DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION ® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 14 July 2016 Asia Pacific Equity Research Investment Strategy Jump-Start STRATEGY Jump-Start aims to provide you with a summary of the week that was and helps you prepare for the week ahead with a results calendar, economic forecasts and valuation summaries. China Property Sector: A new chapter—Go for quality. We assume coverage of China Property Sector (6 initiations and 16 assumptions) with MARKETWEIGHT and expect the overall sector to be range-bound amid stable sales outlook in 2H16-17E. In our view, the policy direction is no longer sufficient to drive sector performance and we therefore adopt a bottom-up approach to search for "quality" developers. We have non-consensus UNDERPERFORM calls on Vanke-H and Wanda. Our preferred names include COLI, CRL, Longfor, R&F, CIFI and Yuzhou. (Link) India Automobiles Sector: Mind the (regulatory) gap. India is going on a path of unprecedented tightening of its emissions and safety standards. We believe the market has re- rated auto stocks on possible GST implementation but it is not focusing on the regulatory headwinds ahead. GST implementation would result in a ~5-7% benefit for almost all segments within autos and should help offset some of the negative impact. Overall, gasoline PVs are best positioned as they will have the least price increases over the next four years. We still prefer Maruti as our top pick. (Link) China Internet Sector: Express Delivery—"Served in China". Express delivery service is riding the wave of e-commerce and O2O services boom, and has become an integral part of China's service infrastructure that has enhanced people's everyday life. Third-party express delivery companies such as STO, ZTO and SF Express are the largest beneficiaries of the boom. Our express company performance matrix and comparison analysis on various express delivery players show unit economic efficiency is the key driver for profitability. (Link) Must-read recently published reports 1) India Market Strategy– Agriculture: The problem is plenty (18/5) Neelkanth Mishra Volumes slowed in the past two years to 45-year lows, but the surprise has been price weakness. As India's per capita calorie consumption continues to fall and food habits change, cereal demand has peaked. Where demand is growing supply has grown with improving infrastructure and six years of elevated prices. 2) Research Institute— Emerging Consumer Survey 2016 (31/3) Richard Kersley Weak markets and currencies, and downgraded growth expectations have provided the backdrop to this year’s Emerging Consumer Survey. Negative cyclical influences underscore replies from our consumers, which are generally weaker than a year ago, if differing by country. 3) Asia Tobacco Sector— Emerging Asia Tobacco: Time to switch? (31/5) Arnab Mitra India is the world's most dominated cigarette market (outside China), with ITC having ~77%/96% volume/profit share. ITC's margins are the highest in the world. With FDI in cigarettes being banned, ITC's dominance remains unchallenged. 4) China Internet Sector – Express Delivery: "Served in China (11/7) Evan Zhou Express delivery service is riding the wave of e- commerce and O2O services boom, and has become an integral part of China's service infrastructure that has enhanced people's everyday life. 5) Asia Technology Strategy—Automotive- tech: Asian supply chain (29/6) Manish Nigam Tech products' sales into auto industry (we refer to it as 'automotive-tech') is set to grow rapidly over the coming decade. While the theme by itself isn't new, investors have been looking for Asian tech cos best exposed to this theme. Research Analyst Manish Nigam 852 2101 7067 [email protected]Credit Suisse forthcoming events Thematic Trip China Healthcare Tour Date 18-19 July, Zhengzhou and Beijing Analyst Iris Wang Shenzhen Auto Dealer Visit (Mandarin Speaker Only) Date 19 July, Shenzhen Analyst Bin Wang India Macro Tour – Reforms & Reforms Date 01-03 August, Mumbai, New Delhi Analyst Neelkanth Mishra Indonesia Conference Site Trip – Surabaya; Taking the pulse of Infrastructure, Property and Consumption Date 17-18 August, Surabaya, Indonesia Analyst Jahanzeb Naseer ASEAN Banks Tour – trough valuations? Date 22-26 August, Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila Analyst Sanjay Jain Corporate Days / Conferences 2016 Indonesia Conference Date 15-16 August, Singapore Analyst Jahanzeb Naseer 4th Asia Internet C-Level Conference Date 24-25 August, HK / 26 August, Singapore 17th Annual Asian Technology Conference Date 07-09 September, Taipei Analyst Manish Nigam Macau Gaming Corporate Day Date 13 September, Hong Kong Analyst Kenneth Fong Hong Kong / China (Non-deal roadshow) Vinda International Holdings Ltd (3331.HK) Post results Date 22 July, Hong Kong Analyst Raymond Ching Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038.HK), Power Assets Holdings Limited (0006.HK) Post results Date 29 July, Hong Kong Analyst Dave Dai Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK) Date 29 July, Hong Kong Analyst Susanna Leung Singapore (Non-deal roadshow) Egis Technology Inc.(6462.TWO) Date 18-19 July, Singapore 20-22 July, Hong Kong Analyst Jerry Su China Gas Holdings Ltd (0384.HK) Post results Date 25-26 July, Singapore Analyst Dave Dai Contact [email protected] or your usual sales representative
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION®
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
14 July 2016
Asia Pacific
Equity Research
Investment Strategy
Jump-Start STRATEGY
Jump-Start aims to provide you with a summary of the week that was and helps you prepare
for the week ahead with a results calendar, economic forecasts and valuation summaries.
China Property Sector: A new chapter—Go for quality. We assume coverage of China
Property Sector (6 initiations and 16 assumptions) with MARKETWEIGHT and expect the overall
sector to be range-bound amid stable sales outlook in 2H16-17E. In our view, the policy direction is
no longer sufficient to drive sector performance and we therefore adopt a bottom-up approach to
search for "quality" developers. We have non-consensus UNDERPERFORM calls on Vanke-H
and Wanda. Our preferred names include COLI, CRL, Longfor, R&F, CIFI and Yuzhou. (Link)
India Automobiles Sector: Mind the (regulatory) gap. India is going on a path of
unprecedented tightening of its emissions and safety standards. We believe the market has re-
rated auto stocks on possible GST implementation but it is not focusing on the regulatory
headwinds ahead. GST implementation would result in a ~5-7% benefit for almost all
segments within autos and should help offset some of the negative impact. Overall, gasoline
PVs are best positioned as they will have the least price increases over the next four years.
We still prefer Maruti as our top pick. (Link)
China Internet Sector: Express Delivery—"Served in China". Express delivery service is
riding the wave of e-commerce and O2O services boom, and has become an integral part of
China's service infrastructure that has enhanced people's everyday life. Third-party express
delivery companies such as STO, ZTO and SF Express are the largest beneficiaries of the
boom. Our express company performance matrix and comparison analysis on various express
delivery players show unit economic efficiency is the key driver for profitability. (Link)
Must-read recently published reports
1) India Market Strategy– Agriculture: The problem is plenty (18/5)
Neelkanth Mishra
Volumes slowed in the past two years to 45-year lows, but the surprise has been price weakness. As India's per capita calorie consumption continues to fall and food habits change, cereal demand has peaked. Where demand is growing supply has grown with improving infrastructure and six years of elevated prices.
2) Research Institute—Emerging Consumer Survey 2016 (31/3)
Richard Kersley Weak markets and currencies, and downgraded growth expectations have provided the backdrop to this year’s Emerging Consumer Survey. Negative cyclical influences underscore replies from our consumers, which are generally weaker than a year ago, if differing by country.
3) Asia Tobacco Sector— Emerging Asia Tobacco: Time to switch? (31/5)
Arnab Mitra India is the world's most dominated cigarette market (outside China), with ITC having ~77%/96% volume/profit share. ITC's margins are the highest in the world. With FDI in cigarettes being banned, ITC's dominance remains unchallenged.
4) China Internet Sector – Express Delivery: "Served in China (11/7)
Evan Zhou Express delivery service is riding the wave of e-commerce and O2O services boom, and has become an integral part of China's service infrastructure that has enhanced people's everyday life.
5) Asia Technology Strategy—Automotive-tech: Asian supply chain (29/6)
Manish Nigam Tech products' sales into auto industry (we refer to it as 'automotive-tech') is set to grow rapidly over the coming decade. While the theme by itself isn't new, investors have been looking for Asian tech cos best exposed to this theme.
China 11 Jul 0272.HK SOL O O HK$ 1.749 HK$ 2.5 HK$ 2.5 0.0 Rmb 0.2612 Rmb 0.3359 Rmb 0.354 Rmb 0.2668 -26.21 25.93 Kelvin Tam
India 11 Jul GAIL.BO GAIL U U Rs 378.45 Rs 295 Rs 295 0.0 Rs 17.6095 Rs 22.7107 Rs 16.061 Rs 22.7108 9.64 0.00 Badrinath Srinivasan
India 12 Jul CUMM.BO Cummins India N N Rs 816.05 Rs 875 Rs 875 0.0 Rs 27.654 Rs 29.6948 Rs 27.123 Rs 29.7603 1.96 -0.22 Lokesh Garg
South Korea 07 Jul 105560.KS KB Financial O O W 33400 W 46000 W 46000 0.0 W 4669 W 5252 W 4652 W 5272 0.37 -0.39 Gil Kim
Taiwan 06 Jul 2892.TW First FHC N N NT$ 17.15 NT$ 17 NT$ 17 0.0 NT$ 1.381 NT$ 1.3851 NT$ 1.3537 NT$ 1.4073 2.02 -1.57 Chung Hsu
Taiwan 11 Jul 2823.TW China Life Taiwan O O NT$ 26.2 NT$ 30 NT$ 30 0.0 NT$ 2.802 NT$ 2.1314 NT$ 2.121 NT$ 2.1315 32.11 0.00 Chung Hsu
Taiwan 13 Jul 2454.TW MediaTek N N NT$ 247 NT$ 225 NT$ 225 0.0 NT$ 15.4961 NT$ 16.0032 NT$ 15.003 NT$ 16.0043 3.29 -0.01 Randy Abrams
Note: Prices are as of 13 Jul 2016, US$. Entries are organised by changes in rating first, followed by that in target price and earnings. Source: Credit Suisse estimates
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 5
Regional valuation snapshot Forecast valuations (IBES estimates) Index performance
Source: Central banks, CEIC, Statistical agencies, Credit Suisse
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 12
Top stories from Credit Suisse research last week
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 13
China Property Sector -------------------------- Assuming Coverage with MARKET WEIGHT New report: A new chapter—Go for quality Alvin Wong / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6486 / [email protected] Kelvin Tam, CFA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6582 / [email protected] Jizhou Dong / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6538 / [email protected]
● We assume coverage of the China Property Sector (6 initiations and 16 assumptions) with a MARKET WEIGHT view and expect the overall sector to be range-bound amid a stable sales outlook in 2H16-17E. In our view, the policy direction itself is no longer sufficient to drive sector performance and we therefore adopt a bottom-up approach to search for "quality" developers. Full report.
● Sustainable sector rally existed only when developers generated positive FCF on aggregate. Bankruptcy is always a major concern. With this, developers have to show their sincerity to strengthen their balance sheets by improving their cashflow positions.
● The strategy of aiming for market-share gain (by contracted sales) but neglecting the profitability is not an ideal business model. We prefer developers to consistently report above sector-average earnings growth so as to gain the "earnings" share.
● We have non-consensus UNDERPERFORM calls on Vanke-H (management overhang) and Wanda (risk of privatisation failure). Our preferred names include COLI, CRL, Longfor, R&F, CIFI and Yuzhou.
Figure 1: We expect a range-bound market over 2H16-17
Yoy change in commodity property GFA sold (LHS) NAV discount (RHS)
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2
Source: CEIC, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse estimates
Strength to rise above policy
We forecast commodity property sales growth of 10.4% and 1% YoY in 2016E and 2017E, respectively. This leads us to the midway between moderation and stabilisation phase of a property cycle where we see low chance of a sustainable sector rally. Looking forward, the overall policy stance should remain supportive amid a slowing economy, yet we have been seeing rising policy risks across first-tier cities and some second-tier cities. In our view, the policy direction itself is no longer sufficient to drive the sector performance and this requires a bottom-up investment approach for stock selection.
Positive free cashflow is the real key
Two sustainable sector rallies appeared in Aug-08–Jul-09 and Feb-12–Feb-13 only when developers generated positive FCF on aggregate by slowing down both new-starts and land purchases. Looking into 2H16E, most developers should focus on destocking, yet the overall sector's FCF will be dragged by several aggressive developers like Evergrande, CG and Sunac. Bankruptcy is always a major investment concern. Developers have to show their sincerity to strengthen their B/S by improving their cashflow positions.
