kandivali (W) - Tel: (022) 2867 3800/2867 7032

Chembur (Swastik) - Tel: (022) 6703 0210 / 11 /12

Fort - Tel: (022) 3958 1887

Ghatkopar (E) - Tel: (022) 3955 8400/2510 1525

Malad (E) - Tel: (022) 2880 4440

Kandivali - Tel: (022) 4245 1300

Malad (Natraj Market) - Tel:(022) 28803453 / 24

Masjid Bander - Tel: (022) 2345 5130 /1 / 8 / 42 /28

Mulund (W) - Tel: (022) 2562 2282

Nerul - Tel: (022) 2771 9012 - 17

Sion - Tel: (022) 3952 7891

Powai (E) - Tel: (022) 3952 5887

Thane (W) - Tel: (022) 2539 0786 / 0650 / 1

Vashi - Tel: (022) 2765 4749 / 2251

Vile Parle (W) - Tel: (022) 2610 2894 / 95

Wadala - Tel: (022) 2414 0607 / 08

Agra - Tel: (0562) 4037200

Ahmedabad (Kalupur) - Tel: (079) 3041 4000 / 01

Ahmedabad (Maninagar) - Tel: (079) 3981 7430 / 1

Ajmer - Tel: (0145) 3941 394

Alwar - Tel: (0144) 3941 394 / 99833 60006

Ahmeda. (Bapu Nagar) - Tel : (079) 3091 6900 - 02

Ahmeda. (Gurukul) - Tel: (079) 3011 0800 / 01

Ahmedabad (C. G. Road) - Tel: (079) 4021 4023

Pune (Aundh) - Tel: (020) 4104 1900

Pune (Camp) - Tel: (020) 3092 1800

Pune - (kalyani Nagar) Tel: (020) 6620 6591 / 6620 6595

Rajamundhry - Tel: (0883) 3941 394

Rajkot (Ardella) Tel.: (0281) 2926 568

Rajkot (University Rd.) - Tel: (0281) 2331 418

Rajkot - (Bhakti Nagar) Tel: (0281) 2361 935

Rajkot - (Indira circle) Tel : 99258 84848

Rajkot (Orbit Plaza) - Tel: (0281) 3983 485

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Rajkot (Ring Road)- Mobile: 99245 99393

Rajkot (Star Chambers) - Tel : (0281)3981 200

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Salem - Tel: (0427) 3941 394

Surat (Ring Road) - Tel : (0261) 3071 600

Surendranagar - Tel : (02752) 223305

Secunderabad - Tel : (040) 3093 2600

Surat (Mahidharpura) - Tel: (0261) 3092 900

Surat - (Parle Point) - Tel : (0261) 3091 400

Udaipur - (0294) 3941 394

Valsad - Tel - (02632) 645 344 / 45

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Varachha - (0261) 3091 500

Vijayawada - Tel :(0866) 3984 600

Warangal - Tel: (0870) 3982 200

Varanasi - Tel: (0542) 2221 129, 3058 066

Tirupur - (0421) 4302 800

Pune (Kothrud) Tel: (020) 4104 5400

Ahmedabad (Sabarmati) - Tel : (079) 3091 6100 / 01

Ahmedabad (Satellite) - Tel: (079) 4000 1000

Ahmedabad (Shahibaug) -Tel: (079)3091 6800 / 01

Amreli - Tel: (02792) 228 800/231039-42

Anand - Tel : (02692) 398 400 / 3

Amritsar - Tel: (0183) 3941 394

Ankleshwar - Tel: (02646) 398 200

Baroda - Tel: (0265) 6635 100 / 2226 103

Baroda (Akota) - Tel: (0265) 2355 258 / 6499 286

Baroda (Manjalpur) - Tel: (0265) 6454280-3

Bhavnagar - Tel: (0278) 3941 394

Bengaluru - Tel: (080) 4072 0800 - 29

Ahmeda. (Ramdevnagar) - Tel : (079) 4024 3842 / 43

Bhavnagar (Shastrinagar)- Mobile: 92275 32302

Indore - Tel: (0731) 4238 600

Gandhinagar - Tel: (079) 4010 1010 - 31

Gajuwaka - Tel: (0891) 3987 100 - 30

Faridabad - Tel: (0129) 3984 000

Gandhidham - Tel: (02836) 237 135

Gondal - Tel: (02825) 398 200

Ghaziabad - Tel: (0120) 3980 800

Gurgaon - Tel: (0124) 3050 700

Himatnagar - Tel: (02772) 241 008 / 241 346

Hyderabad - A S Rao Nagar Tel: (040) 4222 2070-5

Hubli - Tel: (0836) 4267 500 - 22

Indore - Tel: (0731) 3049 400

Bhopal - Tel :(0755) 3941 394

Bikaner - Tel: (0151) 3941 394 / 98281 03988

Chandigarh - Tel: (0172) 3092 700

Deesa - Mobile: 97250 01160

Erode - Tel: (0424) 3982 600

Bhilwara - (01482) 398 350

Jamnagar (Cross Word) - Tel: (0288) 2751 118

Jamnagar(Indraprashta) - Tel: (0288) 3941 394

Jodhpur - Tel: (0291) 3941 394 / 99280 24321

Junagadh - Tel : (0285) 3941 3940

Keshod - Tel: (02871) 234 027 / 233 967

Kolkata (N. S. Rd) - Tel: (033) 3982 5050

Kolkata (P. A. Shah Rd) - Tel: (033) 3001 5100

Mehsana - Tel: (02762) 645 291 / 92

Kota - Tel : (0744) 3941 394

Mansarovar - Tel:(0141) 3057 700/99836 74600

Mysore - Tel: (0821) 4004 200 - 30

Nadiad - Tel : (0268) - 2527 230 / 34

Jamnagar (Moti Khawdi) - Tel: (0288) 2846 026

Jamnagar(Madhav Plaza) - Tel: (0288) 2665 708

Jalgaon - Tel: (0257) 2234 832

Kolhapur - Tel: (0231) 6632 000

Madurai Tel: (0452) 3941 394

Mangalore - Tel: (0824) 3982 140

Nagaur - Tel: (01582) 244 648

New Delhi (Nehru Place) - Tel: (011) 3982 0900

New Delhi (Preet Vihar) - Tel: (011) 4310 6400

Palanpur - Tel: (02742) 308 060 - 63

Patan - Tel: (02766) 222 306

Noida - Tel : (0120) 4639 900 / 1 / 9

New Delhi (Bhikaji Cama) - Tel: (011) 41659711

New Delhi (Lawrence Rd.) - Tel: (011) 3262 8699 / 8799

New Delhi (Pitampura) - Tel: (011) 4751 8100

Nashik - Tel: (0253) 3011 500 / 1 / 11

Jaipur - (Rajapark) Tel: (0141) 3057 900 / 99833 40004

Porbandar - Tel : (0286) 3941 394

Porbandar (Kuber Life Style) - Mob.-98242 53737

Pune - (Pentagon) Tel : (020) 3093 4400 / 3052 3217

Ahmedabad (C. G. Road) - Tel: (079) 3982 9934

Corporate & Marketing Office : 612, Acme Plaza, M.V. Road, Opp Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059 Tel : (022) 3941 3940 / 4000 3600NRI Helpdesk : e-mail : [email protected] Tel : (022) 4000 3622 / 4026 2700Investment Advisory Helpdesk : e-mail : [email protected] Tel : (022) 3958 4000Commodities : e-mail : [email protected] Tel : (022) 3081 7400PMS : e-mail : [email protected] Tel: (022) 3953 2800Feedback : e-mail : [email protected] Tel : (022) 2835 5000

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