Figure 2: Positive FCF is the key driver of sector outperformance
CS China Property H Shares Index ––– (tightening) ––– (easing) ––– (tightening/easing)+ / - indicate sector's FCF, which we expect to be negative in 2016E
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse research
Earnings share gain is a new theme
Rather than simply looking at developers' top-line numbers (i.e., contracted sales), it is even more important to focus on their bottom-line figures (i.e., profitability). We have been seeing many volume-driven developers such as Evergrande and Sunac gaining market share (by contracted sales) at the expense of declining profits and deteriorating balance sheets; while balanced-growth developers such as COLI and CRL have consistently gained market share (by core profits) with stable margins and healthy net gearings.
Figure 3: China property—2016E market-share gain
16.2%1.0%
6.4%21.2%
11.1%11.8%
0.9%3.7%
6.2%0.8%
5.7%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.1%
0.0%1.0%
2.3%1.4%
0.5%1.7%
Market share by core profit 2016E
17.2%12.8%
10.1%9.9%
6.1%6.1%
4.8%4.1%4.0%3.9%3.6%
2.8%2.7%2.6%
1.8%1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.1%0.8%
Vanke-H
Evergrande
CG
COLI
CRL
Wanda
Sunac
Shimao
Longfor
Greentown
R&F
Agile
Sino-Ocean
CIFI
Jinmao
Poly Prop
Yuexiu Prop
KWG
Yuzhou
COGO
SOL
Market share by presales 2016E
Note: We expect Poly Prop to report core profit loss in FY16E. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
Non-consensus Underperforms: Vanke-H and Wanda
Unless there is any significant change in either GDP or policy direction, we believe the current sector NAV discount of 34% suggests limited upside potential, compared to an average NAV discount of 29% over the last moderation/stabilisation period (i.e., Mar-13–Dec-13). In our view, developers' share price performance will be differentiated from their individual business and operating performance. In addition to the above-mentioned key investment themes (i.e., positive cashflow and earnings share gain), we also study developers' land bank exposure which is a traditional way to gauge their quality. Our non-consensus UNDERPERFORM calls include Vanke-H (management overhang) and Wanda (risk of privatisation failure) while our preferred names include COLI, CRL, Longfor, R&F, CIFI and Yuzhou.
India Automobiles Sector ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ New report: Mind the (regulatory) gap Jatin Chawla / Research Analyst / 91 22 6777 3719 / [email protected] Akshay Saxena / Research Analyst / 91 22 6777 3825 / [email protected]
● India is going on a path of unprecedented tightening of its emissions and safety standards. We believe the market has re-rated auto stocks on possible GST implementation but it is not focusing on the regulatory headwinds ahead. Full report
● In order to assess the impact, we focus on (1) cost increases, and (2) the ability to pass them on. 2Ws will face cost increases of ~12-15%, in our view; given the competitive intensity, they also have the least ability to pass them on fully. Given the significant reduction required in emissions of diesel vehicles, CVs (~20% increase) and diesel PVs (~15%) have to incur sizeable cost of compliance.
● GST implementation would result in a ~5-7% benefit for almost all segments within autos and should help offset some of the negative impact. Overall, gasoline PVs are best positioned as they will have the least price increases over the next four years.
● We still prefer Maruti as our top pick and raise TP to Rs4,810 (from Rs4,540); downgrade Hero Motocorp to UNDERPERFORM (~15% downside); and stay UNDERPERFORM on TVS, as it will be difficult for it to show margin improvement amid such cost increases.
Figure 1: Gasoline PVs to see the least adverse impact from regulations
Price increase needed by 2019 (BS-IV + Safety net of GST benefit)
Total by 2020 (BS-VI additional) Source: Company data, ICCT, Credit Suisse estimates
2Ws: Compliance costs much higher than GST benefit. For 2Ws, we expect the regulatory cost increases to offset the entire 6% price reduction that can happen from the GST. Movement to BS-IV emission standards from Apr-2017 should result in a ~2% price increase. 2Ws have generally had lenient emission standards when compared to cars but with BS-VI being implemented from Apr-2020, 2Ws also have very tough standards to meet. This would entail a further ~6% increase in prices. Similarly, on the safety side too, India
is taking a big lead when compared to ASEAN nations by making ABS (Anti-lock braking system) compulsory for >125cc vehicles and CBS (Combined braking system) compulsory for <125cc vehicles, which would mean a further 6%/3% price increase.
CVs: Highest cost impact from regulations. Commercial vehicles face the biggest cost increase going forward, primarily on higher emission compliance costs. BS-IV implementation from Apr-2017 will result in a ~7% price increase. Further going forward with BS-VI implementation in Apr-2020; CVs would need a further ~10% price increase. The safety compliance has already happened with the ABS implementation in Oct-2015. For CVs, price increases don’t tend to impact demand very significantly as that is more linked to freight demand. However, GST implementation can lead to an increase in the freight carrying capacity as truck travel becomes more efficient and hence could negatively impact demand. If the proposed voluntary scrappage plan were to be implemented it could take out some truck capacity from the system, but it has implementation challenges.
PVs: Gasoline vehicles are best placed. PVs by and large are already compliant with BS-IV emission norms and hence emission-related cost increases will happen only with BS-VI in Apr-2020. Even then, the price increase on gasoline vehicles will not be very significant. However, diesel vehicles will need a ~10% increase. On the safety side too, the implementation in cars is later than that in 2Ws and CVs. While new vehicles need to comply with both the frontal and lateral crash norms by Oct-2017, existing vehicles need to do so only by Oct-2018 for lateral collisions and Oct-2019 for frontal collisions.
Figure 2: Timeline for the implementation of emission norms in the country Norm Deadline Segment Technology and required price increase
BS-IV Apr-17 2W Improving oxidation catalyst (~2% increase) BS-IV Apr-17 CV Common rail fuel injection (~7% increase) BS-IV Apr-17 PV Already Compliant BS-VI Apr-20 2W Fuel injection technology (~6% increase) BS-VI Apr-20 CV After-treatment system (~10% increase) BS-VI Apr-20 PV Small change in gasoline, big in diesel
Source: MORTH, company data, ICCT, Credit Suisse
Figure 3: Timeline for the implementation of safety norms in the country Segment Deadline Regulation and required price increase
New 2W models Apr-18 ABS for >125cc (~6%), CBS for <125cc (~3%) All 2Ws Apr-19 ABS for >125cc, CBS for <125cc CVs Oct-15 ABS implementation already done New PV models Oct-17 Crash norms complaint (4-5% price increase in total) All PVs Oct-18 Lateral collision crash norm All PVs Oct-19 Fully complaint with crash norm (Frontal collision also)
Source: MORTH, company data, Credit Suisse
Valuation metrics
Rating TP Up/dn Div. yld ROE P/B Company Ticker (prev. Price chg to TP Year EPS chg (%) EPS EPS grth (%) P/E (x) (%) (%) (x)
rating) Local Target (%) (%) T T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+1
China Internet Sector ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ New report: Express Delivery—"Served in China"
● Express delivery service is riding the wave of e-commerce and O2O services boom, and has become an integral part of China's service infrastructure that has enhanced people's everyday life. Full report.
● Profitable growth. Third-party express delivery companies such as STO, ZTO and S.F. Express are the largest beneficiaries of the boom. Our express company performance matrix and comparison analysis on various express delivery players show unit economic efficiency is the key driver for profitability.
● From days to minutes. The emergence of high-frequency delivery is taking the infrastructure capability to the next level – i.e., to enable delivery of time-sensitive merchandises and services in minutes. Efficiency level for current high-frequency players still needs time to reach the ideal level.
● We see third-party express companies improvement to eclipse the speed and quality advantage of in-house delivery of VIPS (N, TP $12.5) and JD (N, TP $20.8). Incremental operating leverage from fulfilment expense will be more limited, and higher fulfilment cost due to BABA's Tmall Supermarket will drag near-term profitability.
Figure 1: Highlights of leading express delivery players SF STO YTO Yunda EMS
Source: Company data. Note: All metrics as of end-2015, except those for EMS which are as of end-2011.
China express delivery service is riding the wave of e-commerce and O2O services boom: The growth of China's overall logistics growth will continue to slow down due to macro headwinds, in our view. But the highway delivery segment – as one of its main sub-sectors, is expanding with decent growth, driven by the boom of e-commerce business. Among that, express and LTL are the growth layers, which accounted for 5%/40% of the highway delivery market, respectively. We expected continuing consolidation and mutual penetration of express and LTL players.
The LTL market is fragmented in China, with 90% occupied by self-employed vehicles. We expect to see an "Uber-style" business model emerging among LTL players and market consolidation should drive up efficiency and improve standardisation of service quality.
Express delivery – profitable growth. Driven by increasing penetration of online shopping, China's express delivery volume recorded more than 50% CAGR in the past five years, with aggregate volume at ~21 billion orders in 2015, within which at least 60% are the e-commerce related parcels. We expect the volume to reach 50 billion by 2020 and third-party express delivery companies such as STO, ZTO and S.F. Express can benefit the most from the e-commerce
boom. We analysed the performance of various express companies based on comparison of five metrics: network coverage, service quality, delivery speed, price attractiveness and value-added service and showed that unit economic efficiency is the key driver for profitability.
Meanwhile, e-commerce retailers are increasingly adopting in-house logistics capacity and delivery teams. We foresee both in-house and third-party logistics providers will continue to invest in the last mile infrastructure and resources, and to explore more innovative and efficient options to improve efficiency and service experience.
High-frequency delivery – from days to minutes. Apart from purchasing goods from e-commerce retailers, consumers also increasingly use O2O services that require on-demand intra-city delivery within hours. In-house delivery capacities are a competitive edge for most major O2O food take-out platforms. Meanwhile, crowdsourcing delivery service, a more cost-effective and flexible approach to address the long-tail demand, has also gained traction in volume ramp-up. The recent merger of Dada and JD Daojia, the two frontrunners in this sector, is expected to increase cost synergies and create another major player in this segment.
Figure 2: Comps for e-commerce in-house delivery peers Close Target Mkt cap PE
Alibaba BABA.N USD 79.35 O 100.0 199,361 38.0x 31.7x 24.9x JD.com JD.OQ USD 20.57 N 20.8 29,959 N/A N/A N/A Vipshop VIPS.N USD 11.81 N 12.5 6,742 22.7x 17.8x 13.9x Suning 002024.SZ CNY 10.88 O 22.5 15,119 N/A N/A N/A
Average 30.3x 24.7x 19.4x
Note: * Price as of 7 July, 2016; Source: Company data, Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
For listed B2C e-commerce players with in-house delivery teams, we see the network expansion/service quality improvement of third-party express delivery companies gradually eclipsing the advantage of speed and quality of in-house delivery teams of JD (N, TP $20.8) and VIPS (N, TP $12.5).
Fulfilment expense is the biggest and the most crucial cost item for all B2C e-commerce players. Efficiency improvement in fulfilment has been driving the profitability of e-commerce players such as JD, VIPS and BZUN in the past years. But incremental help on overall margin improvement will be more limited down the road. We estimate a 20 bp/30 bp improvement in fulfilment as a percentage of revenue for JD/VIPS in 2017E.
The ramp-up of food and grocery categories from Alibaba's Tmall Supermarket is likely to drive higher fulfilment cost and drag profitability incrementally in the coming quarters.
The author of this report wishes to acknowledge the contributions made by Dan Zhao, an employee of Evalueserve Research Hong Kong Ltd, a third-party provider to Credit Suisse of research support services.
APAC Equity Strategy ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Is MSCI China's ROE bottoming? Sakthi Siva / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3027 / [email protected] Kin Nang Chik / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7482 / [email protected]
● After five years during which MSCI Asia ex-Japan (MXASJ) went nowhere (amid trading rallies) as MSCI China's ROE slowed from a peak of 17.2% in November 2011 to 12.4% currently, we highlight that MSCI China ROE has been flat at 12.4% for the last three months. The key question for investors is whether these are the first signs that MSCI China ROE is finally bottoming.
● As discussed in our report of 12 April China PPI leads ROE?, we believe the recent uptick in the China PPI (from -5.9% YoY in December 2015 to -2.6% in June 2016) acts as a proxy for commodity prices and leads China's ROE.
● Figure 2 highlights that MSCI China ROE ex Financials and Energy bottomed at 11.8% in November 2015 and has since risen to 13%. Figure 3 highlights that MSCI China ROE ex Financials (given rising NPLs) has risen from a low of 10.1% to 10.8% currently.
● While our biggest Overweight markets are Korea (the only market with rising ROE in the Asia Pacific) and Taiwan (the only market sitting on net cash), we reiterate our modest 1% Overweight on MSCI China given these early signs of ROE bottoming. Full report.
Figure 1: MSCI China ROE
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15
MSCI China - ROE
12.4% now
High 17.2% Nov 2011
Source: MSCI
MSCI China ROE flat at 12.4% for three consecutive months
After five years during which MSCI Asia ex-Japan (MXASJ) went nowhere (amidst trading rallies) as MSCI China's ROE slowed from a peak of 17.2% in November 2011 to 12.4% currently, we highlight that MSCI China ROE has been flat at 12.4% for the last three months. The key question for investors is whether these are the first signs that MSCI China ROE is finally bottoming.
We believe Yes
As discussed in our report of 12 April China PPI leads ROE?, we believe the recent uptick in the China PPI (from -5.9% year-on-year in December 2015 to -2.6% in June 2016) acts as a proxy for commodity prices and leads China's ROE. Figure 2 highlights that MSCI China ROE ex Financials and Energy bottomed at 11.8% in November 2015 and has since risen to 13%. Figure 3 highlights that MSCI China ROE ex Financials (given rising NPLs) has risen from a low of 10.1% to 10.8% currently.
Reiterate our modest 1% Overweight on MSCI China
While our biggest Overweight markets are Korea (the only market with rising ROE in the Asia Pacific) and Taiwan (the only market sitting on net cash), we reiterate our modest 1% Overweight on MSCI China given these early signs of ROE bottoming.
China Economics ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Assessing the impact of floods Ray Farris / Fixed Income Research Analyst / 65 6212 3412 / [email protected] Weishen Deng / Economist / 852 2101 7162 / [email protected]
● China government estimates that recent floods across 11 provinces have destroyed over 73,000 houses, completely destroying 1.7 mn acres of crops, and caused over US$10 bn of economic losses. Over 150 people have died and hundreds of thousands have been displaced, at least temporarily.
● Tragic as this has been, our analysis suggests that the floods are unlikely to have a significant effect on China’s economy at a national level.
● Some temporary production losses and delays to investment activity seem likely. However, our channel checks suggest limited damage to industrial output so far. Most importantly, these should represent delays to production rather than permanent losses, in our view.
● Overall inflation may rise temporarily because of damage to vegetable and pork supplies. But, with underlying inflationary pressure being low, we doubt inflation will rise enough to challenge policy. Full Note
Figure 1: Floods’ impact on GDP is mixed…
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Q-8
Q-7
Q-6 Q-5
Q-4
Q-3
Q-2
Q-1
Q=0
Q+1
Q+2
Q+3
Q+4
Q+5
Q+6
Q+7
Q+8
1998
2010
Real GDP (% QoQ, seasonally adjusted)
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse
Figure 2:…similar to their impact on fixed asset investment
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
year=-2 year=-1 year=0 year=+1 year=+2
1998
2010
Overall Real FAI (% yoy)
Source:CEIC, Credit Suisse
Figure 3: The food price jump earlier this year had little impact on overall inflation
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
FoodCPICore inflation
% yoy
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse
Our analysis suggests that floods are unlikely to have a significant effect on China’s economy at a national level. Economic losses so far have been small relative to what is now a US$10.8 tn economy. Flood management is better today than during the 1998 and 2010 floods and our equity research analysts report that some large industrials have reported no production drops.
Nonetheless, the clear risk is that flooding will worsen. Meteorological studies suggest that the probability is high of further above-average rainfall in China at this stage of the El Nino cycle.
The historical evidence of the impact on growth from the 1998 and 2010 floods is mixed and muddled by external factors— recovery from the 1998 Asian crisis in 1999 and the euro area crisis in 2010/11. Figure 1 shows that sequential GDP growth accelerated in the wake of the 1998 floods, but was essentially steady after the 2010 floods. Fixed asset investment growth rose in 1998, in part in response to spending on flood repair and management, but slowed in 2010 (Figure 2).
Some temporary production losses and delays to investment activity seem likely. However, our channel checks suggest limited damage to industrial output so far. For example, Hubei province's largest auto producer reports no flood-related output loss. Most importantly, these should represent delays to production rather than permanent losses, in our view.
In contrast, we expect agriculture to be the main area that suffers from the floods with a temporary impact on inflation. Nonetheless, we judge inflation risk due to the floods to still be low and maintain our forecast for inflation of 1.8% in 2H. On current information, we believe upside risk to this is about 15% (i.e., taking the CPI in 2H to around 2%). China is better positioned than in the past to sustain some agricultural losses. Our main concern for inflation would be if the recent rise in augmented credit growth is sustained into 2H.
The NDRC has already announced some measures to prevent a significant surge in prices. Local governments will have to increase investment spending to effect repairs. At present this does not seem likely to be material, but could rise to meaningful levels if flooding intensifies over the next couple of months. Similarly, we believe major new flood prevention and management projects are unlikely unless flooding becomes much more severe.
China Economics ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Downhill from here Ray Farris / Fixed Income Research Analyst / 65 6212 3412 / [email protected] Weishen Deng / Economist / 852 2101 7162 / [email protected] Dong Tao / Economist / 852 2101 7469 / [email protected]
● We revise down our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from previous forecast of 6.6%. We forecast that China's GDP growth will slow from about 6.6% (saar) in 2Q to 6.2% in 4Q before new stimulus drives a bounceback to 6.5% in 2017.
● Private investment growth, ex-real estate, has fallen sharply, government spending is set to slow sharply absent new fiscal stimulus, and the export outlook has deteriorated.
● The government is likely to continue to allow some of the balance of payments pressure to clear through CNY depreciation. We forecast USDCNY to rise to about 6.84 by end-2016 and 7.11 by end-2017.
● Monetary policy is likely to play only a passive role in any stimulus. We expect China’s reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to be cut by 100 bp. However, we believe continuing pressure on the CNY greatly limits the scope for lower interest rates. Full report.
We revise down our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from previous forecast of 6.6%. We forecast that China's GDP growth will slow from about 6.6% (saar) in 2Q to 6.2% in 4Q before new stimulus drives a bounceback to 6.5% in 2017. Private investment growth, ex-real estate, has fallen sharply, government spending is set to slow sharply absent new fiscal stimulus, and the export outlook has deteriorated.
Growth momentum has clearly weakened and become more dependent on SOEs and government spending. This reflects the continuing deterioration in investment growth, despite government stimulus. In contrast, real estate investment is likely to rise through 3Q, supporting growth, but even this sector should taper into 4Q. Stronger infrastructure investment supported 1Q growth, but will likely slow in 2H. To be sure, fiscal policy is programmed to tighten in 2H. Official budget spending is planned to rise 2.8% this year, but grew 13.8% in the first five months as the government front-loaded spending. Stronger-than-expected government revenues and land sale revenues so far provide capacity to spend more, but no indications of changes to the official budgets yet exist.
Credit growth is also likely to continue moderating. Growth in total social financing, ex-equity financing, slowed to 12.4% YoY in May from 13.1% in March. Nonetheless, financial sector risk is likely to continue to rise rapidly. Even the official target for total social financing growth of 13% for 2015 implies that debt/GDP will rise, but
we estimate that it is more realistic to think of credit growing about 18% YoY this year. This would push credit/GDP (excluding government and financial bonds) to roughly 235%. Crucially, more of this credit this year is going to the real estate sector, which is dominated by smaller private developers, and takes the form of shadow activity funded by interbank borrowing. It is impossible to forecast when this could result in a problem that requires PBoC support, but we believe the risk is rising. As long as inflation remains low, the government’s capacity to contain the impact on the financial sector of unexpected defaults will remain high, in our view. To be sure, we forecast CPI inflation will remain low at 2% this year and 1.7% in 2017. The stabilisation of commodity prices and demand for basic materials lead us to expect PPI deflation to diminish to -1.5% to -2.0% by the end of 2016.
China's export outlook is proving worse than we expected; we now expect exports to contract 5.5% this year vs our previous forecast for 4.5% growth. We have pushed down our 2017 estimate to 2.0% growth from 5% previously. Some of this reflects export disappointment so far, but our post-Brexit cuts to our outlook for global growth imply a longer period of weaker growth. The widening of the services deficit leads us to expect China’s current account surplus to narrow to US$292 bn or 2.7% of GDP in 2016 and US$286 bn or 2.6% in 2017 from 3.1% of GDP in 2015.
A key implication of these trends is that China's balance of payments will likely remain in deficit. The ongoing surge in outward FDI leads us to expect net FDI to swing from inflows last year to net outflows of about US$77 bn this year and US$84 bn next year.
The government is likely to continue to allow some of this balance of payments pressure to clear through CNY depreciation. We forecast USDCNY to rise to about 6.84 by end-2016 and 7.11 by end-2017. However, our perception is that the government judges the August 2015 devaluation was a mistake that it does not want to repeat. We expect it to draw down on FX reserves to maintain a gradual, almost predictable, pace of depreciation.
Monetary policy is likely to play only a passive role in any stimulus, with the PBoC keeping banking sector liquidity conditions ample and backing away from recent greater oversight on lending. We expect China's reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to be cut by 100 bp, but stress that this is more likely to be simply to manage liquidity levels for the current interest rate structure rather than to lower rates. We see a chance that the PBoC could cut its policy guidance rates by another 25 bp later this year if the US Fed remains dovish. However, we believe continuing pressure on the CNY greatly limits the scope for lower interest rates.
APAC Oil & Gas Sector --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CS raises 2016/17 oil price forecast Horace Tse / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7379 / [email protected] David Hewitt / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3064 / [email protected]
● CS Global Energy Team has raised near-term oil price forecast. Our new forecast (Brent) is $44/bbl in 2016 (from $38) and to $56/bbl in 2017 (from $54). Long-term remains unchanged at $70/bbl.
● Supply – broadly flat YoY (2016 vs 2015). We forecast growth in Iran, Iraq and Russia this year, but declines in the US, Venezuela, China, Nigeria and Colombia fully offset those gains.
● Demand – expects below-trend demand in 2017. We reduce our 2016 demand forecast to 1.4mb/d and materially reduce 2017 demand to just 900kb/d. As a result, the inventory draw required to rebalance excess inventories will take the majority of 2017, with incremental US supply being required in 2018 as we reach $60+.
● In China we continue to prefer CNOOC amid best execution on costs/returns vs peers. In Australia we prefer Santos, the most leveraged of the upstream plays. In India we prefer the Oil Marketing companies, specifically BPCL on strong demand growth. In Thailand we prefer PTT over PTTEP. In Japan we prefer Inpex with an (albeit delayed) strong earnings growth profile. Link to report
Valuation metrics Company Ticker Rating Price Year P/E (x) P/B (x)
Local Target T T+1 T+2 T+1
CNOOC 0883.HK O 9.82 11.50 12/15 n.m. 16.5 1.1 PetroChina (H) 0857.HK U 5.41 4.10 12/15 n.m. 40.9 0.8 Sinopec (H) 0386.HK N 5.78 5.00 12/15 19.1 11.2 0.9 Santos STO.AX O 4.80 4.10 12/15 n.m. 17.3 0.8 BPCL BPCL.BO O 545 600 03/15 9.9 10.7 2.8 IOCL IOC.BO O 478 530 03/15 10.4 8.4 1.5 ONGC ONGC.BO N 234 235 03/15 14.2 11.3 1.1 OILI OILI.BO N 371 375 03/15 11.2 9.5 1.0 PTT PTT.BK N 315 280 12/15 12.8 10.3 1.2 PTTEP PTTEP.BK U 82.2 73.0 12/15 38.7 14.3 0.8 Inpex 1605.T O 801 1,180 03/16 36.4 20.2 0.5
Note: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 1: Credit Suisse oil price forecast—new vs old (US$/bbl) 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E LT
China – Prefer CNOOC > Sinopec > PetroChina: We like CNOOC being the best in execution in terms of cost/capex discipline plus improved returns (increased payout). We are concerned about PetroChina & Sinopec's reserves write-down and see risk of another significant write-down this year.
Australia – Santos is the most leveraged play: Big cap Australian E&Ps continue to price in ~US$65/bbl oil to perpetuity according to our models. Our preferred play on a 12-month view remains Santos. Whilst the business has a number of longer term (3-5 year) challenges to resolve, the next 12 months should provide relatively pure oil leverage with a bit of positive support from self-help in the form of a well-publicised cost out story.
Figure 2: Global supply / demand – history + CS forecast
India – prefer IOCL & BPCL over HPCL: While the recent Kerosene subsidy reform helps upstream stocks (ONGC, Oil India), weak production momentum and subdued gas prices continue to be key overhangs. While CS Global Energy Team expect oil prices to recover to $68/bbl by CY18, due to ad-hoc government policy, the upside for upstream stocks are capped beyond oil at $45/bbl (at current policy). We remain positive on the Oil Marketing Companies.
Thailand – prefer PTT over PTTEP: We have an UNDERPEROFRM rating on PTTEP with concerns on declining reserves. We expect PTTEP's reserve to continue to deplete especially now that the process of Bongkot concession renewal is delayed further. According to latest schedule of the Energy Ministry, the bidding on concession extension is scheduled for 3Q17. Chances of a further delay is possible especially if there is an election and there is a new government by then. Further delay would increase chances of volume decline from 2019 onwards.
Figure 3: Actual and forecast stock changes (Mb/d)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
implied inventory change 3 mma
reported inventory change 3 mma
Source: IEA, EIA, JODI, Country Data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Japan – Prefer Inpex for earnings growth: We move to a 2018 project start up at Inpex's Australian LNG project - Ichthys, which delays the company's earnings ramp-up slightly but the earnings trajectory is still robustly positive in the medium term; whereas with the shutting in of the pilot production at Japex's Canadian oil sands project their earnings future is far less certain.
Asia Oil Weekly -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Inauguration Horace Tse / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7379 / [email protected] Jessie Xu / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7650 / [email protected]
● This is an inaugural issue of our new Asia Oil Weekly product. This research product aims at recapping key news and material changes in the Asia Oil & Gas space over the past week, with key charts highlighting the latest price/demand trend in the region. Full report.
● Oil price (Brent) fell 3% WoW to $45. The US crude oil inventory data drew slower than expected. April's US gasoline demand (pre-driving season) was only +1% YoY, much lower than what the prior weekly data suggested. CS Singapore GRM were flat WoW at $8.8/bbl.
● Horace Tse assumes primary coverage on the large-cap Chinese Oils following a realignment of stock coverage. ExxonMobil's world-class discovery in offshore Guyana (CNOOC owns 25% via Nexen) is estimated to have 0.8-1.4 bn boe recoverable resource. Our assessment suggests that the block could be worth $5 bn, or HK$0.2/sh accretion to CNOOC with further exploration upside.
● Bloomberg reported that ExxonMobil is looking to buy stakes in Mozambique Area 1 project (PTTEP owns 8.5%). We believe this is negative to PTTEP, as a new development plan is likely but would mean another three years of delay from PTTEP's current plan.
Valuation Metrics Company Ticker Rating Price Year P/E (x) P/B (x)
Local Target T T+1 T+2 T+1
PetroChina (H) 0857.HK U 5.23 4.00 12/15 n.m. 41.5 0.8 Sinopec (H) 0386.HK N 5.40 5.00 12/15 33.3 10.8 0.8 CNOOC 0883.HK O 9.49 11.20 12/15 n.m. 17.1 1.1 PTTEP PTTEP.BK U 82.00 73.00 12/15 38.6 14.2 0.8
Note: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Downhill from here. CS' China Economics Team has cut its China GDP forecast—now expecting GDP to reach 6.3% in 4Q16, slowest growth print since 1992 (excluding 1Q19 during GFC). China oil demand has been resilient YTD (+2%), but a potential further slowdown in industrial activities would likely depress diesel demand, which is already in doldrums (-8% YTD).
Figure 1: China oil demand growth is highly correlated to GDP growth
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
1Q15
1Q16
China oil demand growth (3MMA) - LHS China GDP growth - RHS
Source: China OGP, CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates.
Figure 2: CS Singapore GRM (6-2-3-1 margin)
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2015 2016 Avg
(US$/bbl) Shaded area indicates historical 5-year range
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research
Figure 3: India total oil product demand growth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3mma YoY, kb/d, LHS 3mma YoY%, RHS
(kb/d)
Source: PPAC, Credit Suisse Research
Figure 4: Asia O&G – 1W performance
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
GAI
L In
dia
Kunl
un
Sino
pec
PTTE
P
CN
OO
C
Sino
. Kan
tons
Petro
Chi
na
Oil
Indi
a
CO
SL
Sino
. SSC
ON
GC
PTT
SEG
Cai
rn In
dia
Rel
ianc
e
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Credit Suisse Research
Figure 5: MSCI NJA Energy 12-month forward P/B – 2012 to current
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
(x)
+1 S.D. = 1.4x
-1 S.D. = 0.9x
Avg. = 1.1x
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Credit Suisse Research
Asia Semiconductor Sector --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: China smartphone chain—some lift from better volumes and new markets Randy Abrams, CFA / Research Analyst / 886 2 2715 6366 / [email protected] Haas Liu / Research Analyst / 886 2 2715 6365 / [email protected]
● China smartphone update. We provide our bi-yearly update on China smartphone trends following MWC and CES Shanghai and meetings across the chain. The market is healthier through 1H16 and supplemented by continuous content gains and a push into IoT/connected home, auto, wearables and VR. Full report.
● Chipset units offset by pricing. We project China-built smartphones reaccelerating to +14% YoY due to subsidies and 4G EM penetration. Chipset volumes are strong, but risks persist on pricing and overbooking triggering a correction by 4Q16.
● Display boosted by mid-end smartphones. Panels are seeing spot shortages and mid-range shift to FHD and high-end to WQHD or OLED. New technologies such as force touch, fingerprint sensor, dual camera and quick charge are the main selling points for mid-end smartphone makers.
● Stocks: Favour content / share gains at firm margins. Top picks include Egis, Himax, Largan, TSMC, Win Semi, AAC, Tongda and Truly. While MediaTek's build has been strong, we keep our Neutral stance on pricing and inventory correction risks.
Figure 1: Auto/IoT/VR/Wearables rising vs smartphones
Semiconductor market size (US$mn) Auto, IoT, VR and wearables% of smartphone market
Source: Credit Suisse estimates
We provide our bi-yearly update on China smartphone trends following MWC, CES Shanghai and meetings across the chain. The market is healthier through 1H16 with unit demand up 10% YTD and supplemented by continuous content gains and a push into IoT/connected home, auto, wearables and VR.
Figure 2: China-built smartphones pacing +14% YoY in '16 China brand units (mn) 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 15-18 CAGR
Huawei 52.0 77.0 107.0 130.0 145.0 160.0 14%
Oppo 11.0 30.0 40.0 75.0 90.0 100.0 36%
Xiaomi 18.7 61.1 72.5 68.0 71.0 75.0 1%
BBK/Vivo 11.2 30.0 36.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 30%
ZTE 40.0 48.0 50.0 54.8 58.4 63.2 8%
Lenovo 45.5 59.4 43.5 41.0 41.0 41.8 -1%
Lenovo's Moto 26.3 26.3 26.3 NM
TCL/Alcatel 17.5 39.6 40.8 40.8 45.7 52.7 9%
Coolpad 35.0 43.5 28.7 30.1 32.7 36.2 8%
Meizu 3.0 5.2 24.8 22.0 23.0 25.0 0%
Gionee 11.4 16.0 12.8 27.0 32.0 36.0 41%
Tecno 2.0 4.0 7.5 8.0 9.0 10.0 10%
Hisense 8.3 11.7 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 -13%
Tianyu / K-Touch 13.3 11.2 4.3 2.0 1.0 - -100%
Bird 2.1 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 -6%
G-Five 2.0 5.0 0.5 - - - -100%
Others 193.1 278.9 302.0 297.7 301.7 288.8 -1%
China brand units (mn) 466.1 723.1 777.6 888.7 951.8 1,000.0 9%
(1) China/Export mid-range smartphone demand healthy; (2) Processors see MediaTek take share but at aggressive pricing; (3) Smartphone platforms further upgrade camera, display, memory and processing, (4) China brands accelerate diversification into a diverse range of IoT products (wearables, home automation, drones, and robots) and (5) VR proliferates across multiple Chinese platforms.
Chipset units offset by pricing
We project China built smartphones reaccelerating from +8% YoY in 2015 to +14% YoY due to China subsidies and ramp from 30% 4G EM penetration. Chipset volumes are strong, but risks persist on pricing and overbooking triggering a correction by 4Q16 with MediaTek units +35% YoY to 540 mn annualised pace in 2Q16.
Figure 3: MediaTek's shipment growth is offset by declining ASPs
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
$21
$24
$27
$30
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E
3G units 4G Mainstream units 4G Helio unitsBlended SP ASP 4G Helio ASP 4G Mainstream ASP3G ASP
Smartphone shipment (mn units) Smartphone ASP (US$)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
Display boosted by mid-end smartphones
We project China built smartphones reaccelerating from +8% YoY in 2015 to +14% YoY due to China subsidies and ramp from 30% 4G EM penetration. Chipset volumes are strong, but risks persist on pricing and overbooking triggering a correction by 4Q16 with MediaTek units +35% YoY to 540 mn annualised pace in 2Q16.
Stocks: Favour content / share gains at firm margins
Top picks include Egis (fingerprint gains into Samsung/China), Himax (small panel ramp and AR/VR), Largan (rising specs/dual camera), TSMC (strong share/technology) and Win Semi (RF content gains). While MediaTek's build has been strong, we keep our Neutral stance on pricing and inventory correction risks.
China Basic Materials Sector ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change of China macro forecast—impact on basic materials Trina Chen / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7031 / [email protected] Joy Zhang / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7083 / [email protected] Gary Xu / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7017 / [email protected]
● CS economics team expects decelerating China GDP growth in 2H16E, and revised the USDCNY exchange rate for 2017 (from 6.98 to 7.11). The forecasts are mostly in line with our base case estimates, where metal/coal demand is soft and construction demand to remain supported.
● Our base case for construction demand assumes one round of infrastructure project starts, that mostly received financing in 1Q16, yet with ramp ups extending through the course of 2016E. The long duration of infrastructure projects also provides stabilisation to demand in 2017E, in our view. Property remains a swing factor.
● We believe much of the S/D improvement in 1H16E in China’s commodity space, including steel, coal and cement, has also been driven by supply side reform, and we see continued execution in 2H16E and 2017E.
● On a relative basis, with further RMB depreciation, we estimate more positive earnings impact for metals and gold, whereas more negatives for paper, all else equal. Our top picks are Conch, Angang, and Lee & Man. Least preferred are Shenhua, JXC and Chalco.
Figure 1: Sector summary—China basic materials Company Ticker Price Mktcap P/E (x) P/B (x)Price as of Jul 7 Tccy US$bn 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17EAngang 0347.HK O 5.2 3.6 3.4 12.9 6.6 0.5 0.5 4% 7%Baosteel 600019.SS O 8.6 4.9 12.4 10.0 9.1 0.7 0.6 7% 7%Magang 0323.HK O 2.0 1.7 1.7 8.6 5.6 0.5 0.5 6% 8%Shenhua 1088.HK U 8.8 14.1 36.1 18.9 17.9 0.8 0.8 4% 4%Chinacoal 1898.HK U 2.7 4.1 6.9 n.a. n.a. 0.6 0.6 -6% -1%Yanzhou 1171.HK U 2.9 5.1 3.2 n.a. n.a. 0.6 0.6 -4% 1%Yitai 3948.HK U 3.8 3.9 1.6 n.a. 33.8 0.5 0.5 -2% 1%Conch 0914.HK O 28.0 18.4 12.5 10.7 7.1 1.1 1.0 10% 14%WCC 2233.HK U 0.9 0.7 0.4 n.a. 36.6 0.6 0.6 -1% 2%BBMG 2009.HK O 5.4 2.4 1.5 6.7 5.8 0.5 0.5 8% 8%Sinoma 1893.HK N 1.7 1.7 0.8 6.7 4.0 0.3 0.3 5% 7%CRC 1313.HK O 4.0 2.4 2.0 12.6 6.6 0.6 0.5 5% 8%CNBM 3323.HK N 3.8 3.4 2.4 7.8 5.0 0.3 0.3 4% 5%Shanshui 0691.HK U 1.7 6.3 2.7 n.a. n.a. 2.6 2.7 -26% -6%TCCI 1136.HK O 1.8 1.3 0.5 n.a. 8.0 0.3 0.3 0% 4%JXC 0358.HK U 7.8 9.2 4.1 33.4 34.1 0.6 0.6 2% 2%Chalco 2600.HK U 2.2 2.6 4.6 n.a. n.a. 0.9 1.0 -11% -7%Rusal 0486.HK N 3.9 2.4 4.8 4.1 n.a. 3.2 1.4 78% 55%MMG 1208.HK O 2.7 2.0 1.4 12.2 6.7 1.8 1.4 14% 21%Zijin 2899.HK O 3.0 2.9 8.1 17.3 13.4 1.7 1.6 10% 12%Zhaojin 1818.HK U 5.0 9.1 3.5 33.8 31.3 2.5 2.3 7% 7%ND Paper 2689.HK O 6.0 5.8 3.5 12.9 16.0 0.9 0.9 4% 8%Lee&Man 2314.HK O 6.8 5.8 3.5 11.9 11.4 1.3 1.5 14% 13%
ROERate TP
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 2: Earnings sensitivity to RMB changes (5%)
Shr px Rat Tar
In rpt ccy Ticker HK$/sh ing get 16E 17E 16E 17ESteel sectorAngang 0347.HK 3.64 O 5.2 0.236 0.459 3% 5%Baosteel 600019.SS 4.90 O 8.6 0.489 0.539 7% 5%Magang 0323.HK 1.74 O 2.0 0.170 0.259 2% 6%Coal sectorShenhua 1088.HK 14.14 U 8.8 0.624 0.660 -1% 0%Chinacoal 1898.HK 4.06 U 2.7 (0.374) (0.070) 5% 11%Yanzhou 1171.HK 5.07 U 2.9 (0.257) 0.092 9% 18%Yitai 3948.HK 3.92 U 3.8 (0.109) 0.097 7% 7%Cement sectorConch 0914.HK 18.44 O 28.0 1.438 2.170 0% 0%WCC 2233.HK 0.72 U 0.9 (0.011) 0.016 -10% -7%BBMG 2009.HK 2.44 O 5.4 0.303 0.350 0% 0%Sinoma 1893.HK 1.67 N 1.7 0.207 0.349 0% 0%CRC 1313.HK 2.44 O 4.0 0.194 0.367 -41% -22%CNBM 3323.HK 3.43 N 3.8 0.366 0.569 0% 0%Shanshui 0691.HK 6.29 U 1.7 (0.544) (0.110) 0% 0%TCCI 1136.HK 1.28 O 1.8 0.020 0.160 -197% -30%Base metals sectorJXC 0358.HK 9.19 U 7.8 0.230 0.225 10% 10%Chalco 2600.HK 2.64 U 2.2 (0.260) (0.145) 8% n.aZijin 2899.HK 2.93 O 3.0 0.142 0.183 16% 18%Zhaojin 1818.HK 9.08 U 5.0 0.225 0.242 39% 36%PaperND Paper 2689.HK 5.79 O 6.0 0.226 0.495 -21% -24%Lee&Man 2314.HK 5.77 O 6.8 0.572 0.601 -10% -11%
EPS ChangeEPS
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
We estimate that a 5% move in Rmb (all else equal) could lead to 2-7% changes for steel, -1%-+18% changes for coal, -197% to -7% changes for cement, 8-39% changes for base metals, -24% to -10% changes for paper.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 8 July 2016.
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 23
HK/China Utilities Sector ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Ahead of the 1H16 results—gem and stones Dave Dai, CFA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7358 / [email protected] Gary Zhou, CFA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6648 / [email protected] Gloria Yan / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7369 / [email protected]
● The growth momentum of China utilities is likely to slow with recurring earnings expanding only 1% in 1H16 (+14% in FY15). Wind operators (+20%) are likely to lead the growth, thanks to large finance cost savings, followed by gas (+15%) and hydro (+14%). IPPs' earnings could drop (-13%). Full report.
● In Hong Kong, CKI and PAH could see their earnings slightly affected by FX losses with larger impact in 2H16. But we do not expect a dividend drop given PAH's strong net cash position and CKI's relatively lower dividend payout ratio.
● Three names have room to exceed expectations: Huaneng Renewables (+59%, higher than profit alert), China Yangtze Power (+33% ex. injections) and CR Gas (+20%). Meanwhile, earnings disappointments are likely for Huadian (-5%) and CR Power (-17%) and we have cut our earnings across IPPs on lower volume and RMB assumption changes.
● Pecking order: wind, gas, hydro, and IPPs. Variables to monitor: execution of minimum hour policy, movement of short-term coal prices and tariffs, and CKI/PAH's bid in Australia.
Figure 1: Recurring net profit growth in 1H16E (CS estimate)
20%
14%
-13%
15%
3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Wind Hy dro IPPs Gas HK
Source: Credit Suisse estimates
China—slowdown with divergence. The growth momentum of China utilities may take a break with recurring profit turning from +14% growth in FY15 to only +1% growth in 1H16. Across the power sub-sectors, we forecast wind operators, thanks to their large finance cost savings, to harness the best growth rate (+20%), followed by hydro operators (+14%), on output momentum. On the flip side, IPPs' earnings could drop (-13%) given the volume and tariff pressure. City gas distributors should enjoy a more stable half year (+15%) with mild volume pick-up and stable connections.
Figure 2: Thermal power output trend (YoY)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
Feb
11
Jun-
11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Jul-1
2
Nov
-12
Apr
-13
Aug
-13
Dec
-13
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
Feb
15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
(% )
Total Thermal
Source: CEIC
Hong Kong—dividends still rule. Following Brexit outcome and correction of GBP/USD in later June, we expect CKI and PAH's reported earnings to be slightly affected by FX losses with larger impact likely in 2H16. However, as argued previously, we do not expect a dividend drop given PAH's strong net cash position and CKI's relatively lower dividend payout ratio. Rather, the recent correction has made risk-reward more appealing for PAH/CKI.
Best versus worst positioned. We have selected three names with strong 1H16 earnings prospects with room to exceed expectations: Huaneng Renewables (+59%), China Yangtze Power (+33% ex. injections), and CR Gas (+20%). Meanwhile, earnings disappointments are likely for Huadian (-5%) and CR Power (-17%) and we cut our earnings/TPs across IPPs in this report. Sector pecking order: wind, gas, hydro and IPPs.
Figure 3: Seasonal analysis of hydro utilisation rate
15202530354045505560
Jan-FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(%)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: CEIC
Other variables on the move. Besides the results, investors should beware changing variables such as: (1) execution of minimum utilisation hours policy, effective July, setting to lift wind output recovery for operators; (2) any upside surprises in short-term coal prices putting further pressure on IPP earnings in 2H16; (3) IPPs' low-tariff direct sales growth during 1H16 (likely to be disclosed at the results; (4) progress of the Ausgrid bid (relevant to PAH and CKI) in July-August.
Macau Gaming Sector ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buying into summer may not be a good idea; 2Q preview Kenneth Fong / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6395 / [email protected] Isis Wong / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7109 / [email protected] Lok Kan Chan / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6390 / [email protected]
● While investors could be tempted to buy Macau names into the seasonally stronger summer holiday, we continue to believe that it is too early to bottom fish based on the following four reasons.
● (1) Weak fundamentals: Our check indicates weak junket sentiment amid regulatory overhang. A weak VIP may slow the premium mass recovery. Besides, with a more pronounced seasonality, we suggest investors look at the overall trend (2Q mass -4% QoQ vs historical +1%) rather than simply buying into a seasonal rebound of GGR. (2) Earnings momentum: 2Q EBITDA could fall 7% QoQ, the first decline since 2Q15. We see the risk for a street downgrade. Sands, Galaxy and SJM might report weaker-than-peers 2Q.
● (3) Catalysts: Assuming the same pace of recovery (4% /quarter of narrowing YY decline), 3Q GGR YoY change is likely to stay in negative territory. (4) Valuation: Trading at 12x 2017 EBITDA (historical average), we see unattractive risk/reward here.
● We continue to advise investors to revisit the sector either with a valuation 10-15% lower (i.e. level of 1Q lows) or closer to late 3Q. Recommend Galaxy (low HK$20s) and Wynn (post opening).
Figure 1: Macau Gaming valuation comparison (as of 11 July 2016) Pot. P/E EV/EBITDA CS TP up/down (x) (x)
Company Ticker Rating (l.c.) (%) 16E 17E 18E 16E 17E 18E
MGM China 2282.HK O 12.50 24 16.4 16.8 13.0 14.5 11.4 8.2 Melco Crown MPEL.OQ N 13.40 12 41.1 33.5 18.8 8.6 7.6 6.6 SJM 0880.HK N 5.40 17 13.7 29.8 18.1 7.9 13.7 7.8 Galaxy 0027.HK O 28.20 23 22.4 23.6 21.1 9.5 8.8 7.5 Sands China 1928.HK N 27.50 8 23.5 21.1 21.6 15.5 14.9 15.1 Wynn Macau 1128.HK O 13.50 21 30.4 15.9 13.0 16.2 11.5 9.9
Sector average 24.9 22.4 19.3 13.1 12.1 11.1
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates
Fundamentals: Underlying still weak; July/Aug will mark a seasonal but not a fundamental improvement
According to channel checks, July GGR is off a weak start with daily revenue of MOP525 mn (1-10 July), depressed by weak VIP volume, seasonality and to a lesser extent Euro cup. Industry participants generally expect the GGR to pick up into summer holiday with mass likely to pick up faster than VIP. Junket sentiments are still weak amid regulatory overhang. We learn that junket operators continue to move business overseas (e.g. Suncity and Neptune) or downsize/exit the industry (e.g., AG group to close VIP rooms in Galaxy Macau phase 2 in Aug).
Over the past two years, Macau sees a significant change in player mix – fewer high-end and hard core gamblers. With more leisure players, the revenue is decent in weekends and high seasons but much slower in the down time. In fact, looking back at the past nine months, GGR surprised the market on the upside for the months of Dec (Christmas), Feb (CNY), first week of May (labour day). The key for a healthy recovery is an improvement in demand even in slower season. As such, even if we are expected to see GGR pick up into summer holiday, it is more a seasonal one than a fundamental change. We suggest investors to look at the overall trend (even mass GGR -4% QoQ, dragged somehow by premium
mass, vs historical average of +1% from 2005-15) than simply buying into a seasonal rebound of GGR.
After all, even if the seasonally stronger July/Aug GGR could go back to c.MOP600mn/day or 13% up from June, it is merely going back to the January level, a month with no major long holidays.
Earnings momentum: Street downgrade in 2Q earnings
Looking back, the street did not revise earnings forecasts in 2Q despite a slower-than-expected revenue. We see earnings downside risk when operators start to report their 2Q numbers in July. Overall, we expect 2Q EBITDA to fall by 7% QoQ, the first decline since 2Q15.
Figure 2: Summary for 2Q16 EBITDA forecast Reporting
A weaker 2Q (both for earnings and top line) has dampened the recovery/stabilisation trend built over the past few quarters. It could re-ignite investors' concerns on industry fundamentals, especially with two new casinos due to open in 3Q16.
Catalysts: GGR trend likely to turn positive only till 4Q
GGR decline narrowed from -27% YoY in 4Q15 to -13% in 1Q16 and -9% in 2Q16. The rate of improvement has moderated in the last quarter. Looking ahead, if we were to assume the same pace of narrowing (an 4% QoQ improvement), 3Q16 GGR should still decline by 5% YoY or low single digit decline even if we factor in benefit from new openings. We expect the GGR growth to turn positive only until 4Q, and that could present a better timing for entry.
Valuation: Unattractive risk/reward at historical average multiple
On our earnings estimate, which is adjusted for the lower-than-expected revenue in 2Q, the sector is now trading at 12x 2017 EBITDA (in line with historical average). We consider the risk/reward unattractive here.
Considering absolute GGR (2Q: -8% QoQ), momentum (pace of decline narrowing has moderated) and supply outlook (two new casinos opened in 3Q), industry fundamentals are arguably worse than that in early 2016. We continue to see risk for the sector to re-test its prior lows (or ~10-15% lower). We suggest revisiting Wynn if there is any potential correction post its opening after its outperformance YTD. Galaxy's valuation is undemanding at 9x EBITDA. We see any correction to low HK$20s or 10% FCF yield as an attractive entry point.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 12 July 2016.
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 25
Blackmores Ltd ------------------------------------------ Initiating Coverage with OUTPERFORM China retail: The remedy to reach A$175 Ben Levin / Research Analyst / 61 3 9280 1766 / [email protected] Larry Gandler / Research Analyst / 61 3 9280 1855 / [email protected]
● We initiate coverage on Blackmores with an OUTPERFORM rating and a A$175 TP. Blackmores is a leading Australian supplier of vitamins and dietary supplements (VDS) ideally positioned to grow in China—the second largest VDS market in the world. Full report
● We see a new opportunity emerging in what we expect to be a US$10 bn China VDS market through the bricks and mortar retail channel by FY20. We believe Blackmores could capture US$150 mn (A$200 mn), adding 80% to its existing China sales base as new regulations assist Blackmores in tapping this large market.
● While in China, industry participants widely acknowledged Blackmores' potential to succeed and we estimate Blackmores has achieved a 4.5% market share in the online VDS market (including cross-border e-commerce and daigou). New regulations from the Chinese Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) should significantly expand its product range within Chinese stores.
● An attractive investment opportunity with a 16% EPS CAGR to FY20 and a 60% ROE—highest among ASX200 and global peers: At 17x FY18E EPS, Blackmores also trades below China VDS peers.
Click here for detailed financials
Blackmores is a leading Australian supplier of vitamins and dietary supplements (VDS) commanding a 20% domestic market share. Surging demand from Chinese consumers has caused the company's revenue to double in less than two years, with Chinese consumers now accounting for ~40% of group revenue. We envision another leg of growth doubling China revenue to A$580mn by FY20 or 50% of the group.
China on-shore retail may add US$150 mn (A$200 mn) in sales. New 'orange hat' regulation should enhance market access. Blackmores should soon be able to register a larger product portfolio inside China, thereby expanding distribution and shelf presence in
Chinese stores. In China, we observed pent-up demand for Blackmores' products underpinned by the perception of high quality.
Figure 1: China retail or 'direct' sales contribute the bulk of future revenue growth
472
706810
9211037
1161
A$0mn
A$200mn
A$400mn
A$600mn
A$800mn
A$1,000mn
A$1,200mn
A$1,400mn
FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
Australia, Infant Formula, BioCeuticals, NZ and Paw
Other Asia China Direct China Indirect
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Blackmores' exports to China should continue to grow. Granted, the widely discussed 'Positive List' rule restricts export volume via the cross-border e-commerce channel. But, 70% of Blackmores' volume travels via the daigou channel—e.g., Australia-based selling agents using China personal post. Channel checks reveal daigou has been less affected.
An attractive investment opportunity with 16% EPS CAGR to FY20 and a 60% ROE—highest among ASX200 and global peers. At 17x FY18E EPS, Blackmores is also trading below China VDS peers. Our DCF based target price implies a re-rating to 19x FY19 PE which is justifiable considering there are 30 ASX200 industrials on a higher P/E with less growth and lower returns.
Figure 2: Blackmores is trading below 30 ASX 200 Industrials that have (1) less EPS growth; and (2) lower ROE (black circles)
Source: IBES, company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Key risk: Further regulation extending to the daigou channel. A bear case of A$95/share assumes a 30% cut to Australian indirect China sales (mainly daigou) from the current level, stunted development of China retail, pricing pressure and no EPS growth for four years.
(This is an extract from the Blackmores initiation report, "China retail: The remedy to reach A$175," published on 12 July 2016. For details, please see the CS Plus website.)
Extract from the Asian Daily, 13 July 2016.
Bbg/RIC BKL AU / BKL.AX Rating (prev. rating) O (NA) [V] Shares outstanding (mn) 17.23 Daily trad vol - 6m avg (mn) 0.2 Daily trad val - 6m avg (US$ mn) 33.6 Free float (%) 71.8 Major shareholders
Price (12 Jul 16, A$) 135.90 TP (prev. TP A$) 175.00 (NA) Est. pot. % chg. to TP 29 52-wk range (A$) 220.9-73.0 Mkt cap (A$/US$ mn) 2,340.9/ 1,777.7
Note 1: Blackmores is a leading Australian supplier of vitamins and nutritional supplements with a history that dates back 80 years. It not only sells in Australia but throughout 15 countries throughout Asia Pacific.
● Given abundant domestic coal availability, we expect e-auction prices to stay weak (link). This should benefit Hindalco which procures ~75% of its coal through auctions. Although Hindalco's Al power costs fell by ~US$150/t in 4Q, the savings are yet to be fully modelled-in by the street (scepticism around its sustainability).
● While some gains could get reversed (~US$35/t, courtesy higher clean energy cess), we now build-in US$70/t lower power cost given how closely Hindalco's cost tracks e-auction prices (Figure 1).
● With the sharp rise in global thermal coal prices (+21% in 3M), we see upside risks to our LME Al assumptions (US$1,618/t for FY17 vs US$1,662/t spot). Alumina too is up 23% vs its Jan-16 lows, giving further support to the cost curve. Hindalco remains highly sensitive to LME Al prices (Figure 2). Key risk to Al: stronger DXY.
● We build-in lower costs. Our FY17/18 EBITDA moves up by 7%/3% leading to a steeper rise in EPS (10-29%). Our new TP of Rs163 (6.5x EV-EBITDA for domestic, 8x for Novelis) calls for only a 7% change in EV. Hindalco remains cheap and also features as one of the top cyclical picks in the CS Regional portfolio (link).
Click here for detailed financials
Impact of lower power costs not fully built-in
Given abundant domestic coal availability, we expect e-auction prices to stay weak (link). This should benefit Hindalco which procures ~75% of its coal through auctions. Although Hindalco's Al power costs fell by ~US$150/t in 4Q, the savings are yet to be fully modelled-in by the street (scepticism around its sustainability).
While some gains could get reversed (~US$35/t, courtesy higher clean energy cess), we now build-in US$70/t lower power cost given how closely Hindalco's cost tracks e-auction prices (Figure 1).
With the sharp rise in global thermal coal prices (+21% in 3M), we see upside risks to our LME Al assumptions (US$1,618/t for FY17 vs US$1,662/t spot). Alumina too is up 23% vs its Jan-16 lows, giving further support to the cost curve. Hindalco remains highly sensitive to LME Al prices (Figure 2). Key risk to Al: stronger DXY.
Figure 1: Hindalco's power costs closely linked to CIL's e-auction prices
600
720
840
960
1,080
1,200
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
Coal India's e-auction ASP (Rs/t) Power cost ($/t of Al, RHS)
We build-in lower costs. Our FY17/18 EBITDA moves up by 7%/3% leading to a steeper rise in EPS (10-29%). Our new TP of Rs163 (6.5x EV-EBITDA for domestic, 8x for Novelis) calls for only a 7% change in EV. Hindalco remains cheap and also features as one of the top cyclical picks in the CS Regional portfolio (link).
Figure 3: Current valuations reasonable vs history
Note 1: ORD/ADR=1.00. Note 2: Hindalco is a fully-integrated Aluminum producer in India and a leading downstream Al player globally through its subsidiary, Novelis. It also operates a 400kt Copper smelter in India and owns copper mines in Australia.
● We reiterate LICHF as our preferred pick in the Indian NBFC space. The company's earnings are highly sensitive to bond yields, and the continued fall in yields (15 bp in the last fortnight), while lending rates remain stable, should help. Full report.
● The upcoming pay commission stimulus should help: LICHF has the highest exposure to government staff, and housing is likely to be key areas of spending from this additional income. LICHF's leverage to pay commission played out in the previous round too. We expect growth to accelerate on the back of this.
● Our checks with branches of LICHF and industry discussions give us comfort that any worries on the LAP business are misplaced. LIC's LAP product is distinct from the industry norm, and hence should be seen differently on credit risk and competition.
● The stock has underperformed the mid-cap NBFC space by ~20% YTD. We see LICHF's stock as attractive at 9x and 2x FY18 P/E and P/B, respectively, for strong earnings growth and ROE. Our TP moves up to Rs625 on roll forward. Maintain OUTPERFORM.
Click here for detailed financials
Branch checks give comfort on LAP exposure
In almost no time, LICHF has quickly grown to be a top 5 player in the LAP market. Investor concern on this count is understandable: we have ourselves flagged worries on the LAP segment in the past. However, our checks with company branches across the country and discussions in the industry indicate that the company is offering significantly different product vs the industry. We believe LICHF's LAP is more of a secured, low-priced alternative to personal loans for salaried borrowers, and unlike the larger ticket business loans to self-employed borrowers, which is the industry practice.
Pay commission beneficiary
We see the housing sector as a key beneficiary of the government's pay commission stimulus (note). LICHF, with its high (50%) exposure to government salaried borrowers, is a direct play on this theme. Indeed, the company saw acceleration in growth the last time too.
Low/falling bond yields a catalyst
While NBFCs in general are considered rate-sensitive stocks, we believe LICHF has amongst the highest earnings sensitivities to wholesale/bond yields (4% earnings increase for every 10 bp fall in bond yields). While we expect spreads to converge to FY16 incremental rates of 210 bp over the next couple of years, the recent sharp fall in bond yields provides further upside to our numbers.
Figure 1: LICHF benefitted from pay-commission implementation last time; we expect the company to benefit from growth rates this time too
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Figure 2: Wholesale rates remain supportive—we expect margin gains to continue for LICHF
-
50
100
150
200
250
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Spreads (bps) FY16 ncremental spreads (bps)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 3: LICHF's LAP is quite different from the rest of the industry Parameter Industry Norm LICHF
Customer profile Self-employed, businessmen Salaried borrowers (70%+) End use of funds Business investment,
working capital Personal consumption like education, marriages, home improvement, etc.
Type of property Residential (60%) and commercial (40%)
Predominantly Residential
Ticket size of loans (Rs mn)
12 Less than 2
Lending rates (%) 12-14% 11.50%
Source: CRISIL, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 13 July 2016.
Bbg/RIC LICHF IN / LICH.BO Rating (prev. rating) O (O) Shares outstanding (mn) 504.66 Daily trad vol - 6m avg (mn) 2.3 Daily trad val - 6m avg (US$ mn) 15.9 Free float (%) 59.7 Major shareholders LIC
Price (11 Jul 16 , Rs) 523.55 TP (prev. TP Rs) 625.00 (590.00) Est. pot. % chg. to TP 19 52-wk range (Rs) 523.6 - 391.8 Mkt cap (Rs/US$ bn) 264.2/ 3.9
Note 1: LIC Housing Finance Limited provides loans for purchase, construction, repairs and renovation of houses to individuals, corporate bodies, builders and co-operative housing societies and has its operations within India.
POSCO --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maintain OUTPERFORM New report: Supply reform in China real this time EPS: ◄► TP: ◄► Minseok Sinn / Research Analyst / 82 2 3707 8898 / [email protected] Hoonsik Min / Research Analyst / 82 2 3707 3761 / [email protected]
● We believe that a real restructuring in the China steel industry is happening led by banks’ credit tightening. Chinese government’s will for supply reform has never been as strong as it is currently given the plan is more detailed than in the past, and the targets have been repeatedly confirmed by multiple related authorities.
● Many of POSCO’s major consolidated subsidiaries appear to be currently passing through their cyclical/earnings bottoms in 2015-2016, while supply reform in China will help not only the parent POSCO but also most of its overseas subsidiaries.
● We also expect a notable decrease in POSCO’s net non-OP expense from W1.8 tn/W2.2 tn in 2014/15 to W1.0 tn/ W0.6 tn in 2016/17E, respectively. POSCO’s assets and balance sheet appear to have been fairly cleaned up as of end-2Q16 eventually.
● Reiterate Outperform. We believe POSCO currently offers an appealing risk-averse return. The stock’s compelling dividend yield and cheap valuation could minimize the downside risk, even if our positive view on steel margin outlook does not work. Full report.
Click here for detailed financials
A further drastic expansion of steel spread less likely in the near term. We expect steel spread in Asia to stay at around the current level for a while. Steel mills’ weak profitability, a lower inventory level, and a better-than-expected demand support the spread/margin outlook. On the other hand, a sharp rebound in steel production in China since March is likely to hinder any further expansion of the steel spread in the near term, while over-capacity issue still remains a key overhang on the industry.
Supply reform in China a key driver of mid-to-long-term margin outlook. We anticipate Chinese government’s supply reform plan to deliver a meaningful outcome over the next few years. It could work as a key driver for POSCO eventually by helping steel price/spread in
Asia. We believe that a real restructuring in China steel industry is happening this time led by banks’ credit tightening (Credit Suisse’s China materials team expects steel capacity shutdown of 150 mn t over 2016-18, equivalent to 14% of China’s current total capacity), while the Chinese government’s will for supply reform has never been as strong as it is currently.
Consolidated subsidiaries passing through the earnings bottom. We believe that many of POSCO’s major consolidated subsidiaries are currently passing through their cyclical/earnings bottoms in 2015-2016, even though a drastic turnaround is less likely in the near term. We anticipate the supply reform in China to help not only the parent POSCO but also most of its overseas subsidiaries, which are primarily into the steel business. On the other hand, a meaningful turnaround of its major subsidiaries in Korea, which are mostly non-steel companies, is likely to take more time.
Figure 1: POSCO—breakdown of operating profit and pre-tax profit (W bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
A notable decrease in non-OP expense 2H16 onwards. POSCO’s assets and balance sheet appear to have been fairly clean as of end-2Q16. We believe that POSCO’s sizable net non-operating losses in recent years had already peaked in 2014-15 and expect a notable decrease in its net non-OP expense from W1.8 tn/W2.2 tn in 2014/15 to W1.0 tn/W0.6 tn in 2016/17E, respectively.
Offering an appealing risk-averse return. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and TP of W280,000. While we continue to believe that steel spread in Asia has already seen its bottom in late 2015, the earnings improvement of major consolidated overseas subsidiaries and a notable decrease in its net non-operating expense from 2H16 onwards are additional positives. The stock’s appealing dividend yield (c.2.7% currently) and cheap valuation (2016E P/B of only 0.4x currently) could minimise any downside risk, even if our positive view on the steel margin outlook does not work.
Risks. Credit Suisse’s Economics team has lately revised down its forecast for Korea’s GDP growth for 2016-17E from 2.6%/2.9% to 2.4%/2.7%, indicating a continuing weak demand growth outlook in the domestic market. Meanwhile, a strengthening USD (if it happens) may put pressure on steel price outlook given the close inverse correlation between USD and steel price historically.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 14 July 2016.
Bbg/RIC 005490 KS / 005490.KS Rating (prev. rating) O (O) Shares outstanding (mn) 87.19 Daily trad vol - 6m avg (mn) 0.4 Daily trad val - 6m avg (US$ mn) 70.6 Free float (%) 83.9 Major shareholders Korea National
Pension - 10.0%
Price (13 Jul 16 , W) 227,000 TP (prev. TP W) 280,000 (280,000) Est. pot. % chg. to TP 23 52-wk range (W) 249000.0 - 156000.0 Mkt cap (W/US$ bn) 19,791.4/ 17.3
Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Limited ----------------- Upgrade to OUTPERFORM New report: Back to the long-term bull camp on Sunny EPS: ▲ TP: ▲ Sam Li / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6775 / [email protected] Pauline Chen / Research Analyst / 886 2 2715 6323 / [email protected] Kyna Wong / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6950 / [email protected]
● We move back to the bull camp on Sunny with a new TP of HK$32.5 for the secular up-cycles of optical applications in auto and smartphone markets. Our confidence on the LT growth potential now exceeds prior concerns on NT handset market headwinds and
valuation, and thus drives our upgrade on the stock. Full report. ● Three reasons for our view change: (1) The ADAS market is entering
a decade long content increase cycle, while Sunny could be a key beneficiary with its favourable position in the global vehicle lens market. (2) The emergence of multi-cam solutions, such as the dual-cam in 2016/17, on smartphone would help double TAM, in which Sunny is clearly a front-runner. (3) For NT, strong June shipment numbers could help increase market confidence on Sunny's executions and relieve concerns on its full-year shipment guidance.
● More dual-cam model launches, penetration into dual-cam lens supply chain, recovering monthly shipments, and SZ-HK-Connect are key NT catalysts.
● Our new TP of HK$32.5 (from 23.3) is now based on 20x ADAS upstream average P/E and 2H17/1H18 EPS.
Click here for detailed financials
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM for secular up-cycle
We move back to the bull camp on Sunny with a new TP of HK$32.5, for the secular up-cycles of optical applications in the auto and smartphone
markets. Our confidence on the LT growth potential now exceeds prior concerns on NT handset market headwinds and valuation, and thus drives our upgrade on the stock.
Three reasons for our view change
(1) We see the ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) market entering a decade long content increase cycle (Level 3/4 automations add semi content per car by US$300/450 vs Level 2), while Sunny could be a key beneficiary with its favorable position in the global vehicle lens market. (2) The emerge of multi-cam solutions, such as the dual-cam in 2016/17, on smartphone would help double the TAM for new applications on 3D/optical zooming/VR/AR, in which Sunny is clearly a front-runner. (3) For NT, strong June shipment numbers could help increase market confidence on Sunny's executions and relieve concerns on its full-year shipment guidance.
Catalysts
We see more dual-cam model launches, penetration into the dual-cam lens supply chain at key clients, recovering monthly shipment numbers, and SZ-HK-Connect as key NT catalysts.
Raise TP to HK$32.5
We cut 2016E EPS by 3% for NT headwinds but raise 2017/18E EPS by 1%/2% for the upsides in dual-cam/ADAS. New TP of HK$32.5 (from 23.3) is now based on 20x ADAS upstream average P/E and 2H17/1H18 EPS. Key downside risks: weakening China smartphone demand, pricing and margin pressure on competition, and slower-than-expected smartphone upgrades or ADAS adoptions.
Figure 1: Sunny's vehicle lens business in a secular up-cycle
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2025E 2030E
Vehicle lens rev enue, Rmb mn YoY
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Valuation metrics Rating TP Up/dn Div. yld ROE P/B Company Ticker (prev. Price Chg to TP Year EPS Chg(%) EPS EPS grth (%) P/E (x) (%) (%) (x)
rating) Local Target (%) (%) T T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+1
Note 1: ORD/ADR=10.00. Note 2: Headquartered in Zhejiang province and established in 1984, Sunny Optical is a leading China optical components maker and its product offerings include handset lens, vehicle lens and handset camera modules (HCM), etc.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ------------------------------- Maintain OUTPERFORM Outlook stays positive looking beyond short-term correction risks EPS: ◄► TP: ▲ Randy Abrams, CFA / Research Analyst / 886 2 2715 6366 / [email protected] Haas Liu / Research Analyst / 886 2 2715 6365 / [email protected]
● Results and guidance to be solid. TSMC should report solid 2Q results and 3Q guidance Thursday. Strong June sales of +11% MoM pushed 2Q +9% vs guidance for a 6-8% rise, and should lift GMs to the high end of 49-51% guidance. We lift 3Q16 from +10% to +15% on peak-season builds for Apple, China smartphones and graphics.
● A potential late-year correction following the strong builds. We model 4Q16 -10% QoQ, although 2016 is intact at 8% sales growth and 10% EPS growth, in line with the street. Management may flag potential for high inventory exiting 3Q16 to trigger softness in 4Q16.
● Modest sell-off possible during an adjustment. Since the financial crisis, TSMC has had five brief periods lagging the TAIEX during inventory adjustments, down 15% vs 10% for the TAIEX, raising the risk to monitor into 2H16 of a cooldown from the strong builds.
● Longer-term position remains intact. While we acknowledge the risk of another swift seasonal correction, we stay positive with its longer-term technology, profitability and yield intact. We roll over our target to 14x 2017E P/E, lifting TP from NT$177 to NT$185, and stay OUTPERFORM with 2016/17E EPS intact at NT$12.15/NT$13.20.
Click here for detailed financials
Results and guidance on Thursday to be solid TSMC should report solid 2Q results and 3Q guidance on Thursday. June sales were NT$81.4 bn, up 11% MoM, taking 2Q16 to NT$221.8 bn (+9.0% QoQ), above the guidance for a 6-8% increase on China smartphone builds and rising LTE in emerging markets as noted in our smartphone supply chain report. We also expect GMs at 50.7%, the high end of the 49-51% guidance, lifting CS EPS to NT$2.69 vs the street's NT$2.62. 3Q16 outlook to be strong, but 4Q16 may face some adjustments We raise TSMC's 3Q16 from +10% to +15% QoQ vs the street's 13.2%, ramping up 100% of Apple's a10 with InFO and catching up to
28nm demand from China smartphones, networking and graphics. GMs could rise to new cycle highs of 52-53% as high utilisation and improving 16nm yields are slightly offset by the initial InFO ramp-up. Off the high 3Q16, we now model 4Q16 down 10% QoQ, although keep our 2016 estimates intact at +8% sales growth and 10% EPS growth, in line with the street. Management may flag potential for high inventory exiting 3Q16 to trigger softness in 4Q16 (normal seasonal is -3% YoY). Semi inventory exited 1Q16 elevated at 84 days and total tech at 45 days.
Figure 1: Strong peak-season sales post 2008 have triggered a pullback
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-$100,000
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Revenue QoQ Growth
Sales (NT$) QoQ Change
Source: Credit Suisse estimates
A modest sell-off possible during an inventory correction While we stay positive on TSMC in the longer term—with competitive position staying intact and catalysts from rising dividend again in 2017, better Apple cycle in 2H17 and share gains on 7nm in 2018—we could face a short cyclical correction into a 4Q16 slowdown. Since the financial crisis, TSMC has had five corrections of 1-5 months' duration with its own stock declining 15% vs the TAIEX's -10% during the adjustments. The stock is vulnerable with QFII ownership at 78.8% (vs 78.9% all-time high) and at 34% of foreigners' Taiwan holdings (a 14-year high).
Figure 2: TSMC's decline of 15% vs 10% for the TAIEX during corrections
TSMC's intact looking past a late-year adjustment We maintain our 2016/17E EPS at NT$12.15/NT$13.20 but raise our target price from NT$177 to NT$185 as we roll over to 14x 2017E EPS and 3x 2017E P/B. Although a 4Q16 potential correction could dampen the stock price later in 3Q, we stay positive due to intact technology leadership, high margins, benign landscape, and rising cash yield.
Figure 3: CS above street for 2Q16/3Q16, factoring in a 4Q16 slowdown 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2015
(NT$ mn) CS CS(old) Street CS CS(old) Street CS CS(old) Street
Note 1: ORD/ADR=5.00. Note 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is principally engaged in the research, development, manufacture and distribution of integrated circuit (IC) related products. The company operates its businesses through wafer manufacture, mask production.
Westports Holdings ------------------------------- Initiating Coverage with UNDERPERFORM New report: Waiting for a better price Muzhafar Mukhtar, CFA / Research Analyst / 60 3 2723 2084 / [email protected] Amanda Foo / Research Assistant
● Initiating coverage with UNDERPERFORM, TP: RM3.70. Westports Holdings (WHB) operates a key gateway to Peninsular Malaysia and a leading ASEAN transhipment container hub, both of which are under a concession until 2054. Full report
● 2016-2017 throughput growth may remain healthy. But ongoing M&A activity, alliance shifts, sluggish economic growth, and a 30% rise in Straits of Malacca capacity may result in WHB's top-line growth disappointing from 2018.
● The stock's popularity has remained undented in recent months. WHB trades at 24x CY16F P/E vs peer averages of 16-18x; EV/EBITDA of 16x is similarly elevated (peer avg: 10-13x). Credit Suisse's HOLT® analysis also indicates the stock to be fully valued.
● This is a well-run business with a wide moat and strong long-term growth prospects, in our view. But the market is already pricing in uninterrupted growth; temporary disappointment may put premium valuations under pressure, and open up a longer-term opportunity. Risks: Throughput growth may remain healthy in 2017, partly due to one-off activity.
Click here for detailed financials
Initiating coverage on Westports Holdings (WHB; UNDERPERFORM, TP: RM3.70).
WHB develops and manages Westports under a concession expiring in 2054. Located along the Straits of Malacca (SoM), a key channel for global trade, Westports is the key gateway serving the Klang Valley hinterland, and one of the top ASEAN transhipment hubs. Container throughput contributes ~80% of gross profits with the remainder from conventional cargo (10%), marine services (6%), and rental income (4%), on our estimates. Transhipment drives 72% of container throughput, but only makes up 37% of gross profits, vs 43% for gateway containers, on our estimates. Conventional cargo is also gateway traffic, making ~53% of earnings geared to captive hinterland demand. Blessed
by geographical advantages, we think WHB enjoys an economic moat, of which its consistently high profitability and ROIC are symptomatic.
Figure 1: ~60% of earnings are captive on our estimates, but transhipment volumes up for competition with other SoM ports
Transhipment
container37%
Gateway container
43%
Conventional
10%
Marine6%
Rental4%
FY15E gross profit breakdown
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
2018 will be an interesting year
WHB has scope under the concession to expand capacity by 45%, supported by strong financial adequacy. Consensus estimates are pointing to 9% revenue and earnings CAGR by 2018 (from 2015), whilst the stock price implies a terminal growth rate of 4% beyond that. However, there is scope for temporary disappointment. Sluggish economic growth may affect gateway and transhipment volume growth. SoM capacity will grow ~30% by 2018, due to expansion at all three major ports, which will help keep a lid on transhipment tariffs. Recent M&A activity and shifts in alliances open up the possibility of losing some throughput on a net basis to PSA, though we think it is too early to tell if the net impact will be negative. There is certainly scope for a neutral outcome, but this seems to already be priced in. In the worst case scenario, throughput growth may only be affected in 2018, but the market may well react ahead of that.
Pricing in immunity
WHB trades at 24x CY16F P/E vs peer averages of 16-18x; EV/EBITDA of 16x is similarly elevated (peer avg: 10-13x). Credit Suisse's HOLT® analysis also suggests the stock is being fully valued. Admittedly, good quality Malaysian businesses tend to suffer from high valuations due to captive and growing domestic funds, which may be exacerbated in the case of Shariah compliant stocks. We think WHB is a great business, but the stock is already pricing in no impact from the network realignments following M&A and alliance shifts. High multiples and risks for potential disappointments (even temporary ones) rarely make for good bedfellows. Having said that, our view is a short-term one, relative to the investment horizon used by port operators themselves; any net loss of throughput should simply be seen as a delay for WHB's achievement of its full potential earnings, in our view. We would see any significant adverse stock price reaction as a longer term opportunity, considering the quality of the business. Our TP of RM3.70 is based on a 10% discount to our DCF-derived value using 7% WACC, 5% throughput CAGR, and full capacity expansion allowed under the concession.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 12 July 2016.
Bbg/RIC WPRTS MK / WPHB.KL Rating (prev. rating) U (NA) Shares outstanding (mn) 3,410.00 Daily trad vol - 6m avg (mn) 2.9 Daily trad val - 6m avg (US$ mn) 3.0 Free float (%) 52.0 Major shareholders Pembinaan Redzai,
Hutchison Port Holdings
Price (08 Jul 16 , RM) 4.24 TP (prev. TP RM) 3.70 (NA) Est. pot. % chg. to TP (13) 52-wk range (RM) 4.43 - 3.79 Mkt cap (RM/US$ mn) 14,458.4/ 3,587.7
Yahoo Japan ---------------------------------------------- Initiating Coverage with OUTPERFORM Earnings momentum at turning point; shift from forward investment to profit expansion Keiichi Yoneshima / Research Analyst / 81 3 4550 9740 / [email protected]
● We initiate coverage on Yahoo Japan with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of ¥600 (potential return 34.8%). We believe earnings momentum is at a turning point and will prove to be a positive for the share price. Click here for full report.
● We expect positive earnings impacts from the company's E-commerce Revolution strategy owing to: (1) sales promotion expenses peaking out, (2) higher shopping-related advertising along with growth in gross platform sales, and (3) revision of auction and membership fees.
● As we believe earnings momentum is at a favorable turning point, we rate the stock OUTPERFORM. Risks include growth in PC and smartphone advertising revenue (improvement/deterioration), less favorable supply/demand for company stock due to disposal by Yahoo! Inc. in the US, and changes in strategy by parent Softbank resulting in lower earnings.
● Our ¥600 target price is based on DCF. We forecast cash flow through FY3/20 and apply an EBITDA of 12x to calculate EV for FY3/21 onward. We use a WACC of 8.45%.
Click here for detailed financials
The company’s E-Commerce Revolution strategy, unveiled in October 2013, entails growth in total platform sales even at the expense of margins. In FY3/16, the consolidation of Askul (one-off gain of ¥59.7bn in 2Q) provided a temporary earnings boost to nominal profits. However, real profits are struggling, reflecting marketing expenses in the shopping and credit card businesses plus weak advertising growth amid the shift to smartphones.
Starting in 2016, we expect earnings to benefit from upfront investment in the shopping business peaking out coupled with revisions to auction fees, premium membership fees and rebate point costs for member stores. We expect real earnings momentum to rebound in FY3/17, so we think earnings and the share price are at a turning point. We are focusing on the items below in particular.
(1) Cost efficiencies: expect margins to improve due to sales promotion expenses peaking out.
(2) E-commerce Revolution strategy starting to bear fruit; shopping-related advertising starting to take off.
(3) Getting serious about membership businesses; higher auction and premium membership fees are boosting earnings.
Figure 1: Shopping-related transaction value
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 2: Shopping-related advertising revenue
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Reasons for our OUTPERFORM rating
● The monetisation of the company’s E-Commerce Revolution strategy is in mid-stream, but sales promotion expenses peaked in FY3/16, and we expect this to support improvement in Yahoo! Shopping earnings. (Positive)
● We expect revision of fees for Yahoo! Auction (higher revenue), a higher T-point expense burden on merchants (lower expenses), and the revision of Yahoo! Premium fees (higher revenue) to benefit earnings. (Positive)
● The P/E looks inexpensive among major Internet services companies (Yahoo Japan, Rakuten, Recruit Holdings).
● Although search advertising continues to decline, we expect in-feed advertising and shopping advertising to grow (from Negative to Neutral).
● Yahoo! Inc.'s plans for its Yahoo Japan stake are unclear, but even assuming it sells the shares, we believe negative share price impact can be absorbed via buybacks.
● A change of strategy by parent company Softbank could affect Yahoo Japan's strategy and capital structure. At present relations look positive.
(This is an extract from Keiichi Yoneshima's report "Yahoo Japan: Initiating at OUTPERFORM; earnings momentum at turning point; shift from forward investment to profit expansion," published on 7 July 2016. For the full report, please visit our CS Plus website.)
Note 1: ORD/ADR=2.00. Note 2: Yahoo Japan provides a variety of information content on its web site such as news, shopping, map, finance, and entertainment. The Company provides services including Internet search engine, broadband Internet, online auction, and Internet advertising.
Notes: — Credit Suisse and consensus net profits and EPS are based on full year forecasts, — This calendar excludes stocks with market cap less than US$500 mn
— The date of release for stocks listed in US are based on HK date and time, all other stocks are based on the date & time of the listed exchange
* Confirmed dates but are subject to change, (E) = estimated date
Positive surprise, Negative surprise. Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service., Company data, Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates.
Ju
mp
-Sta
rt 4
2
14 J
un
e 2
016
Results reported 2 Jun - 8 Jun 2016 (stocks with market cap > US$3 bn) % chg in CS % chg in
% Consensus Consensus cons. EPS CS CS EPS
Date of Price ($) upside / Reported YoY QoQ EPS EPS EPS post pre- EPS post
Results Period Company Ctry Sector Bberg Rating Ccy 13 Jun Target downside Ccy EPS (%) (%) pre-results 13 Jun results results 13 Jun results
Jul-11 2017Q1 IndusInd Bank IN Banks IIB IN O INR 1,104 1,301 17.8 INR Q1 n.a n.a n.a 49.75 49.91 0.3 51.41 49.72 (3.3)
India Automobiles Sector – Mind the (regulatory) gap Jatin Chawla 13 Jul
Japan Analysts’ name Date
Yahoo Japan – Initiating at OUTPERFORM; earnings momentum at turning point; shift from forward investment
to profit expansion
Keiichi Yoneshima 7 Jul
GMO Internet – Initiate at OUTPERFORM: looks undervalued; improved earnings structure at domain business
a potential catalyst
Keiichi Yoneshima 12 Jul
Malaysia Analysts’ name Date
Westports Holdings – Waiting for a better price Muzhafar Mukhtar 11 Jul
Pakistan Analysts’ name Date
Engro Corporation Ltd – Assessing the impact of recent divestments Farhan Rizvi 11 Jul
South Korea Analysts’ name Date
NCSOFT – Late to the party... Eric Cha 13 Jul
POSCO – Supply reform in China real this time Minseok Sinn 13 Jul
Taiwan Analysts’ name Date
Taiwan Components Sector – June sales review: Apple supply chain disappointed Pauline Chen 11 Jul
Taiwan Chemicals Sector – 2Q16 results beat; FPCC is retained as our top pick; upgrading FCFC to an
OUTPERFORM
Jeremy Chen 12 Jul
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 89
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
The analysts identified in this report each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non -Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, the expected total return (ETR) calculation includes 12 -month rolling dividend yield. An Outperform rating is assigned where an ETR is greater than or equal to 7.5%; Underperform where an ETR less than or equal to 5%. A Neutral may be assigned where the ETR is between -5% and 15%. The overlapping rating range allows analysts to assign a rating that puts ETR in the context of associated risks. Prior to 18 May 2015, ETR ranges for Outperform and Underperform ratings did not overlap with Neutral thresholds between 15% and 7.5%, which was in operation from 7 July 2011.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Not Rated : Credit Suisse Equity Research does not have an investment rating or view on the stock or any other securities related to the company at this time.
Not Covered (NC) : Credit Suisse Equity Research does not provide ongoing coverage of the company or offer an investment rating or investment view on the equity security of the company or related products.
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.
*An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 51% (41% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 36% (17% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 13% (38% banking clients)
Restricted 0%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, an d Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdin gs, and other individual factors.
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 90
Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to Credit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research-and-analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html
Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
For a history of recommendations for the subject company(ies) featured in this report, disseminated within the past 12 months, please refer to https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures/view/report?i=76283&v=-3j380awoblobev0f1mwq2ybhg .
Important Regional Disclosures
Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report.
The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report may participate in events hosted by the subject company, including site visits. Credit Suisse does not accept or permit analysts to accept payment or reimbursement for travel expenses associated with these events.
Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares.
Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.
For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit https://www.credit-suisse.com/sites/disclaimers-ib/en/canada-research-policy.html.
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report.
Principal is not guaranteed in the case of equities because equity prices are variable.
Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that.
Please find the full reports, including disclosure information, on Credit Suisse's Research and Analytics Website (http://www.researchandanalytics.com)
Important MSCI Disclosures
The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, re-disseminated or used to create and financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates.
The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by Credit Suisse.
Important Credit Suisse HOLT Disclosures
With respect to the analysis in this report based on the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report.
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. The adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur.
Additional information about the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request.
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variable may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur.
CFROI®, HOLT, HOLTfolio, ValueSearch, AggreGator, Signal Flag and “Powered by HOLT” are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or registered service marks of Credit Suisse or its affiliates in the United States and other countries. HOLT is a corporate performance and valuation advisory service of Credit Suisse.
For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
14 July 2016
Jump-Start 92
This report is produced by subsidiaries and affiliates of Credit Suisse operating under its Global Markets Division. For more information on our structure, please use the following link: https://www.credit-suisse.com/who-we-are This report may contain material that is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Credit Suisse or its affiliates ("CS") to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to CS. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of CS. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of CS or its affiliates.The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. CS may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. CS will not treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. CS does not advise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note in particular that the bases and levels of taxation may change. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by CS to be reliable, but CS makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. CS accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CS. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. CS may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those communications reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and CS is under no obligation to ensure that such other communications are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some investments referred to in this report will be offered solely by a single entity and in the case of some investments solely by CS, or an associate of CS or CS may be the only market maker in such investments. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by CS and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADR's, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. Some investments discussed in this report may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is realised. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, you may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that income yield. Some investments may not be readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realise those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of CS, CS has not reviewed any such site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to CS's own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of any such website does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this report or CS's website shall be at your own risk. This report is issued and distributed in European Union (except Switzerland): by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, England, which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Germany: Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main regulated by the Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht ("BaFin"). United States and Canada: Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC; Switzerland: Credit Suisse AG; Brazil: Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse (Brasil) S.A or its affiliates; Mexico: Banco Credit Suisse (México), S.A. (transactions related to the securities mentioned in this report will only be effected in compliance with applicable regulation); Japan: by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited, Financial Instruments Firm, Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau ( Kinsho) No. 66, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association; Hong Kong: Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited; Australia: Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited; Thailand: Credit Suisse Securities (Thailand) Limited, regulated by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand, having registered address at 990 Abdulrahim Place, 27th Floor, Unit 2701, Rama IV Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok10500, Thailand, Tel. +66 2614 6000; Malaysia: Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch; India: Credit Suisse Securities (India) Private Limited (CIN no.U67120MH1996PTC104392) regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as Research Analyst (registration no. INH 000001030) and as Stock Broker (registration no. INB230970637; INF230970637; INB010970631; INF010970631), having registered address at 9th Floor, Ceejay House, Dr.A.B. Road, Worli, Mumbai - 18,
Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which investment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments. When you purchase non-listed Japanese fixed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporate bonds) from CS as a seller, you will be requested to pay the purchase price only.